Keeneland Friday Picks — April 11, 2025 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

Two racehorses running on a grassy track with spectators in the background at a horse racing event.

A 15/1 2nd by a nose and a solid 3rd at 12/1 with a troubled trip Thursday for the Conductor. Hopefully some of you passengers cashed some verticals. Let’s get the noses down in front today and head into the weekend in style. Skip.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 120000n1x

#8 Rare Art (8/1) – This race is loaded with early speed and the Conductor thinks this is the best closer of the bunch. He was bet to favoritism last time vs similar competition off the bench, and his poor performance can be forgiven. He was very rank while wide entering the 1st turn and would not settle for Johnny V. Now 2nd off the layoff, he switches back to Dylan Davis, who will drop back and save ground. With a quick pace up front, the Conductor expects Rare Art to mow them down in the stretch.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 Makers Mark Mile

#3 Trikari (8/1) – This colt was impressive last year, winning multiple graded stakes at different distances and over varying turf conditions. Most of the contenders in here want to be forwardly placed and Trikari looks to sit an ideal trip sitting right behind the speed. The layoff isn’t much of a concern at the price, and he has upside making his first start as a 3-year-old. The Conductor trusts Motion to have him ready for a Grade 1 at Keeneland.

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Keeneland Thursday Picks — April 10, 2025 | Best Bets & Handicapping

A group of racehorses running on a track with jockeys during a horse race event.

Protege got the job done at 7/2 Wednesday, but lets get on some of these bombs that are coming home. The Turfway shippers are running their eyeballs out on dirt and turf at huge prices. With stacked cards this weekend, it’s time to compile coal. Skip.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 40000n2L

#1 Indy Charges On (12/1) – This race is wide open and the Conductor likes this Turfway shipper at a price. He was on the inside close to a quick pace last time and won nicely. He is stepping up in class today, but is lightly raced and has upside making his first dirt start. He looks like he’ll get the exact same trip as his maiden victory, and he’ll be riding the Keeneland golden rail.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 130000n2x

#3 High Fashion Kate (14/1) – This filly will be making her first start on turf since switching into an improved barn. In her last start in a turf sprint, she lost by a nose at 7/1 vs similar competition. There is very little speed in here after scratches and she looks to get a favorable trip forwardly placed or on the lead. The Conductor is looking for High Fashion Kate to steal this race on the front end.

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Keeneland Wednesday Picks — April 9, 2025 | Best Bets & Track Bias Notes

Three horses racing on a dirt track with jockeys in colorful silks during a horse race event.

Tough Bluegrass Tuesday for the Conductor. Time to cut Chancer McPatrick back in distance. The rail was golden on turf and dirt yesterday, so keep a watchful eye on that trend. Keeneland does typically have an inside bias. The good news is if you have a bad day. you have another Keeneland card every day this week. Keep pounding.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. Alw 30000s

#1 Protege (7/2) – This gelding beat a tougher group in his last fast dirt start. Since then he’s caught a sloppy track and then ran a solid 3rd on the synthetic. Now making his first start on dirt for a better barn, he should fire today.

#3 Bebedouro (12/1) – This gelding is stepping up in class after a nice win on synthetic last time. He’s run previous numbers on dirt that are competitive with this group and the Turfway shippers have been lighting up the tote early this meet. Bebedouro looks to get a favorable trip on a dirt track favoring inside speed.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 120000n1x

#1 Shopper’s Revenge (15/1) – This is a great betting race and the Conductor likes two prices exiting the same race. This gelding tried the turf for the first time last start and ran better than it looks with a nightmare trip. His breeding suggests he should improve on the lawn and the Conductor likes that Assmussen gives him another shot here. The rail draw and Irad in the saddle only help his cause.

#8 Sand Pipes (8/1) – This colt was favored in that last race with Shopper’s Revenge and didn’t have a fair chance. He got completely sawed off at the top of the stretch and still finished well for 4th. In a race that looks to have a quick pace up front, Sand Pipes will be flying late.

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Keeneland Tuesday Picks — April 8, 2025 | Best Bets & Turf Card Analysis

Group of thoroughbred horses racing with jockeys in colorful silks on a grassy track.

Test Score wins nicely at 9/1 Monday and the train is back in motion. Keeneland turf doesn’t stand a chance under the Conductor’s watchful eye. All the races are back on the turf today. Props to the maintenance crew for having the lawn ready despite all the rain. Now we mow. Skip.

Race 2: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 110k

#7 Van Ginkel (8/1) – The Conductor likes this maiden race quite a bit with vulnerable favorites drawn to the outside. Van Ginkel ran better than it looks in his dirt debut last time closing well behind a slow pace. He’s bred for the turf and looks primed to run his best stretching out in distance too. This morning line is probably high with Prat aboard for Chad Brown, but 5/1 will work for the Conductor.

