Category: Churchill Downs

Churchill Downs picks and handicapping from The Pony Conductor. Kentucky Derby prep coverage, Derby Day full-card picks, Kentucky Oaks, Stephen Foster Handicap, Matt Winn, Pat Day Mile, and every stakes race at Historic Churchill Downs. Race-by-race analysis every race weekend.

Derby Day Picks – Churchill Downs

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Group of jockeys riding horses nearing the finish line at Kentucky Derby race

Average Oaks Day for the Conductor with a brutal 2nd in the Oaks. Less chalk today, more bombs. Skip.

Featured Play – Race 12, Kentucky Derby

Win: #18 Further Ado (currently 6/1)

The Conductor is going with #18 Further Ado in the Derby, currently at 6/1. He’s the most talented horse in the race, and the Conductor sees Johnny V giving him a good ride. The race dynamics have changed a lot with the scratches. Cheap speed has drawn in from the outside, and there will be a quicker pace than anticipated earlier in the week.

Longshot to Hit the Board – #11 Incredibolt (26/1)

If you’re looking for a longshot to hit the board, the Conductor’s favorite price at the moment is #11 Incredibolt at 26/1. He dusted a weak field last time. However, he didn’t have a great trip and ran a big late pace figure. He can make the trifecta and superfecta pay.

The Full Card

RaceABCD
26, 72, 4, 8, 9, 11——
3134, 5, 9, 12, 14——
454——
573, 94, 5, 11—
662, 4, 10, 11——
728——
864, 5, 8, 9——
9 3, 4, 125, 6, 7, 10——
10621, 5, 7—
11 5, 6, 71, 3, 4, 9, 10——
12 (Kentucky Derby)186, 8, 11, 121, 7, 10, 153, 14, 16, 17, 19
138———
1411, 123, 7, 8, 9, 14——

Good luck Passengers

Oaks Day Picks – Churchill Downs

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Horses racing at Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs with a large crowd

Below are the Conductor’s plays for the rest of the card, headlined by a live longshot in the Kentucky Oaks.

Featured Play — Race 13, Kentucky Oaks

Win: #5 Meaning (currently 8/1)

The Oaks is wide open this year, and the Conductor is taking a shot with #5 Meaning at a square price of 8/1. She was up close to a hot pace last time out and still finished the job. There isn’t much speed in this race and she should get the jump on the field as they turn for home. Meaning has every chance to hold off the closers in the lane. Lets fill the caboose with coal for Derby Day. Skip

The Rest of the Card

RaceAB
392, 10, 11
41, 73, 4, 11
511, 101, 5, 6
65, 62, 8, 12
73, 4, 65, 9
86, 83, 4, 9
982, 3, 7
1063, 5
117, 91, 5, 8
124, 92, 3, 5, 8, 11
1352, 9, 10, 11

2026 Kentucky Derby Picks, Contenders & Handicapping — The Conductor’s Guide to the Run for the Roses

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The first Saturday in May. Twenty three-year-olds line up at Churchill Downs to run a mile and a quarter under the most scrutiny any horse will see in its life. Half the country watches. Most of it bets. Almost none of it handicaps.

This is the Conductor’s living guide to the 2026 Kentucky Derby. Contenders, pace scenario, prep-race analysis, and pick updates as the field is finalized. Bookmark this page — it gets updated every week between now and post time.

What the Kentucky Derby actually is

The Kentucky Derby is the first leg of the Triple Crown. It is run at 1¼ miles on the dirt at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on the first Saturday in May, for three-year-olds only. The field is capped at 20 starters — making it the largest race most of these horses have ever run in, and a pace scenario unlike anything on the calendar.

Entry is governed by the Kentucky Derby Points System. Horses earn points by running well in a series of designated Derby prep races from the previous fall through April. The top 20 point-earners make the gate.

