Month: November 2020

Churchill Downs: Late Pick 4 Key Horses for Friday, November 27

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Entrance of Churchill Downs featuring a horse statue and the Kentucky Derby Museum.

Some nice prices at Churchill Downs hand Del Mar yesterday. The Conductor will hit Kentucky and California again today, then back to a full slate tomorrow.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Alw 87000n1x

#1 O Seraphina (7/2) – She got cooked in a hot pace last time and is now stretching back out to a route. 2nd off the layoff, she’ll be fit and will have a more favorable pace scenario today.

#7 Longpants Required (10/1) – This filly ran a very strong late pace figure in a race taken off the turf last time. If you ignore her turf races, she fits with this group at a big price.

Race 9: 1 Mile. OC 80000n3x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Casino Star (8/1) – He’s been running behind real racehorses in his last few and hasn’t disgraced himself. He gets major class relief today despite staying at the same level.

Churchill Downs

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Clark Stakes

#8 Bodexpress (8/1) – All his monster races have come at Gulfstream Park West, which is a concern, but will help his price. There is no denying his early pace advantage in here. Right to the front and hold on for dear life.

#3 Code of Honor (3/1) – He’s the most likely winner in the Conductor’s opinion

Race 11: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 85k

#7 Silverbella (9/5) – 2nd off the layoff today after a good effort last time at Churchill Downs, she’s clearly the one to beat. Her race two back crushes this field.

Del Mar: Thanksgiving Late Pick 4 Key Horses

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Woman holding a large trophy depicting a horse race at the Del Mar racetrack.

It’s Thanksgiving at Del Mar and we have to find some way to pay for out feast. It’s a work day for us while most passengers rest. Skip

Race 5: 1 Mile. MC 20000

*Extra Stuffing Down Your Latch Whack of the Day #1 Mongol Altai (10/1) – 2nd off the layoff and adding blinkers today, he had no chance last time at Del Mar behind a tepid class. He’s been well backed at the windows in his last two and the Conductor sees him taking a big step forward today.

Del Mar

Race 6: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Red Carpet H.

#1 California Kook (5/1) – She’s facing a much weaker field today than her last 3 at Del Mar. Rosario takes the mount, which is a good sign.

#8 Blame Debbie (3/1) – In great form and shipping out west. She’s the most likely winner by far in the Conductor’s opinion.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Clm 20000n3L

#1 Satchel de Ritches (8/1) – 1st off the claim for Bob Hess Jr and shipping in from Keeneland, he ran well last time and is facing weaker today. His numbers fit with this group.

#8 Call You Tomorrow (9/2) – Taking a big class drop and finally getting back to sprinting over the Del Mar dirt where he’s clearly his best, you must use him.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) OClm 50000

#4 Gregdar (10/1) – He had some trouble last time and is stretching out to a route for the first time. His pace figures suggest he’ll have no problem doing so and Rispoli stays in the irons.

Churchill Downs: Thanksgiving Late Pick 4 Key Horses

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Four riders on horseback at Churchill Downs with the grandstand in the background.

Give the Conductor all the action at Churchill Downs today with a hot pot of gravy and a barrel of stew. Let’s Ride.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. F.OC 62500n2x

#5 Casual (9/2) – She’s been off since the summer after going off form. She returns today in not too tough a spot and has the most talent and upside in the field. The Conductor will take a swing at anything near that price. Go watch her maiden race again.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. OC 80000n3x

*Double Gravy Whack of the Day #1 Strike Power (12/1) – What a great betting race this is. This horse is making his first start in the Asmussen barn off a long layoff. He’s won off long breaks before and his A effort beats this field. The Conductor must include him at that price.

#3 Bango (10/1) – He beat a strong field two back and had no chance behind Nashville last time. 3rd off the layoff today and returning to Churchill Downs, where he runs his best, the Conductor loves him here.

Churchill Downs

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G2 Falls City Stakes

#3 Bonny South (8/5) – She ran huge last time at Churchill Downs and would have won easy with a halfway decent ride. Her race in the Alabama two back beats this field easily.

Race 11: 6½ Furlongs. Alw 87000n1x

#3 Motagally (15/1) – This colt ran a good 3rd last time pressing a hot pace routing. Cutting back to a sprint today and adding blinkers, he’s dangerous at a big number.

#6 Pirate Rick (8/1) – He’s taking a big step up in class, but nobody in this field can hang with this colt early. He’ll be on the lead by himself, which you cannot ignore.

 

Churchill Downs: Key Horses for Wednesday, November 25

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Thoroughbred horses racing at a derby event with a large crowd in the background, showcasing the excitement of horse racing.

Churchill Downs Pick 5 time. Skip.

Churchill Downs Race 5: 1 Mile. Clm 20000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Adhhar (6/1) – Stretching out to a route and dropping in class, this gelding looks to get a favorable trip up close or on a moderate pace. Amoss is 29% with a +$0.59 ROI with runners going two sprints to a route this year.

