April 2021 - The Conductor's Scroll

Kentucky Derby Breakdown

on April 30, 2021April 20, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Horses racing at the Kentucky Derby with spectators in the grandstands at Churchill Downs.

It’s officially the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Skip.

Race 12: 1 1/4 G1 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve

*#15 Rock Your World (5/1) – His Santa Anita Derby was the most impressive prep for the Ductor. Watching all of his races, this colt really finishes strong and gallops out massive. He doesn’t need the lead and the Conductor thinks he’s the most talented runner in the field.

*#12 Helium (50/1) – This is the bomb the Conductor likes most in here and his key in the superfecta. Please watch his Tampa Bay Derby win. Was it the toughest field? No, but he had no business winning that race with that trip. He’s lightly raced, has room to step forward and has proven he can handle adversity where all these others haven’t. All the other prep winners have gotten favorable trips.

Other Win Contenders:

#8 Medina Spirit (15/1) – He never looked comfortable in the Santa Anita Derby grinding away in the 3 path. He never quit to get 2nd and the Conductor thinks Baffert is going to send him to the front early, where he’s runs his best.

#9 Hot Rod Charlie (8/1) – He was very game in his win in the Louisiana Derby and he has a solid foundation from last year. He has the talent to step forward and win his race.

#14 Essential Quality (2/1) – He’s tough to knock, but the Conductor will only be using him in 2nd and 3rd. He’ll be the heavy favorite, but he hasn’t improved much from last year. He’ll run his race.

#1 Known Agenda (6/1) – He’s turned into a new animal with blinkers, but the Conductor sees him as an underlay here. He got a favorable trip in a weak Florida Derby and will be over bet. The Conductor won’t use him on top.

Trifecta/Superfecta Prices to include:

#4 Keepmeinmind (50/1) – He hasn’t had any pace to run at in his two races this year. Taking the blinkers off an working well, he’s lit up the trifecta before.

*#6 O Besos (20/1) – He finished very well and galloped out past Hot Rod Charlie in the Louisiana Derby. He split horses on the inside and may have threatened to win with a cleaner trip. The Conductor will use him up to 2nd.

#13 Hidden Stash (50/1) – He was up against the pace scenario last time in the Blue Grass, but still finished well. He could clunk up for 4th at a huge number.

#16 King Fury (20/1) – His win last time may have been pace and slop aided, but it was still a strong effort and he flashed talent last year. Making his 2nd start as a 3 year old, he could take a big step forward here.

*#18 Super Stock (30/1) – He pulled a major upset in the Arkansas Derby and will be completely ignored at the windows. He got a perfect ride and trip that day, but he still beat very talented runners in Concert Tour and Cado River. He’ll get pace again to run at here and the Ductor will use him in some exactas.

Kentucky Derby Day Key Horses

on April 29, 2021April 20, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

A group of racehorses and jockeys competing in a horse race at the Kentucky Derby.

Friday and Saturday can’t come soon enough. It’s Kentucky Derby Time! Load up the caboose! Skip!

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.G1 Derby City Distaff Stakes

#4 Gamine (1/5) – As the lone speed, not a good betting race.

Race 8: 1 Mile. G2 Pat Day Mile Stakes

#8 Dream Shake (7/2) – He’s run well in the strongest Derby prep races. Cutting back to a mile, the Conductor will lean on him hard.

#4 Defunded (6/1) – He ran better than it looks behind Dream Shake last time with a patented wide trip by Mike Smith. Although the pace was quick, the race flow favored the frontrunners and he made a nice middle move. Blinkers off, Irad and Baffert, he could take a big step forward.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) G2 American Turf Stakes

#13 Scarlett Sky (4/1) – This race looks to set up for a closer and this colt has the best late kick of the bunch. His win in the Transylvania was very impressive.

#6 Royale Prince (12/1) – He continues to steadily progress and now steps up in class for the always dangerous Cox barn. He looks to get a good trip and the Conductor sees him running a top effort.

#10 Next (20/1) – After showing ability on dirt last fall, connections thrust him into the BC Juvenile where he still hasn’t finished. Making his first start as a 3 year old here, he’s working well for strong Ward and gets back to the surface he’s bred for. His lone turf start last year was a nice win sprinting and he’s proven he can get the distance on dirt. At a big price, the Conductor likes his upside.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. G1 Churchill Downs Stakes

#5 Tap It To Win (8/1) – This race is wide open in the Conductor’s opinion and doesn’t have a ton of early pace for a sprint. The Conductor liked his prep off the bench last time where he easily took care of business. He can but himself in a great position early and work out a nice trip.

#3 Basin (8/1) – Making his 2nd start as a 4 year old, this colt is back to sprinting where he’s best. He’s still progressing and has yet to run a bad race at 6 or 7 furlongs. He ran well on the Derby trail last year despite the distances being to far.

