August 1, 2021

The Pony Conductor

Give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day, Give a man a pony and he'll eat for a lifetime

Breeders’ Cup Classic Picks and Analysis

3 min read

Saturday, November 7 – Race 12: 1 ¼ G1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic

#1 Tacitus (20/1) – The granddaddy of them all and a more competitive Classic than we’ve seen in recent years. There are many with a chance in here and this colt isn’t one of them. However, he is a consistent runner and they’ll likely go back to taking him off the pace today. Everyone hates this horse because he’s cost them money, but if he’s really that price the Conductor will use him in 3rd. He can see a scenario where he grinds away while the others try to win the race and picks up the bronze at a big number.

#2 Tiz the Law (3/1) – This colt has the most upside in the field. He got turned away in the derby, but he’s had some time to rest and can still improve. If you watch his Travers again, he never even takes it out of 2nd gear. That being said, there are some serious older racehorses in here and the Conductor will only use him as a backup.

#3 By My Standards (10/1) – This colt always runs his race, he’s just not as good as Improbable and Tom’s d’Etat. The Conductor can’t see a scenario where he jumps up to beat them here.

#4 Tom’s d’Etat (6/1) – Every passenger and their mother are picking this horse, so he may be more in the 9/2 range. The Conductor understands the hype as the stumble cost him the race last time and he ran a huge late pace figure. However, a stumble as a 7-year-old is a sign of going off form, which is likely why connections have trained him up to this race. He’s going to have to run his A+ race to win in here and the Conductor thinks that’s a tough ask.

#5 Title Ready (30/1) – He’ll drop to the back and try to make one run to pick up 3rd, but he’s not getting ready for any title.

#6 Higher Power (20/1) – He’ll need god to come down to his stall tonight for him to be competitive.

#7 Global Campaign (20/1) – This colt is improving this year, but that’s with him being on the early lead. He has a 0% chance of getting the lead in this race.

*#8 Improbable (5/2) – The Conductor thinks we’re going to get 3/1 in here as he’s not getting the respect he deserves. He’s turned into a real racehorse this year and most importantly the Ductor sees him getting a nice trip in this race. Authentic and Maximum Security will get sent from his outside and he’ll be able to get the outside stalking trip that he loves. He’ll be in the clear and ready to pounce whenever he pleases. He’s the one to beat.

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#9 Authentic (6/1) – This colt still has the Conductor’s brain in a pretzel. There really isn’t a ton of other speed in here other than Maximum Security and they’re both trained by Baffert. They won’t duel which will help his chances, but this feels like a bounce spot for him and he’ll have to run even better taking on older horses for the first time. The Conductor is going to watch how Swiss Skydiver fairs in the Distaff before he makes his final judgement. For now, he’s leaning against.

#10 Maximum Security (7/2) – The Conductor is going to toss him from the exacta. Improbable dusted him last time and the Conductor can’t see him turning the tables. He’ll be heavily bet because of his fame, but he’s going in the wrong direction.

Picks: 8 

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