#3 Kicking Clear (15/1) – This longshot also has upside making his first start on turf. He’s bred to mow and has been steadily progressing with each start. He ran a strong late pace figure on the synthetic last time and looks to get a good trip today with a nice inside draw. Kicking Clear can light up the tote.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. Mdn 110k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Last Man Standing (9/2) – This colt had no business finishing 2nd in his debut last time with an abysmal trip. He’s working well off that effort and will get a much better ride here with Irad aboard. The Conductor expects Last Man standing to explode today.

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Shakertown Stakes

#1 Run Carson (6/1) – There isn’t much speed in this turf sprint other than #10 Coppola (6/1). As long as Run Carson breaks well, he should sit a nice trip tracking the leader in 2nd. The Conductor likes the versatility he’s shown in his young career.

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

#6 Chancer McPatrick (7/2) – This colt ran well in his return off the bench last time. Although he finished a distant 2nd to #1 River Thames (5/2), that race was handed to him on the front end. River Thames will face more pace pressure today and Chancer McPatrick should sit a perfect trip. If he doesn’t get the job done today, it will be time to turn him back into a one turn closer.

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Keeneland Monday Picks — April 7, 2025 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

Two horses racing with jockeys in colorful silks at a horse racing event.

0/3 in the slop Sunday Keeneland. Not the start we were looking for. However, the Conductor was pleasantly surprised the sun peaked out today and we have at least one race on the turf. If we can get through this week without any more significant rain, we’ll have full field turf racing. That’s all any man, woman or child can ask for. Let’s Ride.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) G3 Transylvania Stakes

#2 Reagan’s Wit (4/1) – There will be a decent pace in this race and the Conductor thinks it’s a good opportunity to toss the favorite #11 Mi Bago (3/1). The wide post, soft ground and added distance are all going against him. Reagan’s Wit has shown real talent in his young career and will be tough to beat with a nice inside draw. DeVaux looks to pick up right where she left off at Keeneland.

#7 Test Score (8/1) – This colt ran well at Gulfstream off the bench last time, showing a strong stretch kick against the frontrunner flow. He looks primed to run a peak effort today and should be a square price.

#8 Tom’s Magic (12/1) – He’s run three quality races in a row on the turf and is improving with each start. The Conductor expects him to be finishing well down the stretch.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. F. G1 Ashland Stakes

#8 Admit (15/1) – The Conductor has knocks against all the favorites in here and most of them will be pushing the pace. Admit has been running the best late pace figures of the bunch on the synthetic and now switches back to dirt for the first time since the fall. She’ll get a great setup in this race and the Conductor thinks she could spring a massive upset. Bomb’s away in today’s feature race.

Keeneland Sunday Picks — April 6, 2025 | Best Bets on a Sloppy Track

A group of thoroughbred horses racing on a dirt track with jockeys in colorful attire.

We patiently waited all winter for spring, Keeneland and quality turf racing to return. What do we get in the end? Slop. It will not stop raining in Lexington and who knows if they’ll run on the turf anytime soon. The pony gods are not being very generous. The Conductor is angry, but I suppose Keeneland is still better in the slop than most meets these days. Let’s start the meet off right at Iron Bets of course. Skip.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. F.OC 125000n1x

#5 Ruth (15/1) – This filly ran behind the favorite, #9 Justinqueso (7/2), last time, but the Conductor thinks she can turn the tables and at a much better price. That race came back fast and Ruth has every right to improve making her 2nd start off a break today. She also makes her 2nd start with Lasix, which is one of the few angles you can get a +ROI with Pletcher.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Mdn 110k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Plaza Cue (6/1) – Steadily progressing with each start, the Conductor sees this filly graduating today. Her 2nd last time was even better than it looks, closing strongly behind a slow pace. She’ll have a much better setup today and 4/1 or better would be a dream.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (OFF Turf) Alw 150000b

#9 Injunction (12/1) – This gelding ran a solid 2nd off the bench last time over the tapeta. Now he switches back to dirt and he gets his preferred muddy surface. He’s 2/2 in the slop and those were his fastest races on numbers too. He looks to get a great trip today sitting in 2nd and the Conductor thinks he can pull of the upset in the finale.

Keeneland Closing Day Picks — Saturday, October 26, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Analysis

A thoroughbred horse with a saddle and bridle at a racecourse, with spectators in the background.

It’s closing day at Keeneland. Nothing left to do but shovel as much coal as we can heading into the Breeders’ Cup. Let’s Ride.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

#1 Unmerited Favor (15/1) – This filly ran better than it looks in her debut after a terrible start. She was well back after veering in and made a nice move on the turn. McPeek runners are never fully cranked on debut and usually take a big step forward in their next start. Unmerited Favor showed the Conductor she has talent and he’ll bet he’s right double digit odds.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 120000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Beach Walkn (10/1) – This filly looks primed to run her best in her 3rd start off a layoff. She impressed the Conductor last time too. She was keen early wasting lots of energy and still managed to hold onto 3rd going longer. Now she cuts back in distance and gets a nice rail draw. Last October at Keeneland, she pulled off a 20/1 upset. Beach Walkn won’t sneak by the Conductor today.

