March 2023 - The Conductor's Scroll

Florida Derby Saturday Picks — April 1, 2023 | Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream Park

on March 31, 2023April 19, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A racehorse being led by handlers at Gulfstream Park, showcasing the horse's athletic build and racing gear.

The turf races were moved to Tapeta Thursday, so the Conductor had to sit on his hands. He needs Saturday to get here sooner so he can fire with both fists. The weather looks good for Friday, but the card stinks. The Conductor will turn his attention to the stakes racing this weekend This Florida Derby card looks like a gold mine. Skip.

Race 4: 1 Mile. OC 25000n1x

#1 Giant Game (9/2) – This colt showed talent last year and is now rounding back into form. He made an eye catching middle move last time and ran fast enough to win most races at this level. He broke slow last time, which is a concern, but he could run even better with a clean break 3rd off the layoff. The Conductor is happy to bet on a colt in form against a favorite, #9 Bright Future (2/1), who hasn’t run in more than 9 months.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 84k

#3 Good Value (6/1) – This filly was claimed from the Chad Brown barn after her debut at the MC 50000 level. She ran well enough that day to warrant the jump up in class on Florida Derby Day. She was finishing best despite the slow pace up front and she took a serious bump at the top of the stretch. Many filly’s would have quit after their momentum was halted like that, but she showed guts to re-rally. With a nice inside draw in an open race, she’s worth a bet at 5/1 or better.

Race 12: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks

#4 Affirmative Lady (10/1) – The favorites are luke-warm in this race and the Ductor can smell an upset. He likes this filly quite a bit in this spot. She’s proven she loves the distance and will be finishing best down the stretch. She got a slow speed figure last time because the race had a very slow early pace. Affirmative Lady ate kickback and was boxed in until the final furlong where she exploded. She looks primed for a career best race here.

Race 13: 1 Mile. (Turf) Appleton Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Fort Washington (4/1) – This race will have a wicked pace with many horses vying for the early lead. The Conductor is looking for a closer and this colt sticks out like a sore thumb. His return off the bench was solid vs a tougher group last time. He closed into a slow pace for a good 3rd an galloped out miles in front of the rest. 2nd off the layoff with a favorable setup, he’ll get to wire in time today.

Race 14: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Curlin Florida Derby

#11 Forte (4/5) – Nothing creative for the Conductor in the finale. He’s been the only standout thus far on the Kentucky Derby trail. He couldn’t have won the Fountain of Youth any easier and this field looks to be at his mercy.

Gulfstream Park Thursday Picks — March 30, 2023 | Florida Derby Week Contenders

on March 30, 2023April 19, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 2 Comments

A dynamic horse racing scene featuring multiple horses and jockeys competing at the Pegasus World Cup event, showcasing speed and excitement.

0-2 and a scratch at Gulfstream Wednesday was not the way the Ductor wanted to start the racing week. After a great weekend, we cannot let the momentum slip. Us passengers are counting on you Mr. Ductor, please rebound for us quickly. Thursday’s bombs could make up for it and much, much more. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 7½ Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 84k

#8 El Oro (20/1) – #5 Dark Vecor (8/5) is clearly the one to beat, but he was beaten by 8 lengths last time at Gulfstream. At a short price, the Conductor is willing to bet against him. That completely opens up this race and El Oro is the bomb the Ductor likes most. Off a 3+month break he’s working well on the turf and will get to race on it for the first time. He has the best turf breeding of the group and could take a big step forward. He can provide value to the passengers’ trifectas.

Race 7: 1½ Mile. (Turf) OC 35000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Meyer (12/1) – This is a terrible morning line after running what the Conductor would argue was a better race than #8 Patou Road (7/2) did last time. He’ll still be a higher price and the Ductor will take 6/1 or better. Meyer has run two solid races despite bad trips in his last two starts. He was hung wide from the 12 post last time and still closed well into a slow pace. He has an outside post again today, but gets a major rider upgrade to Gaffalione. Tyler will give him a much better chance to show what he’s capable of.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 35000

#4 Moontap (6/1) – This is a forgettable field and looks ripe for a 1st time starter. The Ductor likes this filly’s turf breeding and her work tab for trainer Kelsey Danner. Kelsey is 12% with a +$0.84 ROI with 1st time starters on the turf this year. Not to mention Irad takes the mount for a barn he rarely rides for. He’s 2/3 for this barn recently.

Gulfstream Park Wednesday Picks — March 29, 2023 | Florida Derby Week Best Bets

on March 28, 2023April 19, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A thoroughbred horse racing at Gulfstream Park, showcasing speed and athleticism with a jockey in colorful silks during a race.

Be Here Now got there in time at 10/1 Sunday. Add in a little Fair Grounds pick 5 and train is in gear. It’s Florida Derby week at Gulfstream and the Conductor is already salivating over Saturday’s card. However, there is still work to be done before then. We need to collect during the week an there is plenty of Keeneland and NYRA prep to be done. Keep shoveling, Skip.

