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Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Late Pick 4 Plays at Belmont Park and Churchill Downs

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor sucked yesterday at Churchill, not what we wanted heading into the weekend. However, we have nice weather today and a chance to make some scores. The Conductor will focus his attention on the late pick 4’s in Louisville and Belmont. Let’s Ride.

Belmont Park Late Pick 4

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 50000s

This is a spread race for the Conductor, but he’s going to TOSS the morning line favorite #10 Xanthique (5/2) drawn to the far outside.

He’ll use #1 Tizaprincessa (8/1), #4 Sun Summers (7/2), #6 Cockstrikestwelve (6/1), #7 Zandora (8/1), and #9 the Nine O (4/1).

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. S.Alw 66000n1x

#7 The Big Lebanese (5/1) – Cutting back to a sprint, he looks to get a perfect trip today with plenty of speed to run at.  He hasn’t gotten the setup in his prior sprints.

The Conductor will also use #5 Elios Milos (2/1) and #9 Smokin Platinum (3/1).

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.100K Wild Applause Stakes

#4 Nova Sol (5/2) – 2nd off the layoff, she ran very well last start in the Hilltop after a troubled trip. Chad Brown will in this race.

The Conductor will also use #6 Blowout (2/1)

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) S.MC 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Hudson Overpass (12/1) – He split the field vs tougher in his debut and ran sneaky well last time at this level. He dueled, setting a hot pace early and was only beaten 3 ½ lengths even though he finished 10th.

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The Conductor will also use #3 Blue Parrot (10/1), #6 Champagne Chiils (4/1) and #7 Jack the Cat (6/1).

Churchill Downs Late Pick 4

Race 8: 1 Mile. F.OC 80000b

#7 In the Mood (6/1) – She ran a very good 2nd last time setting a hot at this level. She’s working even better leading in to today.

The Conductor will also use #2 Clever Serve (5/1) and #3 Devine Queen (7/2).

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#2 Altito (30/1) – He’s an absolute bomb the Conductor will use and key in the trifecta. He’s a proven winner on dirt and ran a solid 4th closing into a slow pace last time. He hasn’t had many chances on turf, but his race at Kentucky downs last fall makes him competitive in here.

The Conductor will also use #4 Cowboy Culture (6/1), #6 Dontblamerocket (4/1) and #8 Keep Quiet (5/2).

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.Roxelana Overnight Stakes

*Never a Doubt Summer Saturday Night Lock of the Day #2 Covfefe (7/5) – The Conductor will toss #10 Mia Mischeif (8/5) and won’t use any backups in this race. This girl put on an absolute show down at Pimlico last start.  She’s the goods.

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Race 11: 6½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 95k

#3 Double Axel (3/1) – She ran a hard charging 2nd after a slow start in her debut. Her recent works suggest she’ll graduate today.

#11 Risky Mandate (5/1) – Is the only backup the Conductor will use.

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Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Fathers day Late Pick Plays at Churchill Downs

The Conductor's Scribe

Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Stephen Foster Late Pick 5 Plays at Churchill Downs

Choo Chooooooo!!!!!! Talk about handing out the Pick 5 on a platter.  Thank you Mr. Conductor! I will buy lots of shirts to show my gratitude, and a hat too! Let’s do it again, Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. F.MC 30000

#7 Blunt Force (10/1) – Dropping in class 2nd off the layoff and switching back to dirt, shes the price the Conductor likes most.

This is a spread race however, he’ll also use #2 A. P. Princess (4/1), #3 Singsong Bird (8/1), #4 Traci’s Greeley (15/1), #5 Spackle (3/1) and #8 Fire on High (10/1).

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L

#1 Cosmic Hallelujah (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he pressed a hot pace and folded going last time.  The Conductor loves him on the cutback.

He’ll also use #2 British Humor (3/1), #8 Salt Air (4/1), #9 Homeview (8/1), #10 Jimmy Joe (4/1).

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 97000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Bundibunan (12/1) – She ran a good 3rd last start and is steadily progressing.  Her last work shows she’s ready to fire.

golf sprinkler GIF

The Conductor will also use #8 Face of Victory (6/1) and #11 Broth (5/1).