The 2026 Derby prep trail

The Derby prep season runs from the fall of the prior year through the last major preps in April. The biggest points-earning preps on the 2026 trail were:

  • Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) — the first serious juvenile championship and an early Derby future-book mover.
  • Rebel Stakes (G2) — Oaklawn Park, early March.
  • Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) — Gulfstream Park, early March. Our Gulfstream Park coverage is here.
  • Tampa Bay Derby (G2) — Tampa Bay Downs, early March.
  • Louisiana Derby (G2) — Fair Grounds, late March.
  • Florida Derby (G1) — Gulfstream Park, late March / early April.
  • Blue Grass Stakes (G1) — Keeneland, early April.
  • Santa Anita Derby (G1) — Santa Anita, early April.
  • Wood Memorial (G2) — Aqueduct, early April.
  • Arkansas Derby (G1) — Oaklawn Park, mid-April.
  • Lexington Stakes (G3) — Keeneland, mid-April. Final points-earning prep.

How to handicap the Derby

The Derby is a different animal than any other race these horses have run. Four things to keep front of mind:

1. The pace always melts down

Twenty horses, a 1¼-mile distance almost none of them have seen, and adrenaline. The pace is almost always faster than it should be. Closers and mid-pack stalkers have won far more Derbies in the modern era than frontrunners.

2. Post position matters more than usual

Post 1 (the rail) and posts 17–20 (the far outside) have historically been burial grounds. The rail horse gets buried in the pack. The wide horses burn energy getting over. The sweet spot is typically posts 5–15.

3. Pedigree matters at 1¼ miles

Most of these colts haven’t been beyond 1⅛ miles. A third of them will not get the distance. Look at the dam side — proven distance sires like Tapit, Curlin, Into Mischief, and Uncle Mo produce horses that finish their races. Quick-closing sires that mostly get sprinters do not.

4. Trust the prep form, not the hype

The Derby winner has almost always run a sub-100 Beyer in one of its last two preps, broken well, and shown the ability to rate. Horses that need a perfect pace to win don’t win Derbies. Horses that can overcome traffic do.

2026 Kentucky Derby picks & contenders

This section updates weekly as the prep trail concludes. Final picks, best bets, and exotic ticket construction will post the Thursday before Derby Day.

Check back for:

  • The Conductor’s top-3 ranking as the field is finalized.
  • Full pace scenario breakdown (who’s on the lead, who’s pressing, who’s closing).
  • Post-position analysis once the draw happens.
  • Value plays vs. the morning line.
  • Exacta, trifecta, and superfecta ticket constructions.
  • The Conductor’s bet-the-farm best bet.

How to bet the Kentucky Derby

The Derby is the one day of the year when everyone bets. That matters, because it creates value. Casual money floods in on the names — past Derby winners’ sons, horses with good stories, the favorite. That pushes live longshots to bigger prices than they deserve.

  • Win pools usually have the worst value on the day — the chalk gets hammered.
  • Exactas often have the best value when there’s a strong chalk-bomb combination.
  • Trifectas and superfectas are where casual money overbets obvious combinations. Construct tickets that include a longshot anchored by a solid closer.
  • Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences ending with the Derby are where the sharpest money goes — carryover from earlier races in the sequence rewards patient ticket building.

New to handicapping? Start with our beginner’s guide to handicapping a horse race before you dig into the Derby form.

Where to follow along

The Conductor publishes picks every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday during Derby prep season — Keeneland, Gulfstream Park, Churchill Downs, and Santa Anita. Follow every prep race and you’ll head into Derby Day with a real read on this year’s class.

Subscribe to The Conductor’s Scroll — free to board. First Class passengers get the full Derby Day card, the Conductor’s final ticket construction, and every exotic play 48 hours before post time.

