Month: April 2025

How the hell is it closing week at Keeneland already? Only three racing days left and we certainly need to make them count. The turf racing is great today. Let’s Ride.

Race 4: 1 3/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 120000n1x

#2 Coiled (10/1) – This colt won nicely in his first start as a 3-year-old this year at Turfway. He ran a strong late pace figure, which should translate well to stretching out on the turf. Add a nice inside draw and a red-hot Ben Curtis in the irons, and you’ve got a live 10/1 shot in a wide open race.

Race 6: 1 5/8 Mile (Turf). F.Alw.

#8 Cha Cha Chuka (20/1) – This is a tough ask against this salty field, but the Counductor will key around this filly at a big price. She consistently overcame poor trips this winter at Gulfstream, closing strongly against slow paces and frontrunner flows. Nobody is better than Maker in these distance turf races.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 110k

#1 Indy’s Halo (5/1) – This filly had a no chance trip two back at Gulfstream and then ran a big 2nd last time at Tampa. She was well back behind a tepid pace and showed a strong late kick. Now she draws the rail in her 3rd start off the layoff, and Victoria Oliver runners have been firing at Keeneland. 4/1 or better is fair on Indy’s Halo.

Clicquot got steamed down, but was a winner Thursday. We still aren’t connecting on the big prices. Mostly chalk came in, and that’s not the way the Conductor likes his Keeneland. Hopefully Friday is a bit more conducive to prices. Let’s Ride.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 140000b

#8 American Monarch (12/1) – This ridgling jogged around the track last time off a long layoff. That was a clear prep for this race and his workouts have improved since. His best turf races can beat this field and Mott wouldn’t ship him to Keeneland if he wasn’t live. Double digit odds is certainly a bet.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G3 Baird Doubledogdare Stakess

#1 Just F Y I (7/2) – How about a Mott/Alvarado double? #6 Candied (8/5) ran big in the Distaff, but this is her first start of the year and she’s up against the pace scenario here. Just F Y I has a race under her belt in 2025 and can control the early pace vs this group. She’s a more likely winner in the Conductor’s opinion at double the price.

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Jimmy Rules finishing 2nd at 24/1 was the only good opinion Wednesday. The Keeneland dirt is still a merry go round track where you need to be on, or up close to the pace. If you can’t beat them, join them. Skip.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 110k

#5 Les Is Best (12/1) – This filly has been steadily progressing at Turfway this winter and ran her strongest late pace figure last time. She returns to the lawn today, making her first start on turf as a 3-year-old. She’s bred to mow and the Conductor sees her running a career best effort today 2nd off a break. At double digit odds, she is a major overlay.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. F.Mdn 110k

#2 Clicquot (6/1) – This filly was hammered at the windows in her debut. She broke slow, rushed up and got caught in a pace duel before throwing in the towel. She’s working well entering today and has a major early pace edge over this field. Hopefully she stays above 7/2 and runs off the screen.

Race 7: 1½ Mile. (Turf) Alw 130000n2x

#11 Raptor’s (8/1) – This marathon turf race is devoid of any early speed, and this gelding will be alone on the lead. He’s 2/2 at the distance and had a no chance trip last time off a long layoff. He’s been gelded since, and the Conductor likes that Casse ships him to Keeneland and Jose Ortiz hops aboard. Raptor’s ready to roll. Gate to wire.

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Crap Sunday for the Conductor to end the weekend. At least we only had to wait two days to get back in the saddle. This Keeneland meet is going by too quickly. We need to pounce.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 20000

#1 Big Earn (9/2) – This filly showed improvement after switching into the Assmussen barn last time at Turfway. She seems to be rounding back into form after her long layoff and she gets a nice rail draw on this inside favoring dirt course. 7/2 or better works for the Conductor.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 32000

#5 Gilmore (9/2) – This gelding continues to change barns and moved forward for trainer John Ortiz last time. He ran a strong late pace figure closing behind a slow pace in a sprint. Now they stretch him back out to his best distance and he should be forwardly placed in a race without much early pace. Gilmore is a play over 3/1.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. Alw 120000n1x

#1 Jimmy Rules (6/1) – It’s tough to bet a closer on this Keeneland dirt, but the early pace in this race should heat up. Jimmy Rules is coming off a career best effort last time at Turfway, closing strong into a slow pace. He has only one career start on a fast dirt track and he’s become a much better animal since. His price should float up from this morning line for a low % barn, and he can win this race if he repeats his last effort. Jimmy Rules up the pine please.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 120000n1x

#8 Dala (8/1) – This filly won nicely after setting a quick pace last time on the synthetic. She’s bred to improve moving to the turf today, and this is a turf sprint without much other early speed. 8/1 seems like a very poor morning line, but 4/1 or better would be nice.

