Ponies

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

Not a great Thursday for the Conductor, but that’s why there is Friday. This is by far the best betting card at Belmont thus far this week. Don’t think, just keep throwing. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 25000n3L

#2 Promise Me Roses (8/1) – You passengers don’t want roses, you just want the cash.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 32000

#6 Shimmering Moon (7/2) – 2nd off the layoff today, she made an early move into a hot pace last start. She’ll be ready to roll here.

Race 3: 7 Furlongs. S.Bertram F. Bongard Stakes 150k

#2 Cleaon Jones (9/2) – He’s the best closer in the race and he should get a perfect trip with a hot pace to run at. The Conductor will key him in the exacta.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 77000n1x

#7 Restructure (2/1) – She’s very logical.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) OC 622500n2x

#11 Aquaphobia (6/1) – 3rd off the layoff, he ran a strong late pace figure closing into a slow pace last time. With plenty of speed in this one, he should have every opportunity.

Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 75k

#3 Comic (4/1) – This filly is posting bullet works and trainer Rodolphe Brisset is 21% with a +$0.54 ROI this year with 2nd time starters. Jose Ortiz stays aboard as well.

Race 7: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) OC 100000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Devamani (9/2) – He got absolutely no pace to run at last time and has the best last kick in this group. He also gets back to his favorite distance today. The Conductor will hammer him at that morning line.

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Race 8: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) S.Mdn 62k

Underneath Uppercut #4 Imperio D (15/1) – This colt showed good early speed in his debut in a race taken off the turf. The Conductor sees him taking a big step forward on the lawn, where Rudy Rod wanted him to start. He will key him in the exacta and tri.

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Sports

The Conductor’s Thursday Night Football Play

Tennessee -1.5 @ Jacksonville

Nothing like another puke worthy AFC South Thursday Night Football game, but that doesn’t mean we can’t make some money. Jacksonville is in turmoil, Coach Doug Marrone and Jalen Ramsey arguing on the sideline and have a backup QB who is more sizzle than steak. The Titans smashed the Browns in week 1 and lost a tough one to the Colts last week.

Marriota stinks and Vegas is holding firm on the 1.5 line even though 70% of the money is on the Titans. The Conductor would normally take the home team, but the Conductor hasn’t been impressed by the Jacksonville defense and likes Vrabel as a coach. The Titans are the better team and the Conductor will hate watch this gross game as the Titans win 16-10.

Lunch Money Play

Tennesse -1.5

tennessee titans GIF by NFL

Ponies, Videos

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

Descent start to the racing week yesterday, now we need to keep up the momentum. The Conductor likes some prices today, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: Hurdle Race

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. MC 25000

#5 Later Cat (3/5) – Chalk

Race 3: 7 Furlongs. Clm 25000n3L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Booby Trap (12/1) – 3rd off the layoff and dropping in class, this gelding has the most upside in a field of runners who don’t like to win races. He should be forwardly placed in a race without much pace and that will give him a chance at an upset.

Image result for booby trap gif

Race 4: 1 ¼ Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Mdn 90k

#2 Whatdoesasharksay (3/1) – This filly is steadily progressing, and her running style suggests the longer the better.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn75k

#8 Myfirstexwife (8/1) – Trainer Jorge Abreu is 23% with a +$1.53 ROI with 1st time starters this year. The Conductor likes this filly’s breeding, work tab and that Jose takes the mount.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. S.OC 40000n2x

1/1A Entry (8/5) – The Linda Rice entry looks tough to beat.

Race 7: 1 ¼ Mile. (Turf) OC 30000n2x

#10 Value Engineering (5/2) – The Conductor has to give Chad one today.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 62k

#5 Shyza (6/1) – Switching from dirt to turf and stretching out for the first time, this filly has the grass in her pedigree. Rosario hops aboard and trainer John Servis is very adept with runners going from a sprint to a route.

