Month: May 2024

Aqueduct Sunday Picks — May 19, 2024 | Best Bets & Post-Preakness Analysis

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A vintage train conductor in a locomotive cabin, showcasing detailed controls and a focused expression, emphasizing railway heritage.

Seize the Gray wires the field in Preakness and the train leaves Maryland without any coal. However, we are fast and firm at Aqueduct today and their cards are finally becoming playable. There are some nice opportunities out there. Let’s take advantage, or dig ourselves a deeper hole. Skip.

Race 2: 1 Mile. S.MC 30000

#2 Solo Rye’d (15/1) – This gelding dropped to this level off the bench last time and ran well behind a slow pace going 7 furlongs. His three races last year can be ignored on the turf and a sloppy track. Now 2nd off the layoff, he stretches out in distance and will try a mile on a fast dirt track for the 1st time. He has upside in a field of proven losers.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Clm 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Secret Rules (6/1) – This gelding ran better than it looks last time at Keeneland, closing behind a slow pace on a speed favoring track. Even though that race was at the same level, he faced a much tougher group than he’s facing here. Secret Rules was also claimed out of that race by Linda Rice. That certainly warrants an upgrade shipping back to New York. The last time he ran at this level and distance at Aqueduct, he beat the field by 4 1/2 lengths at 9/1. 7/2 or better will be just fine this time for the Conductor.

Aqueduct Picks

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 90k

#3 John the Beer Man (5/2) – Nothing too creative in the finale. However, the Conductor will certainly play this gelding if he is indeed north of 2/1. He’s run well with two terrible trips and this is a much weaker field than he faced last time at Keeneland. In that race he was wrangled early and checked sharply into the first turn. Despite his trouble, he still finished best against the front-runner flow. He should graduate today.

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Preakness Day Picks — Saturday, May 18, 2024 | Full Card Best Bets & Pimlico Analysis

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An elderly conductor in uniform observing a horse race, with digital elements overlaying a racetrack scene.

Well, the Conductor is broke after Friday. The good thing is the sun will rise in the east and there’s always another race in 20 minutes. If the pony gods limit the rain, we should be in for an action packed Preakness Saturday. Back to work.

Churchill Downs Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 120k

#3 Cabernaydo (8/1) – This is a wide open maiden race and the Conductor thought this gelding ran well vs a salty Keeneland field last time. He was bumped hard at the start and was full of run late, weaving to find a hole in the stretch. He draws well today against a weaker group and he should be a square price with low % connections. Cabernaydo is a solid bet north of 5/1.

Pimlico Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Gallorette Stakes

#5 Five Towns (6/1) – This filly is steadily progressing for Graham Motion. In her last victory, she toyed with the field without the best trip. She’s proven she can handle a soft turf course across the pond and looks and should get a nice trip here. She’ll have the jump on the favorite, #7 Fluffy Socks (6/5), and be tough to pass down the stretch.

Pimlico Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) James W. Murphy Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Massif (20/1) – The Conductor has been waiting for this gelding to show up again after his last race. He made a big 5-wide uncovered move on turn that day and did incredibly well to sustain his run for 3rd. When the Conductor saw his 20/1 morning line today, he spit out his stew. Massif has a big chance against this mediocre group and looks to get a good trip with a nice inside draw. This horse should be behind the paywall, but the Conductor is feeling generous on this Preakness Saturday.

Preakness Stakes 2024

Pimlico Race 13: 1 3/16 Mile. G1 Preakness Stakes

#8 Tuscan Gold (8/1) – This is a competitive Preakness field without any standouts. Tuscan Gold ran big in the Louisiana Derby, pressing a quick pace while wide around both turns. Chad Brown has been very successful in the Preakness with runners that have skipped the Kentucky Derby and followed the same pattern as Tuscan Gold. He’s fresh and ready to fire a peak effort.

#7 Just Steel (15/1) – He’s certainly the live longshot in this race. He finished 4 1/2 lengths in front of the Kentucky Derby winner, #5 Mystic Dan (5/2), in the Arkansas Derby two back. In the Kentucky Derby, he had a trip from hell and ran well all things considered. He gets a massive rider upgrade to Rosario today and looks to get a favorable trip up close to a moderate pace. Just Steel can light up the tote.