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Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 35000n2L

#2 Musical Romance (8/1) – This filly was favored vs tougher in her last turf start and ran a good 3rd closing into a slow pace. She flopped on the synthetic last time, but the Conductor is ignoring that effort. They switch her back to turf today and she faces her weakest competition to date. She looks to get a favorable trip on the inside and up close to a slow pace. Saez sticking aboard after a poor effort last time is a positive sign too.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.SAlw 54000n1x

The Mrs (3/1) – 5/2 would be more than fair on this filly. She’s paired up two races in a row at Gulfstream that likely beat this field and she cuts back a furlong to her best distance. She draws well to the outside and will get the jump on the favorite #1 Charlie’s Wish (2/1).

Race 8: 7½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 20000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Lexinator (5/1) – Off a break last time, this mare ran well going a mile with a poor turf trip. She pressed the pace 3-wide and uncovered around both turns. She rightfully tired late and that race should set her up perfectly for today. Lexinator draws outside again, but without much speed to her inside the Conductor thinks she can get over to 2-path going into the first turn. She’ll take the lead turning for home and the shorter distance will help her chances.

Gulfstream Park Sunday Picks — March 26, 2023 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

on March 26, 2023April 19, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

The pit stop at the Fair Grounds proved fruitful for Mr. Conductor and us passengers. Didia at 7/2 and Southlawn at 8/1 were able to find the winners circle (Louisiana Derby Day Saturday). A nice pillage pit stop will always make the Ductor smile. Back to Gulfstream Park we go. Skip.

Race 5: 7½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 20000b

#7 Malibu Uproar (9/2) – This gelding always runs his race and finishes strong. 2nd off the layoff, dropping in class and shortening to his favorite distance, he makes a lot of sense. He looks to get some pace to run at today with a bunch of sprinters stretching out too.

Race 7: 1 Mile. F.Mdn 84k

#2 Be Here Now (12/1) – This filly showed ability in her debut at Gulfstream sprinting on dirt last fall. She returned off he bench on the turf last time and ran better than it looks on paper. She had a no chance trip, Leparoux had her in the parking lot the entire way around. Nothing in her pedigree says she’d be better on turf anyway, so they rightfully bring her back to the dirt here. She has the early speed to work out a nice trip and that last race gives her the stamina to finish the job. She will listen t the Ductor and get to the wire right when he says so.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 25000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 On Alert (8/1) – This filly showed talent last year running huge late pace figures closing into slow paces. She returned off a long layoff last time at this level and clearly needed the race. On Alert was way far back behind a slow pace and Castellano barely rode her. She galloped out past most of the field and now she’s primed to run her best. She gets back to her best distance today too. She’ll be the key to the Ductor’s day.

Louisiana Derby Saturday Picks — March 25, 2023 | Louisiana Derby Day at Fair Grounds

on March 24, 2023April 19, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A dynamic horse race featuring multiple horses and jockeys in colorful silks competing on a dirt track.

A 2nd, 3rd and 4th made for a frustrating Friday at Gulfstream. Whatever, it’s Louisiana Derby Saturday in New Orleans and the Conductor needs to make a pit stop. A nice all stakes pick 5 looks like delicious supper while riding the rails..

The Ductor officially has derby fever. Skip.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.100K Tom Benson Memorial Stakes

#6 Didia (3/1) – This Argentinian superstar is 6/7 on turf and 2/2 at the distance. She’s carried her form to the America, where she’s won twice with a thundering late kick. #1 Adventuring (2/1) will take the most money in this race, but the Conductor is against her at a short price. She’s 0/2 at the distance.

Race 9: New Orleans Classic Stakes

#5 Rattle N Roll (10/1) – There is plenty of early speed in this race and that should set things nicely for this colt. He became really good last summer and is now making his 1st start as a 4-year-old. He’s working bullets entering today and his Oklahoma Derby win at this distance gives him a chance here. With natural development as a 4-year old, he’s the value in this race the Conductor will key .

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) G2 Muniz Memorial Classic Stakes

#7 Another Mystery (6/1) – This race may be a mystery to some, but not the Conductor. This horse was game in defeat last time and the Ductor likes the cutback in distance for him today. #1 Atone (5/2) will be the heavy favorite exiting a Grade 1 victory in the Pegasus, but that was a weak Grade 1 field. With wins at this distance and over this turf course, #7 Another Mystery will be flying down the stretch under Prat.

Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G2 Fair Grounds Oaks

#1 Southlawn (8/1) – This is the stinkiest betting race of the sequence with only a 5-horse field and 3 mediocre favorites. However, the Ductor will find value like only he can. This filly returned off the bench last time vs allowance company and was dominant in victory. She made an early move on the back stretch and extended her lead in the lane. That race puts her right with this group on speed figures and she’ll be a nice price. If you don’t play her, this race isn’t bettable.

