Month: November 2020

Aqueduct: Late Pick 4 Key Horses for Thursday, November 19

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Vibrant mural depicting a horse and jockey at Aqueduct Racetrack in New York, showcasing racing culture and art.

Let’s pick up where we left off Sunday at Aqueduct. Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 1 Mile. OC 62500n2x

*Throat Shot Thursday Whack of the Day #8 Chilly in Charge (15/1) – The Conductor will key this colt in the exacta and trifecta. He’s very consistent on dirt and has proven he can win routing. Exiting a sprint, he’ll be in a good position early, up close to what looks to be a moderate pace.

aqueduct

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 50000s

#1 Kitten by the Sea (7/2) – Throw out her last race that got rained off the turf at Aqueduct, she’s clearly the one to beat in the Conductor’s opinion.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. (Outer Turf) Alw 82000n1x

#10 Godlovesasinner (15/1) – He draws a tough post, but at a monster price the Conductor will be using him. He’s in his best form and ran a huge 3rd last time at 47/1. God does love the Conductor!

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L

#6 Freedom Force (7/2) – He pressed the pace vs miles tougher last time and drops back to a proper level today. He’s by far the one to beat.

#12 Number One Dillon (10/1) – Taking a class plunge as well, his race 3 back beats this field. He could surprise this group.

#8 Dangerous Edge (5/1) – A first time gelding for strong connections, you must be weary of him.

Churchill Downs: Key Horses for Wednesday, November 18

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Horses racing towards the finish line at a night event with spectators in the background.

Alright passengers, we need a bounce back week so the Conductor can have a full Thanksgiving dinner next Thursday. It starts tomorrow at Churchill Downs and there are a bunch of prices jumping of the page. The Conductor will be tossing and turning dreaming about them tonight. Let’s Ride.

Churchill Downs Race 5: 7 Furlongs. F.OClm 50000

*#1 Dash to the Top (5/2) – Taking a big class drop and cutting back to a sprint, she’s a clear standout in here and a single.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 30000

*Double Barreled Buckshot #7 Spy a Star (10/1) – This filly made a decent move going 1 mile at last time before tiring and the Conductor loves the turnback to a sprint. Her best race was a good 3rd at Churchill Downs sprinting vs tougher two starts back.

#10 Sugar Diva (10/1) – You can ignore her race last time on a sloppy track, and she showed ability in her debut prior. She is taking a major class drop as well.

Funny Gun GIFs | Tenor

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Hygh I. Q. (8/1) – He made a nice move before tiring late last time. Making his 3rd career start and shortening a half furlong today, anything near 8/1 is a must bet.

churchill downs

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

#2 Extra Effort (8/1) – She got cooked up close to a hot pace on dirt last time  and in her lone turf effort two back, she ran a good 3rd vs similar company. Switching back to turf today, this filly can hit the board at a nice price.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. Clm 10000b

#2 Jimmy Joe (10/1) – Cipriano Contreras can get them ready off the layoff and this gelding has a strong early pace figure edge over this field. He can escape on the front end at a big number.

Churchill Downs: Key Horses for Sunday, November 15

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Entrance of Churchill Downs featuring the Kentucky Derby Museum and decorative architecture.

The Conductor’s key horses keep scratching at Churchill Downs. With rain in the forecast, the Conductor will focus on the early pick 4 tomorrow with all dirt races. The Conductor is annoyed and the track will need to atone for its sins on the Sabbath. Let’s Ride.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 10000b

#1 Abramax (3/1) – It was tough to make up ground on the Keeneland dirt and that’s just what she did last time. Dropping in class today, she’s the most likely winner and very playable if she’s not bet too hard.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. MC 30000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Thrown for a Loupe (8/1) – He dueled into submission last time and plunges in class today. He also shortens a furlong and draws a nice outside post. The Conductor prays he’s close to that price.

Churchill Downs

Race 4: 1 Mile. Alw 87000n1x

#2 Glory Road (4/1) – Cross out his last race when he broke thru the gate. His race two back at Churchill Downs stretching out for the first time gives him more than a chance against this group.