Ponies

Wind Pipe Whack Wednesday: The Conductor’s Spot Plays at Belmont Park

Aim small, miss small. Let’s Ride. The Conductor’s Wednesday Preview at Belmont Park

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. MC 62500

#8 O’Bushido (5/1) – Win

Daily Double: 5,8 / 1

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) S.Alw 66000n1x

#8 Bourbon Mission (3/1) – Win

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 62k

*Gullet Shot of the Day – Win #1 Theitalianamerican (5/1)

2 chainz magic GIF by MOST EXPENSIVEST

Ponies

Maximum Security Scratched From the Pennsylvania Derby

The news broke last night that Maximum Security is out of the Pennsylvania Derby due to a colon issue. Since this ruined the Conductor’s betting strategy in the big race on Saturday, he has to make a few adjustments to his original plans: The Conductor’s Pennsylvania Derby Preview

With now only a six horse field, the Conductor can’t use both Mr. Money and Improbable on top and get any value. After watching the tape a few more times, he’s going to single Improbable.  It takes a very talented horse to exert that much wasted energy early in a race and still win easily like he did last time. This will be the race where Improbable shows what he’s capable of and Baffert will be laughing all the way to the bank.

Image result for ashley schaeffer gif

Ponies, Videos

The Conductor’s Pennsylvania Derby Preview

The Pennsylvania Derby has drawn for Saturday and it is a hell of a race despite only 7 contenders. This is the best 3-year old race since the Derby and the winner will likely be the leader of the crop moving forward. Let’s see if the Conductor can help us passengers solve this puzzle.

#1 Math Wizard (8/1) – This colt is the only closer in the field and looks to get a nice trip with a hot pace in front of him. He will likely go off at a higher price and the Conductor can see him clunking up to get into the trifecta. He’s not good enough to win, but the Conductor thinks he’ll offer value underneath.

#2 Improbable (3/1) – This colt is very talented and was very impressive in his return to the races last time. His immaturity is still a concern, as he fought Van Dyke the entire first half of the Shared Belief Stakes. However, he still cut out hot fractions and won with ease. The Conductor doesn’t think we’ve seen the best of this boy yet and he’ll be one of the two runners he uses on top in this one.

#3 Shanghai Superfly (30/1) – The only runner with no business being in the race. Draw a line thru him and treat him as a scratch.

#4 War of Will (5/1) – The Conductor is against the Preakness winner in here and thinks he’s going in the wrong direction. To his credit he’s shown up in every big race, but his last two efforts have been disappointing. The Conductor thinks his campaign has taken his best out of him and you won’t find him anywhere on the Conductor’s tickets.

#5 Spun to Run (8/1) – This Colt is steadily progressing, and the Conductor really liked his win last time in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx. He split horses nicely and the race came back very fast on paper.  It’s a very tough ask for him to beat this field, but the Conductor will use him underneath in the exacta and tri.

#6 Mr. Money (4/1) – The Conductor has been a fan of this colt since he won him a nice lump of gold in the Pat Day Mile at 7/1 on Derby Day. Since then, he’s done nothing but blow away his competition. He’s stepping up against the big boys today, but the Conductor thinks he can answer the bell. His last work at Churchill could not have looked better. He’s the other contender the Conductor will use on top.

#7 Maximum Security (9/5) – The Conductor’s nemesis Maximum Security. How many times will he try to beat this boy? Well, at least one more time. The Conductor thinks he’ll go off at an even shorter price and he will get a lot of pace pressure in here. The Conductor will use him in 2nd and 3rd because he’s not a complete idiot, but he’ll make him look him in the eye and beat him one more round. Let’s go big boy, the Conductor didn’t here no bell.

 

Sports

The Conductor’s NFL Week 2 Recap and Monday Night Preview

Week 2 is in the books and luckily the Bears pulled out a push for the Conductor with a last second field goal to beat the Broncos by 2 yesterday. Otherwise the Conductor would have put his train up for sale today to protect his knee caps. With two weeks of capping and game tape in the books, the Conductor has learned a few things.

  1. Every team in the NFL is mediocre or bad besides the Patriots and the Chiefs. Watching the 4:00 games yesterday made his eyes bleed. There is so much bad football being played and heinous quarter back play is rampant.
  2. Speaking of QB’s – Eli Manning, Kirk Cousins, Joe Flacco, Cam Newton and Matt Ryan are all veteran QB’s who will not be backed with a cent of the Conductor’s money under any circumstance until proven otherwise. Eli and Flacco may even be auto bet against’s for the Conductor as long as they remain in the league.
  3. You should not go to the bars two hours before the 1:00pm games when you are going to be drinking stew thru the Sunday night game.

#3 is up for debate.

Tonight’s matchup is a tough one from a gambling perspective.

