Kentucky Derby Breakdown 5/6/23

A 30/1 exacta to kick off Oaks Friday for the Conductor had him out for blood. However, his water pistol came up empty the rest of the card. Onto the big day. This has been one of the strangest weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby the Conductor can remember. Four scratches and now a 19 horse field. Only Mr. Ductor can help us in a race like this, Let’s Ride.

#1 Hit Show (30/1) – Exiting the Wood Memorial, the weakest prep race, this colt certainly won’t win. However, he does have strong late pace figures and will get a ground saving trip near the back of the pack. He’ll be off everyone’s tickets and the Conductor can see him sneaking up the rail to hit the superfecta. At best he finishes 4th.

#2 Verifying (15/1)

He’s steadily progressing and ran very well in the Blue Grass. There’s nothing to knock and he wouldn’t shock the Conductor if he pulled the upset. But, like most of the others in here he’s nothing special, the Conductor will be using him underneath only. At best he finishes 2nd.

#3 Two Phil’s (12/1) – He’s coming in with the fastest American speed figure, but it was over synthetic. Can he translate it to dirt? The Conductor says no at a relatively short price. He’s scared to chuck him out of the trifecta completely because he does have upside, but we have to make stands in this race. At best he finishes 2nd.

#4 Confidence Game (20/1) – He’s been working well since his win in the sloppy Rebel over two months ago. Winning is asking too much, but he’s a bomb the Conductor won’t chuck out of the trifecta. He’ll be forwardly placed in a Kentucky Derby without a ton of early speed. Desormeax does well with runners off these types of breaks too. He’s 19% with a +$1.22 ROI with starters returning off 46-90 day layoffs. At best he finishes 3rd.

#5 Tapit Trice (5/1)

He can win this race and has done nothing wrong. He’s shown he can overcome trouble and has run strong late pace figures every time. He’ll be on a few backup tickets for the Conductor, but he wont be leaning on him at a short price.

#6 Kingsbarns (12/1) – He set the slowest early pace imaginable in the Louisiana Derby and had no choice but to win. He’ll be forced to use much more early speed and will have to show a new dimension for the first time. He’s not for the the Conductor. Toss

#7 Reincarnate (50/1) – The Conductor would love to use him, but there’s not much to like. He looks to be a cut below the contenders. toss.

#8 Mage (15/1)

The Conductor is higher on this horse than most of the public. He overcame a very poor start in the Florida Derby and made a eye catching middle move. If he can finally break well today the Conductor thinks he’ll be in the mix at the top of the stretch. The distance may be just a little to far for him. Mr. Ductor won’t talk you off him, but at best he finishes 2nd on his tickets.

#11 Disarm (30/1) – He’s a tricky one for the Conductor. He ran really well in the Louisiana Derby two starts back where he closed strongly behind the aforementioned crawling pace. However, his Lexington effort left a lot to be desired. The Conductor may use him in 4th in the superfecta, but no higher.

#12 Jace’s Road (50-1) – The Conductor thinks Cox will send this horse with his major contenders being closers. He’ll show early speed and then fade to the back of the pack. Toss.

#13 Sun Thunder (50/1) – He needs to step forward to hit the board and there are too many other solid closers in the field to warrant consideration from the Ductor. Toss

#14 Angel of Empire (8/1)

He continues to progress for Cox and another legitimate contender that is tough to knock. He can win this race, but will have to do it from the back of the back. The Conductor is slightly against him at a short price. He will allow him to finish 2nd and no better.

#15 Forte (3/1)

He’s the worst kind of favorite for the Ductor. The Conductor either wants to love him or hate him and he’s apathetic towards this colt. The Conductor thinks he’ll run well and hit the board. But, at a short price he’s a deep closer and the Ductor projects a moderate early pace. Another Derby favorite that will be looking to ruin the Ductor’s Day.

#16 Raise Cain (50/1) – Unless it’s muddy, the Conductor can’t make a case. Toss.

*Gullet Shot of the 2023 Kentucky Derby #17 Derma Sotogake (10/1)

“Mr. Ductor this is the longest thing I’ve read in weeks. I’m usually listen to audio books only on the train, when will you get to the horse you love?” Shut up and sit down passenger, we’re finally here. You can throw a blanket around 6 or 7 horses in this race that are tough to separate, but there is only one potential superstar. This Japanese import made a mockery of the UAE Derby and couldn’t have looked better doing it. Japan has dominated racing across the globe as of late and this year they stamp their dominance in the Kentucky Derby. The Conductor has been a sucker with the UAE shippers before, but this one’s different. He loved his work over the Churchill track and he looks to get a great trip tracking a moderate pace. He’s versatile enough to work his own trip and he’s more talented than the rest. Let sake be the Conductor’s Saturday Stew of Choice. Skip.

Kentucky Derby

#18 Rocket Can (30/1) – He’s a cut below this group and looks to get a wide trip with his running style. Toss.

#21 Cyclone Mischief (20/1) – The Conductor will like this colt when he cuts back in distance vs weaker, not today. Toss.

*Bonus 2023 Kentucky Derby Esophagus Slice #22 Mandarin Hero (20/1)

The Conductor was hoping the other Japanese colt would draw in and he got his wish. This colt is as gritty as they come and is on the improve. It doesn’t matter what the surface or distance, if you run up next to this boy he’s going to fight you tooth and nail to the wire. The Conductor liked his Santa Anita Derby effort and thinks he wins that race if they kept running another 1/8 of a mile…which they do today. If Derma Sotogake loses, the Conductor will be hoping its to his country mate.

Kentucky Derby

#23 King Russell (50/1) – The Conductor needs to rest before the big day. Toss.

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