September 18, 2021

The Pony Conductor

Give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day, Give a man a pony and he'll eat for a lifetime

Kentucky Derby Breakdown

3 min read

Race 12: 1 1/4 G1 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve

*#15 Rock Your World (5/1) – His Santa Anita Derby was the most impressive prep for the Ductor. Watching all of his races, this colt really finishes strong and gallops out massive. He doesn’t need the lead and the Conductor thinks he’s the most talented runner in the field.

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*#12 Helium (50/1) – This is the bomb the Conductor likes most in here and his key in the superfecta. Please watch his Tampa Bay Derby win. Was it the toughest field? No, but he had no business winning that race with that trip. He’s lightly raced, has room to step forward and has proven he can handle adversity where all these others haven’t. All the other prep winners have gotten favorable trips.

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Other Win Contenders:

#8 Medina Spirit (15/1) – He never looked comfortable in the Santa Anita Derby grinding away in the 3 path. He never quit to get 2nd and the Conductor thinks Baffert is going to send him to the front early, where he’s runs his best.

#9 Hot Rod Charlie (8/1) – He was very game in his win in the Louisiana Derby and he has a solid foundation from last year. He has the talent to step forward and win his race.

#14 Essential Quality (2/1) – He’s tough to knock, but the Conductor will only be using him in 2nd and 3rd. He’ll be the heavy favorite, but he hasn’t improved much from last year. He’ll run his race.

#1 Known Agenda (6/1) – He’s turned into a new animal with blinkers, but the Conductor sees him as an underlay here. He got a favorable trip in a weak Florida Derby and will be over bet. The Conductor won’t use him on top.

Trifecta/Superfecta Prices to include:

#4 Keepmeinmind (50/1) – He hasn’t had any pace to run at in his two races this year. Taking the blinkers off an working well, he’s lit up the trifecta before.

*#6 O Besos (20/1) – He finished very well and galloped out past Hot Rod Charlie in the Louisiana Derby. He split horses on the inside and may have threatened to win with a cleaner trip. The Conductor will use him up to 2nd.

#13 Hidden Stash (50/1) – He was up against the pace scenario last time in the Blue Grass, but still finished well. He could clunk up for 4th at a huge number.

#16 King Fury (20/1) – His win last time may have been pace and slop aided, but it was still a strong effort and he flashed talent last year. Making his 2nd start as a 3 year old, he could take a big step forward here.

*#18 Super Stock (30/1) – He pulled a major upset in the Arkansas Derby and will be completely ignored at the windows. He got a perfect ride and trip that day, but he still beat very talented runners in Concert Tour and Cado River. He’ll get pace again to run at here and the Ductor will use him in some exactas.

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