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Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

Good day for the Conductor overall yesterday, but all of the photo finishes took a little off his life.

We need to get the train into 2nd gear heading into Travers Saturday.

Race 1: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 78k

#4 Stretchthestory (6/1) – The Conductor likes her work tab best and the Alvarado/Clement jockey/trainer combo are a scorching 4/6 with a +$6.38 ROI at the Saratoga meet.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.Mdn 78k

#4 Waynes Footsteps (7/2) – Making his 2nd start for Brad Cox, he took a big step forward last start, pressing a hot pace and holding on for 3rd. The Conductor sees another improvement coming.

Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile. F.S. Fleet Indian Stakes 200k

#4 Wait a Minute (6/1) – In her two starts routing, she’s won with ease. She’s working well entering today and Finger Lakes shippers have surprised at big prices this meet.

Race 4: 5½ Furlongs. S.Mdn 78k

#2 Solar Fire (12/1) – Posting quick works, this colt’s sire wins at a 38% clip with 1st time starters. Trainer John Toscano Jr. is also 25% this year with 2-year-olds.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.S. Yaddo Stakes 150k

*Never a Doubt Chad Brown Lock of the Day #1 Fifty Five (1/1) – Dropping back into state bred company, this mare hates losing at this level.

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Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.Alw 80000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Preferred Outcome (12/1) – Her recent figures sprinting on dirt fit right in with this group and she’s hit the board in her two career turf starts. She has good early speed, is very consistent and looks primed to run her best 2nd off the layoff.

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Race 7: 6½ Furlongs. F.S.Seeking the Ante Stakes

#2 Big Q (6/1) – Thrust into G2 company last start, she made a nice early move on the turn before fading late. She adds Lasix today and the Conductor sees her taking a big step forward.

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. S.Funny Cide Stakes 200k

#7 Cleon Jones (8/1) – His maiden breaker last start is the fastest performance this field has on the Conductor’s numbers. 8/1 would be a treat.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.West Point Stakes 150k

#8 Dot Matrix (9/2) – 2nd off the layoff for Brad Cox, he’s been facing open company and has very strong late pace figures. He looks to get a perfect trip today, with a hot pace to run at.

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. S. Albany Stakes 250k

#1 Daddy Knows (12/1) – Stretching back out to the distance he won two starts back. The Conductor really liked his effort that day pressing a hot pace. He is steadily progressing for strong connections.

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The Conductor’s Travers Preview

The Conductor's Scribe

The 2019 Travers doesn’t have any superstars in the field and is a wide-open betting race on paper. The Conductor was going to do a full breakdown on all the contenders, but to him there is only one. He doesn’t like a horse in this year’s Travers, he loves one. He’s logging into his 401k right now to withdraw it all and back the caboose up to the windows.

#7 Mucho Gusto (6/1) – This race has absolutely no pace on paper. The lone Baffert runner in the field, this colt is really progressing late in the 3-year-old season and working well at Del Mar. He gave Maximum Security a Run for his money last start:

and can dictate his trip on the front end. In a field full of closers, Talamo can take him right to the front, or press the pace behind a lower quality horse that sends. He’ll open up as they turn for home and the late runners will have too much work to do. The Conductor will single Mucho Gusto in all his bets Saturday and Saratoga better be wearing its neck brace. The Conductor is going straight for the jugular.

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Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

We don’t want to do better, we need to do better. C’mon Conductor! Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.Mdn 78k

#4 Noble Emotion (8/1) – Bred to go long on the grass, trainer Jonathon Thomas is 27% with a +$0.08 ROI with turf runners this year and can win 1st time out. When Castellano rides for him, they’re live.

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. Clm 75000

#4 Olympic Village (4/1) – He showed talent as a two-year old and is making his return to the races today. He’s working well and Castellano hops aboard for another barn he rarely rides for.

Race 3: 1 3/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 90k

#6 Shennan (7/2) – Making his 2nd start off a layoff and in the US, he should take a big step forward today. He ran well last time out, closing for 3rd into a slow pace.

Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 25000

#3 Flattering Eye’s (12/1) – She was just beaten by a favorite last start and shortens in distance today. This race is wide open.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. OC 62500n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Cove Blue (8/1) – This colt just missed last time after setting a hot pace going 7 furlongs. He’s working like he’s going to run a career best today over the Saratoga track.