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. F.Clm 50000n2L

*Never a Doubt Fathers Day Lock #1/1A Entry (3/1) – Dropping to the claiming ranks for the first time, the race goes thru the Asmussen runners. One of these girls will fire.

fathers day wedding GIF by America's Funniest Home Videos

Race 10: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 95k

Spread to end it. #1 Dreams are Made (9/2), #4 Drop Dead Gorgeous (12/1), #7 Yes It’s Ginger (4/1), #8 Nikki Beach (6/1), #12 Holiday Time (7/2)

 

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Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

The Conductor's Scribe

That was sadly the best result for the Conductor all day. Very sad indeed, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L

#5 Quest for Fire (5/2) – Drawn well to the outside, he just missed at this level last time and looks to get a perfect trip today.

Race 2: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 62k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Running on Entry (8/1) – The Conductor liked her debut, closing into a moderate pace.  She should appreciate an added furlong.

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Race 3: 6 Furlongs. Clm 12500

#4 Toohottoevenspeak (3/1) – With pace to run at, he should get a perfect setup to close into. The Conductor will key him in the exacta.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 80k

#2 Funny Flowers (8/1) – She had no chance in her debut, trying to close into the slowest of paces.  The Conductor will she what she is made of today.

Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 40000n2L

#3 Carlisle Belle (8/1) – Its tough to back a filly that is 1/16 lifetime, but you need to zig when others zag in this game. This race is going to have an extremely hot pace and she’ll be running late. The Conductor will key her in the exacta.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) MC 40000

#7 Solar (6/1) – He drops in class and adds blinkers today.  Castellano takes the mount, which is a good sign.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 82000n1x

#7 Go Rose (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she ran a strong late pace figure in her American debut and will take a step forward today.

Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Alw 82000n1x

*Never a Doubt US Open Lock of the Day #3 Mizzen Max (5/2) – 2nd off the layoff and getting back to a fast track, her race two starts back at Saratoga buries this field.

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Race 9: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.S.MC 40000

#7 Traci’s Girl (6/1) – She set a wicked pace on turf last time and switches back to dirt today.  She has a pace edge and the Conductor is salivating at that price.

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Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Belmont Park

The Conductor's Scribe

They always run the next day and there is always another race in 20 minutes. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 16000n2L

#1 Ok Honey (4/1) – Plunging in class, she’s cutting back to a sprint and the rail was the place to be all yesterday.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Mdn 62k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 The Happy Giant (20/1) – 2nd off the layoff for a new barn, her race two back at Laurel gives her a major chance.  The Conductor will key her in the exacta and trifecta.

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Race 3: 6 Furlongs. 150k Jersey Girl Stakes

#3 Break Even (3/5) – Chalk

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. S.F MC 25000

#7 Too Many Tales (7/2) – She has to graduate today or she never will.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) S.MC 40000

#2 Game Break (6/1) – He took money at the windows and set a hot pace before folding in his debut. He’ll take a big step forward today.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) Clm 40000

#8 Bold Daddy (6/1) – He moved early into a hot pace last time. He’s very dangerous in his 2nd start for Servis.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Clm 32000

*Never a Doubt Lock From God #3 Flat Rate (4/1) – The Conductor liked his maiden breaker at Parx and that he shortens a furlong today.

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Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) S.Alw 66000n1x

#1 Everyonelovesjames (2/1) – He has a major early pace edge over this group.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) OC 80000n1x

#2 Honey Won’t (5/2) – The Conductor doesn’t have a strong opinion in this race.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) S.MC 40000

#6 Dove Shoot (5/1) – He pressed a hot pace vs tougher last start. He drops back to where he fits today.

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The Conductor’s Belmont Stakes Preview

The Conductor's Scribe

The posts drew for the Belmont last night and now it’s time to go to work.  There is an inordinate number of deep closers in this race, and the Conductor hopes all the suckers fall for them because of the added distance.  This race will favor those in the first flight like it has the last in the last decade.

