August 1, 2021

The Pony Conductor

Give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day, Give a man a pony and he'll eat for a lifetime

The Conductor’s Pennsylvania Derby Preview

3 min read

September 22, 2018 : McKinzie, ridden by jockey Mike Smith, wins the Pennsylvania Derby on Pennsylvania Derby Day at Parx Casino and Racecourse on September 22, 2018 in Bensalem, Pennsylvania Scott Serio/Eclipse Sportswire/CSM

The Pennsylvania Derby has drawn for Saturday and it is a hell of a race despite only 7 contenders. This is the best 3-year old race since the Derby and the winner will likely be the leader of the crop moving forward. Let’s see if the Conductor can help us passengers solve this puzzle.

#1 Math Wizard (8/1) – This colt is the only closer in the field and looks to get a nice trip with a hot pace in front of him. He will likely go off at a higher price and the Conductor can see him clunking up to get into the trifecta. He’s not good enough to win, but the Conductor thinks he’ll offer value underneath.

#2 Improbable (3/1) – This colt is very talented and was very impressive in his return to the races last time. His immaturity is still a concern, as he fought Van Dyke the entire first half of the Shared Belief Stakes. However, he still cut out hot fractions and won with ease. The Conductor doesn’t think we’ve seen the best of this boy yet and he’ll be one of the two runners he uses on top in this one.

#3 Shanghai Superfly (30/1) – The only runner with no business being in the race. Draw a line thru him and treat him as a scratch.

#4 War of Will (5/1) – The Conductor is against the Preakness winner in here and thinks he’s going in the wrong direction. To his credit he’s shown up in every big race, but his last two efforts have been disappointing. The Conductor thinks his campaign has taken his best out of him and you won’t find him anywhere on the Conductor’s tickets.

#5 Spun to Run (8/1) – This Colt is steadily progressing, and the Conductor really liked his win last time in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx. He split horses nicely and the race came back very fast on paper.  It’s a very tough ask for him to beat this field, but the Conductor will use him underneath in the exacta and tri.

#6 Mr. Money (4/1) – The Conductor has been a fan of this colt since he won him a nice lump of gold in the Pat Day Mile at 7/1 on Derby Day. Since then, he’s done nothing but blow away his competition. He’s stepping up against the big boys today, but the Conductor thinks he can answer the bell. His last work at Churchill could not have looked better. He’s the other contender the Conductor will use on top.

#7 Maximum Security (9/5) – The Conductor’s nemesis Maximum Security. How many times will he try to beat this boy? Well, at least one more time. The Conductor thinks he’ll go off at an even shorter price and he will get a lot of pace pressure in here. The Conductor will use him in 2nd and 3rd because he’s not a complete idiot, but he’ll make him look him in the eye and beat him one more round. Let’s go big boy, the Conductor didn’t here no bell.

 

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