Month: August 2024

Saratoga Saturday Picks — Prioress Stakes Day (August 31, 2024) | Best Bets & Analysis

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A racehorse with a jockey in a red and white uniform galloping ahead on a racetrack, showcasing speed and competition.

Another Friday at Saratoga that causes the Conductor to lay awake at night staring at his ceiling fan. No excuses, cap harder. Skip.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F. G3 Prioress Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Brightwork (9/2) – The heavy favorite in here, #7 Two Sharp (7/5), is exiting a blowout win vs maidens. She ran a very fast figure that day, but had an easy trip vs weak competition. Brightwork was undefeated in four starts sprinting last year, and only faltered when they stretched her out vs Grade 1 company. She finally returns to the track in 2024 and has been working her eyeballs out at Saratoga. Trainer John Ortiz is a ridiculous 5/8 at the Saratoga meet and is ready to unleash his best filly. Brightwork is going to blow by Two Sharp like she is standing still.

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Race 11: 7 Furlongs. F.G1 Spinaway Stakes

#3 Sherbini (8/1) – This filly looks like she regressed last time, but she showed a serious turn of foot against a speed favoring track. She was too far back early, but made a eye-catching move entering the stretch and sustained her run for 2nd. Sherbini was still green that day and has plenty of room for improvement making just her 3rd career start. The Conductor sees her getting a nice stalking trip behind a hot pace and finishing best in the stretch. She’ll appreciate the added distance today, while the others in here will be fading late.

Race 12: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.G2 Flower Bowl Stakes

#4 Eternal Hope (5/1) – This filly got one of the few poor rides by Prat this meet. She chased the Chad Brown rabbit in the Glenn Falls Stakes and set the race up for #7 McKulik (3/1). There is no entry mate for Chad Brown today, or any other horse with an ounce of early speed. Eternal Hope will be able to dictate the pace of this race and have the jump on the favorites as they turn for home. Hope is the most important thing a passenger can have.

Saratoga Friday Picks — August 30, 2024 | Best Bets & Final Weekend Handicapping

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A racehorse galloping on a track with a jockey, dust flying, showcasing speed and power during a sunset.

Another frustrating Thursday at Saratoga. With rain in the forecast tomorrow, we need to capitalize today. Don’t want, need. C’mon Conductor. Skip.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.Mdn 90k

#2 Shoot the Waves (15/1) – This colt took money in his debut and was severely bothered at the start. He didn’t do much running after that, but that race can be completely ignored. Now Maker stretches him out to a route for the 1st time and puts the blinkers on him. We still have no idea how good this colt is, and will get at least double the price today than he was last time. Santana is also 4/9 riding for Maker this meet with a +$3.20 ROI.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.Mdn 90k

#4 Orie (9/2) – This colt is another Maker horse exiting the same race as Shoot the Waves. He was also slammed at the start that race, but he was able to rally for 3rd. Maker adds blinkers and stretches Orie out to a route today, the exact same move as he’s doing with Shoot the Waves. If Shoot the Waves fires in race 2, it bodes well for Orie later in the card.

Race 12: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.Mdn 90k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 Six Fortyfive (6/1) – This gelding’s turf debut at this level two starts back caught the Conductor’s eye. He chased 3-wide uncovered around both turns and backstretch and still got up for 2nd, galloping out in front of the pack. He was best in that race and Atras thrust him up in class to a stakes race as a result. The stakes proved too tough a group for him last time, so now he returns to the maiden ranks. The 10 post is a concern for the Conductor, but he trusts Franco to give him a fair chance. The Conductor will lean n Six Fortyfive to close out the day.

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Saratoga Thursday Picks — August 29, 2024 | Best Bets & Handicapping Analysis

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Thoroughbred racehorses galloping on a dirt track during a horse race, showcasing speed and athleticism.

Frustrating Wednesday for the Conductor. The bombs came home and he didn’t capitalize the way he should have. Especially with Justheart at in the finale, who he mentioned on yesterday’s podcast. New day, clear mind, full heart. clean coal. Skip.

