January 2025 - The Conductor's Scroll

Tampa Bay Downs Wednesday Picks — January 29, 2025 | Best Bets & Analysis

on January 29, 2025April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe

An elderly train conductor with a gray beard and a cap, operating a vintage locomotive, showcasing the essence of railway history.

The Conductor needed to leave Ohio asap. Another garbage performance at Mahoning Valley Tuesday has the passengers up in arms. He needs to get back to warm weather and turf racing, where the tape don’t lie. The real racing week starts on Wednesday at Iron Bets, everyone knows that. Skip.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 16000

#1 Float On By (3/1) – This filly set a fair pace for this level last time going longer. She was rundown late, but now cuts back 1/16th of a mile and takes the blinkers off. Trainer Arnaud Delacor is 11/30 this year, with a whopping +$1.78 ROI this year removing blinkers. The Conductor expects Float On By to run a career best effort today.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 20000

#2 God With Us (6/1) – This colt is steadily improving and ran a solid 4th last time sprinting on the dirt. Now he switches to the turf, the surface he’s bred for. His lone turf race to this point was against miles tougher in a stakes race. This is his first chance to mow vs reasonable competition. We’ll see if God is with us or against us in the 5th.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 16000n2L

#5 Permed (4/1) – This filly’s price should float up a bit for a small barn. As far as the tape is concerned, she was best in her last race at this level. She was checked on the first turn and was stuck behind horses deep in the stretch. Permed showed grit, finishing with interest and galloping out in front of the pack. 4/1 or better today is fair for the Conductor.

Mahoning Valley Tuesday Picks — January 28, 2025 | Best Bets & Handicapping

on January 28, 2025April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A group of horses with jockeys in colorful silks racing on a dirt track with spectators in the background.

The only thing colder than a Midwest winter was the Conductor’s picks Monday. 0/3 and we weren’t even close. The outside posts were where you wanted to be and Mr. Ductor’s horses were running on the inside. That’s the danger of submitting picks early on dirt. Pay close attention to the track passengers, and always be willing to adapt if you see a trend. Bounce back Tuesday, Let’s Ride.

Race 2: 5½ Furlongs. Clm 5000n3L

#6 Wild Time (5/1) – Throw out this geldings last try in the slop. His numbers fit with this group on a fast dirt track. He looks to get an ideal outside stalking trip today and he will have pace to run at. The Conductor is hoping the favorites duel each other into submission early.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 10000n1y

#5 Half Birthday (8/1) – This mare has run many speed figures that can beat this group on synthetic. She hasn’t been able to translate them to dirt, but she moved into a much improved barn last time. Now making making her 2nd start off the bench, the Conductor thinks she bucks that trend today. Trainer Valerie Shanyfelt is winning a 29% clip with a ridiculous +$5.72 ROI with horses making their 2nd start. The Conductor likes the confidence they have to bump Half Birthday up in class after last time too.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. Clm 5000n2y

#6 Monterey Peninsula (5/1) – This gelding dropped to this level last time and ran a decent 3rd in the slop. He was claimed out that race and the Conductor thinks that was a smart move. Monterey Peninsula will face the weakest level of competition he ever has today on a fast dirt track. He isn’t a mudder and will like the return to his preferred surface.

Don’t be stupid passengers, always play Mahoning Valley with Iron Bets to get the best wager rewards.

Mahoning Valley Monday Picks — January 27, 2025 | Best Bets & Analysis

on January 27, 2025April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A group of racehorses competing on a dirt track at Mahoning Valley Race Course during a race.

After the Pegasus weekend, all the fair-weather fans put their fancy clothes away and don’t think about horse racing until the first Saturday in May. The true grinders and passengers show up and punch the clock on Monday in Youngstown, OH. If they’re smart they use Iron Bets too. Skip.

Race 4: 1 Mile. F.Clm 7500n3L

#4 Queen Lexi (8/1) – This filly ran well sprinting last time, closing into a slow pace while being in the parking lot on the turn. Now with two sprints under her belt, she stretches out to a route in her 3rd start off a short break. Trainer Tommy short is 19% with a +$0.57 ROI this year with this training pattern. The Conductor would love over 5/1 in this wide open race.