#9 Imagination (6/1) – You can’t ignore the lone speed Bob Baffert horse. He’s not a monster, but has a tactical edge on a likely speed favoring track. The Conductor won’t let him re-break and beat him

#5 Mystic Dan (5/2) – The Kentucky Derby winner will be the favorite after the scratch of Muth, but winning this race is a tough ask. The Conductor will likely be against him at a short price, however a sloppy track does help his cause. He was all out to win the Derby and returning just 14 days later, the Conductor will surprised if he’s getting his picture taken again.

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Black-Eyed Susan Day Picks & Best Bets — Pimlico, Friday, May 17, 2024 | Full Card

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Black-Eyed Susan Pimlico

Small fields and off the turf today at Aqueduct, no passenger needs to be playing that slop. The train will be stationed in Maryland for the upcoming Preakness weekend, hopefully the weather cooperates. The forecast looks fine for tomorrow and we have a delectable 14 race card headlined by the Black-Eyed Susan on our plate. Remember to only play the 12% takeout pick 5’s at Pimlico. The takeout rates of every other pool is a complete disgrace. Aim small, miss small, but really never miss at all. Skip.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. F.Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Intrepid Dream (8/1) – This mare has found it difficult to stay on the track, but runs well every time. She’s 6/7 lifetime and will be making her 3rd start off a layoff for the first time in her career. She’s stretching out in distance today, but her best races have come routing and her early pace figures give her an advantage over this group. She’ll get an ideal trip pressing a moderate pace and the Ductor sees her being tough to run down in the stretch.

Black-Eyed Susan Stakes Pimliico

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.G3 Miss Preakness Stakes

#4 Launch (9/2) – This is a cool filly who came from turf sprints across the pond to find her calling sprinting on the dirt in the US. She’s steadily progressing and 3/3 over a fast dirt track. The Conductor likes that she showed she can stalk and pounce last time too. With lots of other speed in here, sitting just off the pace will be the ideal spot.

Race 12: 1 3/16 Mile. G3 Pimlico Special Stakes

#8 Royal Ship (12/1) – The favorites look tough in here, but this gelding intrigues the Conductor at a price. He has plenty of back class and his speed figures fit with this group. Making his first start for Motion off the bench last time, he showed some early speed after a poor start. That sprint race was a clear prep for this spot anyway, and the aggressive spot 2nd off the bench is a positive sign. Royal Ship will get an ideal Johnny V trip pressing a slow pace and is very dangerous.

Race 13: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G2 Black-Eyed Susan Sakes

#4 Call Another Play (8/1) – This is a very slow group of fillies for this rendition of the Black-Eyed Susan. The Conductor will take a shot with a filly who is in great form and improving with each start. Coming from the claiming ranks just three starts back, she’s answered the bell with each step up in class. The added distance has clearly been a key to her success, and she’s one of a only a few fillies in here you can count on to be finishing late. She probably needs to take another step forward to win here, but the price should be right and Rachel Alexandra is certainly not in this field.

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Aqueduct Mother’s Day Picks & Best Bets — Sunday, May 12, 2024 | Pick 6 Carryover

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aqueduct

Antiquarian scores at 6/1 Saturday and the train is refueled with coal heading into Mothers’ Day. Get your family obligations out of the way early today passengers, we have a juicy pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct this afternoon. Unfortunately, only the feature stays on the turf today. Frustrating, but we’ll play the hand we’re dealt. Let’s Ride

Race 3: 6½ Furlongs. F.OC 62500n2x

#5 Frau Diablo (3/1) – This filly is steadily progressing and did well to hold onto 2nd after setting a wicked pace going 7 furlongs last time. Nobody can pressure her early in this field, and the shorter distance helps her cause. Gate to wire.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. (Outer Turf) F.G3 Soaring Softly Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Kodiac Wintergreen (6/1) – This filly showed talent last year sprinting on the turf. She returned off the bench last time at Keeneland and ran a decent 3rd in a stakes race rained off the lawn. With that race under her belt, she looks primed to run a peak effort returning to the turf and making her second start as a 3-year-old. 5-1 or better is a square price.

aqueduct picks

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Off Turf) S.MC 40000

#7 Feline Treasure (12/1) – This is an absolutely dismal field after scratches. This gelding exits two sprint races at Aqueduct and will now stretch out to a route for the first time. He’ll be facing his weakest field to date and will be forwardly placed in a race devoid of pace. The Conductor also finds it very interesting that Franco hops aboard for a small barn he never rides for. He may know something the public doesn’t see on paper. Feline Treasure is worth a swing in the finale.