Race 12: 1 3/16 Mile. G2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby

*Gullet Shot of the Day #11 Jace’s Road (12/1) – Throw out this colt’s two races in the slop and he fits right in with this group. He showed talent as a 2-year old and returned at 3 with a strong gate to wire victory over this Fair Grounds dirt surface. There isn’t much early speed in this race and the Conductor sees him getting a favorable trip setting a moderate pace. Cox clearly believes in him despite his poor effort in the slop last time. Its a good sign that Cox runs him here when he has two other contenders in here, including the favorite #2 Instant Coffee (2/1).

Gulfstream Park Friday Picks — March 24, 2023 | Full Card Value Plays

on March 23, 2023April 19, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

Black and white image of railroad tracks extending into the distance, surrounded by trees and foliage.

0-3 at Gulfstream provides a little bump in the track for the Conductor. However, #Gullet Shot of the Day No Ill Will was able to get into the trifecta at a ridiculous 46/1 in the finale Thursday. Hopefully some of you passengers were able to hit that juicy tri. Nothing but prices Friday for Mr. Ductor. Let’s head into the weekend loaded with coal. Skip.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OClm 35000

#3 Miss M M (12/1) – This is an evenly matched field without any standouts. Miss M M is the lone wild card that can jump up and win at a price. She’s exiting two strong efforts sprinting on synthetic and now stretches out on the turf for the 1st time. She ran well in her lone sprint on the turf, so the Conductor is not concerned about the surface. With a comfy trip up close or setting a moderate pace, the Ductor will take a swing.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Moc 50000

#4 Lendhercredit (12/1) – This filly has two solid works after moving to the Delgado barn. She debuted sprinting on the dirt and Delgado rightfully moves her to the turf today. She has the best turf breeding in the field. Her dam, Lenatareese, has produced 8 winners from 11 starters, including 5 on the turf. With only a 75k purchase price, the drop to the 50k claiming level doesn’t bother the Conductor. Castellano taking the mount is a positive sign as well.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. OClm 50000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Canal (8/1) – Another asinine morning line at Gulfstream Park, but the Conductor thinks he’ll get 3/1 on this colt. He ran great last time with a heinous trip going a mile on the turf. He was in the parking lot the entire way around the track and rightfully tired late. Now after moving into the Orseno barn, he shortens in distance and switches back to turf. His best race came at 7 furlongs at Churchill last fall where he won at 7/1. Canal is the Ductor’s best bet on the card.

Gulfstream Park Thursday Picks — March 23, 2023 | Full Card Contenders

on March 22, 2023April 19, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A thrilling horse racing scene featuring multiple jockeys and horses with a focus on the betting odds of 5-1 displayed prominently.

Bailador wins at 5/1 and the rest of the Conductor’s horses scratched Wednesday! Who does Gulfstream think they are? The Ductor cannot wait to return to New York and Kentucky. Whatever, they can’t scratch them all and 500% ROI ain’t too bad. Skip.

Race 1: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Moc 50000

#7 Ransom Style (10/1) – The public backed her debut last year. When she returned off the bench last time sprinting on the turf, she was ignored and jogged around the track. The Conductor thinks that was a clear prep race for this spot. Now she drops in class, stretches out to a mile and Irad hops aboard. Everything points that she fires a big effort here.

#1 Armonia (6/1) -She ran strong late pace figures closing into slow paces in both of her starts. She has a strong foundation while the rest of this bunch hasn’t proven anything routing on the turf

Gulfstream Park Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.OClm 50000

#5 Le Boiana (12/1) – This filly is exiting 5-furlong sprint races with quick paces on synthetic. It behooves Conductor why and trainer Antonio Sano finally switches her back to dirt today. Her best race was a 6-furlong dirt sprint victory at Gulfstream and ta repeat of that race can beat this field. She’ll like the added distance and there’s nobody special she has to defeat here.

Gulfstream Park Race 9: 7½ Furlongs. (Turf) MC 35000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 No Ill Will (15/1) – This gelding took money on debut sprinting on the dirt and also showed early speed after breaking slow. Now, he drops in class, stretches out in distance and switches to the surface he’s bred for. With 36 horses this year, trainer Christopher Davis is 17% +$0.95 ROI moving runners to the turf for the 1st time. No Ill Will should break sharper with the addition of blinkers and show this weak field what he’s made of. The Ductor is wishing the rest of the field nothing but the worst (with a safe trip for all of course). Skip.

Gulfstream Park Wednesday Picks — March 22, 2023 | Full Card Contenders

on March 20, 2023April 19, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A vintage steam train releasing steam while traveling on railway tracks, surrounded by scenic hills and a cloudy sky.

