Category: Keeneland

The Conductor’s Keeneland picks for Saturday, October 10. Good luck passengers.

Keeneland Picks Race by Race

Keeneland Best Bets for Saturday

Race 4, #5 Gilded Craken, 2/1.

Dirt routes have been kind to favorites, so we’ll take one here. Ran big at Saratoga in July and even better at Churchill in June. Last out was on the Kentucky Downs turf. Toss it. Back on dirt for Joe Sharp, who is 2 for 6 at the meet. Use Alder at 8/1 underneath.

Race 8, #9 It’s My Life, 10/1.

Won an allowance over this track in April and comes back fresh for Luis Saez. Bold Strength is the 5/2 favorite for a Cox barn that is 2 for 16 here.

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Pick

Race 9, #7 Storm’s Wake, 10/1.

Won the Old Dominion at Colonial last out and was second in the Regret at Churchill in May. Gaffalione leads the meet and stays on. Use Faithful Departed and the French filly Braida underneath. Braida won her last at Longchamp and will be coming late.

Catch up on Friday’s Keeneland picks and Sunday’s Keeneland picks.

Morning line odds. Scratches reflected as of 12:45 PM ET. Meet stats cover October 2 through 9.

The Conductor’s Keeneland picks for Friday, October 9. The opener is in the books with Horsetron Supreme getting home first, so the card starts with Race 2. The Grade 2 Sycamore goes at a mile and a half on the turf, and the value is everywhere but the favorites. Good luck passengers.

Keeneland Picks Race by Race

Keeneland Best Bets for Friday

Race 6, #1 Smoken Boy, 8/1.

Second at this level at Churchill last out and ran a 91 the start before. His career best is a 101, the highest number in the race. Tyler Gaffalione picked him up this morning, a big upgrade. Real Macho is 2/1 for being consistent. Smoken Boy has the higher ceiling at four times the price.

Race 8, #3 Judicious, 8/1.

Won her maiden with a 91 and has run back to 80 twice against allowance company since. Just worked a half in 46.80, second fastest of 125 that morning. Cold Spell is even money off an 83 top and a three month layoff. Take the shot against her.

Sycamore Stakes Pick

Race 9, #4 Navy Seal, 6/1.

Second in the Belmont Gold Cup with a 113 and a 111 in the Bowling Green last out. Nobody in this field has proven more at a real distance. Just a Touch is the 5/2 favorite and Lambeth is 4/1. Navy Seal is the stamina horse at the better price. Use Layabout at 12/1 and Goldeneye at 30/1 underneath. Goldeneye ran 112 and 111 his last two and is being ignored.

Catch up on Sunday’s Keeneland picks and Saturday’s Keeneland picks.

Morning line odds. Updated for scratches as of 12:24 PM ET. Dirt fast, turf firm.

The Conductor’s Keeneland picks for Sunday. Three graded stakes, headlined by the Grade 1 Spinster, and a card built for prices. Only 6 of 21 favorites have won the last two days. Good luck passengers.

Keeneland Best Bets for Sunday

Race 6, #8 Tom Cat Tuesday, 8/1.

Beat Barksdale and Tarantino in the same race at Churchill last out. Those two are 9/2 and 7/2 today. He’s 8/1. Same horses, same distance range, double the price.

Race 7, #2 Bob’s Carrot, 10/1.

Santamaria and Jaime Torres won Friday’s opener at 8/1, and Torres won again later that day at 11/1. The pair wins more than half the time together. He won at seven furlongs last out and beat Michael’s Cove in May, who just won here Friday. Three straight sharp efforts and nobody is talking about him.

Race 8, #1 Adonius, 8/1.

Second in stakes at York and Goodwood. That is the best form in the Indian Summer and it isn’t close. Velazquez has been hot this week, and the rail is the spot to be in a turf sprint here. Ruiva is the 7/5 favorite with Irad, who has lost on seven short priced horses the last two days.

Catch up on Saturday’s Keeneland picks here.

Morning line odds. Check for scratches and track condition.

The Conductor’s card for Saturday at Keeneland. Four graded stakes, headlined by the Breeders’ Futurity and the Turf Mile, and three best bets on the card. Good luck passengers.

Best Bets

Race 5, #3 First Resort, 8/1.

As much early speed as anyone in the field, from a barn that is 2 for 6 the last two weeks. Fired a sharp five furlong work on September 28. Lost as the favorite his last two, which is exactly why he’s 8/1 today.

Race 8, #2 Lush Lips, 8/1.

Six wins and five seconds from 13 starts, including a graded win over Classic Q at Gulfstream. Came back off the layoff at Ellis, cleared the field in the lane and got caught late. Second start back, and she won her only start over this course.

Race 10, #1 Title Role, 12/1.

Third in a Grade 1 at Saratoga last out and now cuts back to a mile. Five wins from nine starts. Walsh is 8 for 23 the last two weeks, and he breaks from the rail with tactical speed. Too big a price in this spot.

Morning line odds. Check for scratches and track condition.

The Conductor’s card for Friday at Keeneland. Inside posts and early speed are the play on this main track. Good luck passengers.

Best Bet, Race 1

#4 Hollybygolly, 8/1.

Stakes placed filly dropping in class for her second start off a layoff. She closed with the best late move in the field last out and sits right behind the speed from post 4.

Value Plays, Race by Race

Race 2, #4 Mena (4/1). Improved three straight times and already a Keeneland winner, breaking from a good inside draw.

Race 3, #2 Seaside Startup (7/2). Showed real ability first time out and breaks inside with speed. Should move forward against a beatable even money favorite.

Race 4, #4 Shewontbudge (6/1). Has run as fast as anyone in here on dirt and has hit the board at Keeneland. Second off the layoff from a good inside post.

Race 5, #4 Should’ve (12/1). Fastest recent race in the field and natural speed from post 4 in a short turf sprint.

Race 6, #6 T V Time Out (6/1). Two solid, matching races for Asmussen. Not far off the 8/5 favorite at four times the price.

Race 7, #8 Hymn (4/1). The most consistent fast horse in the Phoenix. Nakatomi, a 4 time Keeneland winner, goes in every exotic.

Race 8, #5 Seneca Park (9/2). Two solid turf runs and tactical speed from a fair draw in the Jessamine.

Race 9, #5 Summer Starlet (4/5). Clearly the best filly in the Alcibiades. Find your value underneath with Emphatic and Elewene at 15/1.

Race 10, #7 My Boy Tony (8/1). Three seconds and a third from four Keeneland starts. The value in a race where the favorite breaks from post 12.

Morning line odds. Check for scratches and track condition.