Cleveland Browns -6.5 @ New York Jets

Cleveland goes into NY after a disappointing week 1 performance and take on the Jets with Trevor Siemian under center. The Jets offense already looked inept with Darnold last week, but the Conductor doesn’t see much of a drop off with Siemian. The Browns have a significant talent edge on offense, but what have they proven? Nothing yet.

All the passengers are on the Browns. 75% of the public are backing the Baker and Odell hype train. The Conductor hates the bet, but he’s not going to back a 6.5 point favorite on the road who lost by 30 last week.  Backing the Jets is gross, however the Conductor is a man of principle.

Lunch Money Play:

Jets +6.5

Image result for jets fan gif

Ponies

The Conductor’s Wednesday Preview at Belmont Park

The Conductor isn’t thrilled with Wednesday’s card. Looks like a chalk fest.

Race 1: Hurdle Race

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. MC 62500

#8 O’Bushido (5/1) – This colt went off favored vs a tougher field in his debut at Saratoga. The Conductor thinks there is more under the hood than he showed.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Alw 77000n1x

#1 Off Topic (6/5) – 3rd off the layoff, this filly has been running well vs miles tougher. She’ll get the job done on the class drop.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.Clm 35000n3L

#8 Golconda (1/1) – Dropping to the claiming ranks for the 1st time, Servis is red hot this meet. Shocker.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) S.Mdn 62k

#5 Klickitat (7/2) – Making his 3rd start this year and 1st time with Lasix, the Conductor likes his bullet work and sees him taking a beg step forward.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) S.Alw 66000n1x

#8 Bourbon Mission (3/1) – This gelding didn’t get any pace to run at an ran a strong late pace figure last time. He should get a better setup in this one and will appreciate the extra ½ furlong.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.S.Joseph Gimma Stakes 150k

#6 Fierce Lady (7/5) – This lady is tough as nails.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 62k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Theitalianamerican (5/1) – Stretching out to a route for the 1st time and dropping out of stakes competition, the Conductor thinks the added distance will be her friend.

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Sports

The Conductor’s Week 2 NFL Picks

The Mormons prevail for the Conductor again yesterday, so the Conductor’s football wallet is fat. He can’t wait to double down.

Car Payment Play

Chicago Bears -2 @ Denver Broncos

This the only game the Conductor loves this Sunday. The Bears put up an embarrassing offensive performance in week 1 and travel to mile high after a few extra days do look themselves in the mirror and prepare. Chicago’s defense is still one of the best in the league and they are going to devour Joe Flacco who is exactly who the Conductor thought he was. The Conductor doesn’t see this one being close. Final Score – Chicago 24 Denver 10

Image result for chicago bears gif

Ponies

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Belmont Park

We couldn’t get the prices around him, but the Conductor’s best bet #2 Amundson got the job done at 5/2 yesterday. There is nothing better than Sundays in the fall. Ponies and football, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6½ Furlongs. F.Clm 16000n2L

#6 Peggy Sue (9/5) – This is an incredibly weak group of fillies.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) S.MC 40000

#8 Alphastest (3/1) – This colt just missed at this level two back and looks to get a favorable trip today alone on the lead.

#9 Clear the Ramp (15/1) – He’s a bomb the Conductor can get into the trifecta.

Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 100000n1x

#1 Chipolata (6/5) – This is bad betting race.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.S.MC 50000

#9 Top Hat Invasion (10/1) – This filly showed decent early speed vs tougher in her debut. She gets lasix today for the first time and is drawn well.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 35000n3L

#1/1A Entry (1/1) – Servis looks tough to beat.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. Alw 77000n3x

#1 Off the Record (9/5) – Chalky.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 90k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Cardiff Cay (15/1) – This colt made a big early moved into hot pace in his debut. The no name trainer will keep his price high. The Conductor will key him in the trifecta.

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Race 8: 6 Furlongs. S.Mdn 62k

#4 Dream Bigger (3/5) – He’s going to be tough beat based on his debut.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) S.OC 40000n2x

#2 Discretionary Marq (5/1) – This gelding set a hot pace and held on for a close 4th last time. He gets back to Belmont today where he is a different animal. He’s 5/8 over this turf course.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) Clm 25000

#5 Fear (6/1) – Dropping in class, the Conductor will forgive this gelding’s last effort over a yielding turf course. He looks to get a good trip today forwardly placed and is tough as nails.