The Conductor gave you four horses at Gulfstream Sunday and three of them scratched The Ductor does take kindly to wasted racing days, especially on the weekends. He’s already preparing for this week. Not a harder worker on the rails. Skip.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Clm 50000n2L

#9 Bailador (8/1) – This 1st time gelding is working well off the bench for a 21% barn off layoffs. He also switches back to turf where he’s only tried once prior. His breeding screams that he wants to mow and he gets a rider upgrade to Gaffalione today. He looks to get a favorable trip up close or setting a slow pace.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.S.OC 20000n1x

#3 Shes All Woman (4/1) – This mare made a strong wide move on the turn vs open company at Gulfstream last time. Now 2nd off the layoff, dropping in class and shortening a furlong, she should beat this field.

#5 Brittiz (10/1) – She’s the longshot that interests the Ductor. She’s been close to the pace routing on turf and synthetic for 6 starts and they finally cut her back to a dirt sprint. Brittiz began her career with a 2nd and a win sprinting on the dirt. She’ll be finishing strong late and can inject value into this race.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) OClm 35000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Shankar (4/1) – This gelding was impressive breaking his maiden in his first start on turf last time. He was bumped repeatedly going into the first turn and then traveled 3-wide and uncovered the entire way. You don’t see many horses win on turf with that type of trip. He gets a nice rail draw today and the Ductor will lean on him in a race that looks wide open on paper.

Gulfstream Park Sunday Picks — March 19, 2023 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

on March 19, 2023April 19, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

3 for 4 Saturday at Gulfstream with 7/2, 2/1 and 7/5 winners. The lone loser was Missionaire who got nailed at the wire at 5/1. Solid day, but the Ductor doesn’t play this game for short prices. He wants double digits and he wants them now. Skip. Race 5: 5

Race 5: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 84k

#1 Lawful (4/1) – Making his first start on turf last time at Gulfstream, he had wait behind horses until it was too late. He finished well and gets a much better draw to the inside today. With the rider upgrade to Gaffalione, the Ductor sees him graduating.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 35000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Tetragrammaton (20/1) – The Ductor’s going for the jugular in this race. Trainer Frank Russo stretched him out on the Gulfstream turf 1st off the claim last time and he got cooked in a wicked speed duel. The Ductor likes that they stick to the plan and will try to wire the field again. This gelding has won gate to wire at this distance before and has fast enough races on turf to win at this level. He should be able to get a comfortable lead today and the Ductor will be screaming for him to steal it. Skip.

Race 9: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) OC 25000n1x

#1 High Front (4/1) – Making his 4-year-old debut, he’s working his eyeballs out. He showed talent last year and has won gate to wire on this turf course before. He looks too much for this field to handle.

#2 City Drifter (8/1) – This horse had a bad trip on synthetic last time and now switches back to turf. He loves to win races and is facing a weaker group today than he did last time on turf. With a nice draw, the Ductor sees him working a nice trip sitting behind the #1. He has upset potential.

Gulfstream Park Saturday Picks — March 18, 2023 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

on March 17, 2023April 19, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

Exciting horse racing scene featuring jockeys in colorful silks competing on a racetrack, showcasing speed and athleticism.

Another 1/3 day with a 2/1 winner Friday at Gulfstream. Not good enough, but at least we’re not dead in a ditch. A big day is coming soon. Skip

Race 5: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F,Mdn 84k FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD

#1 Accomplished Girl (6/1) – She made a decent move from the back of the pack on debut. She was the only runner to pass horses in an otherwise merry go round race that day. The Ductor thinks that effort was sneaky good and she’s the most likely winner here at a solid price. In her 2nd career start, she’ll add breaking her maiden to her impressive resume.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 84k FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD

#4 Missionaire (8/1) – This colt was bet to favoritism on debut and ran what looks like a dull 3rd. However, the pace was unbelievably slow and the closers had no shot. He still ran a strong late pace figure and Clement puts the blinkers on him to have him closer to the pace today. With a nice post draw the Ductor sees him taking a big step forward.

Race 10: 1 Mile. Clm 6250n3L FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Royal Kitten (9/2) – There is absolutely no pace in this race. Royal Kitten is exiting a sprint at Gulfstream with a quick pace and is the only contender in here with any semblance of early speed. The Ductor likes that they put the blinkers on him. The plan should be to send him right to the front where he’ll get everything his own way. 7/2 or better would be a gift from the pony gods.

Race 11: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) Silks Run Stakes Purse $100,000 FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

#9 Big Invasion (5/2) – This colt returns to Gulfstream after an impressive a campaign last year. He’s a cut above this field and has an incredible turn of foot. Rosario could mess it up from the 9 post, but the Ductor thinks Big Invasion is good enough to overcome a bad trip.