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Aqueduct Saturday Picks — May 11, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

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A vibrant depiction of a horse race featuring multiple horses and jockeys in colorful silks, with a large crowd in the background.

Well the rail certainly wasn’t the place to be Friday at Aqueduct and that’s exactly where the Conductor’s horses faltered. Back to fast and firm today in New York, other than race 11 which was taken off the turf. Time to get the train moving in the right direction. Skip.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. G3 Peter Pan Stakes

#1 Protective (8/1) – The Conductor likes both Pletcher colts at square prices in the Peter Pan. Protective got a good ground saving trip after a poor start in the Wood, but he was absolutely flying late. He’s clearly improving and the Wood was a better race than the public gives it credit for. He is very dangerous today with Irad taking the mount in the feature dirt race at Aqueduct.

#6 Antiquarian (6/1) – This gelding broke thru the gate prior to the start of the Louisiana Derby. That ruins your chances 99% of the time and the Conductor was impressed he still ran well. He pressed a decent pace while wide and was only beaten 4 lengths. Now shortening in distance he looks to get an ideal trip here, pressing a slow pace. He’s moving in the right direction and should take a big jump up today.

Race 7: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) G2 Man o’ War Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Greek Order (15/1) – The Conductor sees #9 Nation’s Pride (8/5) winning this race and will pair him up with Greek Order underneath. Greek Order showed real quality in Europe, never missing the board over multiple distances and surfaces. He was bet to favoritism in his US debut in an allowance race at Keeneland last month. He ran evenly after a poor start that day, in a race controlled by the frontrunners. Greek Order will step forward with that race under his belt and the Conductor likes the added distance for him here. A 9/6 exacta here will make it a great Saturday.

NYRA Aqueduct Picks

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Aqueduct Friday Picks — May 10, 2024 | Best Bets & Handicapping Analysis

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Aqueduct Picks

Ouster losing a photo Thursday was a nice hoof to the groin to start the racing week. Unfortunately, we’re off the turf today at Aqueduct when the Conductor had some prices up his sleeve. We’ll make do. Skip.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. S.Mdn 75k

#1 Clancy Fancy (10/1) – This gelding took a big step forward off the bench last time. He lunged at the break and still showed early speed and hung on for 3rd. He’s lightly raced and now adds blinkers for the 1st time. The Conductor likes Clancy Fancy’s upside making his 2nd start off the layoff and 2nd start in the Englehart barn. Gate to wire.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. F.S.OC 80000n1x

#1 Walk With Me (9/2) – They bet this filly to favoritism last time off a short break going 1 mile at this level. She dropped too far back behind a slow pace that day, but still grinded her way for 2nd. They add the blinkers to her for the 1st time today and she has shown early speed in the past. With a cleaner trip today she can beat this field with the scratch of the #6.

Race 9: 1 Mile. S.MC 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Wo Hop (8/1) – This gelding took money vs maidens in his debut last time and ran poorly in the slop. With just a 42k purchase price, the drop to this level after one start doesn’t concern the Conductor at all. Also, there is no rain in the forecast the rest of the day and the track will be drying out by post time. Now making his 2nd career start for Mott with Lasix added on a good surface, he can take a big step forward. This is a very weak field after the surface change and scratches at Aqueduct. It wont take much for him to jump up and beat this group.

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NYRA Thursday Picks — May 9, 2024 | Best Bets & Kentucky Derby Recap

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NYRA Picks

The Kentucky Derby didn’t unfold the way the Conductor wanted. An unbelievable rail skimming ride by Brian Hernandez Jr. aboard Mystic Dan was the difference. However, Forever Young ran the best race. He didn’t have a great trip to start and was fouled repeatedly in the stretch by Sierra Leone who lugged in 6th paths. The fact that there wasn’t even an inquiry is a disgrace. If the Japanese horse was owned and trained by a big time American outfit, Sierra Leone gets DQ’d and put 3rd no question. Alas, the train continues onward and the Conductor is happy to get back to the NYRA where they finally have turf racing. The Conductor’s bread and butter. It’s coal mining season. Skip.

