Month: August 2023

0/3 with two short priced 2nds Wednesday has the train leaking oil to start the Saratoga racing week. Fortunately, the forecast cleared up for today and we’re fast and firm with limited scratches. It looks like the weather gods won’t be kind tomorrow, so we need to answer the bell now. Let’s Ride.

Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) OC 80000b

#3 Easter (2/1) – This gelding overcame trouble to win two starts back and ran a strong 3rd with a poor trip last time at Saratoga. He was far back in a merry go round race and still showed a strong late kick to make up significant ground. He draws well today and Prat returns in the irons. His recent form is even better than it looks on paper and 2/1 against this field would be an overlay for the Conductor.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Fauci (8/1) – He ran huge 1st off the bench last time. He closed from last against the flow and was the only horse to pass runners in the stretch. Now 2nd off a layoff, he’ll get more pace to run at today and will be flying late. The only concern for the Conductor is that Fauci settles for 2nd too often. He hasn’t missed the board in his 5 starts at Saratoga, but has yet to get his picture taken. He can still beat this group and should be a square price with a full field. The time is now.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.G2 Mohegan Sun Ballston Spa Stakes

#1 Jumbly (6/1) – This isn’t the strongest Grade 2 stakes field and this filly has been running well vs tougher across the pond. She gets a nice rail draw today and will get a nice ground saving trip. All of the Chad Brown runners will be over bet and they aren’t his most talented fillies. The Conductor will take a swing with the European invader.

0/3 Saturday at Saratoga left the Conductor sucking his thumb on Sunday. The train needed maintenance on the Lord’s day, so we kept it in the station. There were a few sacrifices made to the pony gods as well. It’s a new racing week, and it looks like today is the only day in the forecast without rain. We need to make them pay early. This glorious weather will not leave. It’s Travers week, Skip.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. S.Mdn 88k

#3 Mischief Joke (9/5) – This colt continues to steadily progress and the extra furlong should benefit him today. A first time starter will have to be very good to jump up and beat him. He’ll be a tepid favorite, but the Conductor will single Mischeif Joke to start the pick 5 while other passengers will spread.

Race 7: 1 5/8 Mile. (Turf) John’s Call Stakes

#8 Sy Dog (5/1) – He showed talent last year and looks to be rounding back into form after his last start. He ran a strong late pace figure closing into a slow pace that day and will mow be making his 3rd start off the bench. He’s a Grade 3 winner and his best race last year came going 3 turns over this Saratoga turf course. The two favorites will be hammered in here, so his morning line may be light too. He can beat this group.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. S.OC 45000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Prince of Pharoahs (6/1) – This gelding continues to improve with each start in the Dutrow barn. Last time at Belmont he failed as the favorite, but that can be excused. He pressed a hot pace going a mile that day and the Ductor loves the cutback to 7 furlongs. Irad’s mounts for Dutrow have been live lately and this gelding looks no different. He looks to get a perfect trip pressing the inside speed in the 2-path.

Goose egg Wednesday brought the train to a screeching halt. They took two races off the turf at Saratoga again today, while four remain on. With rain in the forecast Friday, we need to bring in some coal quick. While scouring the form and tape, the Conductor can only come up with one measly play today. If you only have one bullet, you best not miss. Skip.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) S.OC 45000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Fatima’s Blessing (8/1) – This gelding ran well including a victory despite poor turf trips at Belmont and Aqueduct this spring. He returned off a short break vs open company at Monmouth last time and was far back behind a slow pace. He ran another strong late pace figure that day and looks primed to run his best at Saratoga in his 2nd start back in the Michael Dini barn. This race should have a quick early pace, which will benefit Fatima’s Blessing as well.

The train is humming after a big weekend with Business model getting home at 11/1 Sunday. Saratoga doesn’t want us to have nice things, so all but two races are off the turf today. Lucky for us, The Conductor has opinions in both. Let’s pick up where we left off Sunday and make NYRA pay. Skip.

Saratoga Race 5: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Front Man (6/1) – This is a great betting race where you could make a case for many. It’s not a strong allowance field and the Conductor likes this gelding quite a bit at a square price. He won two back at this distance and ran sneaky well last time stepping up in class to this level. He closed best in a merry go round race and galloped out with the leaders. He’ll like stretching back out 1 1/8 mile today and is one of only two runners in the field with a win at the distance.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.S.Suzie O’Cain Stakes

#3 Im Just Kiddin (8/1) – This filly is clearly tough to ride. She’s had terrible trips in her last 4 starts. The Conductor played her last time when she finally got a rider switch and she received another no chance trip from the 9 post. She was 3-wide on the 1st turn and 4-wide + uncovered on the 2nd turn. Im Just Kidden draws well today and the Conductor thinks Saez will give her a desperately needed fair chance. She has talent and can upset this field at a juicy number.

