Month: May 2023

Collaboration crossed the wire in front Monday at 6/1. Nice to see one go through the hoop after a tough week at the windows. Oh wait, she got DQ’d and placed 2nd for a minor bump? That sounds about right at Belmont. FU Mr. Ductor, even when you’re right you’re a loser. On to Thursday, Skip.

Race 2: *1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 95000n1x

#1 Anatolian (6/1) – This morning line is likely high for these connections, but the Conductor will take 4/1 or better on this filly. She’s steadily progressing in the Maker barn and now stretches out going long on the turf. This is obviously Maker’s specialty and its exactly what she’s bred for. Irad taking the mount is a sign she’s live as well. Irad is a ridiculous 11/24 with a +$1.62 ROI when riding for Maker in the last two months.

Race 4: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) S.Mdn 75k

#2 Captain Party (3/1) – The Conductor was impressed with this gelding’s effort off the bench at Belmont last time. He made a sustained wide middle move on the turn and never quit. This is a weaker group than he faced last time and the shorter distance should help his cause too. Trainer George Weaver is 16% with a +$0.86 ROI with runners 2nd off a layoff this year.

Race 6: *1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.S.Mdn 75k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 She’s a Natural (10/1) – This is a wide open maiden race and this filly has moved forward in her last two starts. She’s o/9 lifetime, but has only 3 tries routing on the turf. She did get a setup last time closing into a quick pace, but she was very wide on the turn and checked hard twice after the break. Getting a major rider upgrade to Prat here, everything points to a career best effort. The post and low % trainer are a concern, but they will only help her price. In a field without any world beaters, double digit odds is more than fair.

Oh no Mr. Ductor. 0/2 at Belmont Saturday has us passengers bleeding out on what is supposed to be an enjoyable long weekend. We don’t want to die Conductor, please save us. Please.

Race 2: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 50000n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Frosty Invasion (15/1) – Another heinous weekend card at Belmont where the betting opportunities are few and far between. That being said, a juicy bomb shows up early on the card for the Conductor. This filly broke her maiden at 47/1 last time in her 2nd career turf star. That win was no fluke. She was slammed at start, made an early 4-wide move into a quick pace on the turn, and still won easy. She bumps up in class and takes on winners today, but this is a pretty weak group for this level. The Conductor will take a shot that she’s a mower and found her calling on the lawn. She can atone for all of the Conductor’s sins this weekend and then some.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.S.MC 40000

#5 Lem Me Drink (4/1) – If Frosty Invasion runs well like the Conductor projects, then you passengers will want to triple down on this filly. She finished 2nd behind Frosty Invasion last time, moving early into a quick pace as well. That was her first try dropping to this level routing on the turf. She ran some quality races vs tougher las year. 2nd off the layoff today, she should get her picture taken and 4/1 would be more than fair..

O/3 Friday  at Belmont was the gut punch we all needed to start this Memorial Day weekend off right. The Conductor only has two in the chamber for this terrible Saturday card. Let’s see if we can get the train moving back in the right direction.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) F.G3 Soaring Softly Stakes

#3 American Apple (4/1) – This filly continues to get disrespected at the windows and out outrun her odds. She won a Grade 3 at Aqueduct at 47/1 last fall and has progressed since. Last time at Churchill she ran a solid 2nd after making a wide move on the turn, while the winner got a dream trip. The Conductor thinks she’ll like the added distance today and she’s the only horse that can provide value in this disappointing 6 horse stakes field. The Belmont bettors will gravitate towards Chad Brown and Clement and she’ll be an overlay.

Race 9: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) Alw 95000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Fighter in the Win (6/1) – This colt had an impossible turf trip off a layoff last time. He pressed 4-wide, uncovered around both turns and rightfully finished up the track. Now 2nd off the bench, he’s the lone speed in this field and just missed last year at this level and distance trying to take them gate to wire. The Conductor sees him running a career best effort on the lead today and stealing it on the front end.

The Conductor last talked to us on a Preakness Day, where we were bleeding out at Belmont and Pimlico until the feature:

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Good Skip. The last race of the day can always solve your problems passengers, you know that. The rain in New York had the Conductor passing on Sunday’s card, but thankfully the weather looks great for Memorial Day Weekend. Enjoy your time at the beach, summers finally here. The Conductor will be in his cockpit at Belmont Friday through Monday. Someone’s got to work. Skip.