Race 5: 1 Mile. Mdn 85k

#1 Adara (10/1) – There aren’t any standouts in here, so the Conductor will peek at this 1st time starter. He’s well bred and has a decent work tab at Churchill Downs for strong connections. Additionally, trainer Ken Mcpeek is 11% with a +$0.49 ROI debuting runners over a mile this year.

Churchill Downs: Key Horses for Saturday, November 14

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Horses racing at Churchill Downs with spectators in the grandstands during an event.

Everyone knows weekday racing is for the birds. Saturday at Churchill Downs is where the actions at. The Conductor’s Breeders’ Cup hangover is over, Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#10 Holiday Stone (6/1) – Dropping out of Grade 3 company, his race two back gives him every chance. He looks to get a good trip in here, with a hot pace to run at.

Race 8: 1 Mile. Clm 50000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day 10 Lonely Private (6/1) – Stretching out for the first time, he’ll be able to put himself in a good spot early in a race without much other pace. Trainer Wesley Hawley is also 3/11 with a +$0.64 ROI this year taking the blinkers off.

Cant Breathe Rudy Ayoub GIF - CantBreathe RudyAyoub SoHeavy - Discover & Share GIFs

Race 9: 1 Mile. F.Alw 87000n1x

#4 Ocean Breeze (8/5) – After her wide trip last time at Churchill Downs, she should be able to handle this group. Her love for 2nd scares the Conductor, but he will stay strong.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Mrs. Revere Stakes

*Chiseled in Stone Lock of the Day #1 Hendy Woods (3/1) – Dropping out of a much tougher Grade 1 field that has come back live, she ran pretty well up close to a quick pace last time. Press her.

Churchill Downs

Race 11: 1 Mile. F.Mdn 85k

#9 Empress Catherine (6/1) – She was hammered at the windows at Churchill Downs in her debut and didn’t show much. The Conductor will forgive that effort and bet she shows her real ability here.

Churchill Downs: Late Pick 5 Key Horses for Friday, November 13

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Large crowd of spectators at the Kentucky Derby event at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

Woof, the Conductor’s been off the stew this week and his runners still haven’t finished running at Churchill Downs. Not to worry, he’s got a tall glass in his hand right now. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

*Double Barreled Buckshot #2 Luvin Bullies (10/1) – This mare is a hard knocker and you can ignore her last two races that were taken off the turf. She’s working well off a short layoff.

#3 Violenza (12/1) – She had a tough trip last time at Churchill Downs and her two prior efforts put her right there. In an open race, she has every chance.

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Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. MC 30000

*Force Feed Friday Best Bet of the Day #9 Beaucette’s Ekati (4/1) – This colt made a nice move on the turn before yielding late and drops in class today. 4/1 would be a treat.

Churchill Downs

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 30000n2L

#10 Eagle Eye (4/1) – She had a wide trip last time off the layoff at Churchill Downs and showed talent in her debut. Another hammer job if she’s 4/1.

Race 9: 1 Mile. F.Alw 87000n1x

#4 Ocean Breeze (8/5) – This filly is a standout on numbers. If you can’t trust her today you never can.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 85k

#7 Aeronaut (20/1) – He’s working well and trainer Vickie Foley is 3/12 with a +$3.50 ROI this year with 1st time starters. Mitchell Murrell also takes the mount for a barn he never rides for.

Churchill Downs: Key Horses for Wednesday, November 11

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Entrance of Churchill Downs featuring a horse statue and the Kentucky Derby Museum.

Finally, we’re back at Churchill tomorrow. Let all the fair-weather passengers go back to their holes after the Breeders’ Cup. Or, hopefully their dumping their winnings into the Conductor’s pools. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Clm 50000

#5 Rijeka (8/1) – Dropping in class and shortening in distance, he’ll be very fit and had no chance behind a tepid pace last time.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. MC 30000

#4 Tribulation (9/2) – He was bet to favoritism last time at Churchill and stumbled at the start. He showed ability in his debut and the Conductor likes the rider switch to Gaffalione.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 62500n2x

#3 Two Thirty Five (5/2) – Although it was against weaker, his last race would beat this field. He has strong clack class and he may float up in odds with a few others in here that will take money.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 87000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Choate Bridge (10/1) – He took a big step forward last time at Churchill making up ground behind a slow pace. He should get a pace to run at this time and the Conductor sees him running a peak effort 3rd off the layoff.

