Month: February 2023

Rebel Stakes Saturday Picks — February 25, 2023 | Rebel Stakes Day at Oaklawn Park

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Horses racing at Oaklawn Park with jockeys in colorful silks and starting gate in the background.

Hopefully the rain holds off Saturday at Oaklawn for the 2023 Rebel Stakes. It probably won’t and a great card will be ruined. Skip.

Oaklawn Race 8: 6 Furlongs. OC 50000n2x

#5 Improbable Journey (12/1) – When this gelding clears to the front he can win and his early pace figures give him a chance to here. There looks to be some rain in the forecast and the wet track further improves his chances. It’s more probable that he steals this one on the front end.

Other Contenders: #1 Flap Jack (2/1), #3 Senor Jobim (12/1), #6 Spankster (5/2), #8 Albizu (3/1)

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. OC 50000n2x

#2 Golden Hornet (4/1) – This is another gelding that has an early pace advantage in an Oaklawn sprint. He showed real grit fighting back after being headed in the stretch last time. The Ductor will back him again today if this morning line holds.

Other Contenders: #4 Osbourne (8/5). #9 Life is Hard (3/1), #10 Fore Left (10/1)

Race 10: 1 1/16  Mile. F.G3 Honeybee Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Effortlesslyelgant (20/1) – His morning line can’t be accurate. He’ll still be a good price and he’s a wild card stretching out to a route for the first time. He ran a strong number in the slop sprinting last time and this race does not have a lot of other early pace. He should be able to clear from the rail and there’s no telling how far he wants to go. At the price he’ll be, he needs to be included on any passenger’s tickets.

Other Contenders: #3 Grand Love (3/1), #4 Gambling Girl (12/1), #7 Wet Paint (7/2)

Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. G2 Rebel Stakes

#3 Red Route Run (10/1) – He’s the price the Ductor likes best in the is race and the one he’ll key around. He ran very well in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last fall where he was shut off in the stretch and never quit. He returned off the bench last time and showed a good closing kick behind the odds on favorite Arabian Night. With a step forward 2nd off the layoff he can win this race and he’ll be finishing best. At worse he’ll inject value into the exacta and trifecta.

oaklawn

Other Contenders: #1 Verifying (2/1), #5 Giant Mischief (5/2), #6 Reincarnate (7/2)

Other Contenders: #1 Verifying (2/1), #5 Giant Mischief (5/2), #6 Reincarnate (7/2)

Race 12: 6 Furlongs. S.Mdn 90k

#7 Midnight Taxes (3/1) – This looks like a chalky finale at Oaklawn to the Ductor. #10 Time Andbeyond (5/2) is a formidable favorite after overcoming serious trouble at the start last time. The Ductor is still going to try and beat him with the early pace advantage Midnight Taxes has over this group. This gelding will be able to get the early lead and moving to the Hartman barn, he wont stop. He’ll make thee Ductor’s 2024’s check to uncle Sam much larger.

Oaklawn Park Friday Picks — February 24, 2023 | Full Card Value Plays

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Horses racing towards the finish line at Oaklawn Park with a large finish sign in view.

The Ductor needs to get back to capping every day, but man it is hard with the state of winter racing. The Ductor wants to save you horse racing, but other than Saturdays, these cards stink. He needs quality turf racing back like he needs air to breathe. The Ductor’s attention has turned to Oaklawn this week with the Rebel this weekend ahead. The late pick 5 Friday is an interesting sequence, it has a chance to pay. Skip.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. Clm 16000

#9 Espionage (8/1) – This race is wide open and looks like a good spot to get a price. This colt won in a very similar scenario in his season debut at Oaklawn last year. He draws a nice outside post and has early speed in a sprint without much early pace. He can keep a close eye on his inside opposition and pounce.

#5 Big Nick (15/1) – This morning line can’t be accurate. However, he will still be a good price and he has the best early pace figures in the field. This gelding dueled on the inside last time an faltered against a much tougher group. In his race two back, he lost by a neck at this level. It could be argued that the slop moved him up that day, but he’s run similar numbers on a fast dirt track and it could have been the barn switch. The Ductor sees him carrying his speed  a lot longer today.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 12500

#5 Bidofhoney (3/1) – This is a terrible field and this filly is working well for Hartman who is a ridiculous 34% at the meet. 45/65 of his runners have hit the board….nothing to see here. Unfortunately for horseplayers, sometimes if you can’t beat them, join them.