Race 11: 1 1/2 Mile. G1 Belmont Stakes

#1 Joevia (30/1) – He caused the chaos in the Wood and came back for a gate to wire win in a prep race last start. He’s the bomb the Conductor is most intrigued about in this race.  He’s the lone horse that want the lead. If he breaks well and goes right to the front, he can get brave late and surprise everyone but the Conductor.  The Conductor will use him heavily in 2nd and 3rd in the trifecta and possibly a sprinkle on top.

#2 Everfast (12/1) – He road a gold rail and got a hot pace to close into in the Preakness, the Conductor won’t use him anywhere especially at that price.

#3 Master Fencer (8/1) – The Derby was a funky race with the track and he’ll be coming from way out of it.  He missed the break and ran well, but if he’s not double-digit odds the Conductor won’t use anywhere.  The Conductor will make him prove him wrong

#4 Tax (15/1) – The Conductor is drawing a line thru his Derby race.  If you do that he fits very nicely in this spot. The distance is a question, but he’ll get a perfect trip up close to a slow pace. The Conductor will use him heavily in 2nd and 3rd and maybe a few saver tickets on top.

*#5 Bourbon War (12/1) – He ran a dud in the Preakness, but the Conductor will give him another shot taking the blinkers back off.  He can run all day and the Conductor thinks he may have the most potential of any runner in this group.  The Conductor will lean on that live Florida Derby form.

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#6 Spinoff (15/1) – Just copy and paste what the Conductor said about tax. He looks to get a dream trip and the Conductor sees him running well.

#7 Sir Wisnston (15/1) – He took a major step forward in the Peter Pan last start, but he helped with a hot pace to close into. The Conductor can’t see him any better than 3rd.

#8 Intrepid Heart (10/1) – He stumbled at the start in the Peter Pan and was prepping for this race all along.  He adds blinkers, will be forwardly placed and is very dangerous. The Conductor will use him in all 3 spots in the trifecta.

#9 War of Will (2/1) – He won nicely in the Preakness, but you can’t ask for a better trip.  Its hard to see him not running well here, but the stubborn Conductor will take a stand against him on top.  He’ll allow him to run 2nd or 3rd.

*#10 Tacitus (9/5) – The Conductor liked him a lot going into the Derby and he ran a solid race. He should be mid-pack and will grind all day like Belmont winners do. He’s the one to beat.

triple crown GIF by Mashable

A Contenders: #5 Bourbon War, #10 Tacitus

B Contenders: #8 Intrepid Heart

C Contenders: #1 Joevia, #4 Tax, #6 Spinoff

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Moon Shot Monday: The Conductor’s Memorial Day Plays at Belmont Park

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor continues to harm himself mentally, physically, emotionally and financially, but that’s the cross he bears. He is free to conduct as he pleases because of the brave men and women who have lost their lives protecting this great country.  Today we celebrate those soldiers by drinking more stews and betting ponies not because we want to, but because its what they would have wanted.  The Conductor thanks all those who have served and are serving.  Let’s have ourselves a Monday, Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.SMC 40000

#2 Mike’s Girl (3/1) – Dropping to the claiming ranks for the first time, she’ll graduate today. Start the Pick 6 off with a single.

Race 7: 1 Mile. F.S.Critical Eye Stakes 200k

#2 Midnight Disguise (8/1) – She’s the price the Conductor likes. She’s caught a sloppy track in her last two starts and will have pace to run at.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) S.Kingston Stakes 125k

#2 Therapist (2/1) – The Conductor needs to see him this week for sure.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. S.Mike Lee Stakes 125k

*Double Barreled Gullet Shots #2 Frosted Ice (10/1) – 2nd off the layoff the Conductor is looking for horses that can sit of the pace in this one. They are going to fly up front.

#8 Bankit (10/1) – He looks to get a great trip as well.

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Race 10: 1 Mile. S.Commentator Stakes 200k

*Never a Doubt Freedom Lock of the day #1 Honor Up (7/2) – Finishing only 1 3/4 lengths behind World of Trouble last start, the Conductor will hammer him over 5/2.