Race 5: 1 Mile. Clm 15000

#2 Rose’s Pepino (9/2) – This gelding runs monstrous late pace figures every time. He had no chance last time being far back early behind a tepid pace. If this field stays in tact, he should get a much more favorable pace scenario today. He will be flying late.

Race 6: 1 Mile. Clm 4000n2y

#3 Endless Sunset (15/1) – This gelding moved into a much improved barn last start and showed more early speed in the slop vs tougher. Now he drops in class and gets back to fast dirt track for the first time in ages. His last start on fast dirt was good enough to win this race. Endless Sunset is the Conductor’s favorite longshot on the card.

2025 Pegasus World Cup Picks & Best Bets — Full Card Gulfstream Park Analysis

on January 24, 2025April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe

A dynamic image of a racehorse galloping with a jockey in colorful attire during a sunset, showcasing speed and energy.

The Conductor has a fire in his belly waiting for Saturday. The turf races especially at Gulfstream look ripe for the taking. Let’s have ourselves a weekend to remember passengers. Skip.

Race 7: 1½ Mile. (Turf) F.G3 La Prevoyante Stakes

#10 Forever After All (5/1) – This mare has been best in her last three races and poor trips have cost her. She unfortunately draws an outside post here, but the Conductor trusts Gaffalione to give her a fair chance. She’ll be the 3rd or 4th betting choice in this race and the Conductor thinks she’s the most likely winner. He must play her despite the poor draw.

Race 8: 1 Mile. G3 Fred W. Hooper Stakes

#5 Tumbarumba (2/1) – The Conductor thinks this hard knocking gelding gets the job done today. He takes the blinkers off and shortens 1/16 of a mile from his last race. Without much other speed in here, Tumbarumba will be very tough to pass in the stretch.

Race 9: 1½ Mile. (Turf) G3 William L. McKnight Stakes

#12 Cash Equity (6/1) – Another outside post in a turf route, what could go wrong? This gelding had a trip from hell last time and has run better than it looks on paper in his last few starts. He has class edge over this group and Irad hops aboard for the first time. If Irad can give him a fair trip, the Conductor thinks he will get his picture taken.

Race 10: 1 1/16 G2 Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf

#7 Minoushka (10/1) – The Conductor likes a few longshots in this race. Listen to the podcast below to find out the rest. Minoushka impressed the Conductor with her dominant performance at Keeneland in her US debut. She ran well stepping up in class last time too, closing well behind a slow pace. The Brendan Walsh runners have been firing on the Gulfstream turf all winter, and the Conductor thinks the trend continues Saturday.

Race 11: 7 Furlongs. F.G2 Inside Information Stakes

#9 Emery (3/1) – This filly hasn’t been defeated on a fast dirt track and the Conductor can’t play against her here. She looks to get an ideal outside stalking trip and is a cut above this group in his opinion.

Race 12: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Mi Hermano Ramon (8/1) – This gelding is in career best form and draws well to the inside. He had a terrible turf trip last time and sustained his run for 2nd after making a 4-wide move on the turn. With a fair trip today he can upset the favorites here in the turf feature.

Race 13: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes

#11 Locked (5/2) – The Conductor would be surprised if #4 White Abario (3/1) or Locked don’t win this years Pegasus. The Conductor leans Locked, who looks to gets the patented Johnny V outside stalking trip. He’s not convinced White Abario is as good as he once was despite being back in the Saffie Joseph barn. The one price that intrigues the Conductor underneath the favorites in this race is #6 Stronghold (10/1). Stronghold showed talent on the Derby trail last year and ran big sprinting in his return in the Malibu last time. That race looks to set him up perfectly to stretch out to his best distance today. He can inject value into this race.

Aqueduct Friday Picks — January 24, 2025 | NYRA Best Bets & Handicapping

on January 24, 2025April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe

A group of horses racing on a dirt track with spectators in the background.

The Conductor is longing for the spring when turf racing returns to New York. Make sure you’re locked and loaded at Iron Bets before then. The dirt product is decent Friday with bigger fields the latter half of the card. Let’s pick up some coal on the east coast. Skip.