Race 7: 1 Mile. F.Clm 25000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Black Kat Taps (12/1) – Another race to go price shopping, this mare is sneaky stretching out in her 3rd start off the layoff. Throw out her last race in the slop and her numbers fit with this group. She gets major class relief today and her best races come at this distance. She’s be taking on her weakest field in over a year.

oaklawn

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. Alw 104000n2L

#2 Film Star (3/1) – This colt’s work tab at Oaklawn for Cox suggests he’s going to run off the screen. With his lone win coming in he slop the Ductor would normally be against this colt at a short price. However, there isn’t a ton to like in here as alternatives. #3 Summer in Malibu (8/1) and #1 Mahammel (5/2) are the logiacal alternatives.

Race 9: 1 Mile. F.Mdn 90k

#3 Star of Tomorrow (20/1) – This filly has a very interesting work tab with a series of slow works followed by a bullet going 5 furlongs. The Ductor likes the look of it and she’s well meant with a 120k purchase price and the top rider aboard. The Ingrid Mason barn is 3% for the meet and that should steer the public away. She hasn’t had a 1st time starter win lately, but she’s 12% for her career. The Ductor has that feeling in his right knee that she’ll be his star today.

#2 Stellar Lily (2/1) – She’s the logical favorite and has an early pace edge over this group in her first time stretching out. Gate to wire would be no surprise.

Risen Star Stakes Saturday Picks — February 18, 2023 | Risen Star Day at Fair Grounds

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Horses and jockeys starting a race at Fair Grounds Race Course with starting gates open.

The best card of the day is down in Louisiana for the Risen Star Stakes and the Ductor loves his gumbo and stew. He will have plenty to eat tonight after he gets through with this track Let’s Ride

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Colonel Power Stakes

#9 Even Sing (5/1) – The best turf sprinter in the field draws in after scratches and his morning line price should hold. This gelding has a thunderous late kick and has run well despite slow paces and bad rides in his last few starts. He gets a major rider upgrade to Prat today and the Ductor will trust that he can work out a trip. Mo baby Mo!

risen star stakes

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. G3 Mineshaft Stakes

#3 4/1 Tawny Port (4/1) – Making his first start as a 4-year-old, he’s the one that could throttle what looks like a competitive field on paper. He’s working well for the Cox barn, gets Lasix back on and faced much tougher last year. His Jim Dandy two back beats this group with ease. Cox says he wants longer leading up to race, but he can’t sneak one past the Ductor. Hopefully he doesn’t get killed at the windows and this morning line is close to accurate.

Race 13: 1 1/8Mile. G2 Risen Star Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #12 Crupi (15/1) – This is an insanely difficult Risen Start Stakes to cap. You could make a case for any in here and the Ductor wouldn’t fight you. Lesser cappers shy away from these type races, but that’s why they buy a ticket and sit while the Ductor drives. The Ductor is taking a shot with a maiden in this race. This colt broke incredibly slow of the layoff last time and  moved thru the field with ease. Then he was in a gutter war down the stretch and never threw in the towel. He ran the fastest brisnet figure this field has and a strong late pace figure. He’s going to relish the added distance and the Ductor will gamble he can work out a decent trip from the outside post.

Coast to Coast Pick 5 Picks — February 18, 2023 | Saturday Stakes Sequence

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Horses racing out of the starting gate at Santa Anita Park with mountains in the background.

The first real Derby prep is here, but there is work to be done across this great country. The Ductor will have Fairgrounds picks up soon. His generosity continues. Hit the Coast to Coast pick 5 between the eye’s today. Skip.

Santa Anita Park Race 3: 6½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.Mdn 67k

#2 Finally an Eddie (4/1) – This 1st time starter cost 385k and is bred to relish the lawn. The Callahan barn has them ready to roll on debut with a $+1.22 ROI unleashing runners on the turf this year. He’s the lone horse that can beat the rightful favorite #1 Catalina Eddy (8/5). Catalina Eddy ran well in his 1st start on dirt and is bred to step forward on grass today.

Gulfstream Park Race 10: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) S.OC 20000n1x

#5 Feelthebeat (4/1) – This is the most difficult race of the sequence, with the majority of the runners exiting synthetic races with little turf form. This gelding has shown he’s best on turf and ran sneaky well off the bench over synthetic last time. He had a brutal trip and still made a nice middle move. He’s ready to run his best today.