Churchill Downs

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 85k

#5 Atoka (10/1) – This colt just missed Saratoga last year in his debut, showing talent and the ability to run well off the layoff. He’s working well entering today and will be a big number.

Churchill Downs: Late Pick 5 Key Horses for Sunday, November 8

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Thoroughbred horses racing at a derby event with spectators in the background, showcasing the excitement of horse racing.

Up and down Breeders’ Cup weekend for the Conductor. All in all, he should have capitalized more on a few more opportunities especially Audarya. Anyhow, hopefully you passengers made a few bucks and the train keeps moving. Whether its a maiden claimer at Churchill Downs or a Breeders’ Cup race, the money is still green. Skip.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CHTmV27Bpqq/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

 

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 85k

#1 Committed (12/1) – 2nd off the layoff today, he made a big wide move last time and was green down the stretch. He was flying at the finish and should step forward off of that effort. He gets a nice inside draw today as well.

Race 7: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 8000

#5 Paddy O’dini (4/1) – Dropping in class, switching from turf to dirt and posting a bullet work coming in. He smells like a Diodoro runner that wins easy.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. Clm 20000n2L

#2 Hansens Mischief (7/2) – He dueled against much tougher last time and didn’t get embarrassed. He’s very dangerous in this spot.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 100000n2x

#9 Mariafoot (10/1) – Dropping out of Grade 2 company, this filly is making her 3rd start in the US and she showed talent across the pond. She will have pace to run at in this one, which will help her chances.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 85k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 My Mane Girl (8/1) – She was favored in her debut last year at Churchill Downs and set a hot pace after a bothered start. Her work tab suggests this filly can fly.

Churchill Downs

Breeders’ Cup Classic Picks and Analysis

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A brown racehorse with a jockey in white and blue attire racing on a track during a competition.

Breeders’ Cup Classic time. Skip.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 12: 1 ¼ G1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic

#1 Tacitus (20/1) – The granddaddy of them all and a more competitive Classic than we’ve seen in recent years. There are many with a chance in here and this colt isn’t one of them. However, he is a consistent runner and they’ll likely go back to taking him off the pace today. Everyone hates this horse because he’s cost them money, but if he’s really that price the Conductor will use him in 3rd. He can see a scenario where he grinds away while the others try to win the race and picks up the bronze at a big number.

#2 Tiz the Law (3/1)

This colt has the most upside in the field. He got turned away in the derby, but he’s had some time to rest and can still improve. If you watch his Travers again, he never even takes it out of 2nd gear. That being said, there are some serious older racehorses in here and the Conductor will only use him as a backup.

#3 By My Standards (10/1) – This colt always runs his race, he’s just not as good as Improbable and Tom’s d’Etat. The Conductor can’t see a scenario where he jumps up to beat them here.

#4 Tom’s d’Etat (6/1) – Every passenger and their mother are picking this horse, so he may be in the 9/2 range. The Conductor understands the hype as the stumble cost him the race last time.  He also ran a huge late pace figure. However, a stumble as a 7-year-old is a sign of going off form, which is likely why connections have trained him up to this race. He’s going to have to run his A+ race to win in here and the Conductor thinks that’s a tough ask.

#5 Title Ready (30/1) – He’ll drop to the back and try to make one run to pick up 3rd, but he’s not getting ready for any title.

#6 Higher Power (20/1) – He’ll need god to come down to his stall tonight for him to be competitive.

#7 Global Campaign (20/1) – This colt is improving this year, but that’s with him being on the early lead. He has a 0% chance of getting the lead in this race.

