Month: October 2018

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Breakdown

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Racehorse Mendelssohn with jockey in purple and white silks racing on a turf track.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf time, Let’s Ride.

Keeneland Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) – G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

This is the hardest race on Friday’s card and almost everyone has a shot. However, fear not, the Conductor has the 14-horse field narrowed down to only 5 that can win. Moreover, he likes a few juicy prices.  If Churchill isn’t careful, the Conductor can have it begging for mercy.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

*Gullet Shot #2 Uncle Benny (15/1) – This Servis trainee was hung 8 wide and closed like a rocket to win her last start. Furthermore, this was after breaking her maiden going gate to wire on dirt.  Versatility is key and he shouldn’t have any problem stretching out.  The Conductor won’t be surprised by this upset.

#4 Forty Under (5/1) – The Pilgrim was the fastest American prep race on the Conductor’s numbers and this boy was best.  The course was yielding that day and there will also be cut in the ground on Friday . He’s improving, and should sit a nice trip a few lengths off the lead.

#5 Line of Duty (10/1) – This colt is shipping in from France after wins at a mile and 1 1/8 mile.  He’s also proven over a soft turf course and adds Lasix for the first time.  The Conductor likes his steady progression and thinks he’s poised to run a new top effort.

*Top Pick and Gullet Slit #7 Somelikeithotbrown (12/1)

He’s been ignored in the Breeders’ Cup build up. Additionally, the Conductor hopes they ignore him at the windows too.  He set a very fast pace in the Pilgrim and was only beaten ¾ of a length by #4 Forty Under that day.  If you like Forty Under in this race you must like Somelikeithotbrown more. The Conductor will argue he should be a shorter price.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

#14 Anthony Van Dyck (4/1) – He’s the class of the field running bang up races against much tougher in Europe.  Although, the Conductor can’t rely on him with his brutal post position.  Maybe he’s talented enough to overcome a wide trip and Ryan Moore can certainly work some magic.  The Conductor must use him defensively.

Top Picks 7-2-4-14-5

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Breakdown

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Two racehorses competing on a dirt track, one in pink and the other in blue, showcasing speed and athleticism during a horse race.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies time, Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Tito’s Handmade Vodka Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

MMMmmmmmmmm Tito’s…… the Conductor loves his Tito’s stew when he’s capping in the lab.  The key to this race is going to be the pace.  It will be scorching, and a late runner may be able to shock the world.  The Conductor thinks there are only three winning contenders and one is a bomb.

Winning Contenders:

#2 Serengeti Empress (7/2) – She’s the only frontrunner who hasn’t proven they can sit and pass horses that the Conductor likes in here.  However, when you’re coming off a 16-length victory without even trying, the Conductor can’t ignore you.  You don’t see horses win like that very often, especially at Churchill Downs, she could be something special.

*Top Pick and Gullet Shot #8 Sippican Harbor (12/1) – This is the price horse the Conductor is licking his chops for in this one.  After his blowout frontrunning win to break his maiden, he closed from last to win with ease.  The Conductor loves that versatility and although he got a favorable setup that day, he should get an even better one on Friday.  He can sit back and make one run while the frontrunners will have wobbly knees in the stretch.

breeders cup juvenile fillies

#10 Bellafina (2/1) – Shipping in from the west coast, she looks like a standout on numbers to the Conductor.  She’s pressed hot paces and hasn’t wavered at all down the stretch.  The post position is the concern as she may have to go too quick early to prevent getting hung out wide.  If Prat can navigate a a good trip for her, she’ll be tough to beat.

Top Picks: 8-10-2

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Breakdown

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Racehorse named Blessing Bait running on turf during a horse race with jockey in colorful attire.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf time. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

This race is more top heavy and less wide open in the Conductor’s view.  The favorites look extremely tough to beat, but the Conductor isn’t going to single the heavy favorite, there is another filly a with major potential.

Race Win Contenders:

*Top Pick #4 Just Wonderful (6/1) – This is the European shipper the Conductor thinks has a big shot to beat the American favorite.  In her last race in New Market, she showed a thunderous kick after having some traffic trouble.  She gets Lasix for the first time, is steadily improving and has top connections.  She has a major shot.

