Month: April 2024

0/3 Thursday at Keeneland wasn’t ideal. Now it’s closing day today for great meet that went by too quick. We have the Derby next week and the train will be headed back to New York for the foreseeable future. Let’s make a score today and head out in style. Skip.

Race 5: 1 3/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Ode to Balius (15/1) – This colt’s debut on turf was solid and he’s been steadily progressing since. He ran a sneaky strong race last time in a stakes race on synthetic, closing into a slow pace and running a strong late pace figure. The Conductor likes the added distance for him today, in a a race filled with horses with distance question marks. Making his 3rd start off the layoff and adding blinkers and Lasix for the first time here, Ode to Balius has upside. The Conductor thinks he’s worth a bet at a big price.

Race 8: 1½ Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Bewitch Stakes

#1 Chop Chop (15/1) – The scratch of War Like Goddess opens this race up quite a bit. Unfortunately, there were multiple scratches and the field size has dwindled. However, Chop Chop should still be north of 5/1 and intrigues the Conductor in a field without any monsters. He’s in good form running on synthetic and his form is muddied by all his dirt races. He’s bred for the turf and has 2 wins and a 3rd in his 3 career starts on the lawn. Chop Chop finally gets back to the turf today and gets a nice rail post for the always hot Brad Cox barn. He is dangerous.

Race 10: 1 3/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 110000n1x

#8 Catch a Wave (7/2) – This colt showed a serious finish to win his debut at Tampa last time. He was mid-pack behind a dreadfully slow pace and ran down the favorite who looked like he was home free deep in the stretch. Nobody in this Keeneland field has a late pace figure even close to what he showed last race. 5/2 or better would be fair on this colt and he should be the favorite in here, not the 2nd choice.

Silver Knott saves the day at 5/1 Saturday at Keeneland and the money train continues. The Conductor didn’t have any strong opinions the last two cards and no passenger could solve the puzzle without him. We have a good old fashioned double pick 6 carryover today on our plates. Hopefully the Conductor can steer us us in the right direction and we can share the pot. Let’s Ride.

Keeneland Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 20000n2L

#4 Riviere (7/2) – Nothing like a weak, wide open claiming race to start the pick 6 sequence. You could make a case for many in this group, but the Conductor will grab his nuts and single this filly to start. She has back class and is exiting two good efforts over the synthetic at Turfway. Most importantly, she was claimed out of her last race and moved into the Martin Rouck barn. He has a small outfit, but is 4/14 on the year with a juicy +$1.18 ROI. The Conductor sees this filly firing today and she has races to run back to that will beat this field.

Race 5: 1½ Mile. (Turf) Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Miracle On Ice (30/1) – This gelding is exiting a solid effort on the synthetic, where he ran a big late pace figure closing into a slow pace. While it took him a while to break his maiden, his best race came over this Keeneland turf course last year going 1 3/16 mile. He ran another enormous late pace figure that day and the Conductor thinks he’ll thrive with the added distance here. He will be mowing late and has a chance to light up the tote. Do you believe in miracles? Skip.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 100k

#1 Day Dawning (9/2) – This is a brutal race to end the sequence. There are many 1st time starters with bullet works for quality barns. The Conductor likes this filly best of the bunch. She was 450k and her work tab is strong for a Jonathon Thomas barn that wins at a 19% clip with 1st time starters. Also, Johnny V takes the mount for an outfit he never rides for. All that and the golden Keeneland rail make Day Dawning the one the Conductor wants in the finale.

Boom. Evan Harlan gets up at 22/1 Friday at Keeneland and just like that the train is flush with coal. Thank god the Conductor and real turf racing has returned this spring. Us passengers aren’t worthy. Skip.

Race 5: 1 1/8 Mile. Clm 32000

#1 Saqeel (10/1) – This is a wide open claiming race and the Conductor likes this gelding breaking from the Keeneland golden rail. First off the claim for Maker last time, she ran well off the bench. She tracked a slow pace and kept grinding in the stretch. Now she drops in class and stretches out to her best distance. She also has an early pace edge over this group. All signs point to Saqeel firing her one of her top efforts, which would be good enough to win here.