2024 Kentucky Derby Picks & Key Horses — Saturday, May 4, 2024 | Full Card Battle Plan

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Kentucky Derby

Please hold the rain off Friday and Saturday pony gods. If the slop comes, then it’s up to us foolish passengers to cap on our own. We don’t need that on racing’s biggest day. Here’s the Conductor’s Kentucky Derby battle card. Skip.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Our Shot (10/1) – This gelding drew the 10 post last time in the Shakertown Stakes and it cost him. He made a massive 5-wide move on the turn and the Conductor was impressed that he was able to sustain his run for 4th. The Conductor would argue he could have won that race with a cleaner trip and we’ll find out if he’s right today. Our Shot gets a better post and is taking on many of the same foes. Best of all, he’ll be a better price.

2024 Kentucky Derby

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes

#2 Walkathon (10/1) – This is a very weak Grade 2 field in the Conductor’s opinion. #11 Coppice (5/1) is the clear class of the group, but she draws a tough post and will be a short price while making her first start in the US. Of the Americans, the Conductor likes Walkathon quite a bit. She showed real talent in 2022 and is finally rounding back into form. She just missed two back and ran better than it looks last time taking on tougher. Walkathon ran evenly in the G1 Jenny Wily in a complete merry go round race, with the winner going gate to wire. She looks to get a much more favorable trip here, saving ground and stalking a contested early pace. Most importantly, she’ll finally get Leparoux off her back. Hernandez hops aboard and she will appreciate the better pilot.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. G1 Churchill Downs Stakes

#4  Mr. Wireless (6/1) – This gelding ran admirably last year routing, he just couldn’t quite finish off his races. He was crying for a cutback to one turn and got his wish last time off the bench. He obliterated an allowance field and ran a speed figure that can put him in the winner’s circle today. Making his 2nd start off the layoff, the Conductor doesn’t see how you can’t bet this horse if this morning line is close to accurate.

Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. G1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic

#1 Integration (5/1) – This colt handled the some of the contenders in here last year and his form has been muddied since. He’s had two tough trips in a row and now the Conductor is buying while many less skilled passengers will be selling. Last time in the Makers Mark Mile, he made a strong move while wide to get up for 3rd over a yielding turf course, at a distance too short for him. Now making his 3rd start of the year with a nice rail draw, he’s going to fire a peak effort.

Race 12: 1 1/4 Mile. 1 1/4 Kentucky Derby

#17 Fierceness (5/2) – The 2024 Kentucky Derby goes through one horse. He is significantly faster than this field and if he runs his race it’s over. However, he’s thrown in two bad races when circumstances haven’t gone his way. The Conductor is normally allergic to chalk and it’s hard to stomach short price on a horse who has shown flaws. He’s just so much more talented than this group. The way to play this Derby is to single and press him on top of most of your tickets, and then have a few backups that don’t have him hitting the board. He’s either going to dominate or finish 10th. More likely than not Fierceness gets a patented Johnny V Ride pressing a moderate pace and wins this race handily.

#2 Sierra Leone (3/1) – If you’re betting this horse to win, then you need to find a new game. He is a solid closer but is not in the same league as Fierceness and will be a similar price. He is likely to hit the board, but if Sierra Leone wins the Conductor will spend his Saturday night in the sewer.

#4 Catching Freedom (8/1) – You need to be very weary of the two improving Brad Cox runners in here. Catching Freedom showed a nice turn of foot in the Louisiana Derby and will be finishing well late.

#7 Honor Marie (20/1) – This Colt was outkicked by Catching Freedom last time, but still ran a solid late pace figure closing into a moderate pace. He will have no problem getting the distance and the Conductor will use him underneath in the verticals at a big price.

#8 Just A Touch (10/1) – He’s the other Brad Cox horse and the most likely to jump up and upset Fierceness in the Conductor’s opinion. Stretching out in distance last time he pressed a blistering pace in the Bluegrass and did well to hold onto 2nd. The Conductor doesn’t see the pace being too hot in this Kentucky Derby and this colt is moving in the right direction.

