Month: March 2024

Gulfstream Park Sunday Picks — March 10, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

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Gulfstream Park Picks

This sport is in such a bad spot it’s scary. Tote board malfunctions cost players who were alive to big money yesterday at Tampa, Gulfstream and across the country. Horse racing has the potential to be the greatest gambling game in the world, but it needs to be completely overhauled. It is crumbling right before our eyes. Incompetent, greedy old leadership needs to go. Don’t bet this shit. Skip.

Race 6: 6½ Furlongs. OC 25000n1

#4 Turbo (4/1) – This colt is entering this race off a year layoff, but fired a winning race for this level off a similar break last year. He’s working well and there no other early speed in this field. He should get an ideal trip setting a moderate pace or pressing the favorite, #1 Madaket’s Arrow (9/5), if they send her from the rail.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. (All-Weather) OC 25000n1x

#9 Patou Road (4/1) – This gelding ran a game 2nd over this Gulfstream synthetic surface last time. Now 2nd off the bench for Chad, he should fire a top effort. The Conductor is happy to play against the favorite, #1 Paramount Prince (8/5), who’s fast synthetic races were at Woodbine. That synthetic track is not the same as Gulfstream’s.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 89k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Streeterville (12/1) – This is a wide open maiden race and the Conductor likes this filly to pop at a price. Her debut sprinting at Gulfstream was a clear prep to go longer today. She was taken back early and taught to rate behind horses. Now she stretches out to a mile and gets a nice rail draw. This is also Trainer Thomas Proctor’s specialty. With 40 1st time routers this year, he’s 23% with a +$0.63 ROI. Streeterville will be the key to the Conductor’s day.

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Gulfstream Park Saturday Picks — March 9, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

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Another forgetful Friday at Gulfstream Park. The Conductor wants no part of another rain effected card. The only reason he plays Gulfstream is for the turf races. Whatever, shut up and bet. Skip.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (All-Weather) Clm 16000n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Basketball Jones (8/1) – Moving into a new barn last start, this gelding took a big step forward on the turf. He pressed a hot pace while wide and still hung on for 3rd. Now he drops in class and switches to the Gulfstream all-weather course for the first time. His numbers on synthetic at Woodbine fit with this group and there isn’t much other early speed in here. 5/1 or better would be great value for the Conductor.

Gulfstream Park Picks

Race 9: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) Silks Run Stakes

#6 Kanthari (4/1) – The Conductor is happy to play against #2 Big Invasion (7/5) today. He’s clearly the class of the field, but he’s making his 1st start of the year and it’s very tough to close and win going 5-furlongs over this Gulfstream turf course. Plus, the Conductor wouldn’t trust Rosario to give him a good ride these days either. Kanthari dominated on the front end off the bench last time and the Conductor sees the same scenario playing out here. She’s the quickest early and if she improves off that last effort than this race is over.

Race 10: 6½ Furlongs. F.G3 Hurricane Bertie Stakes

#7 Libban (12/1) – This filly ran better than it looks like on paper routing last time. She pressed a quick pace between horses and rightfully tired late. Now Saffie Joseph cuts her back in distance, where she’s clearly her best. She’s 3/4 with a 2nd in one turn races and has won at this distance at Gulfstream before. Her numbers sprinting fit with this group and she looks to get a beautiful outside stalking trip. Today’s her day.

Gulfstream Park Friday Picks — March 8, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

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The rain was worse the Conductor expected Thursday and another Gulfstream card was ruined. Off the turf again today, the Conductor will try to make due. Skip.

Race 5: 5 Furlongs. (All-Weather) F.Mdn 89k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Caboodle (9/2) – This filly was favored on turf last time and ran well despite a brutal trip. Her debut 2nd on the synthetic two starts back was above par for this level. If she really goes off the 2nd or 3rd choice today, she is the value. She is the most likely winner and the Conductor is hoping for 3/1 or better.