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And that’s why they call it a bail out race. Thankfully, Autumn Rythem saved the day at 5/1 Saturday in the finale. Let’s not wait until the final race to be right today. Let’s step on the gas early. Skip.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 110k

#12 Brushfire (10/1) – This colt set a scorching pace on synthetic last time and did well to hang on for 2nd. Now he tries turf for the first time and he should have no problem clearing to the lead in here. In a wide open race, the Conductor thinks he has a major chance to steal this race on the front end. Saez will do a better job of rationing his early speed.

#6 Big Ritz (15/1) – This first time starter is bred to mow and trainer Rusty Arnorld has a +$0.15 ROI this year debuting runners on turf. It’s a positive sign that Jose Ortiz hops aboard, and this field doesn’t have much proven quality. The Conductor can smell that Big Ritz is live.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.G3 Giant’s Causeway Stakes

#3 Lithe Spirit (10/1) – This filly is stepping up in class on a four race win streak. The Conductor liked the grit she showed last time in a fight to the wire. She switches back to turf today and looks to get an ideal rail pocket trip. If Saez can find a seam entering the stretch, Lithe Spirit is dangerous.

#9 Get Twisted (30/1) – This pace has a real chance to cook up early and that would give this mare a chance as the longest shot on the board. She showed talent winning her debut in a turf sprint way back in 2023 and has been lightly raced since. Get Twisted has been progressing with each start at Turfway this winter, and today looks like the spot she’ll run her best. Even if she comes running a little too late today, she can still hit the board at a big number.

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A 15/1 2nd by a nose and a solid 3rd at 12/1 with a troubled trip Thursday for the Conductor. Hopefully some of you passengers cashed some verticals. Let’s get the noses down in front today and head into the weekend in style. Skip.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 120000n1x

#8 Rare Art (8/1) – This race is loaded with early speed and the Conductor thinks this is the best closer of the bunch. He was bet to favoritism last time vs similar competition off the bench, and his poor performance can be forgiven. He was very rank while wide entering the 1st turn and would not settle for Johnny V. Now 2nd off the layoff, he switches back to Dylan Davis, who will drop back and save ground. With a quick pace up front, the Conductor expects Rare Art to mow them down in the stretch.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 Makers Mark Mile

#3 Trikari (8/1) – This colt was impressive last year, winning multiple graded stakes at different distances and over varying turf conditions. Most of the contenders in here want to be forwardly placed and Trikari looks to sit an ideal trip sitting right behind the speed. The layoff isn’t much of a concern at the price, and he has upside making his first start as a 3-year-old. The Conductor trusts Motion to have him ready for a Grade 1 at Keeneland.

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Protege got the job done at 7/2 Wednesday, but lets get on some of these bombs that are coming home. The Turfway shippers are running their eyeballs out on dirt and turf at huge prices. With stacked cards this weekend, it’s time to compile coal. Skip.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 40000n2L

#1 Indy Charges On (12/1) – This race is wide open and the Conductor likes this Turfway shipper at a price. He was on the inside close to a quick pace last time and won nicely. He is stepping up in class today, but is lightly raced and has upside making his first dirt start. He looks like he’ll get the exact same trip as his maiden victory, and he’ll be riding the Keeneland golden rail.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 130000n2x

#3 High Fashion Kate (14/1) – This filly will be making her first start on turf since switching into an improved barn. In her last start in a turf sprint, she lost by a nose at 7/1 vs similar competition. There is very little speed in here after scratches and she looks to get a favorable trip forwardly placed or on the lead. The Conductor is looking for High Fashion Kate to steal this race on the front end.

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Tough Bluegrass Tuesday for the Conductor. Time to cut Chancer McPatrick back in distance. The rail was golden on turf and dirt yesterday, so keep a watchful eye on that trend. Keeneland does typically have an inside bias. The good news is if you have a bad day. you have another Keeneland card every day this week. Keep pounding.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. Alw 30000s

#1 Protege (7/2) – This gelding beat a tougher group in his last fast dirt start. Since then he’s caught a sloppy track and then ran a solid 3rd on the synthetic. Now making his first start on dirt for a better barn, he should fire today.

#3 Bebedouro (12/1) – This gelding is stepping up in class after a nice win on synthetic last time. He’s run previous numbers on dirt that are competitive with this group and the Turfway shippers have been lighting up the tote early this meet. Bebedouro looks to get a favorable trip on a dirt track favoring inside speed.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 120000n1x

#1 Shopper’s Revenge (15/1) – This is a great betting race and the Conductor likes two prices exiting the same race. This gelding tried the turf for the first time last start and ran better than it looks with a nightmare trip. His breeding suggests he should improve on the lawn and the Conductor likes that Assmussen gives him another shot here. The rail draw and Irad in the saddle only help his cause.

#8 Sand Pipes (8/1) – This colt was favored in that last race with Shopper’s Revenge and didn’t have a fair chance. He got completely sawed off at the top of the stretch and still finished well for 4th. In a race that looks to have a quick pace up front, Sand Pipes will be flying late.

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