#11 Forever Young (10/1) – If you remember last year’s Kentucky Derby, the Conductor touted the Japanese invader Derma Sotogake. He missed the break and still finished 6th that day and then went on to finish 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (So the Conductor was right all along although he got nothing to show for it). Japan has the best racing in the world today and they have another solid horse shipping in this year. The Conductor will certainly be using Forever Young underneath Fierceness and he can win if Fierceness flops. A Japanese horse is going to win a Kentucky Derby sooner rather than later.

#15 Domestic Product (30/1) – This is the bomb the Conductor is most intrigued by. He’s yet to run a fast speed figure, but that’s only because he’s been closing into insanely slow paces. The Tampa Bay Derby was a complete crawl up front and Domestic Product still passed 5 horses to win easy. His late pace figures are enormous and Irad will likely put him in a position to run his best. He can light up the exotics.

2024 Kentucky Oaks Picks & Key Horses — Friday, May 3, 2024 | Churchill Downs Full Card

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Kentucky Oaks

Chop Chop made it a positive closing day at Keeneland last Friday. The Conductor has been in the train station since, grinding over tape for the upcoming Kentucky Oaks and Derby weekend. At this point he is salivating and ready to rip Churchill Downs’ gullet out. The only thing that could throw a wrench in his plans is the weather. Please pony gods keep if fast and firm for Friday and Saturday. Mr. Ductor begs of you. He’ll do the rest. Skip.

Race 3: 1 Mile. OC 80000n2x

#5 Injunction (5/1) – This gelding ran much better than it looks last time on turf, with a heinous ride and trip. He was parked 3-wide and uncovered the whole way around and still hung on for 4th. Now making his 3rd start off the layoff he switches back to dirt where he’s run his best races. Injunction has plenty of numbers to run back to that can beat this field and looks to be rounding into form nicely. He’ll get the train in motion.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Fasig-Tipton La Troienne

#4 Idiomatic (6/5) – Nothing creative here in the first Grade 1 of the day. This is a strong field, but the Conductor trusts the reigning Distaff champ and Brad Cox at Churchill Downs. This mare will get the job done.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. G2 Alysheba Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Call Me Fast (20/1) – The Conductor thinks this bomb can win this race and will certainly be his key in the verticals. He had a perfect prep off the bench at Keeneland last time sprinting. He had a wide trip behind a slow pace and ran a solid 4th. With that race under his belt, Call Me Fast now stretches out to a route and gets a massive rider upgrade from Leparoux to Prat. His figures last year routing fit with this group and with a favorable trip he his dangerous.

Kentucky Oaks Churchill Downs

Race 10: 1 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Edgewood Stakes

#6 Pounce (10/1) – This filly was bet to favoritism last time in the G2 Appalachian. Her poor performance that day can be completely excused. She was hung wide and pressing a quick pace around both turns and had absolutely no chance. The Conductor is a bit surprised Castellano is still aboard her after that journey. She draws a much better post here and is guaranteed to get a much improved trip. If she is indeed double digit odds, Pounce is a massive overlay. She has as good a chance as any in this evenly matched field.

Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Longines Kentucky Oaks

#3 Where’s My Ring (15/1) – This is a contentious running of the Oaks and the Conductor is having a difficult time separating the top contenders. However, this filly is certainly the value of the race if she is near this morning line price. She handled a weak field in the Gazelle Stakes last time and is being overlooked. The Conductor likes her steady progression this year and she’s the only filly in the field with a win at this 1 1/8 mile distance.  While this field is contentious, it’s not a very fast Kentucky Oaks group speed figure wise. Another incremental step forward for Where’s My Ring along with a good trip and she can get light up the tote at a juicy number.

Kentucky Derby 2023 Picks & Breakdown — May 6, 2023 | The Conductor’s Derby Day Plays

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A racehorse with a jockey in a blue and yellow uniform galloping at the Dubai World Cup event, showcasing speed and athleticism.

A 30/1 exacta to kick off Oaks Friday for the Conductor had him out for blood. However, his water pistol came up empty the rest of the card. Onto the big day. This has been one of the strangest weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby the Conductor can remember. Four scratches and now a 19 horse field. Only Mr. Ductor can help us in a race like this, Let’s Ride.