Race 1: 7 Furlongs. F.MC 20000

#6 My Angel (2/1) – This mare was well bet off over a year layoff last time going 6 furlongs. She showed speed after a slow start and made a little move on the backstretch entering the turn. She draws a great outside post in a small field and will be more fit with that race under her belt. The Conductor expects her to improve today and beat his field of proven losers.

Race 7: 1 Mile. Alw 50000s

#6 Blame It On Daddy (8/1) – This gelding popped switching to the dirt last time. The Conductor doesn’t think there was anything fluky about that effort. He sees him repeating that race with a favorable outside stalking trip today. Daddy didn’t like the grass, he wants to dig his victories out of the dirt.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. S.MC 30000

#6 Wind Dancer (8/1) – This gelding made an early and wide move into a quick pace last time going 7 furlongs. He rightfully tired late and now he shortens in distance. Making just his third start on a fast dirt track today, Wind Dancer has upside.

Santa Anita Park Thursday Picks — January 23, 2025 | Best Bets & Pegasus Prep Analysis

on January 23, 2025April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe

A group of horses running on a racetrack with jockeys during a race under a clear blue sky.

Monday went well at Santa Anita with a 5/2 winner and a 24/1 2nd place finisher. Hopefully you passengers had the juicy exacta with Lila in the 8th race…and she was green in the stretch. Heading into the upcoming Pegasus weekend at Gulfstream we need all the coal we can get our hands on. The Conductor already has that card nailed down. Bountiful treasure is on the horizon. Skip.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 60k

#6 Big Whoosh (7/2) – This filly debuted sprinting and finished well with a strong gallop out. That race looked like a clear prep for a stretch-out in distance. Like the Conductor expected, she shows up routing today and gets Lasix for the first time. Trainer Leonard Powell is 18% with a positive ROI this year with 1st time routers

Race 7: *6½ Furlongs. (Hillside Turf) F.OC 80000n2x

#1 Shuangxi (8/1) – The Conductor likes the “other” Mullins here at a much bigger price. She disappointed sprinting off the bench last time, but is working bullets entering today. This is the lowest class level she’s faced since last spring and she gets Berrios in the saddle. Shuangxi has major upside.

Santa Anita Park Monday Picks — MLK Day, January 20, 2025 | Best Bets & Full Card

on January 20, 2025April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A racehorse with a jockey in yellow silks running at Santa Anita Park during a race.

Bonus racing at Santa Anita Park this Monday. Shout out to Martin Luther King Jr. He would want all us passengers to be get rich today, he told me so. It’s time for the prices to come home. Skip.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) MC 50000

#1 Ocala Kid (9/2) – In his turf debut last time, Ocala Kid got stuck on the rail entering the stretch. He showed the Conductor real grit as he bullied his way through tight hole and galloped out in front of the pack. Now in his 2nd try mowing with a rider upgrade to Hernandez, he should take a step forward. Ocala Kid can start our day off right.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. F.Clm 5000b

#7 Crystal Proof (6/1) – This old mare showed speed off a year layoff last time. Now she drops in class and shortens in distance. This is a very evenly matched field and the Conductor will take a stand with her. He expects her to match one of her best efforts from 2023 today, and that will put her in the winners’ circle.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 50000s

#4 Princess Midnight (6/1) – This filly won nicely sprinting at this distance at Santa Anita two starts back. She tried two turns last time and had a no chance trip. She was wide around the first turn and made a suicidal early move on the backstretch. Now returning to 6 furlongs with a nice inside draw, the Conductor likes her chances.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 60k

#3 Lila (10/1) – This filly was well bet on debut and had a no chance trip far back behind a slow pace and hung wide on the 2nd turn. Now she adds blinkers and gets Lasix for the first time. With a nice inside draw today, the Conductor sees her getting a more favorable trip. There’s more under the hood than we saw last time.

Santa Anita Park Sunday Picks — January 19, 2025 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

on January 19, 2025April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe

A racehorse galloping on a grassy track with a jockey in orange attire during a horse racing event.