Race 7: *7 Furlongs. F.Mdn 100k

#3 Soundbite (4/1) – None of the other runners in here have run close to par for this level. Of the others, the Conductor thinks #1 Illusion (6/1) and #7 Halstyn Rose (8/1) could improve the most. However, Soundbite is a well bred 1st time starter with a solid work tab for Brad Cox. On a beautiful Keeneland Saturday, she’ll be ready to role. The Conductor will lean on this filly quite a bit while many others will be spreading this race. It smells like she wins for fun.

Race 8: 1½ Mile. (Turf) G2 Elkhorn Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #11 Silver Knott  (8/1) – The Appleby favorite #4 Bold Act (3/2) looks like a standout in here. He won at this distance last year at Keeneland in impressive fashion. However, the Conductor is intrigued by his stable mate as the lone potential upsetter. He is clearly entered as a rabbit to ensure there is a fair early pace set here. There is no other speed and Prat will give him a good ride alone on the front end. It doesn’t look like he can go his far on paper, but with a slow pace he has plenty of back class to get brave. The worst case is Bold Act runs him down late. The Conductor thinks an Appleby exacta is immanent and gives Silver Knott a chance to pull the upset.

The bombs came home Thursday at Keeneland. The only problem was the Conductor didn’t sniff them out. There was a little rain last night, but thankfully not enough to take the races off the lawn. We need some coal before the weekend. Time for a big day. Skip.

Keeneland Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 120000n2x

#5 Judge Davis (8/1) – The Conductor likes two prices in this race starting with this gelding. He ran evenly sprinting at this level last time in a merry go round race. Now he’ll try going two turns for the first time in his 3rd start off a layoff. He should be up close to a moderate pace an the Conductor is confident he’ll get a favorable trip under Prat. Judge Davis is also the only runner in the field with a win over the Keeneland turf.

#7 Evan Harlan (15/1) – This gelding showed talent early in his career and is rounding back into form. He won nicely switching back to the turf two starts ago and was going to win last time too. He was weaving through horses in the stretch until the rail closed on him and Morales had to take him up sharply. He’ll be a juicy price and has a much bigger shot than the form shows.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 120000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Loyal Company (10/1) – This gelding has run races above par for this level on dirt. They switched him to the turf for the first time last race and the Conductor was impressed. He was absolutely flying late closing into a slow pace and galloped out well ahead of the pack. He may like the turf more than dirt and the Conductor is willing to find out at double digit odds. Above 6/1 is fair.

O/3 Wednesday at Keeneland is not what the Conductor ordered. It was a chalk fest anyway. The train moves forward and is ready to crush anything on its path today. Skip.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 130000b

#14 Shootoutthelights (4/1) – This race looked wide open until this filly drew in after scratches. She’s a rocket early and will have no problem clearing from the outside post. The Conductor liked that her form last year traveled outside of Kentucky, which Ward horses don’t always do. Ward runners have been firing per usual at this Keeneland meet and she looks a cut above this group.

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 40000

#2 Secret Rules (6/1) – This gelding ran well off the bench last time. He made up ground on the leaders late in the slop despite a poor start. He has plenty of early speed and with a clean break and rider upgrade to Velazquez, he looks to get a much more favorable trip today. The Conductor thinks he’s the most likely winner of the race and 7/2 or better is fair.

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

#4 Mambo Master (12/1) – The favorites look weak in this group and the Conductor thinks this race is ripe for a 1st time starter. Trainer William Cowans has by far the best numbers with 1st timers in the field. He’s 32% with a +$1.37 ROI with 63 runners this year. While he’s 0/7 with 1st time turfers, that is a small sample size. This filly’s breeding and work tab scream she’s ready to mow and everyone wants to get their picture taken at Keeneland. Let’s end the card in style.

The Conductor’s horses got bet down more than he liked Sunday at Keeneland. However, 2/3 with 5/2 and 7/2 winners was nice. Wednesday’s card is intriguing after scratches. Let’s get the racing week started off right. Skip.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.Alw 50000s

#6 Marmalade Skye (8/1) – This filly is exiting a dominant win over the synthetic and now switches to the dirt for the first time this year. She’s steadily progressing and the best of only two speed horses in this small field. With how kindly the Keeneland dirt has played for speed in sprints this meet, the Conductor thinks she is dangerous.

