July 2024 - The Conductor's Scroll

Saratoga Wednesday Picks — July 31, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

on July 31, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

Four racehorses galloping on a dirt track during a competitive horse race, showcasing speed and athleticism.

A 7/2 winner and a 7/1 2nd by a nose Sunday at Saratoga left the Conductor in the black, but also in pain. He thought Our Shot was going to get there up up the rail. With a rainy forecast this week, the cards will be dicey. We’re on the turf for today for now, so let’s take advantage while we can. Let’s Ride.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.MC 40000

#3 Braca (15/1) – This is a weak maiden claiming race and a good opportunity to take a shot with a bomb. Braca has run some solid races on dirt vs similar and now will try turf for the 1st time. His breeding suggests he’ll move forward on the turf and the Conductor likes that trainer Oscar Barrera has a plan to switch surfaces 1st off the claim. With a nice inside draw and Dylan Davis hopping aboard, the Conductor thinks Braca is live on the lawn.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.S.Mdn 90k

#11 Mangetsu (10/1) – The Conductor is praying this filly draws into the field. She’s working bullets at Turfway and has strong turf breeding. With 37 1st time turf starters this year, trainer Kelsey Danner is winning at a 14% clip with an enormous +$4.44 ROI. Double digit odds would make her a mandatory play for any smart passenger.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.De La Rose Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Be My Sunshine (10/1) – The Conductor likes this filly at a nice price in the feature race. She ran better than it looks last time, closing in a stakes race at Churchill with a merry go round flow. Now shortening to her best distance and Jose Ortiz hopping aboard, she looks poised to run her best today. There aren’t any monsters in this field and she will be flying late with a clean trip. She can certainly brighten the Conductor’s day.

Saratoga Sunday Picks — July 28, 2024 | Best Bets & Post-Jim Dandy Analysis

on July 28, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A racehorse galloping with a jockey in red silks, showcasing speed and power during a horse race.

What a Saturday of racing at Saratoga. Fierceness fends off Sierra Leone in the Jim Dandy and every race seemed to come down to the wire. Unfortunately, Navy Seal and Satin Blue settling for 2nd kept us from having an overflowing coal supply. We still have to work on Sunday. Skip.

Race 4: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.Alw 95000n1x

#6 Fancypants Julliana (7/2) – This filly has outrun her odds in all three of her turf races this year. She’s had poor trips in all three starts and hast still managed to get 2nd or 3rd. She finally gets a major rider upgrade to Prat today and looks to get a perfect trip. This race will have a hot pace and she can sit behind horses and pounce entering the stretch. If Fancypants Julliana doesn’t win today, the Conductor will be forced to retire from betting her.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 80000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Our Shot (10/1) = This colt showed the Conductor he’s a serious turf sprinter with his effort in the Grade 2 Shakertown Stakes at Keeneland three starts back. He made a massive 5-wide move on the turn and sustained his run for 4th. Since then, he’s had a poor start at Aqueduct and a trip from hell last time in a stakes race at Monmouth. In that last race, he was in-between horses chasing the pace 4-wide and should have faded to last as they entered the stretch. However, he showed some serious grit, digging in and refusing to let the horse to his outside pass him. That was a sneaky big effort and now Our Shot should finally get a good trip today. There is plenty of speed in this race and he can save ground and make a big run late. Even if he can’t beat the returning Breeders’ Cup champ, #1 Nobals (4/5), a 1-3 exacta will still pay.

Saratoga Saturday Picks — Vanderbilt Handicap Day (July 27, 2024) | Best Bets & Analysis

on July 27, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

Detailed vintage steam locomotive model showcasing intricate design and craftsmanship, ideal for collectors and enthusiasts of model trains.

Finally a gullet shot winner Friday at Saratoga. The train got the coal injection it needed heading into the weekend. Time to pounce.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. G1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap

#5 Subrogate (7/2) – The Conductor likes this colt’s steady progression. He has improved with each start as a 3-year-old and looks ready to step up in class and take on graded stakes company. Subrogate looks to get an ideal trip sitting just behind a contested pace, and the Conductor is fading the favorite, #6 Skelly (6/5). Skelly has done all his damage at Oaklawn and lost last time at 2/5 when he shipped to Churchill. That race was also versus a weaker group than he faces today.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

*Double Barreled Gullet Shots #3 Mac to Moore (12/1) – The Conductor likes two prices in this competitive maiden race. This filly’s best race came in her debut sprinting on the turf at Gulfstream. Her next two starts were on synthetic and then the slop. Now 2nd off the layoff, she finally returns to sprinting on the turf and gets a favorable post. If she improves at all from her debut, she is a major contender in here.

