Pony Conductor Picks: Keeneland Saturday 4/15/23

0/3 Friday brought the train to a screeching halt. We’ll let Keeneland have win one round, but that’s it. Back to domination today when the pools are the fattest. Start shoveling. Skip.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Tepeu (9/2) – This 1st time gelding showed talent last summer when they switched him over to dirt. He’s working well entering today and should take a step forward in his first start as a 4-year-old. Any improvement will make him tough to beat and we should get a fair price with this contentious field. The Conductor will happily bet against the favorite #1 Barber Road (5/2), who loves to settle for 2nd and 3rd.

keeneland

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Giant’s Causeway Stakes

#5 Amy C (6/1) – This turf sprint is going to have a scorching pace and the Conductor is looking for a closer. The Conductor loves the versatility this mare has shown in her career. She’s won over synthetic, routing on turf and sprinting down the hill at Santa Anita. She has enough early speed to keep in touch with this field and will be flying late.

#7 Opening Buzz (15/1) – This filly also has a strong late punch and she’s 5/7 sprinting on turf and synthetic. Her fastest race came sprinting at 5 furlongs at Del Mar on the grass, so the Conductor likes the surface switch. She looks to get a perfect trip and will be a juicy number.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. G3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes

#6 Disarm (7/2) – The Conductor thinks we’ll get a fair 7/2 on this colt and he’s by far the most likely winner.  His 2nd in the Louisiana Derby was much better than it looks on paper. He closed strongly into a slow pace and against a track that was favoring speed.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 Jenny Wiley Stakes

#2 In Italian (7/5) – While #3 Queen Goddess (4/1) and #5 With The Moonlight (5/2) pose legitimate threats, the Conductor has to eat chalk and trust her early pace edge. She ran too good too lose in last year’s Breeders’ Cup over this Keeneland turf course and Tuesday isn’t in this field.

Race 11: 6½ Furlongs. F.OC 80000n2x

#9 My Kentucky Girl (10/1) – All four of this filly’s races on a fast dirt track give her a chance to win this race. She is the best closer in the field and there will be plenty of pace in front of her to run at. In her only start at Keeneland vs similar, she dominated at 7/1.

#1 Your So Sillea (20/1) – The Conductor has to mention this girl as well. She exits the same synthetic race as My Kentucky Girl, where she ran very well despite a troubled trip. She also has past dirt form that makes her competitive at this level and a win over this Keeneland surface.

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