Month: October 2018

Ponies

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Breakdown

The Conductor's Scribe

Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Pick 5

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) – G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

This is the hardest race on Friday’s card and almost everyone has a shot.  But fear not, the Conductor has the 14-horse field narrowed down to only 5 that can win, and he likes a few juicy prices.  If Churchill isn’t careful, the Conductor can have it begging for mercy before we even get to Saturday.

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*Gullet Shot #2 Uncle Benny (15/1) – This Servais trainee was hung 8 wide and closed like a rocket to win her last start after breaking her maiden going gate to wire on dirt.  Versatility is key as the Conductor has taught us and the Conductor can’t see her having any problems with him stretching out.  The Conductor won’t be surprised by him while many others will.

#4 Forty Under (5/1) – The Pilgrim was the fastest American prep race on the Conductor’s numbers and this boy ran well to win.  The course was yielding that day and there will certainly be cut in the ground on Friday, with the rain in Kentucky this week.  He’s improving, drawn well, and should sit a nice trip a few lengths off the lead.

#5 Line of Duty (10/1) – This colt is shipping in from France after wins at a mile and 1 1/8 mile.  He’s proven over a soft turf course and adds Lasix for the first time.  The Conductor likes his steady progression and thinks he’s poised to run a new top effort.

*Top Pick and Gullet Slit #7 Somelikeithotbrown (12/1) – He is getting ignored in the Breeders’ Cup build up and the Conductor hopes they ignore him at the windows too.  He set a very fast pace in the Pilgrim and was only beaten ¾ of a length by #4 Forty Under that day.  If you like Forty Under in this race you must like Somelikeithotbrown more, or you are missing a brain.  The Conductor will argue he should be a shorter price.

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#14 Anthony Van Dyck (4/1) – He’s the class of the field running bang up races against much tougher in Europe.  However, the Conductor can’t rely on him with his brutal post position.  Maybe he’s talented enough to overcome a wide trip and maybe Ryan Moore can work some magic.  The Conductor will use him defensively.

Top Picks 7-2-4-14-5

Ponies

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Breakdown

The Conductor's Scribe

Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Pick 5

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Tito’s Handmade Vodka Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

MMMmmmmmmmm Tito’s…… the Conductor loves his Tito’s stew when he’s capping in the lab.  The key to this race is going to be the pace.  It will be scorching, and a late runner may be able to shock the world.  The Conductor thinks there are only three winning contenders and one is a bomb.

Winning Contenders:

#2 Serengeti Empress (7/2) – She’s the only frontrunner who hasn’t proven they can sit and pass horses that the Conductor likes in here.  However, when you’re coming off a 16-length victory without even trying, the Conductor can’t ignore you.  You don’t see horses win like that very often, especially at Churchill Downs, she could be something special.

*Top Pick and Gullet Shot #8 Sippican Harbor (12/1) – This is the price horse the Conductor is licking his chops for in this one.  After his blowout frontrunning win to break his maiden, he closed from last to win with ease.  The Conductor loves that versatility and although he got a favorable setup that day, he should get an even better one on Friday.  He can sit back and make one run while the frontrunners will have wobbly knees in the stretch.

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#10 Bellafina (2/1) – Shipping in from the west coast, she looks like a standout on numbers to the Conductor.  She’s pressed hot paces and hasn’t wavered at all down the stretch.  The post position is the concern as she may have to go too quick early to prevent getting hung out wide.  If Prat can navigate a a good trip for her, she’ll be tough to beat.

Top Picks: 8-10-2

Ponies

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Breakdown

The Conductor's Scribe

Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Pick 5

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

This race is more top heavy and less wide open in the Conductor’s view.  The favorites look extremely tough to beat, but the Conductor isn’t going to single the heavy favorite, there is another filly a with major potential.

Win Contenders:

*Top Pick #4 Just Wonderful (6/1) – This is the European shipper the Conductor thinks has a big shot to beat the American favorite.  In her last race in New Market, she showed a thunderous kick after having some traffic trouble.  She gets Lasix for the first time, is steadily improving and has top connections.  She has a major shot.

