Category: Picks

Free horse racing picks, best bets, and full-card handicapping from The Pony Conductor. Race-by-race analysis and value plays across America’s top tracks — Gulfstream, Keeneland, Churchill Downs, Belmont, Saratoga, Santa Anita and more — every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

Belmont Stakes Day Picks — Saturday, June 6, 2026

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Close finish of several jockeys riding horses on dirt racetrack with large crowd in stands

The Conductor’s race-by-race card for Belmont Stakes Day, Saturday, June 6, 2026. Each line runs top tier / second tier / third tier — key contenders.

RaceThe Conductor’s Numbers
23 / 4,9 / 7
39 / 8 / 1,3,5,7
48 / 2,4,6
51 / 2,3,6,8
68 / 1,5,6,9,14
74 / 2,3
86,3 / 2,8
98 / 1,3,4,5,6,9,10
102 / 1,6 / 5,8
117 / 3,1
123 / 6,7 / 1
13 — Belmont Stakes7,4 / 2,6,8
148 / 4,5,11 / 2

The Feature — Race 13, The Belmont Stakes

The Conductor likes #7 Commandment, currently 5/1. He had a poor trip in the Derby and ran better than it looks, moving early and wide into a slow pace.

#4 Renegade is the rightful favorite but way overbet here. He got destroyed at the start of the Derby, but the pace scenario worked in his favor.

Aqueduct Sunday Picks – 5/17/2026

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Jockey riding horse Napoleon Solo number 8 on a dirt racetrack

Preakness Recap

Napoleon Solo (7/1) got the job done at Pimlico. Right horse, right price — the kind of result that reminds you why he is the Conductor and we are not worthy. Thank you Mr. Ductor for my weekend coal, you are the greatest. Up to New York we go, Skip.

Aqueduct

1) 1,6 / 2
2) 2,3 / 4,5
3) 1 / 6,7
4) 5,4 / 7
5) 1,3,4 / 2
6) 5,10 / 3,4,6,7
7) 2,3,5 / 6,9
8) 5,6 / 1,4

The Conductor’s Picks — Aqueduct, Sunday May 10th

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Horses racing on dirt track at Belmont Park with spectators in grandstand

The Conductor will be staying at NYRA for the time being. The product is what it is, the takeout is what it is, and there are a lot of things that kick horseplayers in the dick, but at least NYRA is doing a little something. The late Pick 5 is allegedly CAW-free, and that matters.

The Grid

1) 3 / 6,7
2) 1,3 / 2,6
3) 1,3 / 2,7
4) 1 / 2,3
5) 1,6 / 2,4,5
6) 5 / 2,8
7) 5 / 1,3,7
8) 6,9 / 1,3,4
9) 1,5 / 9,10,12

Good Luck, Passengers.

Derby Day Picks – Churchill Downs

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Group of jockeys riding horses nearing the finish line at Kentucky Derby race

Average Oaks Day for the Conductor with a brutal 2nd in the Oaks. Less chalk today, more bombs. Skip.

Featured Play – Race 12, Kentucky Derby

Win: #18 Further Ado (currently 6/1)

The Conductor is going with #18 Further Ado in the Derby, currently at 6/1. He’s the most talented horse in the race, and the Conductor sees Johnny V giving him a good ride. The race dynamics have changed a lot with the scratches. Cheap speed has drawn in from the outside, and there will be a quicker pace than anticipated earlier in the week.

Longshot to Hit the Board – #11 Incredibolt (26/1)

If you’re looking for a longshot to hit the board, the Conductor’s favorite price at the moment is #11 Incredibolt at 26/1. He dusted a weak field last time. However, he didn’t have a great trip and ran a big late pace figure. He can make the trifecta and superfecta pay.

The Full Card

RaceABCD
26, 72, 4, 8, 9, 11——
3134, 5, 9, 12, 14——
454——
573, 94, 5, 11—
662, 4, 10, 11——
728——
864, 5, 8, 9——
9 3, 4, 125, 6, 7, 10——
10621, 5, 7—
11 5, 6, 71, 3, 4, 9, 10——
12 (Kentucky Derby)186, 8, 11, 121, 7, 10, 153, 14, 16, 17, 19
138———
1411, 123, 7, 8, 9, 14——

Good luck Passengers

Oaks Day Picks – Churchill Downs

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Horses racing at Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs with a large crowd

Below are the Conductor’s plays for the rest of the card, headlined by a live longshot in the Kentucky Oaks.

Featured Play — Race 13, Kentucky Oaks

Win: #5 Meaning (currently 8/1)

The Oaks is wide open this year, and the Conductor is taking a shot with #5 Meaning at a square price of 8/1. She was up close to a hot pace last time out and still finished the job. There isn’t much speed in this race and she should get the jump on the field as they turn for home. Meaning has every chance to hold off the closers in the lane. Lets fill the caboose with coal for Derby Day. Skip

The Rest of the Card

RaceAB
392, 10, 11
41, 73, 4, 11
511, 101, 5, 6
65, 62, 8, 12
73, 4, 65, 9
86, 83, 4, 9
982, 3, 7
1063, 5
117, 91, 5, 8
124, 92, 3, 5, 8, 11
1352, 9, 10, 11

Aqueduct Picks – Saturday, April 25, 2026

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Horse race at Aqueduct Racetrack with crowd and city skyline

A poor finishing day at Keeneland with the chalk dominating means the Conductor isn’t headed to Louisville just yet. He like the card at Aqueduct as long as the races stay on the turf.

Aqueduct – Saturday, April 25, 2026

  • Race 1: 5,6,8 / 1,3
  • Race 2: 5,6 / 3,4,7
  • Race 3: 7 / 2
  • Race 4: 3 / 1,4,6
  • Race 5: 3,2 / 1,4,5,8
  • Race 6: 1,5,7,8,9
  • Race 7: 2,6 / 3,4,8,10
  • Race 8: 8,7 / 2,3,5
  • Race 9: 2,3,5,7 / 6,9
  • Race 10: 3,6 / 1,2,7,9

Let’s have a prosperous day in New York

Keeneland Closing Day – The Conductor’s Picks

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Horse race underway at Keeneland racetrack with crowd watching near finish line

Sunday’s 8th dropped a 152/1 exacta, hope you were aboard. Closing day at Keeneland is bittersweet. The Conductor will miss the turf, and somebody up top really does need to do something about the CAWS. One more swing before the meet packs up.

RaceA ContendersB Contenders
137, 2
258
31, 25, 7
43, 4, 5, 7, 82
534, 6
64, 51, 6
79, 41, 2, 3, 5, 6
81, 93, 6
961, 7, 8
104, 6, 8, 111, 9

See you trackside. Then we’re off to Louisville for Derby prep next week. Skip