December 2, 2020

The Pony Conductor

Give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day, Give a man a pony and he'll eat for a lifetime

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Picks and Analysis

3 min read

The posts have been the drawn, stew poured, and its time to go to work. The Conductor will finalize his picks the day of, but this is how he sees it initially.

Friday, November 6 – Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

#1 Mighty Gurkha (IRE) (20/1) – This colt hasn’t won on turf and the Conductor’s against the Europeans in this race in general. With a tough draw you can have him.

#2 Windy City Red (30/1) – He ran decent last time and was stuck behind horses in the stretch. He finished well, but the Conductor thinks this group is too tough.

#3 Lipizzaner (20/1) – The Conductor likes his European Form better than the #1, but doesn’t think he’s good enough.

#4 County Final (15/1) – This colt has strong early pace figures and the shorter distance will help, but the Conductor isn’t sure the Futurity was a particularly strong race. He’s leaning toward tossing all those runners here.

#5 Cowan (8/1) – He ran a very good race last time over this turf course, he was gaining on the runaway leader. With two bullet works coming in, he’s a contender.

#6 Ubettabelieveit (IRE) (20/1) – The Conductor already told you he doesn’t believe in the Euro’s sprinting.

#7 Momos (15/1) – Of the runners exiting the Futurity the Conductor likes him the best. He was game on the inside and didn’t give up 3rd while against the flow. He’ll be a big price and will be better at 5 ½ furlongs.

#8 Amanzi Yimpilo (IRE) (15/1) – She was game to hold on after pressing a quick pace last time, but the Conductor doesn’t think the Speakeasy stakes was particularly strong. This is a big step up in class.

#9 After Five (6/1) – He was rolling late last time, but he was aided with by the race flow. The shorter distance today won’t help and the Conductor will be against him if he’s that price. He’ll be rolling late but won’t get their time.

#10 Bodenheimer (8/1) – His early speed makes him tough to ignore. The Conductor doesn’t think he’ll get as easy of a lead as he did last time, but he is dangerous.

#11 Into the Sunrise (15/1) – This colt has the Conductor’s brain in a pretzel at the moment. He doesn’t usually like the cutback on turf as much as he does the dirt. However, he’s run well against classy competition and has the early pace figures to put himself in a good spot. The more the Conductor looks at it, the more he thinks he’s sneaky.

*#12 Dirty Dangle (20/1) – This is the Conductor’s favorite price. She was so professional in her win up at Woodbine last time. Showed early speed, took back behind the frontrunners, waited patiently and when she found room skipped by them like they were standing still.

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#13 Second of July (8/1) – He’s 2/2 and has won at big odds in his first two career starts. He got a favorable trip last time and with a tough post the Conductor is leaning toward fading him.

#14 Golden Pal (8/5) – This colt is a deserving favorite and his last race at Saratoga was ultra-impressive. He’s got early gas which makes the post more tolerable, but he still may be hung wide with speed to his inside. He’ll have to earn it at a small price.

Picks: 12 – 14 – 5 – 11

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