Race 7: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Pike Place (12/1) – This gelding’s turf routes fit with this group and he’s run sneaky well in his last two starts. Two back he ran a big late pace figure off the bench closing for 3rd into a slow pace. Last time he looked loaded entering the stretch and had to steady sharply when the horse he was following backed up abruptly. He still put in a run down the lane and the Conductor liked the grit he showed. He refused to let the runner with momentum directly to his outside to pass him late. The distance and Keeneland turf course are question marks, but the Conductor is willing to find out at a square price.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. MC 100000

#8 Olivier (5/2) – The Conductor will single this colt to end his pick 5. He’s been hammered at the windows in both starts vs tougher and ran better than it looks last time. He had a heinous trip pressing the pace while extremely wide going two turns. Cutting back in to one turn today for a quality barn, dropping in class and getting a rider upgrade to Prat, the Conductor is happy to lean on him.

Hayes Strike needed one more jump to beat his re-breaking stablemate Saturday at Keeneland. The Pony Gods punished the Conductor for his time away from the passengers. The Conductor will reluctantly allow it once, but no more. Winners only to end the weekend. It’s coal season. Skip.

Race 7: 1½ Mile. (Turf) Alw 120000n2x

#7 Utah Beach (8/1) – This gelding has yet to miss the exacta in his career at varying distances and surfaces. He won nicely in first start at this distance on turf last time, which is very difficult to do. Getting this marathon distance is the most important thing in this type of race and he’s one of only two runners in the field with a win going this far. 5/1 or better is an easy play for the Conductor.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 50000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Yo Daddy (6/1) – This colt ran a career best race two starts back in his first try routing on a fast dirt track. He closed well into a slow pace for 3rd and ran a huge late pace figure. He ran well enough in a stakes race over the slop last time and now drops in class and gets back to his preferred surface. The Conductor would love 4/1 or better on this colt.

Race 9:1½ Mile. (Turf) Alw 120000n2x

#8 Beuys (8/1) – This gelding is making just his 3rd start in the Maker barn and his 2nd start off the bench. He ran well last time going shorter despite expending energy early fighting the rider. He’s bred for the distance and Maker’s specialty is stretching turf horses out in distance. In addition, he was only beaten a nose in his last start over this Keeneland surface. With a rider upgrade to Saez today, Beuys should be relaxed early and ready to fire is best effort. Let’s end the weekend in style. Skip.

Alright passengers, we’re back after a month break. The Conductor was done with Gulfstream and waiting for some real turf racing to start. Then the rain came to Lexington and took his races off the lawn. However, spring has sprung and we finally have a beautiful Saturday at Keeneland. The opportunities are bountiful. Aim small, miss small, but really never miss at all. Skip.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 100000n3x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Hayes Strike (8/1) – This colt ran some solid races last year and showed signs of rounding into form last time. He closed for a solid 2nd behind a slow pace and should be ready to run his best making his 3rd start off the bench today. While the Keeneland dirt has been extremely speed favoring in sprints, routes have played fairly for closers. Hayes Strike has by far the best late pace figures in the field and should get a good setup with lots of speed horses in here. He’s the Conductor’s best bet of the day if he’s north of 6/1.

Race 9: 1 1/16  Mile. (Turf) F.G1 Jenny Wiley Stakes

#7 Surge Capacity (5/1) – This filly has shown freaky talent in her last two starts. In both, Rosario has been stuck on the rail in deep stretch she’s still mowed home after losing momentum. You don’t see very many fillies with a turn of foot like hers. She’s more than a square price at 5/1 and has the most upside in the field. The Appleby shipper and Rosario in the irons are the only two factors that could beat her today.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. G3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes

#2 The Wine Steward (5/2) – This would usually be a spot where the Conductor would be playing against a short price. He’s an NY bred making his first start as a 3-year-old off a long break. However, there aren’t any likeable alternatives. The Wine Steward should get a beautiful trip pressing a slow pace and lays over this field on numbers. The Conductor trusts Maker will have him ready.