#6 Newspaperofrecord (2/1) – She’s the filly getting the most buzz around Kentucky as she enters the big weekend as one of the most likely winners.  There is nothing not to like about her first two blowout scores, where she looks like the real deal.  She’ll be very tough to beat, but a baby stubbing her toe in a 14-horse-field has happened many times before and Just Wonderful has much more experience against tougher competition.

Underneath Prices:

#2 The Mackem Bullet (15/1) -The Conductor doesn’t think any of the other American runners are any good in here besides #1 Concrete Rose at 6/1, but there are a few runners from across the pond with ability.  This filly keeps getting ignored at the windows in England and continues to run bang up races as she steps up in class.  She’s just missed twice against Fairyland, who would be one of the favorites in here and is 6/6 hitting the board in her career.

#14 East (20/1) – She gets a brutal draw from the 14-hole, but that will ensure her price will be high.  She’s 2/2 in her young career and has been very visually impressive in both starts.  She has enough early speed where she should be able to prevent getting hung out too wide into the first turn and if that’s the case then she can light up the tote board.

Absolutely No Shot:

#11 Lady Prancelot

The Conductor will not forgive her for not getting by a 35/1 shot last start.

Ponies

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Breakdown

The Conductor's Scribe

0-4 yesterday at Parx was gross, but the posts are drawn for the Breeders’ Cup and the Conductor doesn’t have time for that.  His eyes are weary from watching all the tape, but he is giddy with excitement as the opportunity to make life changing scores for his passengers presents itself.  He doesn’t need the money after countless pick 6 gullet shots at Breeders’ Cups gone by, but he cares deeply about all of us.

The best ponies from across the globe are all in Louisville this weekend for their shot at eternal glory.  Full race breakdowns for all Championship races will be posted today and tomorrow to get the passengers prepped for Friday and Saturday. Let’s Ride

Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Pick 5

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

The Europeans targeted this one and this looks like a very competitive group overall.  Babies sprinting on turf is always prone to chaos and there aren’t any standouts.  The Conductor must help us sort this one out.

The Contenders:

#1 Strike Silver (4/1) – You won’t see a more electric win than his victory last start in the Summer Stakes at Keeneland.  It was so insane that the Conductor called him a her:

He was slammed hard at the break and came from the clouds to get up in the final strides.  Showing his versatility on turf and dirt, winning with different running styles, and overcoming trouble in his young career prove he has loads of talent.  He’s a major contender and a must use for the conductor, the only concern is the poor post draw.

*Top Pick #2 Soldier’s Call (9/2) – He is the top European contender in this field and colts don’t do what he did last start very often.  As a 2-year-old he took on the best adult sprinters in Europe in the G1 Prix de l’Abbaye and was barely beaten a neck.  He adds Lasix today and has the potential to be an absolute freak.

*Gullet Shot #4 Stillwater Cove (20/1) – She’ll be the Conductor’s key in the race at a nice juicy number.  Last start in the G1 Natalma Stakes she made a strong early move into a hot pace and faded late, but she was going a mile.  The Conductor loves the cutback in distance and she’s shown the ability to pass horses in win two starts back, while many of these sprinters will be gunning for the early lead.  She should get a perfect setup in this race and has as good a chance as any to hit the wire first.

#10 So Perfect (12/1) – The “other” Aidan O’Brian Shipper is another filly that the Conductor believes has a big chance.  In 6 career starts she’s never been over a length behind the winner.  She’ll be a bigger price with jockey Ryan Moore choosing to ride #8 Sergei Prokofiev (6/1), but So Perfect beat him by 5 lengths when they squared off in the G1 Keeneland Phoenix.  Give the Conductor double the number, He dares you.

Top Picks: 2-4-1-10

 

Ponies

Tuesday’s Breeders Cup Bankroll Builders at Parx: The Keys to the Pick 4

The Conductor's Scribe

Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1m70yds. F.Clm 5000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Silver Silence (12/1) – The Conductor doesn’t like the favorites in here and this girl has multiple past performances that can beat this group.  She went the bench after she had a few poor efforts, but her works are solid, and she looks like she’ll show her best today.  She’s a Parx specialist.