#6 Newspaperofrecord (2/1) – She’s the filly getting the most buzz around Kentucky as she enters the big weekend as one of the most likely winners.  There is nothing not to like about her first two blowout scores, where she looks like the real deal.  She’ll be very tough to beat, but a baby stubbing her toe in a 14-horse-field has happened many times before and Just Wonderful has much more experience against tougher competition.

Underneath Prices:

#2 The Mackem Bullet (15/1) – The Conductor doesn’t think any of the other American runners are any good in here besides #1 Concrete Rose at 6/1. However, there are a few runners from across the pond with ability.  This filly keeps getting ignored at the windows in England and continues to run bang up races. She’s just missed twice against Fairyland, who would be one of the favorites in here.  Additionally she is 6/6 hitting the board in her career.

#14 East (20/1) – She gets a brutal draw from the 14-hole, but that will ensure her price will be high.  She’s 2/2 in her young career and has been very visually impressive in both starts.  She has enough early speed to prevent being hung wide into the first turn. If that is indeed the case, then she can light up the tote board.

Absolutely No Shot:

#11 Lady Prancelot

The Conductor will not forgive her for not getting by a 35/1 shot last start.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Breakdown

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A jockey in purple silks atop a horse adorned with flowers after a race.

0-4 yesterday at Parx was gross, but the posts are drawn for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and the Conductor doesn’t have time for that.  His eyes are weary from watching all the tape, but he is giddy with excitement as the opportunity to make life changing scores for his passengers presents itself.  He doesn’t need the money after countless pick 6 gullet shots at Breeders’ Cups gone by, but he cares deeply about all of us. The best ponies from across the globe are all in Louisville this weekend for their shot at eternal glory.  Full race breakdowns for all Championship races will be posted today and tomorrow to get the passengers prepped for Friday and Saturday. Let’s Ride.

Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Pick 5

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

The Europeans targeted this one and this looks like a very competitive group overall.  Babies sprinting on turf is always prone to chaos and there aren’t any standouts.  The Conductor must help us sort this one out.

The Contenders:

#1 Strike Silver (4/1) – You won’t see a more electric win than his victory last start in the Summer Stakes at Keeneland.  It was so jaw dropping that the Conductor called him a her:

He was slammed hard at the break and came from the clouds to get up in the final strides.  He’s shown he is versatile on turf and dirt, winning with different running styles. Strike Silver has also overcome trouble in his young career, proving he has loads of talent.  He’s a major contender and a must use for the conductor. The only concern is the poor post draw.

*Top Pick #2 Soldier’s Call (9/2) – He is the top European contender in this field and colts don’t do what he did last start very often.  As a 2-year-old he took on the best adult sprinters in Europe in the G1 Prix de l’Abbaye and was barely beaten a neck.  He adds Lasix today and has the potential to be an absolute freak.

*Gullet Shot #4 Stillwater Cove (20/1) – She’ll be the Conductor’s key in the race at a nice juicy number.  Last start in the G1 Natalma Stakes she made a strong early move into a hot pace. She rightfully faded late and she was also going a mile. The Conductor loves the cutback in distance. She showed the ability to pass horses and win two starts back. She should get a perfect setup in this race and has as good a chance as any.

#10 So Perfect (12/1) – The “other” Aidan O’Brian Shipper is another filly that the Conductor believes has a big chance.  In 6 career starts she’s never been over a length behind the winner.  She’ll be a bigger price with jockey Ryan Moore choosing to ride #8 Sergei Prokofiev (6/1), but So Perfect beat him by 5 lengths when they squared off in the G1 Keeneland Phoenix.  Give the Conductor double the number, He dares you.

breeders' cup juvenile turf sprint

Tuesday’s Breeders Cup Bankroll Builders at Parx

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Architectural rendering of the Parx Casino exterior featuring colorful triangular structures and a modern building design.

