Keeneland picks, best bets, and full-card handicapping analysis from The Pony Conductor for every race day at the Lexington, Kentucky track. Spring meet coverage (April) through closing day, plus the fall meet in October. Opening day, Blue Grass Stakes, Ashland, Maker’s Mark Mile, Jenny Wiley, Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup — plus Kentucky Derby prep season analysis. Every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
Sunday’s 8th dropped a 152/1 exacta, hope you were aboard. Closing day at Keeneland is bittersweet. The Conductor will miss the turf, and somebody up top really does need to do something about the CAWS. One more swing before the meet packs up.
| Race | A Contenders | B Contenders |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 7, 2 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | 1, 2 | 5, 7 |
| 4 | 3, 4, 5, 7, 8 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | 4, 6 |
| 6 | 4, 5 | 1, 6 |
| 7 | 9, 4 | 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 |
| 8 | 1, 9 | 3, 6 |
| 9 | 6 | 1, 7, 8 |
| 10 | 4, 6, 8, 11 | 1, 9 |
See you trackside. Then we’re off to Louisville for Derby prep next week. Skip
Good bounce back Saturday for the Conductor. Let’s finish the weekend strong.
Let’s whack’em right between the eyes. Skip.
| Race | A | B | C |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| 2 | 2, 5, 7, 9 | 1, 6 | |
| 3 | 3, 7, 10 | 1, 4, 5, 6 | |
| 4 | 1, 2 | 4, 6, 9 | |
| 5 | 7 | 1 | 2, 9, 11 |
| 6 | 1 | 3, 9, 10 | |
| 7 | 2 | 6 | 1, 4, 8, 9 |
| 8 | 6, 8 | 4, 10 | 7, 13 |
| 9 | 3, 6 | 1, 2, 8, 11 |
The Conductor sucked yesterday. Let’s be honest about it. The 15/1 horse in the turf sprint that got steamed down to 6/1 after the gates opened, and then won on the lead for fun — when he’s never been on the lead in his life — really soured the Conductor on Keeneland.
It’s tough to love this game when the CAWS are in bed with the tracks and the greedy bastards don’t give a shit about the horseplayer. That’s not a game. That’s a tax collection dressed up in silks.
But the Conductor doesn’t quit. The passengers don’t quit. We show up. We cap harder. We try again. Skip.
Be wary of the rain today — there might be some late scratches. The forecast doesn’t look bad enough to take the races off the turf, but watch the board before post time. Scratches reshape this card. Adapt accordingly.
| Race | Contenders |
|---|---|
| Race 1 | 1 / 2, 4 |
| Race 2 | 3, 4 / 2, 8, 9 |
| Race 3 | 3, 7 / 1, 8, 9, 10, 12 |
| Race 4 | 2 / 7 |
| Race 5 | 9, 10, 11 / 1, 7, 8 |
| Race 6 | 3 / 4, 8 / 7, 9, 10 |
| Race 7 | 1 / 3, 4, 7 |
| Race 8 | 3, 6 / 1, 11 |
| Race 9 | 1, 5, 8 / 4, 6 |
| Race 10 | 2, 4 / 1, 3, 5 |
| Race 11 | 12 / 3, 5, 7, 10 |
Watch the scratches. Don’t chase the steam. And remember — the Conductor doesn’t owe the CAWS a damn thing. We ride at our own pace.
New passenger? Subscribe to The Conductor’s Scroll — free to board, First Class for the full weekend card. And if you want to understand what the Conductor is actually doing before he writes these, start with the beginner’s guide to handicapping a horse race.
How the hell is it closing week at Keeneland already? Only three racing days left and we certainly need to make them count. The turf racing is great today. Let’s Ride.
#2 Coiled (10/1) – This colt won nicely in his first start as a 3-year-old this year at Turfway. He ran a strong late pace figure, which should translate well to stretching out on the turf. Add a nice inside draw and a red-hot Ben Curtis in the irons, and you’ve got a live 10/1 shot in a wide open race.
#8 Cha Cha Chuka (20/1) – This is a tough ask against this salty field, but the Counductor will key around this filly at a big price. She consistently overcame poor trips this winter at Gulfstream, closing strongly against slow paces and frontrunner flows. Nobody is better than Maker in these distance turf races.