Race 1: 1 Mile. F.Mdn 90k

#1 Gioioso (3/1) – This filly had a brutal trip in her debut. She was bumped hard at the start, but had enough speed to put herself in a good position entering the turn. Paco then took her up sharply as she seemed to be making a potential winning move. This looked like a stiff job to the Conductor, as there was plenty of room to angle her out into the clear. She has major upside making just her 2nd career start in a race filled with average fillies

Race 4: 1 Mile. Clm 25000n2L

#4 Fighting Back (2/1) – The Conductor trusts this colt to find the winner’s circle more than any other horse on the NYRA card. He likes that Linda Rice spotted him aggressively off the bench last time. He ran better than it looks with a wide trip that day and now drops in class to take on a much weaker group. Fighting Back won’t be a big price, but you can confidently single her.

Race 7: 1 1/8 Mile. OC 80000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Ouster (4/1) – This gelding won his comeback race last last time sprinting. He closed behind a slow pace in a race that was likely a prep for this spot. He’s shown he’s best routing and stretches back out in distance today. He’ll get a nice ground saving trip stalking the speed and pounce entering the stretch.

NYRA Picks

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2024 Kentucky Derby Picks & Key Horses — Saturday, May 4, 2024 | Full Card Battle Plan

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Kentucky Derby

Please hold the rain off Friday and Saturday pony gods. If the slop comes, then it’s up to us foolish passengers to cap on our own. We don’t need that on racing’s biggest day. Here’s the Conductor’s Kentucky Derby battle card. Skip.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Our Shot (10/1) – This gelding drew the 10 post last time in the Shakertown Stakes and it cost him. He made a massive 5-wide move on the turn and the Conductor was impressed that he was able to sustain his run for 4th. The Conductor would argue he could have won that race with a cleaner trip and we’ll find out if he’s right today. Our Shot gets a better post and is taking on many of the same foes. Best of all, he’ll be a better price.

2024 Kentucky Derby

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes

#2 Walkathon (10/1) – This is a very weak Grade 2 field in the Conductor’s opinion. #11 Coppice (5/1) is the clear class of the group, but she draws a tough post and will be a short price while making her first start in the US. Of the Americans, the Conductor likes Walkathon quite a bit. She showed real talent in 2022 and is finally rounding back into form. She just missed two back and ran better than it looks last time taking on tougher. Walkathon ran evenly in the G1 Jenny Wily in a complete merry go round race, with the winner going gate to wire. She looks to get a much more favorable trip here, saving ground and stalking a contested early pace. Most importantly, she’ll finally get Leparoux off her back. Hernandez hops aboard and she will appreciate the better pilot.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. G1 Churchill Downs Stakes

#4  Mr. Wireless (6/1) – This gelding ran admirably last year routing, he just couldn’t quite finish off his races. He was crying for a cutback to one turn and got his wish last time off the bench. He obliterated an allowance field and ran a speed figure that can put him in the winner’s circle today. Making his 2nd start off the layoff, the Conductor doesn’t see how you can’t bet this horse if this morning line is close to accurate.

Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. G1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic

#1 Integration (5/1) – This colt handled the some of the contenders in here last year and his form has been muddied since. He’s had two tough trips in a row and now the Conductor is buying while many less skilled passengers will be selling. Last time in the Makers Mark Mile, he made a strong move while wide to get up for 3rd over a yielding turf course, at a distance too short for him. Now making his 3rd start of the year with a nice rail draw, he’s going to fire a peak effort.

Race 12: 1 1/4 Mile. 1 1/4 Kentucky Derby

#17 Fierceness (5/2) – The 2024 Kentucky Derby goes through one horse. He is significantly faster than this field and if he runs his race it’s over. However, he’s thrown in two bad races when circumstances haven’t gone his way. The Conductor is normally allergic to chalk and it’s hard to stomach short price on a horse who has shown flaws. He’s just so much more talented than this group. The way to play this Derby is to single and press him on top of most of your tickets, and then have a few backups that don’t have him hitting the board. He’s either going to dominate or finish 10th. More likely than not Fierceness gets a patented Johnny V Ride pressing a moderate pace and wins this race handily.

#2 Sierra Leone (3/1) – If you’re betting this horse to win, then you need to find a new game. He is a solid closer but is not in the same league as Fierceness and will be a similar price. He is likely to hit the board, but if Sierra Leone wins the Conductor will spend his Saturday night in the sewer.