Parx Time, Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1m70yds. F.Clm 5000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Silver Silence (12/1) – The Conductor doesn’t like the favorites in here and this girl has multiple past performances that can beat this group.  She went the bench after she had a few poor efforts, but her works are solid, and she looks like she’ll show her best today.  She’s a Parx specialist.

parx

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. Mdn 45k

*Never a Doubt Tuesday T-Bond Lock of the Day #5 MotownCharlybrown (2/1) – He’ll be a short price, but it’s a certainty that he’ll win for fun.  He ran well against a colt named Conqueror in his debut, who has come back to have two dominant victories. Additionally, this is a weak field with the scratches and MotownCharlybrown will skip home with ease.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Str Alw. 12500

#9 Nigel’s Destiny (12/1) – He’s drawn well to the outside and the Conductor thinks the favorites are vulnerable in here.  He’s faced tougher competition in New York most of his career and also has the back class and numbers to win if he shows up.  His work tab suggests he will.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 25000n2x

#8 Doctorsofmischief (8/1) – She’s in career form and her last start at this level was ultra-impressive.  She pressed the pace the whole way around and was just nailed by a closer in the final strides.  A repeat effort will put her right there at the wire.

Vital Breeders Cup Announcement And Monday’s Punts at Parx

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Horses and jockeys at the starting gate during a race at Parx Racing in Pennsylvania.

The Conductor was buried underneath Breeders Cup PPs yesterday in preparation for the upcoming weekend.  He will have full breakdowns of each race coming this week, so you passengers keep your eyes peeled.  In the meantime, the Conductor will still share a few winners with you to build up your bankroll for the best two days in racing.  What a selfless man.  It’s almost here, full fields, the best of the best facing off, the Conductor can feel the tension in his plumbs.  Let’s start this week off right, off to Parx we go, Let’s ride.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 7500n3L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Queen Fantabulous (8/1) – She made an early move into a scorching pace last start and faded late.  She is one of the very few runners in here with past figures above par for this level and her early speed makes her very dangerous.  With only one other speed horse in this group she should get a favorable trip on or near the lead.

Parx

Race 6: 1 Mile. Clm 12500n2L

*Never a Doubt Breeders Cup Bankroll Lock of the Day #1 Glass Bridge (4/1) – The #4 Industrial Logic (9/5) is the one to beat in here, however, this gelding is the only other contender with a chance.  He’s had two poor efforts on a sloppy track and turf. He’ll get back to a fast dirt track today an His Parx dirt form is solid. He’s taking a big class drop and his work tab suggests he’s rounding into form.  The Conductor loves him.

Parx

Race 7: 1m70yds. Alw 12500s

#8 We B Jammin (15/1) – With the scratches at Parx, he’ll be nowhere near 15/1, but he’ll still likely be the third choice in the betting.  That’s pretty good for a hoarse coming off a 15-length victory.  He’s a speedball that will go guns blazing to the front and hold on for dear life.  Hold on big boy, one time.

Race 8: 1 Mile. F. Clm 16000

#4 Awesome Singer (20/1) – She has past performances above par at this level. That’s good enough for the Conductor at the price she’ll be.  There aren’t any world beaters in here and she’ll be right there at the wire if she shows up.

Saturday’s Esophagus Stuffers at Santa Anita

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Horse racing at Santa Anita Park with mountains in the background and palm trees lining the track, showcasing a vibrant outdoor atmosphere.

The sunshine didn’t bring us winners yesterday as the Conductor only connected with one short priced horse.  Sad.  With the disgusting weather on the east coast, the Conductor will keep the train out west at Santa Anita for the weekend.  All you degenerates stuck in the sleet will have to bunker down and play the ponies.  What a terrible thing. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. Alw 50000s

#1 El Asesino (5/1) – He’s stepping up in class, but his last race was ultra-impressive.  He’s been gelded since then, gets a weight break today and trainer Vann Belvoir is red hot.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.OC 40000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Kindred (15/1) – In her first try at this level she dueled in a scorching pace and faded late.  There aren’t any world beaters in here and she’s fast enough to get an early lead.  The Conductor has seen much worse 15/1 shots at Santa Anita.  He gives her a chance.

Santa Anita

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 35000n3L

#5 Impression (4/1) – Drawn well, this boy is in solid form and turning heads in the morning.  Thi race doesn’t have much other pace and he should have every chance on the lead.