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Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 35000

#8 Psalmody (7/5) – Chalk

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) OC 80000b

#5 Maraud (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he had no chance last time trying to close into a tepid pace. He’s a Grade 2 winner and the class of the field.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. F.S.OC 25000n1x

*Never a Doubt Friday Night Stew Lock of the Day #5 Ratajkowski (8/5) – She ran very well just getting nailed in her 1st time routing last time. The Conductor sees her graduating today. Her namesake will be cheering her on.

emily ratajkowski GIF

Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Skidmore Stakes 100k

#4 River Hawk (20/1) – Shipping in from Laurel and taking a huge step up in class, Jose Ortiz takes the mount for a barn he hasn’t ridden for this year. The Conductor has a feeling this boy is live and is also a big name hunch play for the Conductor.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.MC 40000

#8 Blue Parrot (5/1) – 2nd off a layoff, the Conductor thinks she’ll appreciate the added distance after going 5 ½ Furlongs last time.

 

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Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

Yesterday was fun. Except when the Conductor 3 putted from two feet on the 36th hole to lose the match. To be fair, 36 holes and an exuberant amount of stews means it was completely unsanctioned and will be stricken from the record. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/8 Mile. Mdn 90k

#2 One Eyed Jack (5/2) – The “other” Chad in here, the Conductor like him stretching out for the 1st time.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 40000

#1/1A Entry (5/2) – The Conductor sees both entries having major chances.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 90k

#7 Morning Gold (3/1) – She ran a good 2nd in her debut. With a rider upgrade and experience she’ll be tough in this spot.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 32000

#1 Takecharge Mirella (5/1) – This filly is taking a big class drop and has recent figures that would handle this group.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.OC 40000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day#4 Stonefactor (12/1) – She’s coming in off a long layoff, but she has the best figures in the field sprinting on the turf. She won last summer at Saratoga and the Conductor sees her doing it again today at a nice number.

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Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 90k

#10 Mundaye Call (7/2) – This filly was 950k at auction, posting bullet works, and Jose Ortiz hops aboard for a tiny barn. All signs point to her running off the screen.

Race 7: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.Alw 80000n1x

#4 Gosilently (10/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he’s the lone speed in the race and looks to get favorable trip on the front end. He doesn’t like to win often, the Conductor will mostly key him underneath in the exacta and trifecta.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. F.OC 62500n2x

*Never a Doubt Sunday Scary Preventer Lock of the Day #2 Cookie Dough (9/5) – She set a hot pace vs G3 company last time and still held on for 2nd. The Conductor like her at this distance.

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Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Galway Stakes 100K

#3 Sister Peacock (8/1) – She set a hot pace going longer at Woodbine last start and cuts back to a sprint today. She’s yet to miss the board in 7 career starts on multiple distances.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) MC 40000

#2 Hurricane Jake (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he’s dropping to the maiden ranks and stretching out to a turf route for the 1st time. Trainer Phillip Bauer is 27% with a +$1.52 ROI 2nd time Lasix this year.

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Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers in his Bed

The Conductor's Scribe

The conductor needs a day of rest.

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Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Whitney Day Plays at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

After a long day in all aspects of life, the Conductor had enough stew to kill an elephant last night. He can barely open his eyes this morning…..but that’s when he reads the form the best. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 90k

#1 Chimney Rock (8/1) – This colt ran well in his debut in a sprint rained off the turf. He is bred to be much better stretching out on the lawn like he is today.

Race 2: 1 1/8 Mile. Alw 92000n1x

#7 Uncle Sigh (6/1) – This old gelding is a warrior, exiting a troubled trip last time out he offers value today.

Race 3: 7 Furlongs. Mdn 90k

#2 Dubai Bobby (8/1) – The Conductor bet this boy in his debut and he ran a decent closing 3rd. He should appreciate the added furlong and trainer Jonathan Thomas is 29% with a +$0.19 ROI switching horses from turf to dirt this year.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 45000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Siding Spring (8/1) – Dropping in class and shipping in from Woodbine, he’s faced much tougher recently. Woodbine shippers have been running well on the lawn at toga.

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Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) G3 Troy Stakes

#1 World of Trouble (3/5) – He’s a monster.

Race 6: 6½ Furlongs. Mdn 90k

#4 Westport (12/1) – Previously trained by Baffert, he ran a dud in his debut but was well bet. Now in the Servis barn, the Conductor will bet he runs off the screen.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Lure Stakes 100K

#8 Ticonderoga (4/1) – Dropping out of G3 company, he ran a thunderous late pace figure closing into a slow pace last start. The Conductor has always liked his finish.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. F.G1 Test Stakes

#2 Bellafina (2/1) – The Conductor sees her as a cut above these fillies.

Race 9: 1 ¼ Mile. G1 Whitney Stakes

*Feature Double Barreled Favorite Beater #4 Thunder Snow (3/1) – The Conductor will use two horses in the feature to try and beat the favorite #6 Mckinzie (7/5). Mckinzie is ultra-talented, but he must prove to the Conductor he can win a race of this caliber going this far at a short price. Thunder Snow is tough as nails and one of the Conductor’s favorite horses in training.