#8 Get the Prize (20/1) – Stepping up in class big time after winning at Keeneland, this horse will likely be the leader early. He’s on the improve and if he can get away with moderate fractions he’s dangerous.

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) G1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes

#5 Domestic Spending (9/2) – You can make a case for almost every runner in this group, but the Conductor will lean on this gelding. Making his first start at 4, he ran monster races last year closing into slow paces.

#4 Ivar (5/1) – His win in the Shadwell Turf Mile last year was the best performance this field has in the Conductor’s opinion. He should like the added distance as well.

Kentucky Derby Horse By Horse Breakdown will be up later today.

Kentucky Oaks Day Preview

on April 28, 2021April 19, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Chart displaying post positions and morning line odds for the Kentucky Oaks 2021 horse race.

Alright passengers, Derby week is here the Conductor has been locked up in his lair. He only sees the sun to stretch Skip’s little legs. Kentucky Oaks Day is done, Derby day will be done by tomorrow. Aim small, swing heavy and don’t let them up for air. Skip!

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. G2 Alysheba Stakes

#5 Roadster (9/2) – He ran very well setting a contested pace in the New Orleans Classic off a layoff and was only beaten 3/4 of a length. Working well back in the Baffert barn, he’s shortening in distance and is the lone speed here. The Conductor will take a shot against #6 Maxfield (4/5).

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Edgewood Stakes

#6 Aunt Pearl (4/5) – She looks like a cinch gate to wire. The Conductor liked #2 Gift List’s (7/2) effort chasing a lone leader last time in the Appalachian, but she’ll likely be 2nd choice and up against the same scenario in this one.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 La Troienne Stakes

#5 Paris Lights (8/1) – After Letruska’s performance in the Apple Blossom, #2 She’s a Daredevil (8/5) looks tough to beat. The most intriguing alternative for the Conductor is this hard knocking filly. She edged out Crystal ball at Saratoga in a slugfest last Summer and grinded out a victory sprinting off the bench last time. She’ll stretch back out to her preferred distance here and looks to get a perfect trip with first run on the frontrunners. The Conductor envisions a career best effort

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. F.G2 Eight Belles Stakes

*#6 Slumber Party (6/1) – If this filly is near this morning line the Conductor will unload the caboose. She destroyed Pass the Champagne in her debut and had a tough trip last time, stuck on the inside until it was too late. This race is loaded with speed and the Conductor likes the experience she gained off the pace last time. Irad looks to fit her perfectly as well.

#9 L’il Tootsie (8/1) – This girl made a nice move on the turn before flattening out last time and the turnback in distance is perfect for her. Her maiden breaker sprinting was very fast and she looks to get an ideal trip in this race. She’ll be likely double digit odds and a solid play underneath.

Race 10: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes

#1 Johnny Unleashed (10/1) – The Conductor really liked this gelding’s effort in the Shakertown as he dug in gamely on the inside. This is a much weaker field than the Skakertown and although this will be a heavily contested pace, he may be the speed of the speed. He’s improving and will be a nice price.

#9 Diamond Oops (5/1) – This gelding is the class of the field and is working well entering his first start of the year. He won this race off the bench last year and he looks to get a nice trip with a hot pace to run at.

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G1 Longines Kentucky Oaks

*Gullet Shot of the Day #14 Millefeuille (20/1) – This girl will be the Conductor’s key in the Kentucky Oaks, especially if this morning line is remotely accurate. She ran extremely well last time in the Gulfstream Oaks where she was wide into the 1st turn. After that she had an uncomfortable trip where she had to switch gears a few times. In a race without much pace, she has the speed to get in a good position from the outside post. Not to mention she’s working bullets entering the race. With a clean trip, she has every chance, especially to hit the board at hopefully a nice number.

Golden Hour Pick 4 Key Horses for Sunday, April 25

on April 25, 2021April 19, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Several racehorses competing on the track at Santa Anita Park with jockeys in colorful silks.

A chalk filled Saturday is never good for the Conductor. Back to California we go. Let’s hit the Golden Hour Pick 4. Skip.

Santa Anita Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) Singletary Stakes

#4 Sword Zorro (3/1) – He had no chance last time trying to close into a slow pace. Making his 2nd start off the bench vs a weak stakes field, the Conductor will single him.

Santa Anita Race 10: 5½ Furlongs. F.Clm 16000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Commas Save Lives (12/1) – Taking a big drop in class and switching back to dirt where she’s won, this filly will appreciate the shorter distance. She pressed a wicked pace last time and did well to split the field. This group is miles weaker than she’s been facing.