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 50k

#1 Posit (6/1) – This filly was purchased for 200k and she’s working like she’s worth every penny.  Her dam has 2 winners from 2 starters, including a stakes winner and Mario is hot in the irons.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) F. G3 Autumn Miss Stakes

#6 Tesora (6/1) – A 14 horse stakes race? That’s what the Conductor like to see.  This filly continues to get better and has shown versatility winning at different tracks and distances.  She was facing better turf horses in New York and 6/1 gets the Conductor tingly.

Race 11: 6 Furlongs. Clm 8000

*Never a Doubt Hell of Saturday Night #8 St Reno (6/1) – If the Conductor gets 6/1 on this Gelding he’ll be running up and down the streets in celebration.  He’s improving, a repeat effort of his last performance at Santa Anita beats this group and he’s making his 3rd start off a layoff. Easy winner.

Santa Anita

Friday Night at Santa Anita: Clear Eyes, Full Hearts, Fast Ponies

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Horses exiting the starting gate at Santa Anita racetrack during a horse race.

Santa Anita time, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: Race. (Turf) F.Mdn 50k

*Never a Doubt Friday Night Bottle Service Lock of the Day #6 She Be Striking (3/1) – Stretching out for first time, this filly looks like an absolute standout.  Her first two starts were solid efforts running nice figures and narrowly missing.  She’s proved she can pass horses, gets a jockey upgrade to Prat, trainer Richie Mandella is hot. She should like the added distance because of her breeding. She Be Winning.

celebrate season 1 GIF by Vinyl

Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs. Alw 50000s

#8 I Am the Danger (9/5) – Breaking his maiden last start, he was very professional sitting behind the frontrunners and passing them with ease down the stretch.  The rest in this field will be gunning for the early lead and he should get a perfect setup.  The Conductor thinks we’ll get over 2/1 on him too.

Race 3: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 50k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Miss Voluptuous (6/1) – Drawn well to the inside, she’s bred for the grass and was a very solid work tab.  Why would top jockey Flavien Prat be taking the mount for a trainer who is only 4% with 1st time starters this year?  He knows this filly can run and so does the Conductor.

santa anita

Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 16000n3L

#6 Belle Monte (4/1) – His last start at Santa Anita was the best of this bunch in the Conductor’s eye.  He won comfortably and should be able to handle the step up in class today. He’s lightly raced and on the improve while most of the others are looking to find form.

Race 5: 1 Mile. OClm 40000

#5 Baby Frankie (5/2) – Dropping in class, his speed figures are the best of this bunch and he’s also by far the most consistent runner in this field. The ultimate equipment change (snip snip) and the addition of blinkers can also move him forward.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 25000n2L

#2 Jack and I (4/1) – This gelding continues to run higher numbers in each start and is dropping in class today. He’s also working well, shortens in distance and is drawn well to the inside.

Race 7: 1 Mile. F.MC 30000

#3 Divine Dharma (7/2) – She was hammered at Santa Anita at this level last time. Then she was slammed at the start and still ran 4th in a 12-horse field.  The Conductor bets she gets a clean trip today and romps this field.

Race 8: 1 ¼ (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#6 Oscar Dominguez (5/2) – He won his last race and is in good form. Additionally, he’s proven he can handle this distance while the others in here are not. 1 ¼ Mile is a long way.

Thursday’s Throat Shots at Keeneland

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A lineup of thoroughbred racehorses at the starting gate at Keeneland, featuring jockeys in colorful silks ready for the race.

Keeneland time, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. Clm 16000

#5 Wildwood Dancer (7/2) – He ran a solid 3rd last time out at this level and that performance mas much better than it looks on paper.  He made an early move into a hot pace and faded late.  He lost to a next out winner and gets a shorter distance today.  He’s an early single for the Conductor.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. Clm 20000

#4 Eternal Force (9/2) – He drops in class and should be ready for a peak effort in his 3rd start off a layoff.  This race is wide open, but the Conductor likes his upside.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F. Mdn 67k

#6 Celia’s Song (5/1) – This group stinks, heavily bet in her first few starts on dirt, she hasn’t lived up to the hype.  She’s working well, her breeding suggests she’ll like the grass and trainer Eddie Kenneally is red hot.  She has potential, unlike the others.

