Month: February 2024

1/3 Wednesday at Gulfstream, but the Gullet Shot winner was bet down to 9/5. Good thing this racing week is just getting started. Today’s card stinks, but Saturday’s is mouth watering. Skip.

Race 4: 1m70yds. (All-Weather) F.Clm 8000n2L

#9 Pimenova (6/1) – This mare plunges in class and switches to the synthetic after a dull effort on the Gulfstream turf last time. Her turf races last fall put her in the winners circle here and Irad wouldn’t be taking the mount if she couldn’t run anymore. 4/1 would be fair price for the Conductor.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (All-Weather) Clm 16000

#2 Sanpirodu (6/1) – Most of these competitors are exiting a Gulfstream race at this level that was very slow. This colt is taking a monstrous class drop after switching to turf last time. He returns to synthetic where he’s run his best races and should be dead fit in his 3rd start off a layoff. His past synthetic speed figures are also among the best in this field as well. With a nice inside post, Sanpirodu looks to get a favorable trip.

Race 7: 5 Furlongs. (All-Weather) OC 25000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Famous Gent (9/2) – This gelding missed the break in a turf sprint last time and had no chance. He was favored vs tougher that day and now returns to the synthetic. He won his last start over this surface three stats back and the Conductor sees him as the most likely winner in the field. Trainer Fernando Abreau is 6/17 with a +$0.65 ROI this year with beaten favorites in their next start. 9/2 would be a dream, but 3/1 is still fair.

Two 2nds and a dud Sunday continues the Conductor’s spiral of despair at Gulfstream. The only good news is that we crushed last Wednesday. May history repeat itself. Skip.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (All-Weather) Clm 12500b

#3 Sarawat (8/1) – This gelding had a rough start sprinting last time and closed well behind a slow pace. Now they stretch him out to a route in a race devoid of any pace. He’s won at this distance before and Saez will use his early speed and give him a good aggressive ride. He is a threat to wire this field.

#7 Officer Country (15/1) – This gelding ran a good 2nd at 21/1 vs similar competition at this distance two starts back. Last time out he made an early move into a hot pace going 1 1/8 mile and rightfully tired down the stretch. Shortening back to 1 1/16 mile today and with a better trip, he fits with this group. He’s a massive overlay at double digit odds.

Race 5: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 6250n3L

#8 Warlord Cruzan (15/1) – This horse has been up against it going shorter on the Gulfstream synthetic vs tougher in his last few starts. He’s tried to rally wide, but did not have the early speed to work out a favorable trip. Now dropping in class and going a longer distance, his chances will improve being closer to the pace. His synthetic speed figured fit in with this week field and now he switches to dirt for the first time. If he likes the dirt, he has major upside at a monster price.

Race 7: 1½ Mile. (Turf) OC 35000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Utah Beach (8/1) – This gelding has improved with each career start and ran a solid 2nd on synthetic off the bench last time. Now strong connections switch him back to turf, where he ran 3 seconds in Kentucky last year. 2nd off the layoff with a good inside draw on potentially his best surface, Utah Beach should run a big race.

Well, the Conductor learned his lesson. Never start off hot on a Gulfstream Wednesday because then you’ll get your ass kicked the rest of the week. Please pony gods, be kind to us on Sunday, it is the lord’s day. Skip.

Race 5: 7½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 89k

#6 Curlin’s Girl (9/2) – This filly just missed breaking her maiden on turf and dirt in her first two starts. The Conductor was more impressed with her turf race on debut, where she closed well into a slow pace. After a dud on dirt last time, she now returns to the lawn after a bit of a break. She has the most upside in the field. Dutrow hasn’t found his footing yet at this Gulfstream meet, but it’s only a matter of time.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (All-Weather) OClm 20000

#7 Spirit Animal (9/5) – This old gelding nails. No matter the distance or surface he likes to get his nose down in front. Since moving into the Martin Drexler barn, he has 5 wins and 3 seconds in 8 races. He beat common rivals who will take money again in here last time. The Conductor thinks he’s a solid single.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Clm 35000n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Hendrickson (12/1) – This gelding takes a big drop in class to the claiming ranks today. He ran better than it looks last time going 1 1/8 mile. He made a nice middle move while he was hung wide on the turn and rightfully tired late. Now shipping to Gulfstream, he gets a nice rail draw in a wide open race. The shorter distance will benefit him and he can upset this weak field.