Gulfstream Park Picks

Race 8: 7½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.OC 20000n1x

#6 Tap Gold (6/1) – The Conductor likes this gelding quite a bit after scratches. There is absolutely no other early pace in this race and Tap Gold has wired the field over this Gulfstream all-weather surface in 3 of his last 4 starts. He’s stepping up in class today, but this is a weak state-bred field and the contenders would prefer for this race to be run on turf.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (All-Weather) F.Mdn 89k

#3 Jessamine Hill (5/2) – This filly’s debut over this Gulfstream surface and distance was impressive. She broke slow and circled the field from last, closing for 2nd behind a slow pace and gate to wire winner. She should step forward with that race under her belt and will be the 2nd choice behind the Chad Brown favorite today. The Conductor is happy to play against favorites trying a new surface for the first time.

Gulfstream Park Thursday Picks — March 7, 2024 | Best Bets & Turf Card Handicapping

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Gulfstream Park Picks

We’ve moved on from last week with a little less coal. Wednesday’s card is too poor to play at Gulfstream, especially with the races being rained off the turf. Thursday’s forecast and races look much more enticing. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) OClm 35000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 Tartufo (10/1) – This horse was miles the best last time when connections moved him to this firm Gulfstream turf course. He had a wide trip the whole way around and blew by the favorite, who looked like he was home free late in the stretch. Tartufo steps up in class today, but their aren’t any monsters in here and he should get a quick pace up front to run at. Plus, he only has 4 turf starts under his belt even though his breeding screams that he would prefer to mow. He has upside to improve on the lawn even this late in his career.

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Race 7: 7 Furlongs. Clm 25000n2L

#6 Leslie Chow (6/1) – This gelding’s last race over the turf at Gulfstream was by far the fastest last race in the field. He’s spent most of his career running on synthetic, but his pedigree says the dirt will be no problem. 1st off the claim, he’s working well for the Jose Hernandez, who is 8/47 with a +$0.67 ROI this year. Paco Lopez also takes the mount for a small barn he’s yet to ride for, which is a positive sign.

Race 9: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 75000n1x

#8 Quimichis (10/1) – This filly has significantly outrun her odds in her last two starts. Last time over the synthetic, she stumbled at the start and still rallied from last to pick up 4th going 5-furlongs. Two back over this Gulfstream turf surface and distance, she had to steady entering the stretch but still re-rallied after losing momentum. She’ll be a big price again today and she is dangerous with a clean trip. The Conductor is expecting her to at least hit the board.

Gulfstream Park Sunday Picks — March 3, 2024 | Best Bets & Post-Fountain of Youth Analysis

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Keeneland

0/2 with two scratches made for an annoying Saturday at Gulfstream. Lol at 3 of the 4 contenders scratching in the Fountain of Youth as well. It’s hard to support a game that is run so incompetently. The Conductor is so sick of Florida and is dreaming of the spring when turf racing returns in Kentucky and New York. Shut up and bet. Skip.

Gulfstream Park Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 25000n1x

#9 Euphima (6/1) – This mare took a big step forward moving to the Gulfstream turf for the first time last start. She set a scorching early pace and was game on the inside despite being tired late. Now shortening in distance she’ll have more left in the tank, especially when she’s clicking off slower fractions early. The Conductor thinks she’s found her new home mowing.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) OC 25000n1x

#3 Sir London (8/1) – This gelding has shown talent on dirt in his career, even though he’s bred for the turf. They finally tried the grass after moving him to the Motion barn last fall and he ran well. He pressed a quick early pace vs a strong Keeneland field and was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths. He’s been gelded since and returns off the bench with a nice inside draw. Motion is 19% with a +$0.31 ROI with runners off 90+ day breaks, so the layoff doesn’t concern the Conductor.

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 89k

*Gullet Shot of the Day Jessamine Hill (9/2) – This filly’s debut over the synthetic last time was very impressive. She broke slow and rallied from last behind a slow pace with a gate to wire winner. She’s bred to love the turf and now moves to the lawn in her 2nd career start. If she really goes off north of 4/1, the Conductor will throw his back out shoveling coal through the windows.

