December 5, 2021

The Pony Conductor

Give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day, Give a man a pony and he'll eat for a lifetime

Kentucky Derby Day Key Horses

3 min read

Friday and Saturday can’t come soon enough. Load up the caboose! Skip!

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.G1 Derby City Distaff Stakes

#4 Gamine (1/5) – As the lone speed, not a good betting race.

Race 8: 1 Mile. G2 Pat Day Mile Stakes

#8 Dream Shake (7/2) – He’s run well in the strongest Derby prep races. Cutting back to a mile, the Conductor will lean on him hard.

#4 Defunded (6/1) – He ran better than it looks behind Dream Shake last time with a patented wide trip by Mike Smith. Although the pace was quick, the race flow favored the frontrunners and he made a nice middle move. Blinkers off, Irad and Baffert, he could take a big step forward.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) G2 American Turf Stakes

#13 Scarlett Sky (4/1) – This race looks to set up for a closer and this colt has the best late kick of the bunch. His win in the Transylvania was very impressive.

#6 Royale Prince (12/1) – He continues to steadily progress and now steps up in class for the always dangerous Cox barn. He looks to get a good trip and the Conductor sees him running a top effort.

#10 Next (20/1) – After showing ability on dirt last fall, connections thrust him into the BC Juvenile where he still hasn’t finished. Making his first start as a 3 year old here, he’s working well for strong Ward and gets back to the surface he’s bred for. His lone turf start last year was a nice win sprinting and he’s proven he can get the distance on dirt. At a big price, the Conductor likes his upside.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. G1 Churchill Downs Stakes

#5 Tap It To Win (8/1) – This race is wide open in the Conductor’s opinion and doesn’t have a ton of early pace for a sprint. The Conductor liked his prep off the bench last time where he easily took care of business. He can but himself in a great position early and work out a nice trip.

#3 Basin (8/1) – Making his 2nd start as a 4 year old, this colt is back to sprinting where he’s best. He’s still progressing and has yet to run a bad race at 6 or 7 furlongs. He ran well on the Derby trail last year despite the distances being to far.

#8 Get the Prize (20/1) – Stepping up in class big time after winning at Keeneland, this horse will likely be the leader early. He’s on the improve and if he can get away with moderate fractions he’s dangerous.

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) G1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes

#5 Domestic Spending (9/2) – You can make a case for almost every runner in this group, but the Conductor will lean on this gelding. Making his first start at 4, he ran monster races last year closing into slow paces.

#4 Ivar (5/1) – His win in the Shadwell Turf Mile last year was the best performance this field has in the Conductor’s opinion. He should like the added distance as well.

Kentucky Derby Horse By Horse Breakdown will be up later today.

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