Month: September 2018

Ponies

Winners down the Throat Latch: Thursday’s Plays at Gulfstream Park

The Conductor's Scribe

The rain ruined yesterday as expected for the Conductor.  A lot of scratches, small fields and not a lot of winners.  The Conductor cannot wait for Santa Anita to get started on Saturday, but in the meantime will shoot the train down to Florida to build his bankroll.  Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 5 Furlongs (Turf) F.OC 12500

#6 Taylor’s in Orbit (6/1) – The two favorites will take a lot of money in here and the Conductor doesn’t like either.  She should get a good trip in here and that’s all the Conductor is looking for.

Race 2: 5½ Furlongs. F.MC 10000

#6 Starof Distinction (6/1) – She took money in her last start vs better and showed some good early speed.  The jockey/trainer combo of Luca/Bates are hot with a +$0.37 ROI in their last 30 starts and the Conductor will ride the hot hand.

Race 3: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) OC 25000n1x

#8 Starship Wildcat (9/5) – The Conductor hates chalk, but he can’t see this wily vet losing.  Drawn well to the outside, he is just plain faster and classier than this group.  Free square.

Race 4: 1 Mile. F.OC 16000n1x

#1 Denver (4/1) – The #4 War Value will be the odds-on favorite in this one, but the Conductor will take a shot against.  #1 Denver came from the clouds without much of a setup last time and Conductor thinks she has some talent.  The stretch out shouldn’t be a problem and she should be up closer to the pace today.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) MC 40000

#9 Grand Journey (6/1) – Well bet in his debut, he ran a solid 4th in a 10-horse field in a race taken off the turf.  His breeding suggests the grass is what he wants, and the Conductor loves to see a quality effort vs unwanted circumstances.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. Clm 6250n3L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Bluegrass Envy (10/1) – This gelding has lost his last two starts by a combined 27 lengths, do you think the Conductor cares? The Conductor loves the cutback in distance after speeding and fading vs tougher in his last effort.  His speed figs fit against this group and the Conductor will love if the public doesn’t bet him.

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Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 30000b

*Stone Cold Lock of the Day #3 Prospectively (7/2) – This has run three races at roughly this class level on turf and has two wins and a 2nd.  Drawn well to the inside she can save ground along the rail then tip out and run them all down in the stretch.  7/2 would be stealing.

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Race 8: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 47k

#3 Mantaray Island (9/5) – The Conductor doesn’t like the others in here and this is a tale as old as time.  Her dam has 4 winners from 5 starters, she’s working well and its Pletcher at Gulfstream.  Free Square.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 35000n1x

#3 Cowgirl Tough (5/1) – She hasn’t raced since April, but Teresa Pompay has them ready to go off the bench and they usually improve in their first start in her barn.  This mare has the strongest late kick in this field and she should get a beautiful ground saving trip.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. MC 50000

#3 Logsdon (20/1) – This colt has the only early pace figs above par in this field.  He’s been well bet and should step forward in his 3rd start off the layoff.  He could be dangerous in an unproven field and the Conductor will bet he’ll run in the trifecta.

Ponies

Humpday Esophogus Stuffers: Wednesday’s Plays at Belmont Park

The Conductor's Scribe

The major tracks start back up as we get to hump day and the Conductor is ready to fire.  Hopefully weather doesn’t ruin Wednesday’s card, but either way he’ll be taking swings.  Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. F.S.OC 40000n2x

#1 Might Be (6/5) – This filly is a stand out in here.  She will be able to clear from the rail and run them off their feet.  She’s working well and won’t lose, but she’ll be a very short price.

Race 2: 1 Mile. (Off Turf) F.S.MC 40000

#2 Unparalleled (15/1) – The Conductor is predicting off the turf for these lower level races.  In a field without any success on dirt, he likes the filly who will make the front.  She will be on the lead and the Conductor will see if the others can take mud in the face and pass her.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. (Off Turf) F.Clm 35000n3L

#2 Esther the Queen (9/2) -This mare will make her first start of the year, but the Conductor isn’t bothered with these connections.  The simple fact that Jose is aboard means she’s ready to run.  She likes the off track and should be a square price.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 20000

#6 Brooklyn Gerty (6/5) – Heavily bet against tougher in her last start, she has the most talent in this field.  With speed drawn to the inside, she should get a perfect stalking trip sitting just behind the leaders.  This is a free square.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. (Off Turf) Clm 35000n3L

#3 Mohican (5/1) – This gelding ran a career best effort in a race that came off the turf at Saratoga last time.  He will get the same scenario again today and the Conductor will bet this is what he wants.  If he runs the exact same race he’ll have a big shot let alone if he improves.