#7 Orange Freeze (5/1) – The Conductor thinks this this filly is the most likely winner. This morning line seems high, but a boy can dream. She continues to impress Mr. Ductor with powerful wide moves on the turn. She improves with each start and gets a rider upgrade to Prat today. There is nothing not to like.

That’s what the Ductor ordered. Casa Creed gets the job done at 9/5 and Spinning Color’s gets Saratoga’s gullet at 6/1 Saturday. Now we’re fast and firm with almost no scratches today? What a treat. Let’s make it a weekend to remember. Skip.

Race 3: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 32000

#6 Nifty (8/1) – This old hard knocker had no chance last time at Saratoga after breaking slow. He was far back behind a slow pace on a track that was favoring inside speed. Now he drops in class 2nd off the layoff and will be forwardly placed with a clean break. This sprint is also devoid of other early pace, which makes this gelding very dangerous.

Race 4: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 136.5k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 American Know How (5/1) – This colt can’t be 5/1, if he’s over 3/1 the Conductor will be hammering him. How can any self respecting horse player watch his last race and not back him here. He had a terrible turf trip, pressing 4-wide, uncovered the entire turn and just tired the last few jumps. American Know How was clearly best in that race and now has a better post position. He takes on similar group here, and the Ductor will be smiling when he gets his picture taken. America Still knows. Skip.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. OC 62500n2x

#8 Business Model (15/1) – The Conductor thinks this gelding has an outside shot to win and a good chance to hit the board as the longest price in this Saratoga field. This race is loaded with early speed and has the potential to melt down. When he cut back back to a sprint last time, this gelding ran a huge late pace figure closing into a moderate pace. With an extra 1/2 furlong today and a better set up, he should fire a big effort. It’s a positive sign that Jose stays aboard as well.

Finally back on the turf today at Saratoga for the first time since Sunday…except the last two full field races where the Conductor had plays in. This meet has sucked the soul out of the Conductor. The middle part of the card is solid at least, let’s see if we can kick off the weekend strong. Skip.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

#4 Lady Milagro (6/1) – This filly missed the break last time and then rushed up chasing the pace 3-wide. It’s a race you can completely ignore and her prior turf races fit with this group. She should get the lead today, in a race without any other early pace. The 5 1/2 furlongs is perfect for her and she gets a weight break against this field. The scratches kill this race from a value perspective, but the Conductor will single her as the longest shot in a 4-horse field. Gate to wire.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. S.Mdn 88k

#3 Canigetaloan (8/1) – This is a classic Saratoga maiden race chalk full of 1st time starters. This colt has the strongest work tab and will be an overlay with Pletcher and Chad Brown runners in the field. The Conductor also likes that Rosario takes the mount for a barn he almost never rides for.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) G2 National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes

#4 Ocean Vision (12/1) – This is by far the best race on today’s card. You can make a case for many, but the Conductor will take a swing with this colt from France at a juicy price. He has strong back class and has shown he can run well over a good turf course, which he’ll get today. The European shippers have dominated the American runners in the big turf races thus far this meet. Plus, all of the Americans in here have run on nothing but firm turf thus far in their careers.

White Abarrio at 10/1 in the Whitney saved the Conductor’s Saratoga Saturday from a financial standpoint. Castellano got Webslinger beat again and Maple Leaf Mel…well, what is there to say. The Conductor would be lying if he said he was excited to watch and play the races after that. He still isn’t feeling great this morning. This game can suck and it’s tough to knock the haters when breakdowns keep happening over and over and over. RIP Maple Leaf Mel, let’s get the winners home safely today.

Race 4: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner) F.OC 62500n2x

#1 Frivole (7/2) – This filly was a solid stakes horse in France and she romped in her US debut two starts back. Last time she flopped as the favorite, but that effort can be excused. She was wide and far back behind a very slow pace over a yielding turf course. She draws the rail today and should get a much more favorable trip. The Conductor thinks she lays over this Saratoga field, and 5/2 is fair enough for him.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 40000

#9 It Wasn’t Me (9/2) – This filly debuted last year over a quirky Kentucky Downs turf course. When she returned to the races last start, she ran a decent 2nd in a race taken off the turf. She gets back to the turf today and drops to the claiming ranks for the first time. She hasn’t gotten a fair shot on a typical turf course and she’s bred to be a mower. The Conductor thinks she’ll be an overlay in a competitive, but weak field.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) S.MC 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Prix de West (8/1) – This colt had a no chance trip in his debut sprinting on the dirt in April. He took money vs tougher that day and has been working well since. Now, he drops in class and stretches out to a route on the turf. He’s bred to mow and has major upside moving to the turf for the first time.