#1 Hit Show (30/1) – Exiting the Wood Memorial, the weakest prep race, this colt certainly won’t win. However, he does have strong late pace figures and will get a ground saving trip near the back of the pack. He’ll be off everyone’s tickets and the Conductor can see him sneaking up the rail to hit the superfecta. At best he finishes 4th.

#2 Verifying (15/1)

He’s steadily progressing and ran very well in the Blue Grass. There’s nothing to knock and he wouldn’t shock the Conductor if he pulled the upset. But, like most of the others in here he’s nothing special, the Conductor will be using him underneath only. At best he finishes 2nd.

#3 Two Phil’s (12/1) – He’s coming in with the fastest American speed figure, but it was over synthetic. Can he translate it to dirt? The Conductor says no at a relatively short price. He’s scared to chuck him out of the trifecta completely because he does have upside, but we have to make stands in this race. At best he finishes 2nd.

#4 Confidence Game (20/1) – He’s been working well since his win in the sloppy Rebel over two months ago. Winning is asking too much, but he’s a bomb the Conductor won’t chuck out of the trifecta. He’ll be forwardly placed in a Kentucky Derby without a ton of early speed. Desormeax does well with runners off these types of breaks too. He’s 19% with a +$1.22 ROI with starters returning off 46-90 day layoffs. At best he finishes 3rd.

#5 Tapit Trice (5/1)

He can win this race and has done nothing wrong. He’s shown he can overcome trouble and has run strong late pace figures every time. He’ll be on a few backup tickets for the Conductor, but he wont be leaning on him at a short price.

#6 Kingsbarns (12/1) – He set the slowest early pace imaginable in the Louisiana Derby and had no choice but to win. He’ll be forced to use much more early speed and will have to show a new dimension for the first time. He’s not for the the Conductor. Toss

#7 Reincarnate (50/1) – The Conductor would love to use him, but there’s not much to like. He looks to be a cut below the contenders. toss.

#8 Mage (15/1)

The Conductor is higher on this horse than most of the public. He overcame a very poor start in the Florida Derby and made a eye catching middle move. If he can finally break well today the Conductor thinks he’ll be in the mix at the top of the stretch. The distance may be just a little to far for him. Mr. Ductor won’t talk you off him, but at best he finishes 2nd on his tickets.

#11 Disarm (30/1) – He’s a tricky one for the Conductor. He ran really well in the Louisiana Derby two starts back where he closed strongly behind the aforementioned crawling pace. However, his Lexington effort left a lot to be desired. The Conductor may use him in 4th in the superfecta, but no higher.

#12 Jace’s Road (50-1) – The Conductor thinks Cox will send this horse with his major contenders being closers. He’ll show early speed and then fade to the back of the pack. Toss.

#13 Sun Thunder (50/1) – He needs to step forward to hit the board and there are too many other solid closers in the field to warrant consideration from the Ductor. Toss

#14 Angel of Empire (8/1)

He continues to progress for Cox and another legitimate contender that is tough to knock. He can win this race, but will have to do it from the back of the back. The Conductor is slightly against him at a short price. He will allow him to finish 2nd and no better.

#15 Forte (3/1)

He’s the worst kind of favorite for the Ductor. The Conductor either wants to love him or hate him and he’s apathetic towards this colt. The Conductor thinks he’ll run well and hit the board. But, at a short price he’s a deep closer and the Ductor projects a moderate early pace. Another Derby favorite that will be looking to ruin the Ductor’s Day.

#16 Raise Cain (50/1) – Unless it’s muddy, the Conductor can’t make a case. Toss.