Keeneland picks today

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) G3 Bryan Station Stakes

#9 Neat (8/1) – The Conductor will be hoping to see red saddle cloths in the winners circle today. This colt ran well with a wide trip last time and now draws to the inside. He should save ground and be exploding late. When he’s in a fight to the wire, he likes to have his nose in front. He’s never settled for 2nd in his career. Uno! Uno! Uno! Skip!

Keeneland Friday Picks — October 25, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

A racehorse galloping with a jockey in green attire at a horse racing event, showcasing speed and agility on the track.

Two for three with a 6/1 gullet shot winner Thursday is just what the Ductor ordered. Time to build momentum. Skip.

Race 5: 1 3/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

#4 The Ginger Wizard (6/1) – This weak field of American fillies looks ripe for a foreign invader. This mare has been steadily progressing across the pond and is a true turf marathoner. She has the upside to beat this group handily.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 140000n4x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Judge Davis (10/1) – This gelding looks almost identical to yesterday’s gullet shot winner. The Conductor is hoping the rail draw produces the same result. He just missed last time at Kentucky Downs closing into a slow pace and looks to get a better setup today. He has a win over this Keeneland turf course and two of his three wins have come at this distance. Let’s make it back to back gullet whacks.

Keeneland Picks Today

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Valley View Stakes

#1 Opera Mundi (8/1) – Call the Conductor Benedict Arnold, but he’s turning to another European shipper here. #12 Simply in Front (8/1) really impressed him last time, but looks to get a poor trip today drawn to the far outside. Opera Mundi is exiting sprint races in France and has the early speed to put herself in a good position early. The Conductor thinks this is an evenly matched group and sees her sitting a dream pocket trip. In turf racing, that makes all the difference. Skip.

Keeneland Thursday Picks — October 24, 2024 | Best Bets & Handicapping Analysis

Horses racing on a track in front of a grandstand at Keeneland during sunset.

Only a 3rd with the bombs Thursday at Keeneland. There’s a little more meat on the bone today. Time to eat. Skip.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Mdn 100k

#4 Viable (6/1) – This filly took a nice step forward last time, closing strongly behind a slow pace. She’s been trying different distances and surfaces and finally put it all together. If she improves at all this start, the Conductor thinks she’ll be tough to beat. He’s betting against the heavy favorite, #6 Save Time (6/5), who has proven she doesn’t like to win.

Race 7: 1 1/8 Mile. OC 125000n2x

#3 Star of Wonder (7/5) – While the Conductor respects #2 Society Man (3/1), his deep closing running style doesn’t suit this race. Star of Wonder will be up close to a moderate pace and the Conductor doesn’t see anyone passing her down the stretch. Brad Cox will continue making a mockery of this Keeneland meet.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 140000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 All I Want Is You (10/1) – This filly won at 5/1 last time she ran this distance at Keeneland. She’s rounding back into form and her last race was better than it looks on paper. She closed strongly behind a slow pace and ran a big late pace figure. All I Want is You gets a nice rail draw today and she should have the pace to run at. She’ll be flying down the stretch and the Conductor will be screaming for her to get up in time. Let’s have a Thursday, passengers.

Keeneland picks today

Keeneland Wednesday Picks — October 23, 2024 | Best Bets & Final Week Analysis

A steam locomotive surrounded by a herd of horses, showcasing a dynamic scene of transportation and nature.

We left off Friday with a nice 8/1 gullet shot winner. The Conductor got a well deserved break this weekend and has come back refreshed and ready to fire. It’s the final week of the Keeneland meet, leave no stone unturned. Skip.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 32000

#7 Huge Bigly (12/1) – This gelding showed signs of rounding back into form last time. He ran a strong late pace figure while wide behind a slow pace. There will be plenty of early speed for him to run at today and he looks to get an ideal trip. Huge Bigly is 1/1 at Keeneland and his speed figures fit with this group. At double digit odds, he’ll be the Conductor’s key in the 4th race.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 One Front War (6/1) – This filly took money in her turf debut last time at Kentucky Downs. She had no shot from the 11 post that day, hung wide behind a slow pace. She ran better than it looks on paper and finished well down the stretch. Now drawn well and stretching out to a route for the first time, One Front War looks primed to explode. She’s bred to mow.

Keeneland picks today

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 140000b

#6 Mischievous Rogue (8/1) – This gelding won a stakes race convincingly at Hawthorne two back and failed as the favorite last time at Kentucky Downs. He didn’t have a fair chance last race, hung wide while Arrest Me Red set a slow pace and went gate to wire. This race will have a wicked early pace and Mischievous Rogue should get an ideal stalking trip. Over 4/1 would be fair for the Conductor.

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 The Pony Conductor

The Pegasus World Cup is here and the Conductor is ready to fire. He hasn't liked a card at Gulfstream this much maybe ever. Don't listen to this if you haven't signed up at Iron Bets yet with this link. You're not allowed. Skip.
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