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Gulfstream Park Saturday Picks — Herecomesthebride Stakes Day (March 2, 2024) | Best Bets

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Gulfstream Park Fountain of Youth Stakes

0/3 Friday, but Xy Speed did run a good 3rd at 20/1. Hopefully some of you passengers were able to cash a nice trifecta in that race. We have an outstanding betting card at Gulfstream ahead of us on Saturday, let’s make it one to remember. Skip.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Herecomesthebride Stakes

#10 Agra (20/1) – This filly showed talent on debut, sprinting on turf in New York last fall. She’s shipped down to Gulfstream this winter and has run two good races over synthetic since. Her last race was much better than it looks on paper too. She fought Bravo the entire 1st turn as he tried to rate her and she still made an eye-catching wide move on the turn. Mott took the blinkers off her after that race and she has a solid work tab entering today. If she can relax with the blinkers off and a new rider, she has the upside to take a major step forward here.  Agra can surprise this field at a big number.

Race 11: 1 Mile. G2 Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes

#4 Il Miracolo (9/2) – The Conductor thinks this is the only horse in the field that can beat #5 Tumbarumba. His races last fall were fast enough to win this race and he ran better than it looks in the Pegasus last time off the bench. He was up close and wide to a scorching pace and rightfully tired late. That race was against a much tougher group and looks to set him up perfectly for the cutback to a mile today. The Conductor sees him running a career best effort here and that would make him tough to beat.

Race 12: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) G3 Canadian Turf Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Saratoga Flash (12/1) – This gelding is exiting two races with no chance trips on synthetic and is now switching back to his preferred turf surface. Most importantly, there is absolutely no other early pace in this race. He does his best running over this Gulfstream turf course and he’ll be all alone on the front end setting moderate fractions. This is a weak Grade 3 field and the Conductor doesn’t see this Saffie Joseph runner fading down the stretch. Gate to wire. Skip.

Gulfstream Park Picks - Fountain of Youth Stakes

Race 14: 1 1/16 Mile. G2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes

#8 Locked (5/2) – This colt’s closing kick is no joke and there looks to be plenty of early pace for him to run at in Saturday’s feature. The Conductor sees him winning easy and stamping himself as a serious Derby contender.

Gulfstream Park Friday Picks — March 1, 2024 | Best Bets & Turf Card Handicapping

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Gulfstream Park Picks

1/3 Thursday with a 7/2 winner at Gulfstream put us slightly in the green. There is still plenty of work still to be done and the Conductor will spend his Friday watching replays for tomorrow’s card. Time to stack more coal. Skip.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 35000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Chantry Flats (8/1) – This old gelding took a big step forward last time in his 1st start with the Jeff Hiles barn. He pressed a hot pace going longer on synthetic and still held on for 4th, only beaten by 2 lengths. Now he drops back to the claiming ranks, shortens in distance and switches back to turf. He has 4 career wins mowing, including one at this distance. In his 2nd start off the bench today, he’ll be fit and looks to get a favorable trip up close or setting a moderate pace.

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Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (All-Weather) F.OClm 35000

#7 Warda (9/2) – This filly has the fastest speed figure in the field over this surface. Two starts back she blitzed a maiden field sprinting over this Gulfstream synthetic course. She then stepped up to this level last time, where she was bumped at the start and still showed speed before fading. The market loved her that day and hammered her at the windows.. That effort can be excused. Today we’ll get at least 3x the price and she has the same likelihood of beating this bunch.

Race 8: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500b

#9 Xy Speed (30/1) – This old gelding ran a nice 2nd last time sprinting behind a gate to wire winner. He’s a Gulfstream turf sprint specialist and always runs his race. The step up in class today may be too tough an ask to win, but his figures fit with this group. The Conductor doesn’t see any reason why he won’t run well and hit the board here. If he’s anywhere close to this morning line, he’ll add plenty of value to this race.