Keeneland Thursday Picks — April 18, 2024 | Best Bets & Handicapping Analysis

Keeneland

O/3 Wednesday at Keeneland is not what the Conductor ordered. It was a chalk fest anyway. The train moves forward and is ready to crush anything on its path today. Skip.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 130000b

#14 Shootoutthelights (4/1) – This race looked wide open until this filly drew in after scratches. She’s a rocket early and will have no problem clearing from the outside post. The Conductor liked that her form last year traveled outside of Kentucky, which Ward horses don’t always do. Ward runners have been firing per usual at this Keeneland meet and she looks a cut above this group.

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 40000

#2 Secret Rules (6/1) – This gelding ran well off the bench last time. He made up ground on the leaders late in the slop despite a poor start. He has plenty of early speed and with a clean break and rider upgrade to Velazquez, he looks to get a much more favorable trip today. The Conductor thinks he’s the most likely winner of the race and 7/2 or better is fair.

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

#4 Mambo Master (12/1) – The favorites look weak in this group and the Conductor thinks this race is ripe for a 1st time starter. Trainer William Cowans has by far the best numbers with 1st timers in the field. He’s 32% with a +$1.37 ROI with 63 runners this year. While he’s 0/7 with 1st time turfers, that is a small sample size. This filly’s breeding and work tab scream she’s ready to mow and everyone wants to get their picture taken at Keeneland. Let’s end the card in style.

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