A few good opinions yesterday on a chalky day at Santa Anita. The Baffert horse in the fourth looks like a freak.
The Conductor has been slacking the last few months, due to the racing slow period and some changes in his life. The Conductor doesn’t half ass anything, so ‘s decided to put the train in the station for good. They’re positive life changes, he’s not dead in a ditch (yet). He’ll keep the email thescribe@ponyconductor.com, so if you want to contact him send it that way. Maybe you’ll get some free merch in the mail (prolly not). He won’t stop firing away on the ponies and you passengers better never surrender either. Hopefully you got a few laughs and a few winners out of the deal. Always remember, if you give a man a fish, you’ll eat for a day, but if you give a man a pony, you’ll eat for a lifetime. Godspeed and the Conductor will see you at Saratoga this summer, passengers buy the stews #skip
For those who have reached out, bought apparel and supported the degenerate Conductor’s efforts, special thanks. It was a fun little run, onto the next race.
Could you be more wrong than the Conductor at the Fairgrounds yesterday? Probably not. Back to the west coast. Lat’s Ride.
Race 1: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 55k
#8 On Mars (6/1) – Favored last time, she got caught in a pace duel before fading. She can take a step forward trying the grass today and Mike Smith hops aboard.
Race 3: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 55k
#6 Too Much Smoke (12/1) – She was well bet on debut and hasn’t shown much in two starts. She gets a major rider upgrade today and Peter Miller is 30% this year with runners making their 2nd career grass start. She could take a major step forward.
Race 6: 6 Furlongs. S.OC 20000n1x
#5 Tigre Di Slugo (3/1) – 2nd off the layoff and getting off the rail today, the Conductor thinks he’ll run a big one. His debut win was very impressive.
#8 Big Barrel (20/1) – Cutting back to a sprint after pressing a hot pace going a mile last start, the Conductor sees him spicing up the exotics underneath.
Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.G3 Sweet Life Stakes
#4 Shines Her Light (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she looks to get a perfect trip again like she did last time in victory.
The Conductor is going to get bold right off the bat and TOSS the favorite #4 Sliver Dust (5/2) in leg 1. Can he win? Absolutely, but he’s nothing special and the Conductor wasn’t impressed with the Louisiana Stakes last time. He’s going to have to deal with a hotter pace than he’s seen in his last few starts as well.
The Conductor sees #6 Hofburg (4/1) as a standout in here and will press him on most tickets. The layoff and running style are the only things not making him a stone cold single.
#1 Mocito Rojo (8/1), #2 Sleepy Eyes Todd (10/1), #10 Cutting Humor (8/1) and #11 Pirate’s Punch (10/1) are all prices the Conductor will be using in here as well.
There is going to be a very hot pace in this one and the closers will have an advantage. #2 Synchrony (3/1) and #5 Dontblamerocket (9/2) are the most logical winners but can’t be completely trusted.
#6 Classic Covey (6/1), #9 Captivating Moon (10/1), and #12 Midnight Tea Time (12/1) are others that the Conductor likes and the will get great setups.
Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes
The Conductor much prefers #6 British Idiom (8/5) to #7 Finite (2/1) and he will TOSS the #7. The Conductor will also use #3 Swiss Skydiver (8/1). His debut win was very strong and he should improve 2nd off the layoff.
The 2nd division of the Risen Star doesn’t deserve a horse by horse breakdown. The race looks to start and end with the heavy favorite on paper.
*#8 Anneau d’Or (9/5) – 2nd by a head in his last two races, he’s pressed hot paces against tougher and been game to the wire. Unless he doesn’t show up completely, he looks like a cut above this group.
If you’re a passenger who refuses to take the chalk or looking to fill out the exacta with some prices, here’s two the Conductor likes.
#7 Major Fed (10/1) – This race looks to have a quicker pace than the Division 1 running, so the Conductor prefers closers underneath. This colt ran a monster late pace figure in his maiden breaker last time and his kick was visually impressive down the lane.