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Race 6: 7 Furlongs. Mdn 45k

*Never a Doubt Tuesday T-Bond Lock of the Day #5 MotownCharlybrown (2/1) – He’ll be a short price, but it’s a certainty that he’ll win for fun.  He ran well against a colt named Conqueror in his debut, who has two dominant victories to his name in a row.  This is a weak field with the scratches and MotownCharlybrown will skip home with ease.

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Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Str Alw. 12500

#9 Nigel’s Destiny (12/1) – He’s drawn well to the outside and the Conductor thinks the favorites are vulnerable in here.  He’s faced tougher competition in New York most of his career and has the back class and numbers to win if he shows up.  His work tab suggests he will.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 25000n2x

#8 Doctorsofmischief (8/1) – She’s in career form and her last start at this level was ultra-impressive.  She pressed the pace the whole way around and was just nailed by a closer in the final strides.  A repeat effort will put her right there at the wire.

Ponies

Monday’s Parx Racing Recap

The Conductor's Scribe

Race 5: #4 Queen Fantabulous – 6th at 7/2

Race 6: #1 Glass Bridge – 1st at 3/2

Race 7: #8 We Be Jammin – 4th at 8/1

Race 8: #4 Awesome Singer – 2nd at 5/2

Not Great, but the lock of the day a kept us afloat.  The Conductor will keep the train in Philly for one more day, then it will be off to Kentucky for Breeder’s Cup preparation the rest of the week.  The Conductor has been in his lab for 48 straight hours, no food or drink. It’s going to be a hell of ride.

Ponies

Vital Breeders Cup Announcement And Monday’s Punts at Parx

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor was buried underneath Breeders Cup PPs yesterday in preparation for the upcoming weekend.  He will have full breakdowns of each race coming this week, so you passengers keep your eyes peeled.  In the meantime, the Conductor will still share a few winners with you to build up your bankroll for the best two days in racing.  What a selfless man.  It’s almost here, full fields, the best of the best facing off, the Conductor can feel the tension in his plumbs.  Let’s start this week off right, Let’s ride.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 7500n3L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Queen Fantabulous (8/1) – She made an early move into a scorching pace last start and faded late.  She is one of the very few runners in here with past figures above par for this level and her early speed makes her very dangerous.  With only one other speed horse in this group she should get a favorable trip on or near the lead.

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Race 6: 1m70yds. Clm 12500n2L

*Never a Doubt Breeders Cup Bankroll Lock of the Day #1 Glass Bridge (4/1) – The #4 Industrial Logic (9/5) is the one to beat in here, but this gelding is the only other contender with a chance.  He’s had two poor efforts on a sloppy track and turf, but he’ll get back to a fast dirt track today.  His dirt form is solid, he’s taking a big class drop and his work tab suggests he’s rounding into form.  The Conductor loves him.

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Race 7: 1m70yds. Alw 12500s

#8 We B Jammin (15/1) – With the scratches, he’ll be nowhere near 15/1, but he’ll still likely be the third choice in the betting.  That’s pretty good for a hoarse coming off a 15-length victory.  He’s a speedball that will go guns blazing to the front and hold on for dear life.  Hold on big boy, one time.

Race 8: 1 Mile. F. Clm 16000

#4 Awesome Singer (20/1) – She has past performances above par at this level and that’s good enough for the Conductor at the price she’ll be.  There aren’t any world beaters in here and she’ll be right there at the wire if she shows up.

Ponies

Saturday’s Esophagus Stuffers at Santa Anita: Keys to the Late Pick 6

The Conductor's Scribe

The sunshine didn’t bring us winners yesterday as the Conductor only connected with one short priced horse.  Sad.  With the disgusting weather on the east coast, the Conductor will keep the train out west for the weekend.  All you degenerates stuck in the sleet will have to bunker down and play the ponies.  What a terrible thing. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. Alw 50000s

#1 El Asesino (5/1) – He’s stepping up in class, but his last race was ultra-impressive.  He’s been gelded since then, gets a weight break today and trainer Vann Belvoir is red hot.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.OC 40000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Kindred (15/1) – In her first try at this level she dueled in a scorching pace and faded late.  There aren’t any world beaters in here and she’s fast enough to get an early lead.  The Conductor has seen much worse 15/1 shots.  He gives her a chance.

