Month: September 2019

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Belmont Park

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Horses and jockeys racing at Belmont Park, showcasing the excitement of a horse race with colorful silks and starting gates.

The Conductor doesn’t want to talk about Belmont Park. Let’s Ride

Race 1: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 32000

#7 A Dixie Twister (2/1) – 5 wins in 6 starts at Belmont, she looks tough to beat.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. S.Mdn 62k

#3 The Honest Toun (4/1) – He showed ability in his debut and has been working well since being clipped. Always be weary of the ultimate equipment change.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Clm 25000n2L

#2 Pecan Pattie (4/5) – Chalk.

Race 4: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) MC 40000

#2 Bebeau (8/1) – He’s run competitive efforts for this level and switches to turf for the first time. His breeding suggests he can take a step forward on the lawn.

Race 5: 6½ Furlongs. F.S.Alw 66000n1x

#2 Bustin Scones (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff, the Conductor liked her finish last time. With natural progression, she’s very dangerous.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.S.Mdn 62k

#10 Tossup (15/1) – This filly showed ability as a 2-year old on dirt. 2nd off the layoff today, she could jump up and hit the board at a big number.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 62000n2x

#4 Performer (3/5) – Chalk.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.G2 Miss Grillo Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 English Breeze (5/1) – She was too close to a hot pace last time and still ran a good 3rd. Her debut win two starts back was very impressive.

belmont park

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) MC 40000

#9 Loaded Joe (9/2) – Dropping in class and turning back in distance, his early speed makes him very dangerous.

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

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A vine-covered building with large arched windows and a crowd of spectators seated in front, surrounded by greenery and trees.

Another positive day at the track yesterday with a few nice winners.  Too bad Green Bay’s defense stinks and they can’t score from the 1-yard line twice in the 4th quarter. Idiots! The Conductor is chomping at the bit this morning. He’s ready to head into the weekend at Belmont in style, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. MC 20000

#3 Dream’n Deamon (4/1) – This gelding has a monster early pace edge over this field. The low % jockey should keep his price high.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. Clm 25000n2L

#2 Bucked Tooth (6/1) – Throw out his turf try last time, his maiden breaker two back makes him very gangerous.

Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.S.Clm 25000

#4 Starlite Mission (5/1) – She’s taking a big drop in class and does her best running over the Belmont dirt. The Conductor will key her in the exacta.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 62k

#2 More Glitter (3/1) – Bet down to favoritism in her debut, she ran ok sprinting on the dirt. She stretched out and moves to the lawn today, where she’s bred to take a big step forward.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) Mdn 75k

#5 Turned Aside (5/2) – Linda Rice is deadly with 2nd time starters and this colt ran a very good 3rd in his debut, pressing a hot pace.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. S.Alw 66000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Irish Valor (8/1) – Throw out his last two efforts over a sloppy track and turf. In his race 3 back, he finished ahead of the even money favorite in here #4 Doups Point (1/1). 8/1 would be a delectable price for the Conductor.

Belmont park

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 62500

#2 Miss Mystique (5/1) – The Conductor thinks this filly has a big chance to wire this field at a decent price.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 30000n2L

#1 Brockmoninoff (9/2) – 3rd off the layoff and adding Lasix, the Conductor thinks he’s sitting on his top effort.

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

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Two racehorses competing on the track at Belmont Park during a horse race event.

Solid Wednesday for the Conductor, as he handed out the 50/1 exacta in race 6 on a platter and his gullet shot of the day ran 2nd at 16/1 in race 3. If you couldn’t make money yesterday at Belmont, then the Conductor can’t help you. Start playing checkers or the violin. Let’s keep the train rolling, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 50000

#2 Days of Spring (6/5) – She’s dropping to the claiming ranks for the 1st time and the race she’s exiting has come back live. There is nothing else to like in this field.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. Clm 14000n3L

#5 Gyoza (3/1) – He’s working well coming in off a layoff and looks to get a perfect trip from the outside.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) MC 50000

#5 Bail Out (3/5) – Chalk

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. S.MC 25000

#8 Sobersick N Sorry (6/1) – The Conductor is neither sober or sick and he will not apologize.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 35000n3L

#4 Clyde’s Runner (4/1) – He looks to get a perfect trip with a hot pace to close into.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 50000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Lookn Fine as Wine (8/1) – This filly had a brutal trip in her Belmont debut. She switches to the dirt, adds blinkers, and Castellano takes the mount. Javier has only ridden twice for trainer Martin Carlos in the last two months and won both times.

Belmont park

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 40000s

#5 Dream Passage (3/5) – Nothing creative.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Clm 30000n2L

#7 Fotis (9/2) – The Conductor doesn’t like anybody in here, its him by default.

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Belmont Park

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Horses and jockeys racing out of the starting gate at Belmont Park, showcasing a competitive horse racing event.