#4 Catching Freedom (8/1) – You need to be very weary of the two improving Brad Cox runners in here. Catching Freedom showed a nice turn of foot in the Louisiana Derby and will be finishing well late.

#7 Honor Marie (20/1) – This Colt was outkicked by Catching Freedom last time, but still ran a solid late pace figure closing into a moderate pace. He will have no problem getting the distance and the Conductor will use him underneath in the verticals at a big price.

#8 Just A Touch (10/1) – He’s the other Brad Cox horse and the most likely to jump up and upset Fierceness in the Conductor’s opinion. Stretching out in distance last time he pressed a blistering pace in the Bluegrass and did well to hold onto 2nd. The Conductor doesn’t see the pace being too hot in this Kentucky Derby and this colt is moving in the right direction.

#11 Forever Young (10/1) – If you remember last year’s Kentucky Derby, the Conductor touted the Japanese invader Derma Sotogake. He missed the break and still finished 6th that day and then went on to finish 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (So the Conductor was right all along although he got nothing to show for it). Japan has the best racing in the world today and they have another solid horse shipping in this year. The Conductor will certainly be using Forever Young underneath Fierceness and he can win if Fierceness flops. A Japanese horse is going to win a Kentucky Derby sooner rather than later.

#15 Domestic Product (30/1) – This is the bomb the Conductor is most intrigued by. He’s yet to run a fast speed figure, but that’s only because he’s been closing into insanely slow paces. The Tampa Bay Derby was a complete crawl up front and Domestic Product still passed 5 horses to win easy. His late pace figures are enormous and Irad will likely put him in a position to run his best. He can light up the exotics.

2024 Kentucky Oaks Picks & Key Horses — Friday, May 3, 2024 | Churchill Downs Full Card

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Kentucky Oaks

Chop Chop made it a positive closing day at Keeneland last Friday. The Conductor has been in the train station since, grinding over tape for the upcoming Kentucky Oaks and Derby weekend. At this point he is salivating and ready to rip Churchill Downs’ gullet out. The only thing that could throw a wrench in his plans is the weather. Please pony gods keep if fast and firm for Friday and Saturday. Mr. Ductor begs of you. He’ll do the rest. Skip.

Race 3: 1 Mile. OC 80000n2x

#5 Injunction (5/1) – This gelding ran much better than it looks last time on turf, with a heinous ride and trip. He was parked 3-wide and uncovered the whole way around and still hung on for 4th. Now making his 3rd start off the layoff he switches back to dirt where he’s run his best races. Injunction has plenty of numbers to run back to that can beat this field and looks to be rounding into form nicely. He’ll get the train in motion.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Fasig-Tipton La Troienne

#4 Idiomatic (6/5) – Nothing creative here in the first Grade 1 of the day. This is a strong field, but the Conductor trusts the reigning Distaff champ and Brad Cox at Churchill Downs. This mare will get the job done.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. G2 Alysheba Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Call Me Fast (20/1) – The Conductor thinks this bomb can win this race and will certainly be his key in the verticals. He had a perfect prep off the bench at Keeneland last time sprinting. He had a wide trip behind a slow pace and ran a solid 4th. With that race under his belt, Call Me Fast now stretches out to a route and gets a massive rider upgrade from Leparoux to Prat. His figures last year routing fit with this group and with a favorable trip he his dangerous.

Kentucky Oaks Churchill Downs

Race 10: 1 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Edgewood Stakes

#6 Pounce (10/1) – This filly was bet to favoritism last time in the G2 Appalachian. Her poor performance that day can be completely excused. She was hung wide and pressing a quick pace around both turns and had absolutely no chance. The Conductor is a bit surprised Castellano is still aboard her after that journey. She draws a much better post here and is guaranteed to get a much improved trip. If she is indeed double digit odds, Pounce is a massive overlay. She has as good a chance as any in this evenly matched field.

Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Longines Kentucky Oaks

#3 Where’s My Ring (15/1) – This is a contentious running of the Oaks and the Conductor is having a difficult time separating the top contenders. However, this filly is certainly the value of the race if she is near this morning line price. She handled a weak field in the Gazelle Stakes last time and is being overlooked. The Conductor likes her steady progression this year and she’s the only filly in the field with a win at this 1 1/8 mile distance.  While this field is contentious, it’s not a very fast Kentucky Oaks group speed figure wise. Another incremental step forward for Where’s My Ring along with a good trip and she can get light up the tote at a juicy number.