#10 Finnick the Fierce (10/1) – A deep closer who continues to outrun his odds without great pace setups, he will be finishing strongly. 2nd off the layoff, he should take a step forward exiting a decent 4th in the Lecomte stakes.
Its getting to that time of year, the first Saturday in May is going to be here faster than Conductor downing a tall glass of stew. The first major prep races are Saturday and the fields are drawn for the two divisions of the Risen Star. Last years races proved to be very key to the triple crown races. What will this year’s results bring? There are no certainties other than a lot of money going into the Conductor’s pocket. Let’s Ride.
#1 Digital (6/1) – He had a very favorable trip last time up close to a very slow pace and couldn’t get the job done. He’s not for the Conductor.
*#2 Silver Slate (4/1) – The running styles in this race are very intriguing. You have a group that have only won gate to wire and many deep closers. The ones that can lay close to the pace and get first run will have the advantage and this boy looks like he’ll get the trip. He had trouble at the break last time and rallied for a strong 2nd in the G3 Lacomte stakes. His early pace figures sprinting show that he has enough tactical speed to be in a much for favorable position early.
#3 Ready to Roll (20/1) – His maiden win was a slow-paced gate to wire victory in the slop. Pass
#4 Perfect Revenge (20/1) – He has the most experience in the field and his last two efforts on dirt have been much improved. Another step forward and he could hit the board at a massive number.
#5 Moon Over Miami (10/1) – This colt’s maiden breaker was impressive, and he had a brutal trip last time. The Conductor won’t talk you off him.
#6 Sashaahakemeup (20/1) – No excuses last time, no chance.
#7 Blackberry Wine (5/1) – 5/1 on a gate when he’s only proven he can win on the front end of slow paces? Suckers bet.
#8 Enforceable (7/2) – This colt is the class of the field, but do you really want a favorite that will be coming from dead last? He’s not for the Conductor.
#9 Mr Monomoy (6/1) – He should have done more with his trip in the Lecomte.
#10 Farmington Road (8/1) – He looks to get a favorable trip, but this may be asking a little too much. His win last start bodes well for #5 Moon Over Miami (10/1).
#11 Scabbard (12/1) – There is no chance this colt will go off at those odds. He’s another deep closer and will drop way back from the 12 post. That said, he has talent and upside 2nd off the layoff. If somehow he doesn’t take money at the windows the Conductor will include as a backup.
Santa Anita is finally back in action and the Conductor has to pay for his golf trip somehow. Let’s Ride.
Race 1: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.Mdn 55k
#6 Squalotoro (8/1) – The Conductor likes this boy’s work tab and Puype can hit with first time starters. He’s 12% with a +$0.06 ROI this year with debut runners. The Conductor hates the M/L favorites in here.
Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.OC 50000n1x
#3 Florentine Diamond (9/2) – Whenever a 1st timer has a blowout debut win for very low % connections, the Conductor takes note. This filly may have some real talent.
Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) BaffleB75K
#3 Bulletproof One (2/1) – This filly can scoot early and she looks primed for a monster effort cutting back to a more preferable distance 2nd off the bench.
Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 75000
*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Wine At Sunset (10/1) – Why is Mike Smith hopping aboard a 75k claimer who didn’t show much in their debut, for a barn he rarely rides for? The Conductor smells something fishy.
The Conductor is very happy he’s back. Very Very happy. Let’s Ride
Race 1: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 40000n1x
#8 Queen of the Track (6/1) – She has an early pace edge over this field. 2nd off the layoff she’ll have more left in the tank late.
Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 80000n1x
#2 Savy Gal (3/1) – Cutting back to a sprint after pressing a hot pace routing, the Conductor loves her.
Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes
#1 Encoder (8/1) – Trying dirt for the first time, this colt looks to get a perfect trip saving ground from the rail with a hot pace in front to close into.
Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 San Pasqual Stakes
#1 Roadster (7/2), #4 King Abner (4/1) – The Conductor only needs these two in a solid betting race. They have a class edge over this group.
Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 40000n1x
*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Prima Valentina (15/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she had a troubled trip last time and this is a wide open affair. The Conductor will key her in the exact and trifecta.