Saturday was a compete gambling debacle. Nothing more, nothing less. A weaker man would suck his thumb and lay rotting in bed while reevaluating his decision making. It takes a real warrior to get up the following morning, drink a stew and prepare to fire away with both fists at Belmont. That’s why he is the Conductor and we are passengers. Never Surrender! Let’s Ride.

 

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. S.Clm 25000

#3 Summer Bourbon (4/1) – Mmmmhhmmmm bourbon.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) F.MC 40000

#9 Ghostly Beauty (8/1) – Moving into a higher % barn, her race at Belmont two back will give her every chance. Trainer David Duggan is 21% with a +$2.17 ROI this year 1st off the claim.

Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs. G2 Gallant Bloom Stakes

#3 Come Dancing (1/5) – Chalk

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.Mdn 75k

#1 My Happy Place (9/2) – The Conductor likes her steady progression and she’s bred to take to the furf just fine. The Conductor will be in his happy place today, his couch.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

#5 Reversethedecision (2/1) – This filly ran some very strong pace figures last year. With maturity, she’ll be tough to beat.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 62k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Courted (6/1) – Trainer Jorge Abreau is 24% with a +$1.68 ROI with first time starters this year and this girls sire is winning at a 16% clip with debut runners. Castellano taking the mount also catches the Conductor’s eye.

belmont park

Race 7: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.Ashley T. Cole Stakes 125k

#3 Gucci Factor (5/2) – This gelding loves to win and Belmont Park.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. F.Alw 77000n1x

#1/1A Entry (7/2) – The Conductor thinks both Cannizzo’s runners have a major chance.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.S. John Hettinger Stakes 125k

#7 Wegetsdamunnys (8/1) – #9 Fifty Five (6/5) will be tough to beat, but the Conductor will key around this girl. She ran a good 4th last time closing into a slow pace and will have every chance today with a more favorable setup.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) S.Alw 66000n1x

*Underneath Uppercut #6 Nutzforboltz (10/1) – He doesn’t like to win, but he should get a hot pace to close into and will be finishing late. The Conductor will key him underneath in the exacta and trifecta.

belmont park

Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

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Horses and jockeys at the starting gate for the Belmont Stakes race at Belmont Park.

It was a positive Friday at Belmont for the Conductor. His best opinion was #2 Cleon Jones winning the 3rd race at 6/1. The train is moving in the right direction going into Saturday. Let’s get this big boy up to full speed. Let’s Ride.

Pennsylvania Derby Play: Maximum Security Scratched From the Pennsylvania Derby

Race 1: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 20000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Gorgeous Charli (12/1) – This old man returned to form last time, closing into a moderate pace and winning. He has past figures that give him every chance and he’ll be a nice price to key in the verticals.

belmont

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 40000

#2 Fusi (4/5) – Chalk

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. Alw 77000n1x

#1 Gio d’Oro (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this gelding can get brave and carry his speed a long way when he’s on the early lead. He should be all by himself up front in this one.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 75k

#4 Eagerly (7/5) – He ran big in his debut closing into a slow pace. He’ll be tough to beat with a race under his belt.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L

#1 Elios Milos (4/1) – 1st off the claim, this colt showed real ability early in his career. He had no pace to close into last time on a dead rail. The Conductor thinks his price will float up as well.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 75k

#2 Aasr (3/1) – The Conductor likes his works for Chad and the inside has been very good at Belmont so far.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 75k

#6 Balon Rose (5/2), #8 Shelter Island (9/2) – The Conductor will use the two Chads and carry on.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) G3 Noble Damsel Stakes

#1 Bellavais (7/2) – The Conductor thinks Pletcher can beat Chad in here. Her race two back in the G1 Just A Game will give her every chance.

Race 9: 1 Mile. Alw 50000s

#6 Quick Entry (5/1) – 1st off the claim and stretching out for the 1st time, Servis is 40% with a +$1.17 ROI with 1st time routers this year.

Race 10: 1 Mile. G2 Kelso

#1 Monongahela (6/1) – He chased Mitole in the Whitney last start and the distance was too far for him. Shortening back to mile and facing weaker, the Conductor likes him a lot.

#6 Plainsman (4/1) – Making his 2nd start of the year today at Belmont, he ran a huge late pace figure in his return to the races last time. The Conductor thinks he’s sitting on a big one.

Race 11: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Alw 66000n1x

*Underneath Uppercut #1 Barrel of Destiny (10/1) – The low % trainer will keep her price high, but she fits right in with this group. She doesn’t always get up in time to win, so the Conductor will key her in the exacta and trifecta.

belmont

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

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Large crowd of spectators gathered at a horse racing event, observing the race on the track.