Churchill Downs

Race 6: 1 Mile. Clm 8000n2L

#6 Tom’s Last General (10/1) – Cutting back to a sprint and switching from turf to dirt, this colt will be very fit. His numbers fit with this group and the Conductor will try to get him in the exacta.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 50000n2L

#7 Beauty Day (6/1) – First off the claim for John Ortiz, this filly draws well to the outside and will be up close to a moderate pace. The Conductor likes the bump up in class and the turnback to a sprint.

Race 8: 1 Mile. OC 100000n2x

#5 Wild Wes (4/1) – #1 Dennis’ Moment (5/2) is working well and he shows up, they’ll be running for 2nd. However, this gelding is intriguing. He’s stretching out for the 1st time and ran huge last time behind the freak Nashville. He has major upside.

Race 9: 1 Mile. MC 50000

#10 Bird Ruler (2/1) – Dropping in class after running well at Churchill Downs in his debut, he’s clearly the one to beat.

Aqueduct: Late Pick 4 Key Horses for Sunday, November 22

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Horses competing in a race at Aqueduct Racetrack with jockeys in colorful silks.

North Dakota at 8/1 at Aqueduct was the highlight of Saturday for the Conductor. We still need a big Sunday to end the racing week. Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) S.Alw 72000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Matty’s Express (6/1) – 2nd off a short layoff today, he set a quick pace last time and held on for a good 3rd at this level. He gets a major rider upgrade today and the Conductor is hoping connections are smart enough to use the same tactics as last time. There is no other speed in the race, and he has a major chance to wire them.

Aqueduct

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Outer Turf) F.S.Alw 72000n1x

#1 Mike’s Girl (8/1) – The favorites look tough in here, but this girl catches the Conductor’s eye. Ignore here last race off a long layoff and a sloppy track and she fits in here. She will be able to save ground and will have a hot pace to run at late.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. S. New York Stallion Series Stakes

#7 Sadie Lady (7/2) – Her two efforts this summer at Belmont were disappointing, but she’s had some time off and gets back to Aqueduct where she runs her best. She has a nice outside draw and has a significant early pace advantage over this field.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.S.MC 40000

#10 My Lips Are Sealed (6/1) – Returning off a long layoff and dropping in class for strong connections, the Conductor likes her work tab. Her breeding suggests she’ll step forward on the grass and she has upside in a field of mostly proven losers.

Del Mar: Late Pick 4 Key Horses for Saturday, November 21

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Three women posing together wearing large, colorful hats at an outdoor event.

It’s a beautiful day and an even better card today at Del Mar. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 6½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 57k

#1 Leia Marie (4/1) – Cutting back to a sprint and switching back to dirt, her races over the dirt in New York were very strong. The Conductor likes that she’s adding blinkers and he’ll single her in this sequence.

Race 7: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) OClm 50000

#8 Caerulean (9/2) – He’ll be a higher price than he should with low % connections. His maiden breaker was very fast over this track and he’s working well entering today. He’ll be able to put himself in a good position early with his speed.

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. S.Mdn 57k

*Double Barrell Buckshot #1 Starship Chewbacca (8/1) – Another runner that will be an overlay because of his trainer, he’s yet to run a bad race. 2nd off the layoff and returning to Del Mar where he’s run his best, he has every chance.

#7 Square Root (6/1) – This colt dueled and set a hot pace routing on turf last time and is now switching to dirt and cutting back to a sprint. This is one of the Conductor’s favorite angles.

del mar

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Clm 25000

#1 Justin’s Quest (3/1) – His race two back on dirt wins this race easy and this gelding is bred for turf despite never having tried it. He’s the most likely winner in the Conductor’s opinion

#5 Golden Doughnut (8/1) – Dropping in class and stretching out to route, he looks to get a favorable trip up close or on a moderate pace.

Aqueduct: Late Pick 4 Key Horses for Saturday, November 21

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Horses competing in a race at Aqueduct Racetrack with jockeys in colorful silks.

Aqueduct time, Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 1 1/17 Mile. (Outer Turf) Clm 30000n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 K. K. Ichikawa (6/1) – He ran ok closing into a moderate pace last time and had a strong gallop out. The extra 1/16 of a mile will help him today and Rosario takes the mount for Nevin, who he rarely rides for.

aqueduct

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. S.Alw 72000n1x

#8 Riken (6/1) – #7 Saratoga Pal (8/5) is clearly the one to beat in here, but the Conductor likes this gelding as the best of the speed. He has a strong early pace advantage in here and you can throw out his last race on a sloppy track. He’ll be the one to catch turning for home.

Race 9: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) G3 Red Smith Stakes

#8 Ziyad (9/2) – He didn’t have the easiest of trips last time parked wide behind a slow pace and still finished well. He had been facing much stronger across the pond and should improve in his 2nd start in the US.