#6 Satin Blue (10/1) – This filly was well bet in her turf starts last year and didn’t run great with some excuses. Then last time in a race taken off the turf, she showed major improvement closing for 2nd behind a slow pace going 5-furlongs. That was a big step forward from her prior dirt races and now she gets back to the turf like Joe Sharp wants. With 152 starters going dirt to turf this year, Sharp is 25% with a juicy +$0.91 ROI.

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Jim Dandy Stakes

#6 Fierceness (9/5) – Fierceness finally returns after flopping in the Kentucky Derby. He’s a fickle horse but has the most talent in the field. He’s faster then #1 Sierra Leone (1/1) when he runs his best and he should get a better trip than Sierra Leone today over a speed favoring Saratoga dirt course. The Conductor doesn’t think Fierceness needs the lead like many others do. There is other speed to his inside in this race and if Johnny V is patient and sits just behind the leaders, Fierceness will be in the perfect spot. Hopefully all the money he burned in the Derby inflates his price for the Conductor today.

Saratoga Friday Picks — July 26, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

on July 26, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A vintage bus driver in uniform, seated inside a bus, showcasing a thoughtful expression and classic attire.

Dancing Macabre get nailed at the wire Thursday at Saratoga and rips out the Conductor’s soul. If the winners don’t come soon, the Conductor is going to switch to monopoly. Skip.

Race 1: 1 Mile. Clm 16000

#3 Afternoon Heat (10/1) – 2nd off the claim for Jacobson, this gelding exits a game 2nd sprinting at Monmouth last time. Now he adds blinkers and stretches out to a mile. In a race without much early speed, Afternoon Heat will get a favorable trip either on the lead or up close to the pace. Versus a weak field, his speed is extra dangerous.

Race 3: 6½ Furlongs. G2 Amsterdam Stakes

#4 Jefferson Street (8/5) – The lone stakes race on the card is not a great betting race with only a 5-horse field. However, this gelding can provide value as a single if he’s a lukewarm favorite in a competitive field on paper. The Conductor sees other horses taking money in here and thinks this colt is a cut above. The turn of foot he showed over this Saratoga dirt last time was very impressive. Jefferson Street is serious graded stakes caliber sprinter.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Surveillance (6/1) – 2nd of the claim for Maker, this gelding has been running formidable figures on the dirt at Churchill. Now, Maker switches him to the surface he’s bred for. Surveillance has a win on turf in his career, although he’s done most of his running on dirt. Maker’s horses always seem to improve switching to turf and it makes a lot of sense that this gelding will too. Maker and Jose won with a horse at 5/1 Wednesday at Saratoga with the exact same dirt to turf move.

Saratoga Thursday Picks — July 25, 2024 | Best Bets & Turf Card Handicapping

on July 25, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A racehorse galloping on a green track with a jockey in colorful attire, showcasing speed and athleticism during a horse race.

Another frustrating Wednesday at the track. We’re close, but Saratoga keeps slipping out of the Conductor’s grasp. Three turf plays today. Skip.

Race 3: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

#5 Justdeny (8/1) – This filly broke her maiden impressively last time at this distance. She was 4-wide uncovered on the 1st turn, then 2-wide and covered on the 2nd and 3rd turns. She won easily and galloped out full of energy. In a race with mediocre favorites today, the Conductor thinks Justdeny can step up in class and win.

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.G3 Caress Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Danse Macabre (10/1) – This filly has yet to run a bad race in her career. She has hit the board in every start and should get a good trip today with a hot pace in front of her. Her races last year fit with this group and her bullet works at Turfway suggest she’s ready to roll off the bench. Danse Macabre is a major underlay at double digit odds.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.MC 40000

#1 Tiz a Prince (15/1) – The Conductor will give Romero Maragh another try after a poor ride yesterday in the finale. This colt ran better than it looks last time with a bad trip. He was bumped hard at start, 3-wide covered on the 1st turn and forced 4-wide on the 2nd turn. Now dropping in class 3rd off the layoff for trainer David Duggan, he should get a favorable ground saving trip from the inside post. Tiz a Prince is live in this wide open race.

https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/ponyconductor/embed/episodes/Saratoga-Preview-for-Thursday-7252024-e2meh3l

Saratoga Wednesday Picks — July 24, 2024 | Best Bets & Turf Card Handicapping

on July 24, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A dynamic image of thoroughbred horses racing on a dirt track, showcasing jockeys in colorful silks during a competitive event.