Not a great Thursday for the Conductor, but that’s why there is Friday. This is by far the best betting card at Belmont thus far this week. Don’t think, just keep throwing. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 25000n3L

#2 Promise Me Roses (8/1) – You passengers don’t want roses, you just want the cash.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 32000

#6 Shimmering Moon (7/2) – 2nd off the layoff today, she made an early move into a hot pace last start. She’ll be ready to roll here.

Race 3: 7 Furlongs. S.Bertram F. Bongard Stakes 150k

#2 Cleaon Jones (9/2) – He’s the best closer in the race and he should get a perfect trip with a hot pace to run at. The Conductor will key him in the exacta.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 77000n1x

#7 Restructure (2/1) – She’s very logical.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) OC 622500n2x

#11 Aquaphobia (6/1) – 3rd off the layoff, he ran a strong late pace figure closing into a slow pace last time. With plenty of speed in this one, he should have every opportunity.

Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 75k

#3 Comic (4/1) – This filly is posting bullet works at Belmont and trainer Rodolphe Brisset is 21% with a +$0.54 ROI this year with 2nd time starters. Jose Ortiz stays aboard as well.

Race 7: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) OC 100000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Devamani (9/2) – He got absolutely no pace to run at last time and has the best last kick in this group. He also gets back to his favorite distance today. The Conductor will hammer him at that morning line.

belmont park

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) S.Mdn 62k

Underneath Uppercut #4 Imperio D (15/1) – This colt showed good early speed in his debut in a race taken off the turf. The Conductor sees him taking a big step forward on the lawn, where Rudy Rod wanted him to start. He will key him in the exacta and tri.

belmont park

The Conductor’s Pennsylvania Derby Preview

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A racehorse with a jockey in vibrant attire galloping on a dirt track during a horse race, showcasing speed and athleticism.

The Pennsylvania Derby has drawn for Saturday and it is a hell of a race despite only 7 contenders. This is the best 3-year old race since the Derby and the winner will likely be the leader of the crop moving forward. Let’s see if the Conductor can help us passengers solve this puzzle.

#1 Math Wizard (8/1) – This colt is the only closer in the field and looks to get a nice trip with a hot pace in front of him. He will likely go off at a higher price and the Conductor can see him clunking up to get into the trifecta. He’s not good enough to win, but the Conductor thinks he’ll offer value underneath.

#2 Improbable (3/1) – This colt is very talented and was very impressive in his return to the races last time. His immaturity is still a concern, as he fought Van Dyke the entire first half of the Shared Belief Stakes. However, he still cut out hot fractions and won with ease. The Conductor doesn’t think we’ve seen the best of this boy yet and he’ll be one of the two runners he uses on top in this one.

#3 Shanghai Superfly (30/1) – The only runner with no business being in the race. Draw a line thru him and treat him as a scratch.

#4 War of Will (5/1)

The Conductor is against the Preakness winner in here and thinks he’s going in the wrong direction. To his credit he’s shown up in every big race, but his last two efforts have been disappointing. The Conductor thinks his campaign has taken his best out of him and you won’t find him anywhere on the Conductor’s tickets.

Pennsylvania Derby

#5 Spun to Run (8/1) – This Colt is steadily progressing, and the Conductor really liked his win last time in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx. He split horses nicely and the race came back very fast on paper.  It’s a very tough ask for him to beat this field, but the Conductor will use him underneath in the exacta and tri.

#6 Mr. Money (4/1) – The Conductor has been a fan of this colt since he won him a nice lump of gold in the Pat Day Mile at 7/1 on Derby Day. Since then, he’s done nothing but blow away his competition. He’s stepping up against the big boys today, but the Conductor thinks he can answer the bell. His last work at Churchill could not have looked better. He’s the other contender the Conductor will use on top.

#7 Maximum Security (9/5) – The Conductor’s nemesis Maximum Security. How many times will he try to beat this boy? Well, at least one more time in the Pennsylvania Derby. The Conductor thinks he’ll go off at an even shorter price and he will get a lot of pace pressure in here. The Conductor will use him in 2nd and 3rd because he’s not a complete idiot, but he’ll make him look him in the eye and beat him one more round. Let’s go big boy, the Conductor didn’t here no bell.

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Belmont Park

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Two women wearing colorful hats reading a program at a crowded outdoor event, surrounded by attendees in various outfits.

We couldn’t get the prices around him, but the Conductor’s best bet #2 Amundson got the job done at 5/2 at Belmont Park yesterday. There is nothing better than Sundays in the fall. Ponies and football, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6½ Furlongs. F.Clm 16000n2L

#6 Peggy Sue (9/5) – This is an incredibly weak group of fillies.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) S.MC 40000

#8 Alphastest (3/1) – This colt just missed at this level two back and looks to get a favorable trip today alone on the lead.