#8 Preservationist (3/1) – Improving with every start and added distance, his win in the Grade 2 Suburban last time against a good horse in Catholic Boy gained the Conductor’s attention.

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***Thunder Snow Has Scratched, All Aboard #8 Preservationist

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.De La Rose Stakes 100K

#5 Rock My Love (9/2) – Dropping out of Grade 2 stakes company where she ran well, the Conductor sees her taking a big step forward in her 2nd start off a long layoff.

Race 11: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.Alw 80000n1x

#6 Brockmoninoff (8/1) – Coming in off a long layoff, he broke his maiden impressively at Saratoga last year at this distance. George Weaver will break through at the Spa soon.

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Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor’s play of the day yesterday came back a nice 25/1 for an ice cold double at Saratoga (Suck It). He then couldn’t hit the broad side of the barn at Del Mar, but the Conductor will take it. He likes a bunch of nice prices on today’s card, let’s get the train into 2nd gear. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 75k

#2 Get Smokin (8/1) – Whenever Castellano hops aboard a debut runner for a low % barn, the horses tend to outrun their odds. The Conductor will key him in the exacta and trifecta.

#3 Frosted Rose (6/1) – She was well bet in her debut and showed a strong finish despite a troubled trip. She adds blinkers today and Rosario hops aboard.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.Alw 25000s

#4 Lady’s Island (3/5) – The Conductor can’t see her losing.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. MC 50000

#9 Feeling It (8/1) – The Conductor has a feeling that Kentucky Shippers will continue to run well on the dirt, even from Ellis Park.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.S. MC 40000

#1 Ideational (5/2) – Chad Brown.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 30000n2L

#12 Avocado Toast (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she pressed a hot pace and was just nailed at the wire vs similar in her comeback race. She is quick enough early to be in a good spot going into the turn.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. Clm 16000n2L

#3 Gray Nile (2/1) – The Conductor doesn’t know why he was so bad last time, but if that race didn’t exist, he’d be 3/5 in here. The big class drop and switch to Saez will wake him up.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.S.OC 40000n2x

#3 Broken Border (3/1) – She’s exiting a nice victory and is now 3rd off the layoff. Trainer Jason Servis is 12/25 with a +$2.37 ROI with horses moving from two sprints to a route this year.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

*Never a Doubt Chad Brown Leg Lock of the Day #5 My Sister Nat (6/5) – 2nd time in the US, she’s the class of the field.

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Race 9: 1 ¾ Mile. Birdstone Stakes 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Third Day (8/1) – Dropping out of graded stakes company and switching back to dirt where he’s run his best, his late pace figures suggest the added distance will suit him well.

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Race 10: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.Mdn 78k

#6 Zechariah (12/1) – Coming in off the layoff after being clipped, he’s taken money in each start and has shown ability. Graham Motion brings geldings back ready to run.

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Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor got off to a great start at Saratoga before mother nature ended his fun like the cruel witch she can be. Races 6 and 8 are on the turf today while 2,3 and 10 are off. Let’s pick up where we left off, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 7 Furlongs. F.MC 50000

#5 G. T. Sonia (10/1) – The heavy favorite #3 Countenance (3/5) is the one to beat, but this is the price the Conductor likes most. She’s run the fastest figures of the rest of the group and gets red-hot Alvarado in the irons.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (OFF Turf) S.Mdn 78k

#8 Assault Breaker (5/2) – He looks like the clear one to beat on the dirt after scratches.

Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs. (OFF Turf) Alw 92000n1x

#7 Bernin’ Thru Gold (5/2) – He pressed a hot pace last start and still held on for 3rd. The Conductor sees him taking a step forward.

Race 4: 1 1/8 Mile. F.OC 625003x

#2 Viva Forever (6/1) – This mare ran a clunker last time, but if you toss that race out, she looks to have as good a chance as any in here.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 12500

#8 Ivy’s College Fund (8/1) – 3rd off the layoff, she’s trending in the right direction and the Conductor sees her taking another step forward today. The Conductor’s kids better get scholarships.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 90k

#7 Ocean Fire (4/1) – Making her 2nd carreer start, she ran a good 3rd in her debut. Mott runners always improve with a race under their belt.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.Alw 60000n1x

#6 Slimey (6/1) – Stepping up in class after a good win at Saratoga only 9 days ago. The Conductor loves her steady progression.

Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.OC 40000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Colonel Tom (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he drops back into state-bred company and has the fastest early pace figures in the field. He’ll be a big price because jockey Dylan Davis has yet to find the winners circle this meet.

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Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. Curlin Stakes 100k

*Never a Doubt Friday Night Bottle Service Lock of the Day #1 Intrepid Heart (7/2) – He was too far back behind a slow pace in the Belmont and was the wise guy horse that day. With major class relief here, the Conductor thinks there is still talent under the hood.