Race 4: 1 1/8 Mile. Clm 7500

#8 Tachi (9/2) – He has the highest last out speed figure in this group, even though it was on turf.  He’s in career form as a 7-year-old and most of these other runners are going in the wrong direction. C’mon Ol Boy.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. MC 50000

*Never a Doubt Dead Bolt Lock of the Day #1 Raising the Flag (5/2) – He’s showed speed against tougher at Keeneland and a repeat effort of his debut beats this group.  The drop in class and solid works are enough for the Conductor.

keeneland

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 67k

#8 Super Steed (9/2) – Posting bullet works for an 18% trainer with 1st time starters, he has a big shot.  His dam is also 1/1 with runners and he’s bred to sprint.

Race 7: 1 3/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 69000n1x

#2 Zumerdee (7/2) – The Conductor was very impressed with his last start at Keeneland, as he closed strongly into a slow pace.  He is bred to run all day, drops in class and the Conductor likes to see Jersey Joe stay aboard.

Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.OC 80000n3x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Grand Prix (10/1) – This speed ball hasn’t run since March, but she’s run well off the layoff before. Additionally, the Conductor loves that Jose hops aboard and her early speed is very dangerous.  She can gut this field.

Image result for gullet

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F. Mdn 67k

#2 Bee Balm (10/1) – Well bet in her first 3 starts, she’s ran ok, but hasn’t gotten a shot to route on a firm turf course. She has talent and potential to run a big one.

Power Ball Investments: Wednesday’s Winners at Keeneland

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A group of jockeys riding horses during a race at Keeneland, with trees in bloom in the background.

Wow, the Conductor is going to have to stop taking the train to Parx if he’s going to continue to put up goose eggs.  But we know there are no other alternatives, we need our Monday and Tuesday fix. Thankfully, we get back to Lexington today, where the Conductor has dominated the Keeneland meet.  Eight races, eight winners, and a train filled with loot heading into the back half of the week. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 50000

#8 Shackleford County (5/2) – Well bet in her Keeneland debut, she showed good early speed then faded late.  She drops in class today and gets to run on a fast dirt track for the first time.  The Conductor sees her taking it to this field.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. F.MC 50000

#1 Proud Emma (8/1) – She was bumped at the start and ran a distant 4th in her debut vs tougher.  She’s drawn well to the inside today, drops in class and should improve with the added distance.  Trainer Phillip Sims has a +$0.58 ROI stretching horses out for the first time this year and Lanerie will ride the pine to victory.

Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 69000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Girls Night (15/1) – She pressed a hot pace vs tougher going 6 ½ Furlongs at Kentucky Downs last start and still held on for 4th.  She should step forward in her 2nd race off a short layoff and she’ll appreciate the cutback in distance.  They Conductor is praying for her to stay a big price.

Keeneland

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 67k

#3 Paynter Up Mauk (10/1) – She is posting absolute bullet works leading into today, including her last at 46 and change at 4 furlongs.  Her dam has 3 winners from 5 starters including a stakes winner and the low-profile connections should keep her price juicy.

Race 5: 1 1/8 Mile. Clm 20000n2L

#10 Al Taweel (8/1) – This gelding’s last start was much better than it looks on paper.  He showed good early speed, faced some trouble and dropped back, then rallied and finished strong.  He’s working well and has a win going 1 ¼ Mile, where most of these other runners haven’t shown they can run this far. He’s a must use.

Race 6: 1 3/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 69000n1x

#1 Kallio (4/1) – In a race without any pace, she should be able to work out a comfortable trip on, or near the lead.  In her last race, she pressed a hot pace and was still able to hang on at this distance.  A repeat effort wins this race.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. OC 80000n3x

*Never a Doubt Etched in Stone Lock of the Day #6 Hot Shot Kid (3/1) – This 4-year-old continues to steadily improve, and the Conductor loves his chances today.  He was routing at this level last time and just came up short, running a solid 2nd.  Cutting back to a sprint he possess the early speed to dictate his own trip and the stamina to finish.

Keeneland

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 67k

#2 St Denman (7/2) – He crossed the wire 1st in his last start, but he was placed 2nd by DQ.  Don’t be selfish Keeneland, let this boy break his maiden.