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Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 35000n3L

#5 Impression (4/1) – Drawn well, this boy is in solid form and turning heads in the morning.  Thi race doesn’t have much other pace and he should have every chance on the lead.

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 50k

#1 Posit (6/1) – This filly was purchased for 200k and she’s working like she’s worth every penny.  Her dam has 2 winners from 2 starters, including a stakes winner and Mario is hot in the irons.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) F. G3 Autumn Miss Stakes

#6 Tesora (6/1) – A 14 horse stakes race? That’s what the Conductor like to see.  This filly continues to get better and has shown versatility winning at different tracks and distances.  She was facing better turf horses in New York and 6/1 gets the Conductor tingly.

Race 11: 6 Furlongs. Clm 8000

*Never a Doubt Hell of Saturday Night #8 St Reno (6/1) – If the Conductor gets 6/1 on this Gelding he’ll be running up and down the streets in celebration.  He’s improving, a repeat effort of his last performance beats this group and he’s making his 3rd start off a layoff.  Easy winner.

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Ponies

Friday Night Lights at Santa Anita: Clear Eyes, Full Hearts, Fast Ponies

The Conductor's Scribe

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Sunny California, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: Race. (Turf) F.Mdn 50k

*Never a Doubt Friday Night Bottle Service Lock of the Day #6 She Be Striking (3/1) – Stretching out for first time, this filly looks like an absolute standout.  Her first two starts were solid efforts running nice figures and narrowly missing.  She’s proven she can pass horses, gets a jockey upgrade to Prat, trainer Richie Mandella is hot, and she should like the added distance. She Be Winning.

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Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs. Alw 50000s

#8 I Am the Danger (9/5) – Breaking his maiden last start, he was very professional sitting behind the frontrunners and passing them with ease down the stretch.  The rest in this field will be gunning for the early lead and he should get a perfect setup.  The Conductor thinks we’ll get over 2/1 on him too.

Race 3: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 50k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Miss Voluptuous (6/1) – Drawn well to the inside, she’s bred for the grass and was a very solid work tab.  Why would top jockey Flavien Prat be taking the mount for a trainer who is only 4% with 1st time starters this year?  He knows this filly can run and so does the Conductor.

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Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 16000n3L

#6 Belle Monte (4/1) – His last start was the best of this bunch in the Conductor’s eye.  He won comfortably and should be able to handle the step up in class today.  He’s lightly raced and steadily improving while most of the others are looking to find form.

Race 5: 1 Mile. OClm 40000

#5 Baby Frankie (5/2) – Dropping in class, his speed figures are the best of this bunch and he’s by far the most consistent runner in this field. The ultimate equipment change (snip snip) and the addition of blinkers can also move him forward.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 25000n2L

#2 Jack and I (4/1) – This gelding continues to run higher numbers in each start and is dropping in class today.  He’s working well, shortens in distance and is drawn well to the inside.

Race 7: 1 Mile. F.MC 30000

#3 Divine Dharma (7/2) – Heavily bet at this level last time, she was slammed at the start and still ran 4th in a 12-horse field.  The Conductor bets she gets a clean trip today and romps this field.

Race 8: 1 ¼ (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#6 Oscar Dominguez (5/2) – Winner of his last race, he’s in good form and he’s proven at this distance when the others in here are not.  1 ¼ Mile is a long way.

Ponies

Thursday’s Keeneland Recap

The Conductor's Scribe

A bunch of 2nds made yesterday annoying, but the Conductor’s stone-cold lock was an easy winner.  The Conductor is taking the train out west this Friday, with the forecast not looking great in Kentucky.  A little sun and a lot of winners never hurt anybody.  Full card top picks at Santa Anita will be up later today.