On the turf for now at Saratoga to start the racing week. That puts the Conductor in a good mood after a frustrating Sunday. But nobody cares your mood Mr. Ductor. Shut up and give us winners. Skip.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 50000n2L

#4 Image of Quality (15/1) – The Conductor thinks this gelding is a live longshot in this race. He’s only had three turf starts in his career and they have all been sprinting. Now 2nd off the layoff, he drops in class and stretches out to a route for the first time. This race is devoid of any other speed and Image of Quality may carry his speed further than the public thinks. He’ll set slower fractions than he’s used to and the NYRA jockeys may wait to long to put pressure on him like they’re known to do. He’s a wildcard that could wire this field.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.G2 Honorable Miss Handicap

#4 Clearly Unhinged (5/1) – This filly’s best race came last year at Saratoga in the Test, where she ran a game 2nd. She’s moved into the Assmusen barn this year and he has her sharp cutting her back to shorter sprint distances. She has the early speed to work out a favorable trip in here and looks to be her best at 6-furlongs. Clearly Unhinged is certainly worth a win bet north of 4/1.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.S.MC 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Lu’s Redemption (4/1) – Making her 3rd start off the layoff, this filly drops to the claiming ranks for the 1st time. She ran much better than it looks last time vs tougher too. She was 3-wide into the first turn, uncovered on the backstretch, and made a nice 3-wide move on the 2nd turn. Lu’s Redemption looks primed to run a career best effort today and the Conductor sees her getting her picture taken at a square price.

Saratoga Sunday Picks — July 21, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

on July 21, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

An elderly man in a suit and hat stands beside a horse, showcasing a bond between human and animal in a classic black and white setting.

0/2 with a scratch yesterday at Saratoga. It’s mandatory we make some coal today. The Conductor demands it. Let’s Ride.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 40000n2L

#6 Musical Maestro (4/1) – This gelding took a big step forward in his 1st turf start last time. He was fanned 4-wide the entire turn and a bump late in the stretch cost him 2nd. He was probably best in that race and he gets a more favorable post today. 4/1 would be a fair price on Musical Maestro.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Mdn 100k

#1 Yesterday (8/1) – The Conductor will try again with another George Weaver 1st time starter routing on the turf. Hopefully, she behaves herself pre-race, unlike the one Saturday. She has the best turf breeding in the field and should get a nice ground saving trip. Weaver is 15% with a +$1.71 ROI with 1st time turf starters this year.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Alw 95000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Roagna (6/1) – This filly is lightly raced and has the most upside in this wide open state-bred allowance field. She showed her talent winning on debut last year and has run better than it looks with poor trips in 2024. In her last race from post 10, she made a nice 5-wide move before rightfully flattening late. Now drawn to the inside for the first time in her career, she should get a favorable ground saving trip. The Conductor’s Sunday night supper will depend on Roagna.

Saratoga Saturday Picks — Haskell Day & Del Mar Opening (July 20, 2024) | Best Bets

on July 20, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A thoroughbred racehorse galloping on a racetrack, showcasing speed and athleticism, with a jockey in colorful attire riding it.

Goose egg Friday at Saratoga is not what the Conductor ordered. Frustrating, but there is no crying in horse racing. Plenty of opportunities on today’s card and across the country. It’s Haskell Day at Monmouth and opening day at Del Mar. The coal is there for the taking, so shut up and grab a shovel. Let’s have a day. Skip.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 100k

#1 Insubordination (12/1) – This colt is well bred for routing on the turf. Trainer George Weaver is also 15% this year with a +$1.71 ROI debuting horses on the lawn. Add a strong work tab with a favorable inside post, Insubordination looks ready to roll.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L