Race 6: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 32000

*Stone Cold Mortgage Lock of the Day #2 Forge (5/2) – Dropping in class, cutting back in distance and the fastest speed figures in this field, the Conductor is praying he gets 2/1 on this colt.  He will back up the caboose right to the windows.

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Race 7: 7 Furlongs. (Off Turf) Clm 32000

#2 Take It To Scale (3/1) – The Conductor loves playing these claimers taken from Chad Brown and Pletcher at Saratoga.  They drop horses well below their level and this gelding is no exception.  His speed figures fit at this level, he is working bullets and gets a red hot Jose Ortiz.  The Conductor loves him.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. (Off Turf) F.S.Alw 66000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Shanghai Dreams (6/1) – This filly ran them off their feet to break her maiden and ran a number that gives her a great shot against this bunch.  She has every right to improve in her second start with Lasix and the Conductor is salivating at the 6/1 morning line.

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Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. MC 20000

#9 Uncle Larry (2/1) – This gelding’s turf races have stunk, but he gets back to dirt today.  He drops in class and if he runs the race he did last on dirt at Gulfstream the Conductor can’t see anyone in this group stepping up to beat him.  Easy Money

Ponies

Free Money, Locks and Gullet Shots: Saturday’s Stakes Plays at Parx

The Conductor's Scribe

It’s taken a few weeks to get the site up and running, but we should full boar from here on out.  There are some quality races at Parx today, so the Conductor will ride the rails down to Philly on this beautiful Saturday and hammer this stakes pick 3 for more money than god. The Conductor sees kill shots all over the place, Let’s Ride.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. Grade 3 Gallant Bob Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Seven Trumpets (12/1) – The Conductor is only using two horses in this race and both are juicy prices.  This colt ran his lifetime best in the Allen Jerkins last out, running a solid second behind Promises Fulfilled.  He has always wanted to sprint and the cutback in distance last time was what he needed.  He’s been working like a champion leading up to today and the Conductor thinks he’s poised for a monster performance.

Backup Throat Slit #7 War Giant (8/1) – This race doesn’t have a ton of early pace for a graded stakes sprint and this boy is the speed of the speed.  Drawn well to the outside, he should be able to clear to the front and will be very dangerous as they turn for home.

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Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. F. Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes

*95% Stone Cold Lock #2 Monomoy Girl (3/5) – She’s clearly the class of this field and she should get a perfect trip in this one without a lot of speed signed on.  The Conductor doesn’t see her getting beat, but there is one horse in here he thinks has the potential.

Backup Throat Slit #5 SeparationofPowers (10/1) – This filly ran a massive in the G1 Test last out closing into a slow pace and getting the victory.  She’s stretching out in distance today, but the Conductor doesn’t see that as an issue.  Her win in the Frizette last year was as fast as Monomoy Girl has ever run.  She’ll sit a good trip up close to the pace and will have every chance with a step forward.

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Pennsylvania Derby Grade I

*Double Down Esophagus Shot of the Day #3 Instilled Regard (15/1) – The Conductor has always liked this colt as he was running solid races closing in behind the likes of Justify.  We last saw him in the Derby, where he ran a good 4th and since then he has moved into Chad Brown’s barn.  The Conductor sees him running a career best as a fresh 3-year-old and he will be very dangerous.

Most Likely Winner #8 McKinzie (5/2) – This was Bobby Baffert’s Derby horse before an injury sidelined him until today.  He is training well, and the Conductor sees him as the one to beat.  This race doesn’t have a lot of pace and he will be able to dictate his own trip on or near the lead.  If he’s an improved racehorse this race is over, but there are enough question marks where the Conductor will use a few others.