#5 North Dakota (10/1) – Also exiting the Sycamore Stakes, he was stuck on the rail in the stretch. He would have been right there with a clean trip and he continues to progress.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Outer Turf) S.MC 40000

#7 Open Lengths (10/1) – His debut was rained off the turf along with his last and he had a sloppy track effort in between. He will finally get a chance on the surface he was meant for today and he adds blinkers. In an open race, he has upside.

Churchill Downs: Key Horses for Saturday, November 21

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Jockey wearing red and white silks riding a horse during a race with dirt on the horse's body.

2/4 with shorter prices and a 2nd at Churchill Downs, chaos at Aqueduct, and nothing special at Del Mar Friday. The Conductor needs some of his bombs to come home this weekend. Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.OClm 20000

#6 Its Cold in Dehere (7/2) – He looks to get a perfect setup and loves Churchill Downs. The Morey barn is red hot, over 5/2 and he’s a good bet.

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 85k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Bel Fiore (12/1) – She showed ability in her debut, closing for 3rd into a slow pace. Then she had a rough start last time after being bet to favoritism. There is more under the hood here and the Conductor likes the switch to Gaffalione in the irons.

churchill downs

Race 9: 1 Mile. F.G3 Chilukki Stakes

#1 New Roo (20/1) – This filly moved early into a hot pace last time and faded late. Her prior two efforts fit with this group on numbers and she’s one of the longest shots on the board. The Conductor will key her in the trifecta at a bomb.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 10000b

#8 Blanket of Roses (6/1) – He’s taking a big drop in class for strong connections. He’s yet to run on dirt, but has run well on both turf and synthetic. In an open race, he has every chance.

Del Mar: Conductor’s Key Horses for Friday, November 20

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A group of horses exiting the starting gate at a horse racing event with spectators in the foreground.

Del Mar time, Let’s Ride.

Del Mar Race 5: 1 Mile. Clm 8000

*Gullet shot of the Day #4 R Cha Cha (4/1) – Its tough to love anyone in this field, but, there is no early speed in here. Stretching out to a mile after finishing 3rd sprinting at this level last time, he has upside. He gets the bug aboard and may be able to steal it on the front end.

Horse Racing GIF by Del Mar Racing

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) S.OC 20000n1x

#4 Handsome Cat (8/1) – He’s the price that intrigues the Conductor. He just beat tougher on dirt and is now stretching out and switching to turf. His past turf form isn’t great, but that was in a different barn and he’s never tried routing on the lawn.

#6 Fly to Mars (7/2) – This colt is stretching back out to a preferable distance and 3rd off the layoff for the Miller barn. He’s the one to beat in the conductor’s opinion.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 50000

#1 Chevelita (3/1) – She was heavily bet in her debut at Del Mar and stumbled at the break. Now she drops in class for Miller and Prat hops aboard.

#5 Martique Miss (6/1) – This filly is working like she can run and Hernandez takes the mount for Hollendorfer. This is an unusual and positive sign.

Race 8: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 57k

#5 Theluteismine (2/1) – She looks like a clear standout for top connections.

Aqueduct: Late Pick 4 Key Horses for Friday, November 20

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Horses and jockeys starting a race at Aqueduct Racetrack with starting gates open.

Should we whack the late pick 4 at Aqueduct passengers? I think we shall, multiple times. Skip.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.S.OC 40000n2x

#11 Speightstown Gal (6/1) – An 11 horse dirt sprint is just what the Ductor ordered on a Friday. This girl broke her maiden in the mud and has been narrowly missing on turf ever since. She has the early speed to put herself in a good position early and the dirt may move her up.

#1 Miss Jimmy (8/1) – This filly loves to win and is 5/6 at 6 furlongs. She would be in the 4/1 range with top connections, but with a low % rider she’ll likely stay around her morning line. That’s a type of horse the Conductor will always use.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Outer Turf) Clm 35000n3L

*Looney Bin Bomb of the Day #7 Scoreswhenhewants (30/1) – Stretching out and switching to turf off a long layoff, his turf routes fit with this group. Granted he’s switching to a much weaker barn, but you’ll be compensated by the price. He can light up the trifecta.

Straitjacket GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

#9 Kid Mercury (10/1) – Another interesting price, he’s dropping to the claiming ranks for the first time and shortening in distance. Franco is 2/5 with a +$1.32 ROI teaming up with Motion in the last 60 days.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 82000n1x

#5 Eye of a Soldier (4/1) – She’s run well in every start this year, including a good 3rd last time after setting a quick pace. She’s still learning and is versatile.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 16000n2L

*Force Feed Friday Whack of the Day #14 Tripp Road (12/1) – You must include #6 Well Brush Mytooth (5/1) in the Linda Rice barn for the first time, but this filly will be a much tastier price. She stumbled at the break last time at Aqueduct and was then up close to the pace going a mile. Turning back to a sprint today, she’ll be finishing strong, and her numbers fit with this group.

aqueduct