The Conductor is not sure what happened when the calendar turned. Santa Anita is not cooperating. Just keep grinding the tape until your eyes bleed Conductor, the tide will turn. Skip.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) S.OC 50000n1x

#4 Triple Diamonds (5/2) – This gelding won’t be a big price, but the Conductor was impressed by his debut win. He was sandwiched at the start and still ran down the loose 3/5 favorite on the lead. The added furlong should only help his cause and he adds Lasix for the first time. For the Glatt barn, the Conductor will be very surprised if he isn’t victorious.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G3 La Canada Stakes

#4 Musical Mischief (2/1) – She’ll be the 2nd or 3rd choice in this 6 horse field and the Conductor thinks she’s the most likely winner. She’s run faster than the Baffert favorite, #6 Cavalieri (8/5), who the Conductor is against with the added distance. Musical Mischief is a Grade 2 winner and now ships back home after setting a scorching pace in the slop. She’s working well and looks ready to fire for McCarthy.

Race 9: 6½ Furlongs. (Hillside Turf) F.G3 Las Cienegas Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Nadette (10/1) – This mare shipped back to California off a break last time and ran better than it looks vs Grade 1 company. She was well back behind a slow pace and ran a huge late pace figure making up 4 lengths in the stretch. Now she cuts back down the hill and faces a much weaker group today. The Conductor trusts Hernandez to give her a good ride and she’ll be finishing best late. Nadette will be our savior on Sunday.

Santa Anita Park Saturday Picks — Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint (January 18, 2025)

on January 18, 2025April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe

Thoroughbred horse racing with a jockey in green and orange silks riding a horse on a grassy track.

Only 2nds and 3rds Friday at Santa Anita. The Conductor may have to retire soon. Skip.

Race 7: 6 1/2 Furlongs Hillside Turf Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf Sprint Stakes

#5 Andiamo Ragazza (10/1) – This filly finished close behind the heavy favorite #7 Stay and Scam (6/5) last time they faced down the hill. Andiamo Ragazza overcame a poor trip that day and that was with Tyler Baze aboard. Her last dirt race can be ignored and she looks primed to run her best with Hernandez in the saddle today. The Conductor is licking his chops at double digit odds.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) S.Unusual Heat Turf Classic Stakes

#2 None Above the Law (10/1) – This gelding made an early move into a quick pace going 1 1/2 miles last time and rightfully tired late. Now he drops in class, cuts back in distance and draws well to the inside. The Conductor he’s a major contender in a race where the favorites look beatable.

#7 Aligato (6/1) – The only other horse that concerns the Conductor is this gelding off the bench. He has the best turf numbers in the field at this distance and can win if he fires his best shot. Entering out for the Glatt barn with Prat aboard, that seems likely.

Santa Anita Park Friday Picks — January 17, 2025 | Best Bets & Handicapping

on January 17, 2025April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A group of horses racing on a grassy track with spectators in the background.

Too many 2nds and thirds Thursday at Santa Anita. That won’t pay the coal bill. Let’s start the weekend off right. Skip.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) F.MC 50000

#7 Ready to Dare (9/2) – This filly got a nice rail trip in her last turf race cutting back in distance and galloped out well. That was for a low % trainer and she has since upgraded to the Puype barn. Now returning to the surface she’s bred for after a dirt race, the Conductor expects to see a big step forward today.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 20000n3L

#1 Isabel Ludlow (4/1) – This filly always runs her race sprinting on the dirt. She had trouble in her last at the start and still finished with interest. Now moving into the Glatt barn, the Conductor expects her to improve. 7/2 or better is fair.

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 30000n3L

#7 Man Child ( 15/1) – The Conductor likes two prices today in the finale. This gelding was favored on turf vs similar at Santa Anita back in June and had a poor trip that day. Since then, he has moved into a stronger barn and won his comeback race on dirt. Now he switches back to the turf and the Conductor likes this spot for him. Man Child is 0/2 on the turf, but he’s bred to improve on the lawn. With Hernandez hopping aboard, this longshot is live.

#8 Andy Can U Hear Me (8/1) – This gelding returns off a layoff, but that doesn’t concern the Conductor coming from the Mullins barn. His horses are firing at Santa Anita and his turf numbers fit with this group. With a top turf rider in Berrios aboard, the Conductor must include him.