Other Contenders: #1 Lovin Makes Cents (10/1), #3 Exchange Day (7/2) #4 Brit’s Candyman (4/1), #8 Nic’s Bro (10/1)

Santa Anita Park Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. F.OC 50000n1x

#1 Manorelli (8/1) – This filly is stretching out to a route off of some solid efforts sprinting. Her last effort was better than it looks, where she was stuck inside in a duel. There is not a lot of early pace in this field and nobody can go with her early. Alone on the lead is never a bad place to be at Santa Anita.

#7 Smoothlikebuttah (4/1) – This mare continues to run strong late pace figures into slow paces and last race was no different. She has the figures to beat this group and drops in class today. She’s up against the pace scenario again, but she’ll be an overlay and is good enough to win anyway.

Gulfstream Park Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G3 Royal Delta Stakes

#2 Kathleen O (7/5) – This is a match race between her and #5 Classy Edition (3/2). Even though Classy Edition will have the early jump on her, the Ductor thinks Kathleen O will be too much down the stretch. He’ll single her in the Coast to Coast Pick 5.

coast to coast pick 5

Santa Anita Park Race 5: (Turf) 1 1/4 Mile. F.Alw 25000

Nothing creative here. #2 Aloha Kitten (7/2) or #4 Harper’s Gallop (2/1) will get us paid. Skip

Coast to Coast Pick 5 Picks — February 4, 2023 | Saturday Stakes Sequence

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A horse racing at Gulfstream Park with a scoreboard displaying race results in the background.

Back to our regularly scheduled programming. We had a few shorter prices come thru on turf Pegasus Day , but the Ductor gave up on Art Collector long ago. The Saturday cards are starting to get filled with stakes races and the Ductor is percolating. Let’s whack the Coast to Coast Pick 5 this weekend. and buy the paintings back. Skip.

Gulfstream Park Race 10: 7 Furlongs. F.G3 Forward Gal Stakes

#3 Automatically (3/1) – The Ductor is leaning towards singling this filly in the 1st leg. She ran well enough in the Breeders’ Cup with a bad trip to show she has a class edge over this group. She thrashed #6 Lynx (6/1) two starts back, who the Ductor puts 2nd here. Pletcher is 24% off the layoff this year and the Ductor will trust him.

Other Contenders: #7 Undervalued Asset (7/2), #8 Red Carpet Ready (4/1)

Santa Anita Park Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Megahertz Stakes

#8 Oakhurst (8/1) – This filly showed potential in the Chad Brown barn early in her career and ran her best career race last time. She was wide going into the first turn and showed a nice turn of foot closing into a slow pace. Now she cuts back to a mile and gets a rider upgrade to Prat. There will be a hot pace in this race and she will be flying late.

Others Contenders: #2 Hamwood Flier (5/1), #3 Nadette (5/1), #6 School Dance (3/1)

Gulfstream Park Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.S.G3 Sweetest Chant Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Stephanie’s Charm (12/1) – The Ductor will argue that she ran better than the favorite #7 Cairo Consort (2/1) last time even though she was beaten. While Cairo Consort was tucked in behind horses, she was wide around both turns and still finished strong, galloping out in front. The Ductor likes her steady progression and is praying this morning line is close to accurate.

coast to coast pick 5

Other Contenders: #8 Heavenly Sunday (5/1)

Gulfstream Park Race 12: 1 1/16 Mile. G3 Holy Bull Stakes

#4 Cyclone Mischief (2/1) – This colt took a giant step forward last time and if he runs the same race he’ll win easy. The Ductor is a little weary that effort was his first time with Lasix and now he’s back to all natural. Unfortunately, the Ductor doesn’t like any prices in this race. The alternative is #6 Legacy Isle (7/2). He set a blistering pace last time and did well to cross the wire first even though he was tired. He should get a more favorable trip here, alone on the lead.

Santa Anita Park Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) G3 Thunder Road Stakes

#7 There Goes Harvard (8/1) – This horse was impressive last year before something went wrong at Del Mar and has been on the bench since. All three of his turf races were good and he was able to win a Grade 1 on dirt, which isn’t his preferred surface based on his breeding. He’s working his eyeballs out and the Ductor likes that they’re putting him back on the turf. The barn isn’t messing around returning him to stakes company and calling Johnny V to ride.

#9 Hit The Road (5/1) – He’s the class of the field and hopefully his dull effort last time helps his price. That race was clearly a prep for this spot. They take the blinkers off and return him to his best distance today. If he can get a good trip from the outside draw, he’s dangerous to finish our Coast to Coast Pick 5.

Others Contenders: #2 Du Jour (15/1), #4 Bob and Jackie (15/1), #10 Dark Shift (8/1), #12 Cabo Spirit (6/1)