1 for 3 Friday at Gulfstream with the winner being bet down to even money isn’t going to cut it. Finally, we’ve made it to weekend racing with full fields. We have a great gambling card Saturday with ample opportunities in front of us. Hopefully the weather cooperates. Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 25000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Boston Rose (4/1) – This filly pressed a wicked pace going 1 1/16 mile off a long layoff last time. She ran admirably and rightfully tired down the stretch in a race that collapsed. Now making her 2nd start in the US and shortening in distance, she should run even better. With a step forward she will handle this field.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 62500b

#6 Batucada (20/1) – #4 Papilio (5/2) lays over this field talent wise. If she fires off the bench, she’ll win this race. However, if she falters, this race is wide open and the Conductor likes a bomb to run well in here. Batucada moved to the Gulfstream turf last time and had absolutely no chance after a rough start. She was well back behind a tepid pace and still ran a very strong late pace figure making up ground the entire way. She was moved into the Saffie Joseph barn after that race and has posted a nice work over the turf since. In new hands and with the added distance, the Conductor sees her hitting the board at a juicy number.

Race 11: 6 Furlongs. GP Sprint Stakes

#8 Todo Fino (12/1) – The Conductor likes two prices in the feature on the card. This old boy had a terrible trip in the slop last time going 5 furlongs. You can ignore that effort, he’s posted two fast works at Gulfstream since and he’s ready to fire. He has an early pace edge over this field and when Todo Fino gets the lead, he doesn’t give it up. In 20 career starts, he has 12 wins, 0, seconds and only one 3rd. If you’re not first your last. Skip.

#10 Dean Delivers (5/1) – This gelding is coming off a bit of a break, but is working well and the Conductor likes that he’s shortening back to 6 furlongs. He does his best running at Gulfstream and looks to get a perfect trip in this race sitting right outside Todo. The Conductor has to include him the way he sees this race unfolding.

Goose egg Thursday at Gulfstream. We left the track off the hook after a strong Wednesday and now we must make up for it. Only winners today, losers not allowed Skip.

Race 2: 7½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 89k

#8 Lady Astoria (5/1) – This filly ran an impressive 2nd switching to the turf off the bench last time. She missed the break then chased the pace 3-wide and uncovered around both turns. Hopefully she’s overlooked by the public because she was 20/1 last time, but she was bred to move forward on the turf. The Conductor will trust his eyes and bet this filly in her second start off a layoff if she’s 4/1 or better.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (All-Weather) Clm 12500b

#3 Etnico (5/2) – This colt won easy last time off the bench going 5 furlongs over this Gulfstream synthetic surface. He had outside pressure the entire turn and opened up like he was all alone. There is no horse in this field that can even pressure him early and the Conductor can’t see how he doesn’t go gate to wire. He may be hammered at the windows and be too short of a price, but if he is 2-1 or better that seems more than fair. Hopefully some of the other class droppers in here take money.

Race 6: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 89k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Perilous (4/1) – This is another filly who took a big step forward in her first turf start last time. She showed good speed out of the gate, but was shut off along rail and had to check sharply. Perilous then settled nicely and rallied for 2nd behind a gate to wire winner. She was best in that race and 3/1 or better would be delicious vs this field. Trainer Jose D’Angelo is also a ridiculous 34% with a +$1.09 ROI with 74 entries making their 2nd start with Lasix.