Backup Throat Slit #7 Mr Freeze (12-1) – The Conductor would love Dale Romans to have a big day today.  This colt will be over looked coming from Mountaineer, but his last victory was extremely impressive pulling away by 8.  This colt want to run all day and has enough early speed to make him very dangerous.  A repeat effort of his last race gives him a shot, let alone another move forward.

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Let’s Ride

 

Ponies

Free Money, Locks and Gullet Shots: Saturday’s Plays at Los Alamitos

The Conductor's Scribe

Not the quality of racing or field sizes summer racing provided us, but the Conductor will still make us some loot, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 5½ Furlongs. Clm 6250n2x

Top Pick: #5 Kaluhla (2/1) – The Conductor hates favorites as we know but this looks like nothing than a free square.  Miles the best current form, best early speed, good outside post, easy winner.

Backup: #1 Atomic Action (3/1) – Has the back class, he is rounding into form.

Race 2: 1 Mile. F.Clm 12500n2L

Top Pick: #6 Topaz Time (5/2) – Drops in class today and should get the easiest of leads in a race devoid of any pace.  This sorry bunch will have a tough time passing him.

Backup: #4 Inland Empire (2/1) – Huge class drop with back class and switches back to dirt today.  She’s the only other filly with a chance.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. F.MC 20000

Top Pick #9 Lucky Stash (4/1) – In her only start, she took money at the windows against much better at Del Mar.  The Conductor loves that angle in these maiden claimers, the market knows who has talent.

Backups: 1,3,4,5 – Open maiden race, many with chances

Race 4: 5½ Furlongs. F.Alw 8000s

Top Pick #4 Herunbridledpower (3/1) – This Los Al specialist is a hard knocker, a versatile winner and will likely be the third betting choice with the two Del Mar shippers.  This mare will show them what home turf is all about.

Price Pony: #1 Asem (12-1) – Longest shot on the board, lightly raced and improving with good early speed, she could spice things up.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. F.MC 20000

Top Pick: #6 Omerta (6-1) – She showed the most talent in this group last year, showing rocket speed against better.  She stunk her debut at this level last time, but she was claimed which is a good sign.  This field stinks and she has as good of a chance as any.

Backups: #4 What a Flirt (2/1), #6 Grandma Neta (2/1)

Race 6: 1 Mile. EBJohnstnB75K

*Stone Cold Lock of the Day: #3 Edwards Going Left (5/2) – It’s not a question on whether this gelding wins, the questions is by how many.  Absolute standout in this one, you don’t need any others.

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Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 40k

#7 Queen of the Track (6-1) – She’s showed good early speed then folded like a deck of cards in her first two starts.  She’ll be facing worse today, has been working very well and gets a hot jockey/trainer combo, who are 4/11 with a +$15.40 ROI in the last 60 days.  She has every right to improve and the Conductor will take a shot with a price in this open race.

Backups: 1,2,4,10, (12) – Tough maiden race, many with chances

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. F.BJLewisB75K

*Gullet Shot of the Day: #7 Steph Being Steph (5/1) – This filly is steadily improving, and she should step forward in her second start off the layoff.  She has faced much better prior and should get a perfect trip from the outside post sitting just off the inside speed. The Conductor will steer the train straight to the windows to hammer this filly.

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Bonus Price Pony #6 Priced Perfection (6-1) – She ran much faster early pace figures after adding blinkers in her last start.  That win makes her competitive in this field.   The Conductor will only use these two in a race where the favorites have question marks.

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs.MC 20000

Top Pick: #7 Agronomo (4/1) – Another open betting Maiden Claimer on this card.  This colt’s speed figures fit and he should appreciate his 2nd start with lasix today.  He’s the most likely winner.

Ponies

He’s Back.

The Conductor's Scribe

Del Mar and Saratoga are over, but horse players are rejoicing in the streets.  The Conductor has decided to give back to the public yet again after a two-year hiatus.  He’ll be playing the California circuit full time, but he’ll also take the train across the country Monday-Wednesday and give his picks for all the major stakes action.  His best long-shot plays, locks of the day and savant analysis will be shared to the masses seven days a week.  The conductor dabbles in football as well.  What a treat, I really needed this too after the summer I had. It’s my pleasure to share his wisdom with the public and I cannot wait for my financial life to change.

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