Race 1: 6½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 170k

#9 Papa’s Nico Boy (8/1) – This is a weak group and this filly is the first time starter the Conductor likes best. She’s bred for the turf, unlike many in this field, and is working well. This is also trainer Edward Barker’s specialty. His small barn wins at a 26% clip with 2-year-olds.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) MC 75000

#7 Steadfast Resolve (4/1) – The George Weaver barn has been beyond ice cold since his suspension. However, the Conductor thinks he can get a win with the class dropper here. This colt ran better than it looks last time, closing into a very slow pace vs a much tougher group. He’ll be an overlay in a race with two Chad Brown runners.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) G3 With Anticipation Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Tenacious Leader (10/1) – This colt has been hammered at the windows in his first two starts. Pletcher tried to stretch him out on the turf last time, but the race got rained off. Tenacious leader romped on the dirt that day and has posted a bullet work on the turf since. His breeding suggests he will step forward on the lawn and if he does he’ll be mighty tough in here. Time for him to mow.

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Saratoga Wednesday Picks — August 28, 2024 | Best Bets & Closing Week Handicapping

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An elderly man in a cap stands beside a horse, showcasing a serene moment between human and animal in a natural setting.

After a solid Sunday at Saratoga, the Conductor is itching for closing week. Only a few days left to make Toga pay for all of its sins. Let’s Ride.

Race 3: 1 Mile. S.Mdn 90k

#8 Concorde Spirit (9/2) – This colt ran solid last time, closing behind a slow pace going 6 furlongs. He doesn’t have the early speed to be competitive sprinting, but looks like a horse that will take a big step forward with added distance. Now with two sprints under his belt. the Conductor sees Concorde Spirit running his best going 1 mile for the first time today.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Clm 32000

#10 Kingdom (8/1) – This gelding is the quickest early and is taking a big class drop here. A drop like this would usually give the Conductor pause, but not for Jacobson at Saratoga. This is the type of move where he picks up wins at the Spa. Jacobson’s top rider Vazquez hops aboard as well.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.P. G Johnson Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Lemonpeppasteppa (12/1) – The Conductor thinks this filly has the ability to pull off the upset today. He’s been impressed with both of her starts sprinting on the turf. In both races, she’s been forced to check and still has re-rallied after losing momentum. Now she stretches out to a route for the first time, and this is trainer Jorge Delgado’s strength. With 30 1st time routers this year, he’s winning at a 27% clip with a +$0.35 ROI. Lemonpeppasteppa will be the key to the Conductor’s day.

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Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

The Pegasus World Cup is here and the Conductor is ready to fire. He hasn't liked a card at Gulfstream this much maybe ever. Don't listen to this if you haven't signed up at Iron Bets yet with this link. You're not allowed. Skip.
  1. Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025
  2. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/23/2024
  3. Churchill and Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/16/2024

Saratoga Sunday Picks — August 25, 2024 | Best Bets & Post-Travers Analysis

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Four racehorses with jockeys in colorful silks competing on a dirt track, showcasing speed and athleticism in a horse racing event.

That was a rough Travers Saturday for the Conductor. He wasn’t right about almost anything. However, it’s a new day and he likes this Saratoga card much more from a betting perspective. The opportunities are there. Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.S.Alw 95000n1x

#1 Busy Morning (6/1) – This filly was absolutely loaded behind horses entering the stretch last time and Irad never found a seam. He never even asked her that day and she galloped out well in front of the pack. The Conductor has been waiting for Busy Morning to return to the track, hopefully she gets a better trip today.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. F.S.Fleet Indian Stakes

#4 Dolomite (5/1) – This NY bred filly has yet to run a bad race and is steadily improving. She impressed the Conductor two starts back finishing 3rd in a Grade 2 race. She got a nice prep under her belt last time and now looks primed to fire a peak effort 2nd off a layoff. Dolomite has the most upside of the contenders in here.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. S.200K Funny Cide Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Mi Bago (15/1) – This colt will be a much lower price after the scratches, but should still be an overlay. He debuted at Colonial a few weeks ago and won easily at 3/5 for a 6% trainer. He’s since moved to the red-hot Casse barn and is quick enough to get the early lead today. Casse horses have not been tiring in the stretch at Saratoga. Gate to wire.

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Saratoga Travers Day Picks — Saturday, August 24, 2024 | Full Card Analysis & Best Bets

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A dynamic horse race featuring multiple jockeys in colorful silks riding thoroughbred horses on a dirt track.