We had a 14/1 photo 2nd, a 6/1 gullet shot winner by open lengths, and a 6/5 winner Wednesday at Gulfstream. That’s good clean Conductor capping to start the week. He doesn’t like the card as much Thursday, but he’s found two races where he can fade the favorites. Let’s keep pounding. Skip.

Race 2: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 25000

#3 Kitten’s War (8/1) – The Conductor doesn’t like the runners with experience in this maiden claimer. He’ll wager one of the first time starters pops at a price. This filly is bred for the turf, working well, and this is George Weaver’s specialty. He’s 15% with a +$1.47 ROI with 79 1st time turf starters this year.

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Charmeine (15/1) – There is plenty to like with this bomb as well. With only a 15k purchase price, she’s bred for the lawn and a debut at this level makes sense. Trainer Daniel Damen has a small barn with only 13 starters this year. He’s 0/3 with first time turf starters, but 2/3 have hit the board at big prices. With Castellano taking the mount for this small outfit, the Conductor can smell that Charmeine is live.

Race 7: 5 Furlongs. (All-Weather) F.S.OC 20000n1x

#1 Avatal Hero (5/1) – This filly loves sprinting over this Gulfstream synthetic course. She has improved in her last 3 races since returning to this surface, including a nice win last time. She went from last to 1st to win easy in an otherwise merry go round race. She’s stepping up in class today, but is in good form and this is a weak group for this level.

#3 Lovin Makes Cents (7/2) – This mare took a step forward 1st off the claim last time. She broke slow and put in a big run for 2nd behind a gate to wire winner. She has run two 2nds and a 3rd in her last three tries at this level and that was for a 4% barn. In a much better hands now, there is room for improvement in her second start off the claim.

Cryptonym missed the break again Sunday at Gulfstream and still ran 3rd at 27/1 behind Silent and Violent. The Conductor still hasn’t forgiven the pony gods for missing that monster exacta even two days later. Alas, it’s a new racing week and we move forward. Let’s get off to a hot start. Skip.

Race 2: 5 Furlongs. (All-Weather) S.OC 20000n1x

#3 Devils Only Friend (8/1) – This gelding has improved with each start in the Molly Ferris barn. He showed real grit last time on turf vs tougher at Tampa after a rough beginning. He was bumped on both sides early, made a nice early move and never quit while in tight along the rail. Now he ships back to the Gulfstream synthetic to take on state breds and is ready to run his best. The Devil is a friend of the Ductor’s.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (All-Weather) Clm 8000n3L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Swaggish (8/1) – This gelding dropped to this level at Gulfstream sprinting last time and ran a solid 3rd with a poor trip. He was bumped at the start and floated wide the entire turn. He was claimed out of that race and the new barn now stretches him out to a route for the first time. There is absolutely no other early speed in this evenly matched group and Swaggish can dictate this race on the front end. 5/1 or better is tasty for the Conductor.

Race 7: 5 Furlongs. (All-Weather) F.OClm 16000

#5 On the Dot (6/1) – This filly broke like a rocket last time, but bore out and it took her a few steps to gather herself and get into stride. She still cruised with ease going 5 1/2 furlongs that day and now moves into the Saffie Joseph barn. She’s well spotted here taking on winners for the first time and is another horse with an early pace edge. Her last race is fast enough to beat this group and she should take a step forward here. 7/2 or better would be nice.

The Conductor felt good as they entered the stretch Saturday at Gulfstream, but his horses lacked the finish required. That’s because you passengers aren’t shoveling hard enough. Get your back into it and work harder. The train needs more coal. Skip.

Race 7: 1 Mile. F.Mdn 89k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Forseen (10/1) – This filly’s best race came over a sloppy track, which she’ll get again today. That race was bas back in October, where she ran a huge late pace figure. She’s working well off the bench and and now gets Lasix for the first time. She’s well bred and should step forward with natural development now as a 3-year-old. If she improves at all from that prior sloppy track effort, she’ll be tough to beat.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 25000n1x

#1 Knox (15/1) – This colt ran a good 2nd vs similar last at Gulfstream closing into a slow pace. That race was over a good surface and he runs her best when it’s wet. He won’t be good enough to win if one of the favorites fire their best shot, but he’ll run his race and certainly hit the board at a big number.