#1 Indy’s Halo (5/1) – This filly had a no chance trip two back at Gulfstream and then ran a big 2nd last time at Tampa. She was well back behind a tepid pace and showed a strong late kick. Now she draws the rail in her 3rd start off the layoff, and Victoria Oliver runners have been firing at Keeneland. 4/1 or better is fair on Indy’s Halo.
The Conductor will choose to forget Friday. Let’s have a big day before this Keeneland meet is over, please.
#9 Missed the Cut (6/1) – Cherie DeVeaux isn’t having the meet she hoped for, but the Conductor thinks she picks up a stakes win today. This gelding had a brutal trip off a long layoff last time. He was pulled up sharply on the 1st turn, and finished sneaky well against the frontrunner flow, galloping out in front. Gaffalione may have been told to save this one for Keeneland… Missed the Cut is going to run a monster race, the only concern is the post.
#1 Rebel Red (8/1) – The only other horse the Conductor will be using in this race is Missed the Cut’s stable mate. He was also prepped off the bench last time, running a strong late pace figure in a merry go round race. Jose stays aboard and Rebel Red gets a favorable inside draw.
#9 Askari (10/1) – This gelding showed real talent on the turf in 2023 and took a long hiatus to get back to the track. He’s been rounding back into form at Turfway this winter and this looks like the spot where he peaks. Cutting back in distance exiting and switching back to the turf for the first time this year, Askari should run a career best effort. Let’s end the card with a bang.
Clicquot got steamed down, but was a winner Thursday. We still aren’t connecting on the big prices. Mostly chalk came in, and that’s not the way the Conductor likes his Keeneland. Hopefully Friday is a bit more conducive to prices. Let’s Ride.
#8 American Monarch (12/1) – This ridgling jogged around the track last time off a long layoff. That was a clear prep for this race and his workouts have improved since. His best turf races can beat this field and Mott wouldn’t ship him to Keeneland if he wasn’t live. Double digit odds is certainly a bet.
#1 Just F Y I (7/2) – How about a Mott/Alvarado double? #6 Candied (8/5) ran big in the Distaff, but this is her first start of the year and she’s up against the pace scenario here. Just F Y I has a race under her belt in 2025 and can control the early pace vs this group. She’s a more likely winner in the Conductor’s opinion at double the price.
Sign Up at Iron Bets for a 50% First Deposit Bonus and the Best Wager Rewards in Horse Racing
Jimmy Rules finishing 2nd at 24/1 was the only good opinion Wednesday. The Keeneland dirt is still a merry go round track where you need to be on, or up close to the pace. If you can’t beat them, join them. Skip.
#5 Les Is Best (12/1) – This filly has been steadily progressing at Turfway this winter and ran her strongest late pace figure last time. She returns to the lawn today, making her first start on turf as a 3-year-old. She’s bred to mow and the Conductor sees her running a career best effort today 2nd off a break. At double digit odds, she is a major overlay.
#2 Clicquot (6/1) – This filly was hammered at the windows in her debut. She broke slow, rushed up and got caught in a pace duel before throwing in the towel. She’s working well entering today and has a major early pace edge over this field. Hopefully she stays above 7/2 and runs off the screen.
#11 Raptor’s (8/1) – This marathon turf race is devoid of any early speed, and this gelding will be alone on the lead. He’s 2/2 at the distance and had a no chance trip last time off a long layoff. He’s been gelded since, and the Conductor likes that Casse ships him to Keeneland and Jose Ortiz hops aboard. Raptor’s ready to roll. Gate to wire.
Sign Up at Iron Bets for a 50% First Deposit Bonus and the Best Wager Rewards in Horse Racing
Crap Sunday for the Conductor to end the weekend. At least we only had to wait two days to get back in the saddle. This Keeneland meet is going by too quickly. We need to pounce.
#1 Big Earn (9/2) – This filly showed improvement after switching into the Assmussen barn last time at Turfway. She seems to be rounding back into form after her long layoff and she gets a nice rail draw on this inside favoring dirt course. 7/2 or better works for the Conductor.
#5 Gilmore (9/2) – This gelding continues to change barns and moved forward for trainer John Ortiz last time. He ran a strong late pace figure closing behind a slow pace in a sprint. Now they stretch him back out to his best distance and he should be forwardly placed in a race without much early pace. Gilmore is a play over 3/1.