Sunshine and a 14 race Travers Stakes day card can cure any broken soul. The problem is, if you leave the track broke it’s no fun regardless. Don’t worry passengers, the Conductor has got you covered. Aim small, miss small, but really never miss at all. Skip.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) OC 80000n1x

#1 Crystal Quest (8/1)

#4 Spirit Prince (9/2)

Race 4: 1 Mile. OC 62500n2x

#6 Can’t Hush This (5/2)

#5 Jace’s Road (7/2)

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#1A Bring Theband Home (7/5)

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) S.Alw 95000n1x

#2 Whistler’s Honor (10/1)

#5 Rhetorical (2/1)

Race 9: 1½ Mile. (Inner Turf) G1 Sword Dancer

#2 Measured Time (7/5)

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. F.G1 Ballerina Handicap

#5 Scylla (7/2)

#4 Society (4/1)

Race 12: 7 Furlongs. G1 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes

#5 Prince of Monaco (4/1)

#6 Timberlake (5/1)

#10 Jefferson Street (12/1)

Race 13: 1 1/4 Mile. Travers G1 Draftkings Travers Stakes

#2 Sierra Leone (7/2) – The Conductor has faded Sierra Leone while he has continued to settle for the minor awards this year. However, today has to be his day. The three other favorites all want to be forwardly placed, and the other Chad Brown entry, #3 Unmatched Wisdom (6/1), will ensure there is a hot pace for him to run at. Sierra Leone will get a perfect setup for his closing kick, and will be a better price than he’s been lately. While the passengers are hopping off his bandwagon, the Conductor is jumping on.

#4 Corporate Power (15/1) – The Conductor loves this colt’s steady progression and he looks like a horse that will relish the added distance today. He should be in an ideal position mid-pack behind the speed, and will sustain his run late. Shug has plenty of past success in the Travers and Corporate Power is a new face in a group of mediocre 3-year-olds. The Conductor will be all over a 2-4 exacta in the Travers, and thinks he has shot at pulling a big upset as well.

Del Mar Friday Picks — August 23, 2024 | Best Bets & Handicapping Analysis

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A dynamic horse racing scene featuring multiple horses and jockeys in colorful attire competing on a racetrack.

1/3 Thursday at Del Mar with a 9/1 winner made it a very profitable trip to the west coast. Let’s keep the pedal down. Skip.

Race 4: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 75k

#7 Kale’s Angel (5/1) – This colt was hammered in his debut despite Peter Miller’s poor numbers with 1st time starters on the turf. He set the pace before tiring that day, but the race had a closer flow. The Conductor doesn’t think this is a very strong field and sees him taking a big step forward in his 2nd career start.

Race 6: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 75k

#8 Running Spartan (10/1) – This gelding was pinballed at the break and finished well down the stretch last time. That was his first start on turf and that race was dominated by the frontrunners. He showed he has early speed in his his debut on dirt two back, and gets a rider upgrade to Rispoli today. Running Spartan looks primed to run a peak effort here.

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Race 7: 1 Mile. S.OC 20000n1x

#4 Be Punctual (12/1) – The Conductor likes two prices in this race. This gelding reminds him a lot of the 9/1 winner yesterday. Switching from the turf last time, he won nicely in his first start going 1 mile on the dirt. His speed figure was competitive with this group and he may have finally found what he like to do best. Be Punctual should take another step forward here.

#6 Logon to Win (10/1) – There isn’t much early speed in this dirt race, and this gelding is exiting turf sprints. He’s won sprinting on the dirt before and will stretch out in distance for the first time. The Conductor is expecting Berrios to send him right to the front and that makes him very dangerous. Any horse with the lead on this speed favoring Del Mar dirt track can’t be ignored.

Saratoga Friday Picks — August 23, 2024 | Best Bets & Travers Week Analysis

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A racehorse with a jockey in pink attire leading a horse race, showcasing speed and competition on a dirt track.

0/2 Thursday with two poor performances at Saratoga. Not the way the Conductor wanted to start Travers week. Thoughts and prayers to any passenger who was negatively affected by the heinous DQ call in race 7 as well. NYRA is really testing their customers. Let’s make them pay today, Skip.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. Alw 110000n1x

#1A Defuskie Island (8/1) – This gelding was claimed last time out of the ice cold Rudy Rodriguez barn. The Conductor really liked his last race, where he finished strongly behind a slow pace. He’s yet to win at this level, but has been close and run multiple races above par. This isn’t the strongest field and if he improves at all with the barn upgrade, he’s a major contender. 5/1 or better is more than fair.