*Gullet Shot of the 2023 Kentucky Derby #17 Derma Sotogake (10/1)

“Mr. Ductor this is the longest thing I’ve read in weeks. I’m usually listen to audio books only on the train, when will you get to the horse you love?” Shut up and sit down passenger, we’re finally here. You can throw a blanket around 6 or 7 horses in this race that are tough to separate, but there is only one potential superstar. This Japanese import made a mockery of the UAE Derby and couldn’t have looked better doing it. Japan has dominated racing across the globe as of late and this year they stamp their dominance in the Kentucky Derby. The Conductor has been a sucker with the UAE shippers before, but this one’s different. He loved his work over the Churchill track and he looks to get a great trip tracking a moderate pace. He’s versatile enough to work his own trip and he’s more talented than the rest. Let sake be the Conductor’s Saturday Stew of Choice. Skip.

Kentucky Derby

#18 Rocket Can (30/1) – He’s a cut below this group and looks to get a wide trip with his running style. Toss.

#21 Cyclone Mischief (20/1) – The Conductor will like this colt when he cuts back in distance vs weaker, not today. Toss.

*Bonus 2023 Kentucky Derby Esophagus Slice #22 Mandarin Hero (20/1)

The Conductor was hoping the other Japanese colt would draw in and he got his wish. This colt is as gritty as they come and is on the improve. It doesn’t matter what the surface or distance, if you run up next to this boy he’s going to fight you tooth and nail to the wire. The Conductor liked his Santa Anita Derby effort and thinks he wins that race if they kept running another 1/8 of a mile…which they do today. If Derma Sotogake loses, the Conductor will be hoping its to his country mate.

Kentucky Derby

#23 King Russell (50/1) – The Conductor needs to rest before the big day. Toss.

Kentucky Derby Saturday Undercard Picks — May 6, 2023 | Derby Day Full Card at Churchill Downs

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Group of men in colorful suits at an event, one holding a drink and wearing a conductor's hat, showcasing vibrant fashion and fun atmosphere.

The Conductor’s head is spinning, three Kentucky Derby scratches and we’re not even at Oaks Day. This weekend is going to be a war, but a war we shall win. Start turning a jack, laying track, and pick up a shovel too. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 1 Mile. Knicks Go Overnight Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Three Technique (20/1) – This one turn mile is loaded with early pace and it looks ripe for an upset. Three Technique’s best races have come at this distance, including a 2nd by a neck at Churchill behind Cody’s Wish last summer. Cody’s Wish would be 1/5 in this race. They prepped Three technique off the bench for this race too, and it went exactly as planned. He  ran evenly at too short of a distance for him. Now, he stretches out to his best distance and looks to get an ideal pace scenario. The Conductor will be shocked if he doesn’t hit the trifecta at a juicy number.

Kentucky Derby

Race 8: 1 Mile. G2 Pat Day Mile Stakes

#7 Fort Bragg (9/2) – Another one turn mile, another race with a wicked pace. This is one of the Conductor’s favorite races every Derby undercard. He’s collected copious amounts of coal over the years from this affair, and this year looks no different. This colt looks primed for a cutback to one turn exiting the Kentucky Derby trail. He’s pressed hot paces against much tougher and proven he can’t get two turns against the top competition. There’s no shame in that, 9/2 is just fine in this spot.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. G1 Churchill Downs Stakes

#10 Endorsed (5/1) – The aforementioned #7 Cody’s Wish (4/5) is clearly the one to beat, but he’ll be up against it off the layoff and the pace scenario. This race has absolutely no early speed for a sprint. You could get into the stew and make a case for #8 Fortin Hill (20/1) to wire them. However, the Conductor thinks Gaffalione will be aggressive like last time and have Endorsed pressing the pace. Endorsed has turned into a new animal this year and will be tough to run down in the stretch if he gets the jump on Cody’s Wish. The Conductor will certainly take a shot at 5x the price.

Kentucky Oaks Friday Picks — May 5, 2023 | Oaks Day at Churchill Downs

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Two women wearing pink outfits and large decorative hats, smiling together at an event, with a black-and-white photo of an older man in a cap in between them.