Race 2: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 32000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Jackie the Joker (12/1) – In her first start on the turf last time, she ran well with a terrible turf trip pressing 3wide uncovered the entire turn. That was also in a sprint race that melted down and now she stretches out 1st off the claim. She’s bred for the turf and the Conductor has no clue what’s taken connections so long to try it. The new barn seems to be smarter and she has an early pace edge over this group. The Conductor sees her popping a career best effort today.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 50000n2L

#3 Mauritius (5/2) – This gelding took a big step forward in his 1st try routing on the Belmont turf last time. He ran a solid 3rd and galloped out well in front of the rest. The 2nd place finisher has already come back to win and Mauritius should run even better today in his 2nd try mowing.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) MC 40000

#7 Chess Spectacular (4/1) – Can the Conductor interest you in a 3rd 2nd time turfer? Well of you like money you’ll bite. He ran a strong closing 4th last time, making up ground behind a slow pace. Additionally, he had a bad turf trip 3-wide and uncovered both turns. With the move this gelding showed Mr. Ductor on the turn, he’ll graduate today.

Fatima’s blessing saved us at 5/2 Friday at Belmont, but that only prevented death. We don’t want more, we need more and Belmont is hiding from us. Another terrible Saturday card is on the menu it looks like we also have rain in the forecast. Disgraceful, but we’ll try to extract some value. Skip.

Race 9: 6½ Furlongs. F.Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 La Aguililla (6/1) – If you are an astute passenger, you will recall the Conductor was planning on playing this mare on the turf Thursday. They scratched her for this spot and the Conductor will trust that Jacobson knows what he’s doing. The Conductor’s notes remain the same. She was well bet vs tougher on turf last start and ran much better than it looks on paper. She had heinous turf trip chasing 4-wide, uncovered the entire turn and ran very well to hold onto 3rd. Now she draws a better post, gets a rider upgrade and is 2nd off the bench and 2nd off the claim. If she’s ever going to win, this is the time.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. (OFF Turf) OC 62500n2x

#15 Scocciatore (5/1) – There is almost no chance this race will be on the turf, so the Conductor is handicapping for an off track. Mr. Ductor has always been a fan of this gelding, who consistently outruns his odds on any surface. He ran well despite a tough trip in the slop last time and will be facing weaker today. With a nice outside draw today, the Conductor will certainly take a price close to this morning line.

That’s what the Conductor gets for doing his work early. He had one race he was excited about playing Thursday at Belmont and both his price horses got scratched. Throw in a loser and its an annoying start to the week, We march onward. The Pimlico cards are growing on the Conductor, he’ll have Black-Eyed Susan Day spot play up later tonight. Let’s Ride.

Belmont Park Race 4: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

#6 Arina (8/5) – She’s not a lucrative price, but the Conductor thinks she’s a cinch. She ran a huge late pace figure, closing into a slow pace off the bench last time. 2nd off the layoff today, she will handle this field.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 40000

#3 Aula (10/1) – She was well bet in her first start on turf last time. She was rank early and lost all chance expending her energy fighting the rider. She returns at the same level and Clement takes the blinkers off, hoping she’ll relax. This is Clement’s best move, he’s 7/17 this year with a $+1.23 ROI doing so. Aula has upside in a weak race.

#8 Maythisbetheone (3/1) – Exiting the same race as Aula, she ran best behind the winner. She had a poor turf trip chasing 3-wide uncovered on the turn and never quit. She’s the most likely winner.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) S.Alw 80000n1x

#7 Fatima’s Blessing (2/1) – The Conductor was surprised his morning line was so low. It’s slim pickings on this Belmont Friday card. Mr. Ductor thinks he’ll float up to the 5/2, 3/1 range and he’ll single him in the horizontals. He showed a nice turn of foot late last time in a merry-go-round race. He was the only horse to pass rivals in the stretch. Fatima’s Blessing should beat this group.

The Sunday card at Belmont turned out to be as bad as the Conductor projected. 0/2 and a chalk fest was a disappointing way to end a stellar weekend. Don’t worry Mr. Ductor, we still bow to you.

Its Preakness week and the train is filled with coal. We’ll remain stationed in New York, but the Conductor will have some bonus Pimlico stakes plays Friday and Saturday. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 50000s

#3 Irish Jackson (15/1) – This filly missed the break in her debut, then rushed up and blew by the 1/2 favorite in the stretch. That race was in the slop vs much weaker, but she’s bred for the turf and this is a wide open allowance race. The Conductor thinks she has upside and likes this aggressive spotting 1st off the claim.

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 La Aguililla (8/1) – Mr. Ductor are you losing it? This horse is 1/31! Yes, this true, but she moved away from a low % barn last time and drastically improved. She was well bet vs a tougher group at this level in that last start and ran much better than it looks on paper. She had heinous turf trip chasing 4-wide, uncovered the entire turn and ran very well to hold onto 3rd. Now she draws a better post, gets a rider upgrade and is 2nd off the bench and 2nd off the claim. If she’s ever going to win, this is the time.

Race 6: 1 Mile. F.OC 50000n1x

#2 Lay the Groundwork (6/1) – This filly is steadily progressing in the Hennig barn and has run well over the slop, turf and synthetic. She’s bred to handle the dirt just fine. The Conductor isn’t sure why she’s only tried it once. If she can handle the Belmont dirt like the Conductor projects, she fits right in with this group. 6/1 would also be more than a fair price.