Race 10: 1 8 Mile. F,G1 Personal Ensign Stakes

#4 Idiomatic (4/5) – Only a 5 horse field is disappointing, but the Conductor thinks Idiomatic is a free square. #5 Randomized (8/5) was able to beat her by a nose two back, but took advantage of a heavy speed bias and much better trip that day. Idiomatic should get an ideal trip today, pressing Randomized and grinding her down in the stretch. Only Geroux can keep this mare from winning today.

Race 11: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.Alw 95000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Quick Power Nap (12/1) – This is a very weak NY bred allowance field. The Conductor thinks its ripe for a price. This mare ran a solid closing 2nd at this level two back, and ran better than it looks last time with a poor trip. In that last race she broke slow, was pinched back, then rushed up and chased 3-wide on the turn. Today, she gets a major rider upgrade to Prat and there is enough early speed in this 12-horse field to set it up for her closing style. The Conductor sees Prat giving her a great ride and refueling the trains coal supply heading into Travers Saturday.

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Del Mar Thursday Picks — August 22, 2024 | Best Bets & Summer Meet Handicapping

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A thrilling horse racing scene featuring multiple jockeys in colorful attire racing on a dirt track during sunset.

The Conductor will be posting his California plays moving forward. Del Mar has been a miles better product than Saratoga this summer. Hopefully, Santa Anita can carry the baton with full field turf racing this winter. Doubt it, Skip.

Race 3: 1 Mile. Mdn 75k

#1 Concord Bridge (3/1) – This ridgling was 850k at the Keeneland sale and was bet to favoritism in his first try routing last fall. He disappointed that day after a poor start, but something clearly went wrong as he was sent to the sidelines. He returns today making his first start as a 3-year old and gets Lasix for the first time. With a red hot barn and the best rider on the circuit aboard, the Conductor thinks he’s ready to fire. Concord Bridge has the upside to upset the two mediocre favorites in this maiden race.

Race 4: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 75k

#7 Tequilaandtherapy (8/1) – This filly ran better than it looks last time in her turf debut at Ellis Park. She chased the pace 4-wide and uncovered and rightfully tired down the stretch. She should improve off that effort and the Conductor likes that she’s shortening a 1/2 furlong in distance. Trainer Doug O’neill is 24% with 54 2nd time turf starters this year, with a +$0.11 ROI

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Race 7: 1 Mile. Alw 50000s

#2 Shot of Courage (12/1) – This gelding popped in his 1st try on dirt last time. While he was facing much weaker competition that day, the speed figure he earned is close to par for this level. The Conductor likes when when horses show a clear affinity for a new surface. Now making just his 2nd career start on dirt, there is still room for improvement. Even if he can only split the two heavy favorites in this race, he can inject value into the exacta.

Saratoga Thursday Picks — August 22, 2024 | Best Bets & Travers Week Handicapping

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A racehorse galloping on a dirt track with a jockey wearing a tan helmet and blue silks, showcasing speed and athleticism.

The Conductor was on the rails for a few days, but thankfully we’re back in the train station for Travers week. After another Wednesday where the NYRA takes the races off the turf with no rain, the Conductor is ready to fire. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 90k

#10 Vehemente (6/1) – This filly was absolutely hammered at the windows in her debut last time, going off at 2/5. She broke slow from the rail that day and that was all she wrote. The Conductor thought she still ran well after the poor start. Now she returns to the track with a nice outside post and trainer Joe Sharp stakes the blinkers off her. He’s 21% with a +$0.16 ROI this year with this move. Vehemente has much more talent than she showed July 17th and we get to collect at a better price today.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.S.OC 45000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Snowy Evening (10/1) – This group of New York bred fillies have taken turns beating each other in allowance races over the last few years. While Snowy Evening’s current form doesn’t look great, she beat the morning line favorite, #4 Overreacting (5/2), last fall. In her last race vs many of these same contenders, she had a trip from hell. She was fanned 4-wide and uncovered into the first turn and stayed there all the way around. The last time Snowy Evening got a fair trip at this level, she ran a good closing 2nd behind a slow pace. If Johnny V can give her another chance to run her race today, she’ll be right there when they hit the wire.

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