*#8 Improbable (5/2)

The Conductor thinks we’re going to get 3/1 in here as he’s not getting the respect he deserves. He’s turned into a real racehorse this year.  Most importantly, the Ductor sees him getting a nice trip in this Breeders’ Cup Classic. Authentic and Maximum Security will get sent from his outside and he’ll be able to get the outside stalking trip that he loves. He’ll be in the clear and ready to pounce whenever he pleases. He’s the one to beat.

breeders' cup classic

#9 Authentic (6/1) – This colt still has the Conductor’s brain in a pretzel. There really isn’t a ton of other speed in here other than Maximum Security and they’re both trained by Baffert. They won’t duel which will help his chances, but this feels like a bounce spot for him and he’ll have to run even better taking on older horses for the first time. The Conductor is going to watch how Swiss Skydiver fairs in the Distaff before he makes his final judgement. For now, he’s leaning against.

#10 Maximum Security (7/2) – The Conductor is going to toss him from the exacta. Improbable dusted him last time and the Conductor can’t see him turning the tables. He’ll be heavily bet because of his fame, but he’s going in the wrong direction.

Picks: 8 

Breeders’ Cup Turf Picks and Analysis

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A horse with a jockey in red and white silks competing in a race at the Breeders' Cup event.

Breeders’ Cup Turf time. Let’s Ride.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 11: 1½ Mile. (Turf) G1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf

#1 Arklow (5/1) – The blinkers woke this horse up last time, but him being 5/1 against this field is laughable. You can call the Conductor Benedict Arnold in this race, the Euros are a cut above.

breeders' cup turf

*#2 Magical (5/2) – She’s a true Grade 1 mare who takes on the boys every time across the pond. She can’t be left off your tickets.

*#3 Tarnawa (6/1) – This filly did some real mowing in the stretch last time and seems to be the talk of the town. The Conductor will put her on top.

#4 Mehdaayih (30/1) – She isn’t in the same class as the other Euros.

#5 Donjah (30/1) – Read the line above.

*#6 Lord North (8/1) – The Conductor will forgive his last effort over the soft going. He fits with the contenders.

#7 United (8/1) – The California competition he’s been facing is very weak. No thanks.

#8 Red King (20/1) – Read the line above.

#9 Channel Maker (5/1) – He’s found good form going to the front in his last two starts. But again, he’s been facing much weaker.

*#10 Mogul (4/1) – An improving 3-year-old, he showed an impressive burst last time and has major upside. He can’t be ignored.

Picks: 3 – 2 – 10 – 6

Breeders’ Cup Distaff Picks and Analysis

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A group of racehorses competing on a dirt track during a horse race.

Breeders’ Cup Distaff time. Skip.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff

#1 Ce Ce (12/1) – This is the least competitive race Saturday in the Conductor’s opinion. He’d be shocked if anyone other than #5 Swiss Skydiver or #10 Monomoy Girl won. This filly can’t compete with them.

*#2 Harvest Moon (12/1) – This is the filly with upside that the Conductor will key in the exacta. If one of the big girls doesn’t fire she can get in there. She continues to steadily progress and answer each tougher test.

breeders' cup distaff

#3 Dunbar Road (12/1) – She’s digressed this year, no thanks.

#4 Horologist (8/1) – You can’t knock her last effort, but she’ll be the likely 3rd choice and this is a different class of runners.

#5 Swiss Skydiver (2/1) – This filly’s stretch run in the Preakness will make your hair stand up. She can take down Monomoy Girl unless the Preakness took too much out of her.

#6 Lady Kate (15/1) – She’ll set the early pace and then get engulfed.

#7 Point of Honor (30/1) – This girl has let the Conductor down too many times. However, she’ll be flying late and can round out the trifecta.

#8 Valiance (8/1) – Another possible candidate for 3rd. She is improving and ran very well last time over this Keeneland surface.

#9 Ollie’s Candy (10/1) – This mare always runs well and is chandelier. She hates the winners circle, 3rd at best.

*#10 Monomoy Girl (8/5) – Gun to head the Conductor thinks she’ll beat Swiss Skydiver, but he’s hoping for a showdown. She’s fresh and never loses.

Picks: 10 – 5 – 2