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Race 11: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) S.MC 40000

#3 Hudson Overpass (15/1) – Dropping in class he pressed a hot pace vs tougher in his debut. The Conductor will key him in the trifecta.

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Win Win Win Swooped But He Did Not Pounce

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor needs to slumber. See ya in the mornin.

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Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Black Eyed Susan Day Plays at Pimlico

The Conductor's Scribe

14 race card, what a war. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 10000

#2 Midnight Mass (5/1) – She pressed a hot pace vs tougher going a mile and is cutting back to a sprint. Easy winner to start the card.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) OClm 25000

#8 Family Tree (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff, dropping in class, he showed good form across the pond. He also adds blinkers today.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 50k

#1 China Cat (4/1) – She bets this group and graduates today.

Race 4: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) MC 40000

#5 Ready to Run (15/1) – He’s the quickest early and with a name like that you know this boy is live.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Alw 52000n1x

#8 The Aurelia Factor (6/1) – If Baffert is shipping in this filly, she’s ready to run.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 52000n1x

#7 Seeking the Sunset (6/1) – Her last two blowout wins have caught the Conductor’s eye. 2nd off the layoff there is no reason not to play her.

Race 7 – 11: Black-Eyed Susan Day Late Pick 5 Preview

Race 12: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) Turf Sprint Stakes 100K

*Never a Doubt Friday Night Lock of the Day #3 Bound for Nowhere (1/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he’s a class above.

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Race 13: 1 1/8 Mile. D.G3 Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes

#5 Another Broad (7/2) – The fillies come and the fillies go.

Race 14: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 25000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Go Amanda (10/1) – She’s run well on the dirt and her breeding suggests she’ll step forward on the turf. The Conductor will go for the throat in the finally.

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The Conductor’s Kentucky Derby Recap

The Conductor's Scribe

Oh what could have been. The Conductor is still having nightmares about the end of a great Saturday. Now that he can see straight, he’s watched the tape a few times and has a few things to recap.

  1. The auxiliary gate is an absolute joke and #14 Win Win Win lost all chance after getting slammed at the start. He ran very well to split the field and the Conductor hopes he runs in the Preakness.

This has happened with the 14 and 15 posts most times the last few years. The two gates are angled towards each other. It’s preposterous that in the biggest race of the year you have an amateur hour gate. Build a 20-horse gate @Churchill Downs, you made enough money this weekend.

  1. It rains every 1st Saturday in May in Louisville and the Conductor is sick of it.

He doesn’t have a solution for this, but wants the pony gods to cut the shit.  The surface was great all day and then we got a deluge that completely changed how the track was playing right before the Derby.  On a day like Saturday with rain forecast for the late afternoon, you could move the post times up, or not have 1 ½ hours between the Old Forester and the Derby.  Once the downpour occurred, the Conductor could feel there was trouble brewing.

  1. The Disqualification of Maximum Security

Upon soberly watching the replays, the Conductor is ok with the disqualification if there was any consistency in horse racing.  Maximum Security does drift out on the turn multiple paths and that should not be allowed, but War of Will was already up his ass and the Conductor has seen much worse infractions not get penalized.  Thankfully no horses fell after clipping heals, which would of ended in catastrophe.  If you were alive to a huge score to Maximum Security, the Conductor feels sick for you and congrats to those loony bins who had Country House.  He’ll put it this way, if Baffert or Mott trained Maximum Security, he wouldn’t have gotten DQ’d and that’s a problem.

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Saturday took a lot out of the Conductor, but he will not lay down and quit.  The Preakness is only two weeks away and the Conductor will get back on the capping train tomorrow.  Lesser men like us would take a back seat after getting so close to a life changing score.  But that’s why we’re passengers and he is the one we chose to drive the train.  Beware Pimlico, you may think the Conductor will come coasting in nice and easy. Instead he’s blasting the train right through your gates full throttle.

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The Conductor is Sad

The Conductor's Scribe

On a day when the Conductor was seeing the ball that clearly, he should have been up a billion dollars.  He needs a day of rest to lick his wounds.

He may of had too many stews……see ya Monday.