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Race 10: 1 Mile. (OFF Turf) S.MC 40000

#2 Talespin (12/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he showed good early speed and ran a good 3rd behind a next out winner last time.

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Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

13 race card today at Saratoga with the cancellation yesterday. The Conductor is ready for war. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: Hurdle Race, pick your favorite color.

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L

#7 Heyitsnricopalazo (12/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this gelding has the best early pace figures in the field in a sprint without much pace. The Conductor loves him.

Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) MC 65000

#9 Value Engineering (1/1) – Clearly the one to beat, the Conductor will use #2 Skywriting (6/1) and #5 Crypto Gold (12/1) in the exacta. Both 1st off the claim for Linda Rice.

Race 4: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G1 Coaching Club American Oaks

#5 Point of Honor (7/2) – Her win last time in the Black-Eyed Susan was legit, closing into a slow pace. She’s proven at the distance while the heavy favorite #1 Guarana (2/5) isn’t. Guarana looks like a super filly, but the Conductor is a skeptical man.

Race 5: 1 1/8 Mile. Mdn 90k

*Never a Doubt Best Bet of the Day #4 Scars Are Cool (6/1) – Favored at Churchill last time, he ran well closing into a slow pace. The added distance will be his friend.

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Race 6: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Clm 30000n2L

#12 Kinky Sox (10/1) – She showed ability at Saratoga in 2017 and has run well at Tampa in her return to the races this year.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 90k

#7 Mom’s Pass (4/1) – Drawn well, if she runs the same race as last time, she’ll be tough to beat.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 90k

#3 Yankee Empire (6/1) – He was very rank in his debut and still ran well. With some experience and natural progression, he’ll have every chance.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Alw 92000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 King Cause (8/1) – He stepped forward when he tried turf for the first time two starts back and had no chance trying to close into a tepid pace last time. With low % connections his price will only go higher, the Conductor will key him in the exacta and trifecta.

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Race 10: 7 Furlongs. OC 62500n2x

#8 Borracho (7/2) – This son of Uncle Mo was flying late in the Woody Stephens. He looks to get a good setup again today.

Race 11: 5 ½ Furlongs (Turf) F.Caress Stakes

#3 Fire Key (5/1) – This mare has a chance to wire the field. She shortens in distance today and has wicked early pace figures.

Race 12: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.Alw 80000n1x

#11 Bad Guy (6/1) – Dropping back to state bred competition, he’s run well in all three of his career starts on turf. He should have been running on the lawn all along.

Race 13: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G3 Shuvee Stakes

#1 She’s a Julie (2/1) – 3rd off the layoff, she has recency over the favorite #5 Wow Cat (9/5). She’s also exiting the toughest last race in the field having faced Elate last time.

 

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Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor still has no feel for Saratoga, but he still has some money to play with today! With the extreme heat forecast for this weekend and Saturday racing canceled, it is imperative for the Conductor to score today. Now that we got away with chasing, time to press! Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 7 Furlongs. S.MC 25000

#7 Therisastormbrewin (8/1) – Dropping in class, 1st time gelding and adding blinkers, the ultimate equipment change is always dangerous.

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. F.Clm 25000

#5 Queen Kahen (6/1) – She’s working well 2nd off the claim for Linda Rice. Linda is 22% with a +$0.17 ROI switching horses from turf to dirt this year.

Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 78k

#1 Dearly Declared (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she’s shown some very quick early pace figures and will appreciate the shorter distance. With the poor rail draw the Conductor sees her price floating up.

Race 4: 7 Furlongs. Clm 20000

#5 Getoffmyback (5/1) – 2nd off the layoff and shipping in from Churchill, he looks to get a perfect trip on or near a slow pace.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 90k

#7 Mrs. Danvers (7/2) – This filly is working well by all counts and Rosario hops aboard.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 50000s

#2 Willing to Speed (6/1) – He’s the best turf horse of the bunch in the Conductor’s eyes. However, he does have a case of 2nditus. The Conductor thinks the switch to Irad will get him over the hump.

Race 7: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) OC 62500n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Midnight Tea Time (10/1) – 2nd off the layoff, his last two races have been rained off the turf. He gets back to his preferred surface today and is a very consistent runner. The Conductor will key him in the exacta and trifecta.

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Race 8: 6 Furlongs. OC 80000n3x

#4 Honorable Treasure (12/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he won nicely last start in his return to the races. His figures fit, and he looks to get a nice setup with a hot pace to run at today.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Lake George Stakes

#7 Blowout (2/1) – 4 horse field with 3 Chad Brown runners? What a joke of a betting race.

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. MC 40000

*Never a Doubt Friday Stew Best Bet of the Day #1 Goose Drank Wine (8/1) – Working well 3rd off the layoff, he has the best late pace figures in the field. The added distance will suit him nicely.

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