Its officially Kentucky Derby week passengers and the Conductor hasn’t seen sunlight in days. I am so humbled that he bestows all of his knowledge on us for free. We truly are not worthy. Anyway, he’s crawled out of his capping lair and dropped his Kentucky Oaks Day work on my desk. Rumor has it, a Derby podcast will be up tomorrow too. Let’s pick up a couple hundred thousand Friday and roll it over into Saturday. Skip.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Modesty Stakes

#2 Didia (5/1) – This Argentinian star has steadily improved with each start in the states. She got the job done for the Conductor last time off the bench in impressive fashion. She draws well today and the Conductor will happily back her vs the Chad Brown favorites off layoffs. If you’re looking for even more value in the trifecta, #1 Sweet Dani Girl (12/1) will be all alone on the lead an can hang round for a piece.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.300K Unbridled Sidney Stakes

#2 Salvaje (20/1) – #11 Caravel (4/5) is clearly the one to beat, but she draws a tough outside post and this race is loaded with early speed. Salvaje is steadily progressing and will get a perfect setup. She’s one of the few closers in the field and looks primed to run her best in her 2nd start off a layoff. Even if Caravel is too much for this group, she can inject value by hitting the board.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Edgewood Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 Flashy Gem (10/1) – There is absolutely no speed in this Edgewood and this filly will be all alone on the lead. She romped to break her maiden on the front end last year on turf and has progressed on synthetic since. Her synthetic figures fit with this group and the Conductor sees them translating back to the turf with her breeding. Saez fits this mount perfectly too. He’ll be aggressive early and make them come and get her down the stretch.

Kentucky Oaks

Race 11: 1 1/8 F.G1 Longines Kentucky Oaks

#11 Defining Purpose (12/1) – The Conductor has a keen eye on the forecast this weekend. As of now, he thinks the rain will hold off and we’ll have a fast track on Friday. If it does rain, then erase everything you’re about to read from your small brains. This filly was beaten handily by the deserved favorite in this race, #7 Wet Paint (5/2), but both those races were on a sloppy track. Throw out those races and you can see a natural progression to her Ashland win in the form. She looks to get a nice trip again today, sitting just behind a contested early lead. The Conductor thinks she’s improving and her Ashland win wasn’t a fluke. He’ll be keying her in the verticals.

Churchill Downs Saturday Picks — April 29, 2023 | Derby Prep Weekend Best Bets

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A horse accompanied by a jockey in formal attire at Churchill Downs, showcasing the excitement of horse racing events.

Just when the Conductor gets the train rolling at Keeneland they end the meet, cowards. He’s been watching tape at Aqueduct the past few weeks in preparation for moving to New York, but with rain and terrible cards, he’s not going there quite yet. The Conductor knows its because the Derby is next week, but these cards are really pathetic for a Saturday. We’ll stay in Kentucky today and try to take advantage of the Keeneland shippers. Off to Churchill Downs we go, Skip.

Race 7: 1 1/4 Mile. F.Mdn 120k

#7 Corsini (5/2) – She broke slow and was well back behind a slow pace and speed favoring track last time. Despite that, she made up significant ground and galloped out in front of the rest after the wire. She should improve today at Churchill Downs making her second start routing and with a rider upgrade to Gaffalione.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 80000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Madrilena (6/1) – This mare has talent, but has trouble staying at the races. Her two best races have come on turf and she gets back the lawn today. Corrales gets back in the saddle, who’s ridden her best. She looks to get a great trip sitting just behind a contested lead. If she can run anything close to her last turf race at Kentucky Downs, she wins.

Churchill Downs

Race 10: 1 1/16  Mile. MC 30000

#2 Navy Cross (20/1) – In this wide open maiden claimer, the Conductor will take a swing with a bomb. This gelding broke slow per usual last time, but ran decent after that making up some distance on the leaders. He gets a rider upgrade to Lanerie today and he’ll save ground all the way around. Navy Cross will be finishing late while many are tiring late. If he’s not miles back early the Conductor’s knee will start to twitch.