Race 10: 1 Mile. All-Weather MC 25000

#8 Silent and Violent (2/1) – With the race taken off the turf, this colt looks like a standout after a wide trip vs tougher last time. He won’t be an value on his own, but the Conductor has a bomb we can pair him with to make this exacta pay in the finale.

#10 Cryptonum (30/1) – This gelding ran a good 2nd sprinting over this surface after a terrible start last time. Now they stretch him back out in distance and he has early speed. Without much other pace in the race, he can clear from the outside and work out a favorable trip. He’s stepping up in class, but this is a weak field and he has upside. With a clean break Cryptonum will take a big step forward here.

An easy 4/5 winner Friday at Gulfstream, but the two prices never threatened. A big day is coming, the Conductor can feel it in his plumbs. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 50000b

#4 Read On (6/1) – This colt ran the fastest last race in the field and will still likely be ignored by the public. That’s because that race was vs weaker over synthetic. However, his past turf form fits with this group and he has a tactical advantage here. There is absolutely no early speed in this field. Read On broke his maiden going gate to wire at this distance over this Gulfstream turf course and he can do it again today. He’ll be setting slow fractions on the lead and can steal it on the front end.

Race 9: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 25000n1x

#2 Queen Karima (7/2) – This filly showed real talent starting her career sprinting this -furlong distance at Gulfstream. She went off form after shipping up to Monmouth, but she’s had a 6-month break since. She’s working well for a barn that can win off the layoff and has an early pace edge over this field. Her speed is extra dangerous going this short.

Race 12: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OClm 35000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 No Vella (20/1) – Can we go 3/3 with frontrunners Saturday at Gulfstream? The Conductor will be betting we can. This mare’s past turf figures certainly fit with this group, and she’s 5/13 at the distance. The layoff is obviously a concern, but we’ll be more than compensated with her price. They will be forced to use her early speed from the rail and she looks to get an ideal trip. She’ll be loping along setting slow fractions and the other jockeys will discount her and wait too long. That will be their demise and the Conductor’s coal haul.

The Conductor saw the ball well Thursday. A 5/2 winner, a 20/1 shot who lost a photo, and 4/1 2nd is a good sign of things to come. While it could have been a banner day, we will focus on the positives #matureductor. Gulfstream better protect its neck. Skip.

Race 2: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 89k

#5 Definite Diva (8/5) – This filly was stuck on the rail vs the boys last time at Gulfstream and never got out. She galloped out in front of the pack and showed that she was itching for room to run. She ran very well in her debut as too, after being slammed at the start. The Conductor doesn’t typically talk up chalk, but he can see her being a lukewarm 2/1 favorite since she has yet to run fast speed figures. If that is the case, the Conductor will hammer this filly. He sees her obliterating this field with a clean trip. Definite Diva has talent.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 25000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Lady Monique (15/1) – This filly didn’t have the early speed to have and chance sprinting on the synthetic last time. She finished well down the stretch and looks poised to stretch out in distance. This move is Trainer Guadalupe Preciado’s specialty. He’s 27% with a +$2.12 ROI this year with first time routers. Exiting that 5-furlong sprint, she’ll be up close to a moderate pace and can light up the tote at a big number.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 89k

#7 Celebrity Ro (6/1) – This filly was well bet on debut at Gulfstream for the Bryan Lynch barn. She had no chance that day after a poor start. She was well back in a merry go round race with a slow pace up front. The Conductor likes that Jose Ortiz stays aboard as well. She’ll take a big step forward after all the adversity she faced last time. 5/1 or better is certainly worth a bet.