#1 Jimmy Rules (6/1) – It’s tough to bet a closer on this Keeneland dirt, but the early pace in this race should heat up. Jimmy Rules is coming off a career best effort last time at Turfway, closing strong into a slow pace. He has only one career start on a fast dirt track and he’s become a much better animal since. His price should float up from this morning line for a low % barn, and he can win this race if he repeats his last effort. Jimmy Rules up the pine please.
#8 Dala (8/1) – This filly won nicely after setting a quick pace last time on the synthetic. She’s bred to improve moving to the turf today, and this is a turf sprint without much other early speed. 8/1 seems like a very poor morning line, but 4/1 or better would be nice.
Sign Up at Iron Bets for a 50% First Deposit Bonus and the Best Wager Rewards in Horse Racing
And that’s why they call it a bail out race. Thankfully, Autumn Rythem saved the day at 5/1 Saturday in the finale. Let’s not wait until the final race to be right today. Let’s step on the gas early. Skip.
#12 Brushfire (10/1) – This colt set a scorching pace on synthetic last time and did well to hang on for 2nd. Now he tries turf for the first time and he should have no problem clearing to the lead in here. In a wide open race, the Conductor thinks he has a major chance to steal this race on the front end. Saez will do a better job of rationing his early speed.
#6 Big Ritz (15/1) – This first time starter is bred to mow and trainer Rusty Arnorld has a +$0.15 ROI this year debuting runners on turf. It’s a positive sign that Jose Ortiz hops aboard, and this field doesn’t have much proven quality. The Conductor can smell that Big Ritz is live.
#3 Lithe Spirit (10/1) – This filly is stepping up in class on a four race win streak. The Conductor liked the grit she showed last time in a fight to the wire. She switches back to turf today and looks to get an ideal rail pocket trip. If Saez can find a seam entering the stretch, Lithe Spirit is dangerous.
#9 Get Twisted (30/1) – This pace has a real chance to cook up early and that would give this mare a chance as the longest shot on the board. She showed talent winning her debut in a turf sprint way back in 2023 and has been lightly raced since. Get Twisted has been progressing with each start at Turfway this winter, and today looks like the spot she’ll run her best. Even if she comes running a little too late today, she can still hit the board at a big number.
Sign Up at Iron Bets for a 50% First Deposit Bonus and the Best Wager Rewards in Horse Racing
A 3rd and 4th behind the chalk Friday at Keeneland. The Conductor thinks the prices on the lawn will come home today. The sun is out and we have the first beautiful Saturday of the meet. Let’s Ride.
#1 Forty N Five (12/1) – The more the Conductor looks at this race, the more he likes this horse at a price. He showed ability on turf last year and the barn had the confidence in him to try him in a Grade 1. He returned off the bench sprinting on dirt last time, and ran a solid 2nd. That race was a clear prep for this spot and he looks primed to run a career best today switching back to the lawn. Forty N Five looks to get a favorable trip too, with the favorites drawn to the outside.
#3 Bullard (9/2) – This colt has shown by far the most talent in this field. He blew by some strong Baffert runners this summer over a Del Mar track the was very speed biased. He stretches out for the first time today and his breeding suggests the added distance will only help him. Bullard will be the key to the Conductor’s Saturday.
#8 Sacred Wish (8/1) – The European invaders will take the most money in this race, but the Conductor thinks two American prices have a shot. Sacred Wish is in career best form. After winning a Grade 1 in Santa Anita two back, she was finishing best last time against a frontrunner flow. There will be pace to run at in this race and the Conductor thinks she’s a bit underrated.
#9 No Show Sammy Jo (15/1) – This mare was ultra impressive last year, answering every challenge at multiple distances and race tracks. She is working well off the bench and has yet to run a bad race in her career. This isn’t the strongest group of Europeans the Conductor has seen and thinks she stacks up if she fires her best.
#2 Autumn Rhythm (8/1) – This filly will be less than 8/1, but has a clear inside speed advantage over this field. The way this Keeneland dirt track has been playing, the Conductor sees her stealing this race on the front end. Gate to wire.
Sign Up at Iron Bets for a 50% First Deposit Bonus and the Best Wager Rewards in Horse Racing