#9 Clear the Ramp (15/1) – He’s a bomb the Conductor can get into the trifecta.

Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 100000n1x

#1 Chipolata (6/5) – This is bad betting race.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.S.MC 50000

#9 Top Hat Invasion (10/1) – This filly showed decent early speed vs tougher in her debut. She gets lasix today for the first time and is drawn well.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 35000n3L

#1/1A Entry (1/1) – Servis looks tough to beat.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. Alw 77000n3x

#1 Off the Record (9/5) – Chalky.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 90k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Cardiff Cay (15/1) – This colt made a big early moved into hot pace in his debut. The no name trainer will keep his price high. The Conductor will key him in the trifecta.

belmont park

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. S.Mdn 62k

#4 Dream Bigger (3/5) – He’s going to be tough beat based on his debut.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) S.OC 40000n2x

#2 Discretionary Marq (5/1) – This gelding set a hot pace and held on for a close 4th last time. He gets back to Belmont today where he is a different animal. He’s 5/8 over this turf course.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) Clm 25000

#5 Fear (6/1) – Dropping in class, the Conductor will forgive this gelding’s last effort over a yielding turf course. He looks to get a good trip today forwardly placed and is tough as nails.

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

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A jockey riding a chestnut horse during the 2018 Belmont Stakes race at Belmont Park.

It’s finally Friday at Belmont, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. MC 30000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Other Things Equal (5/1) – Cutting back 2nd off the layoff and returning to dirt, the Conductor loves him here. He’ll be in good position early in a race without much pace and will be the Conductor’s best bet of the day at that price.

belmont

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 62k

#5 Grudge (7/2) – The Conductor will never forgive.

Race 3: 1 Mile. F.S.Alw 66000n1x

#1 Nasty Affair (9/2) – She came from the clouds to nail them at the wire last start and ran a strong late pace figure. Trainer Linda Rice is a gaudy 40% this year with a +$1.13 ROI moving horses from a sprint to a route.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.S.Mdn 62k

#5 Strongerthanuknow (5/1) – She carried her speed a long way and had a troubled trip last time out. She’s also dropping back to the maiden ranks after facing stakes company.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 77000n2x

#3 Altea (2/1) – Chad Brown.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. S.MC 50000

#3 Imperioso (9/5) – This colt is posting bullet works at Belmont and was only 3k at auction so the Conductor doesn’t mind his debut for a tag.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.OC 100000

#5 Jc’s Shooting Star (8/5) – She’s the only runner in the field with a victory over this turf course and she has 3

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 50000n2L

#7 Scoreswhenhewants (5/1) – Dropping to the claiming ranks for the first time, this colt moved early into a hot pace last time and was a good 2nd. His breeding suggests he’ll be just fine on the grass.

Justify Failed a Drug Test and It was Covered Up

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Trainer interacting with the racehorse Justify during a training session.

The story that has taken the horse racing world by storm in the last 24 hours is the New York Times article that dropped yesterday. Justify failed a drug test prior to winning the Kentucky Derby and eventually the Triple Crown in 2018: Article Here

Not a great PR year for horse racing. Justify tested positive for banned drugs in his win in the Santa Anita Derby. This should have resulted in disqualification and would have made him ineligible to participate in the Kentucky Derby. However, the California Horse Racing Board covered it up to protect Baffert and the potential Derby winner. That’s the gist.

To the outside world this scandal is shocking, but to those in tune with the horse racing industry like the Conductor, its the least surprising news all day. Read the story. The Chairman of the Board in charge of acting upon the failed drug test has ownership in Baffert’s horses. Justify’s breeding rights were then sold for 60 million after his Triple Crown run. That’s the horse racing industry in a nut shell.

Almost all of these super trainers are trying to get an edge and their success brings the owners loot, so they bury their heads in the sand. Its very similar to the steroid era in baseball, you have massive stables winning at ridiculous 30-40% rates and taking home all of the major stakes races. Just like McGuire, Sosa and random 2nd baseman hitting 50, 60, 70 HR’s in the late 90’s, it’s very hard to determine who is clean and who is not because the water is so muddied. The super horses and trainers attract mainstream media attention and gives a declining sport more dollars and eyeballs, so nobody running the sport says a word.

The Conductor is happy for this story to come out

The only way for changes to be made is for things like this to be exposed instead of swept under the rug like they have since the sport was invented. Horse Racing will always have a little slimy side and the Conductor doesn’t hate that, but the rampant drug use is bad for everyone. The owners, breeders, clean trainers, bettors and most importantly the horses all suffer.

This is the greatest gambling game in the world with the finest specimens competing and showing off their talent.  There plenty of good people in the industry and they need to make major changes if the sport is going to succeed moving forward. This negative story could actually be a step in the right direction.

Belmont picks for today will be up shortly

Justify