Golden Gate Race 10: 1 Mile. OC 62500n2x

#5 Exclusive Speaker (30/1) – The Conductor can see anything happening in this race and he finds this gelding intriguing. He’s steadily progressing and stretching out to a route for the first time. If he likes the added distance, he can hit the board and light up the trifecta at a monster number.

Golden Gate Race 11: 1 Mile. (Turf) S.Silky Sullivan Stakes

#12 Big Talker (5/1) – The Conductor likes this gelding quite a bit to end the Golden Hour Pick 4. He’s the only proven turf router in the group that is also a closer. He looks to get a perfect setup here with a hot, contested pace up front.

Belmont Park: Key Horses for Saturday, April 24

on April 24, 2021April 19, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Horses and jockeys racing at Belmont Park, showcasing the excitement of a horse race with colorful silks and starting gates.

Rough one at Santa Anita Friday. But, everyone knows Saturday racing is the only one that counts anyway. First solid card of the meet at Belmont today. Let’s Ride.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Alw 80000n1x

#7 Pandamom (3/1) – Making her first start as a 4 year old, the Conductor sees her as a standout in here. Her turf races have been consistently better than this group and the Conductor is against the favorite #4 English Breeze (5/2). She hasn’t run well in two years, how could you bet her at a short price?

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 16000

#9 Ekhtibaar (20/1) – The Conductor sees a scenario where this old man is alone on the lead and could get brave down the stretch. However, the Conductor is looking at #1 Cheif Know it All (10/1) and #7 Allured (12/1) as interesting prices as well.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 90k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Welshman (20/1) – This gelding is bred to go long on the grass and is working bullets entering today. That 58 and change on the turf really catches his eye.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. OC 100000n3x

#7 Wicked Trick (6/1) – Drawn well to the outside, this gelding looks to get a perfect stalking trip and will be a solid price in a competitive field. His A race gives him every chance.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) Elusive Quality Stakes

#2 Proven Strategies (10/1) – He’s been going too far in his last two starts. Now he gets the cutback in distance he needs today. He’s the lone speed in this race. The Conductor can see the Belmont jocks ignoring him until its too late.

Santa Anita Park: Key Horses for Friday, April 23

on April 23, 2021April 19, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Horses racing out of the starting gate at Santa Anita Park with mountains in the background.

No dice yesterday for the Conductor, Keeneland has been very fickle for him. Back to Santa Anita we go, Skip.

Race 3: 6½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.OC 50000n1x

#8 Michalska (7/2) – Cutting back to a sprint after making an early move into a quick pace last time, this filly looks like the winner. She gets a rider upgrade as well.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 50000s

#3 Storm the Bastille (3/1) – He just missed vs tougher two back at Santa Anita and was stuck behind a slow pace last time. He looks to get a much better setup today with pace to run at.

Race 7: 6½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.Alw 63000n1x

#7 First Prez (10/1) – The Conductor likes both O’neil runners in here. 1st time back in the barn today, this gelding ran well last time despite breaking thru the gate before the race. His win on debut shows he has talent.

#8 Hammering Lemon (5/1) – Cutting back to a sprint after pressing a hot pace going a mile last time, he’s tough not to like.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 50000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Agata (8/1) – Trying dirt at Santa Anita last time, she stumbled at the break and lost all chance. Switching back to the turf today, her races fit with this group and she’ll be facing claimers for the first time.

Keeneland and Oaklawn Park: Apple Blossom Day Key Horses

on April 17, 2021April 19, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Two racehorses with jockeys in racing gear, one horse is chestnut and the other is a lighter color with a white marking.

A Girl named Patsy ran 2nd at 19/1 yesterday, hopefully you passengers were able to make a few bucks. Another big Saturday of racing ahead with the race of the year to date. In the Apple Blossom, the Conductor will be having wine and swiss tonight. Let’s Ride.

Keeneland

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 83000n2x

#8 Violenza (10/1) – Drawn well to the outside today, this filly ran a very strong 2nd off the layoff last time. She has a very solid 3-year-old foundation and with natural maturity she’s right there with this group. 5 1/2 furlongs is perfect for her.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 80000n3x

#1 Final Jeapardy (8/1) – His last two races on a fast dirt track in the Morey barn are very fast on figures. The favorites in here have question marks and he’s working well. His late pace figures suggest the added distance will help his chances.

Race 9: 1½ Mile. (Turf) G2 Elkhorn Stakes

#7 North Dakota (10/1) – He had no chance last time trying to rally into a slow pace. He beat the favorite in here two back and should get a more favorable trip today with a quicker pace up front. The Conductor would love anything over 6/1.

Oaklawn Park

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Oaklawn H.

#3 Fearless (7/2) – The Conductor liked to see that he can stay closer to the pace and still finish like he did last time. He’s working up a storm and has always possessed major talent. He will not stop, he has some of the strongest late pace figures you’ll see on dirt.

Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Apple Blossom H.

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Swiss Skydiver (2/1) – Now this is the type of race that puts asses in seats. The two big girls square off and there is a lot of steam behind the 3rd choice, #3 Letruska (4/1), who will be on the early lead. The Conductor doesn’t see Swiss Skydiver letting her get too far away early and thinks Albarado will make the first move on the far turn. #6 Monomoy Girl (1/1) will then follow closely and hopefully we get a stretch duel for the ages. When Swiss Skydiver turned away Authentic in the stretch of the Preakness, his hair stood up. He thinks this girl is the best horse in training and Monomoy Girl won’t be able go by. He’ll be singling the #2. Skip.

Keeneland: Key Horses for Friday, April 16

on April 16, 2021April 19, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Crowd watching horse racing at Keeneland with horses on the track.

Bye Bye Melvin got nailed in the final strides and Ballymore Star stunk Thursday. The Conductor really likes his prices today at Keeneland. Let’s head into the weekend with a full caboose. Skip

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 87000b

#4 Hay Dakota (8/1) – He ran sneaky well last time in a merry go round race off a break. Now stretching out for Maker, he’s working well and looks to get a favorable trip with a hot pace to run at.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 81000n1x

#1 Girl Named Patsy (12/1) – This girl won very nicely last time off the layoff and is now switching back to turf. She’s in good form while many of the contenders in here are coming in off breaks. She should be able to but herself in a good position early and work out a favorable trip. For a turf sprint this race does not have much early pace.

#6 Senora Roma (8/1) – Trying turf for the first time off the bench, she has a major early pace advantage over this field. If she takes to the grass, she can wire the field.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile.G3 Baird Doubledogdare Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Eres Tu (4/1) – This mare has been steadily progressing since last fall and ran huge off the layoff last time making an early move into a hot pace. She’ll be more fit today and will be the likely 4th betting choice in a competitive field.

Oaklawn Park: Arkansas Derby Day Key Horses

on April 10, 2021April 13, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Horses racing towards the finish line at Oaklawn Park with a large finish sign in view.

It’s Arkansas Derby day passengers, Let’s Ride.

Race 9: 1 Mile. Oaklawn Mile Stakes

#4 Rushie (3/1) – Working well off the layoff, he looks to get a perfect stalking trip in a race loaded with speed.

#1 Long Range Toddy (20/1) – 2nd off the bench today, he has talent and another one that will be aided by the race flow. He can spice up the exotics.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. OC 75000n1x

*Gullet Shot of he Day #5 Upstriker (8/1) – This colt showed talent in his debut and didn’t run poorly being thrust into the Breeders’ Cup Futurity last fall. Working well and making his first start as a 3 year old, he can take a major jump forward.

Race 11: 6 Furlongs. G3 Count Fleet Sprint H.

#4 Strike Power (5/1) – This horse finished extremely well after being headed on the turn last time. He has the back class and will get the jump on the favorites who are closers.

Race 12: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Arkansas Derby

#2 Caddo River (7/2) – Concert Tour will be 1/2 in this spot, so we may be able to get around 4/1 on this colt. Last time he went off favored vs Concert Tour. In that race, he was rank early and wasted energy fighting the rider while they tried to rate him. The Conductor will play him as a likely overlay.

Race 13: 1 1/16 Mile. Mdn 93k

#1 Continental Coins (6/1) – Stretching out after two sprints, he looks perfect for a stretch out. He’s working well, has strong breeding and Calhoun is 18% with a +$0.06 ROI 1st time routing.

Keeneland: Key Horses For Friday, April 9

on April 9, 2021April 13, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Horses with jockeys walking in a line at Keeneland Racecourse during an event.

The Conductor will not concede and start giving you passengers chalk. Go to any other site for that, the prices at Keeneland will come. Makers Mark Friday, always a treat. Let’s Ride.

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Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.TVG Limestone Turf Sprint Stakes

#7 Tobys Heart (6/1) – Campanelle (8/5) looks very tough in here, but there are some other very talented runners. The distance proved too much for this girl last time off the layoff, but now she’s cutting back to a sprint. Both her wins at 5 1/2 furlongs have been very impressive.

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. Alw 81000n1x P

#4 My Man Flintstone (10/1) – He may not win, but he’s a good trifecta key at a price. 2nd off the bench today, his numbers fit with this group and he looks to get a favorable trip tracking the leaders.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 Maker’s Mark Mile Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Darain (8/1) – This colt had a brutal trip last time at Keeneland in his allowance race and still won for fun. It doesn’t matter who he beat, the amount of The Conductor likes that Cox has given him two races to get acclimated from across the pond before giving him the acid test.