#4 Bonne Chance (12/1) – This is a wide open claiming race and the Conductor likes this gelding to fire at a big price. He broke is maiden impressively last year at Saratoga, winning by 5 lengths on debut. He then went off form in some sloppy races and they gave him a break. He ran well off a 6 month layoff last time, closing for 3rd behind a slow pace. Bonne Chance should move forward off that effort and is dangerous returning to his favorite race track.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.G3 Lake George Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Gavea (15/1) – This filly showed real talent last year, beating a quality stakes horse, Mo Fox Givin, in her US debut. She returned off the bench this year and ran a quality 3rd pressing the pace going 1 1/8 mile. The winner of that race, Pin Up Petty, has run back and flattered that effort. Now Gavea cuts back to her best distance in her 2nd start off the layoff. She gets a nice inside draw and a rider upgrade to Brian Hernandez. Gavea is going to fire a big effort at a juicy number.

Saratoga Friday Picks — July 19, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

on July 19, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 3 Comments

Thoroughbred horses racing on a dirt track with jockeys in colorful silks, showcasing speed and competition during a horse race.

1/3 Thursday with a 5/1 winner at Saratoga. Solid, but the Conductor wants more. The caboose should be overflowing with coal. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. S.Mdn 90k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Joker On Fire (6/1) – Castellano was aboard a live 1st timer, Brown Eyed Cat, for Levine on opening day. Brown Eyed Cat missed the break and still circled the field to win. Joker on Fire reminds the Conductor a lot of that colt. He’s working well and has a bullet 5-furlong gate work leading into his debut. Levine has the strongest 1st time starter stats in this field and this colt is bred to win early. Hopefully we don’t have to sweat a poor break this time.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

#5 Child of the Moon (4/1) – The Conductor is not impressed with this allowance field. This filly is making her US debut today for Chad Brown and makes the most sense. She’s run well vs stakes company in France will likely destroy this weak group. With a good post and Prat aboard, she’ll get a favorable trip as well.

#9 Epic Miss Justice (12/1) – There is one longshot that intrigues the Conductor in here. This filly broke her maiden nicely last year going this distance at Saratoga. She closed behind a slow pace and lit up the tote at 22/1. She came back off a year layoff last time sprinting at Aqueduct. That race was a clear prep for today, as Mott stretches her back out to her preferred distance. She has upside making just her 2nd start as a 4-year-old.

Saratoga Thursday Picks — July 18, 2024 | Best Bets & Turf Card Handicapping

on July 18, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A man in a beige suit walking along railway tracks beside a vintage train at a station surrounded by greenery.

Back on the turf today after a forgetful Wednesday at Saratoga. The Conductor is ready to attack this card. Let’s Ride.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) New York Stallion Series Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Six Fortyfive (8/1) – The Conductor really liked this gelding’s effort last time off a year layoff. It was his first time routing on turf and he ran well with a terrible trip. He chased the pace 3-wide and uncovered around both turns and still got up for 2nd, galloping out in front. Six Fortyfive should take a big step forward today and looks to get an ideal ground saving trip. He’ll be the key to the Conductor’s day.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

#2 Abientot (9/2) – This filly ran much better than it looks in her debut, chasing the pace while 4-wide. She never quit and ran well to hang on for 4th. Now drawn to the inside, she’ll get a much better trip and has major upside. The shorter distance should help her chances as well.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Clm 30000n2L

#9 Surprenant Cocca (9/2) – You can completely ignore this filly’s last race. She had a trip from hell. She was wide and uncovered the entire way and moved early into a quick pace. In her race two back at Aqueduct, she ran well despite encountering trouble. Surprenant Cocca had to avoid a horse checking sharply in front of her and still made a nice wide move on the turn. Now taking a big class drop today at Saratoga, the Conductor thinks she’s the one to beat. Her form is much better than it looks on paper.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.MC 40000

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.S.Mdn 90k

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.De La Rose Stakes

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

Race 4: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.Alw 95000n1x

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 80000b

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. G1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Jim Dandy Stakes

Race 1: 1 Mile. Clm 16000

Race 3: 6½ Furlongs. G2 Amsterdam Stakes

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

Race 3: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.G3 Caress Stakes

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.MC 40000

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 50000n2L

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.G2 Honorable Miss Handicap

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.S.MC 40000

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 40000n2L

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Mdn 100k

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Alw 95000n1x

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 100k

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.G3 Lake George Stakes

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. S.Mdn 90k

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) New York Stallion Series Stakes

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Clm 30000n2L

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor