Month: July 2024

Saratoga Wednesday Picks — July 17, 2024 | Best Bets & Week 2 Handicapping

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Large crowd gathered at an outdoor event with grandstands and trees in the background, showcasing a lively atmosphere.

Another solid 4/1 winner Sunday with Itza Mirrakle getting the job done. We keep grinding out positive days, but Saratoga’s gullet has proved elusive thus far. Let’s start week 2 off strong. Skip.

Race 2: 1 1/8 Mile. F.Mdn 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Refuse to Lose (4/1) – Similar to Itza Mirrakle, this filly is exiting a sold closing 2nd sprinting on the Saratoga dirt. She has upside stretching out to a route for the first time and this is trainer Horacio De Paz’s signature move. With 22 starters this year going two sprints to a route, he’s winning at a 32% clip with +$3.15 ROI. In a race where the two favorites will be significant underlays, the Conductor likes Refuse to Lose quite a bit.

Saratoga picks today

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.New York Stallion Series

#2 Sohana (6/1) – This filly got a favorable ground saving trip last time in her first turf start. However, she was too far back behind a slow pace to really have any chance. She made up a bit of ground in the stretch and the Conductor thinks she’ll like the added distance. Brad Cox is predictably strong with 1st time routers, she’ll get another great trip with an inside post and Prat aboard. Over 4/1 would be a fair price on Sohana.

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

The Pegasus World Cup is here and the Conductor is ready to fire. He hasn't liked a card at Gulfstream this much maybe ever. Don't listen to this if you haven't signed up at Iron Bets yet with this link. You're not allowed. Skip.
  1. Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025
  2. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/23/2024
  3. Churchill and Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/16/2024

Saratoga Sunday Picks — July 14, 2024 | Best Bets & Post-Diana Stakes Analysis

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Black and white portrait of an elderly train conductor wearing a cap and uniform, showcasing a serious expression against a train backdrop.

Taking Candy was a nice 5/1 winner Saturday at Saratoga. However, the Conductor needed a stiff stew and a cigarette after Prat and Whitebeam stole the Diana from Moira on the front end. Nothing he can do now but take his anger out on Sunday’s card. Saratoga will atone.

Race 5: 1 1/8 Mile. Mdn 100k

#3 Itza Mirrakle (4/1) – The Conductor is against the two favorites in this race. Itza Mirrakle ran a strong closing 2nd going 7-furlongs over a speed favoring Saratoga track on debut. The winner of that race, Illuminare, came back to win impressively in an allowance race yesterday. Now Itza Mirrakle stretches out to a route for the first time and looks to get an ideal trip. He’ll be up close to a moderate pace and has major upside.

#6 Trulli Warrior (6/1) – Exiting that same sprint race, the Conductor likes the “other” Pletcher in this spot. He was well bet on debut and had a no chance trip chasing the pace while force wide. He has early speed and is dangerous making his first start going two turns.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Coif (10/1) – The Cherie DeVaux entry #1/1A look took tough to beat in this race. However, the Conductor thinks Coif has the upside to inject value here, even if she runs 2nd. In her first race on turf last time, she had a terrible trip. She chased the pace 3-wide and uncovered around both turns before rightfully tiring late. Now she draws a nice inside post and gets Prat in the saddle. Coif is guaranteed to get a ground saving trip and should take a big step forward off that last effort. Chad Brown is a ridiculous 34% with 38 2nd time routers this year.

Saratoga picks today

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

The Pegasus World Cup is here and the Conductor is ready to fire. He hasn't liked a card at Gulfstream this much maybe ever. Don't listen to this if you haven't signed up at Iron Bets yet with this link. You're not allowed. Skip.
  1. Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025
  2. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/23/2024
  3. Churchill and Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/16/2024

Saratoga Saturday Picks — Diana Stakes Day (July 13, 2024) | Best Bets & Analysis

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An elderly man in a uniform riding a white horse, showcasing equestrian elegance and tradition in a serene outdoor setting.

0/2 Friday at Saratoga for the Conductor. However, he did tout Miss Justify on the podcast. Make sure you passengers listen to that as well every morning. Mr. Ductor always divulges more information on a few additional races there. Regardless, 0/2 is unacceptable and the Conductor is salivating at Saturday’s card. Let’s Ride.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#9 Taking Candy (10/1) – This morning line is crazy, but the Conductor likes two horses in here quite a bit. This colt ran his two best races last year at Saratoga and now returns off the bench for Cherie DeVeux. DeVeaux wins at a 21% clip with runners off 90+ day layoffs and Taking Candy has a solid work tab to boot. His races last year make him a contender vs this field and he should improve making his 1st start as a 4-year-old. The only concern for the Conductor is the 10 post with Lezcano.

#11 Bring Me a Check (15/1) – If Lezcano can’t work out a trip, the Conductor hopes this gelding pays him in cash. 1st off the claim for Maker, he stretches out to a route after two sprint races. The Conductor thinks this is the right move for Bring Me a Check. He ran a good 2nd in a stakes race at this distance at Saratoga last year. Plus, there isn’t much early speed in this race. Franco will have no trouble getting over to the rail or two path going into the first turn. This gelding can light up the tote.

Race 10: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.G1 Diana Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Moira (5/1) – Now this is an awesome stakes race. A full field of quality fillies and mares that all have a chance on paper. However, the Conductor thinks Moira is a cut above this group. She was ultra impressive in the Breeders’ Cup last fall, running 3rd with a troubled trip vs an even tougher field than she faces today. She returns off the bench in a very difficult spot, but her work tab suggests they know she’s ready to roll. Moira will get a favorable ground saving trip, then it’s mow time down the stretch.

Saratoga Picks Diana Stakes

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

The Pegasus World Cup is here and the Conductor is ready to fire. He hasn't liked a card at Gulfstream this much maybe ever. Don't listen to this if you haven't signed up at Iron Bets yet with this link. You're not allowed. Skip.
  1. Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025
  2. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/23/2024
  3. Churchill and Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/16/2024

Saratoga Friday Picks — July 12, 2024 | Best Bets & Day 2 Handicapping

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Portrait of an elderly train conductor wearing a uniform and cap, seated at a wooden table in a train car, exuding a nostalgic charm.

Opening Day at Saratoga is in the books. The Conductor started the meet off nicely with a 5/2 gullet shot winner who missed the break, and a late running 7/1 2nd. NYRA has no choice but to run on the turf Friday. Let’s head into the weekend in style. Skip.

Race 4: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Inflation Nation (6/1) – This gelding showed real ability sprinting on the turf last year, He has a win at this distance at Saratoga and has shown versatility, running well over multiple distances and surfaces. He pressed the pace off the bench last time at Churchill and just tired late. Now 2nd off the layoff, he adds blinkers and has speed in a turf sprint without much early pace. Inflation Nation should have the jump on the field as they turn for home, and the Conductor thinks he’ll be very tough to catch.

Saratoga picks

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. Mdn 80k

#2 Reteko (9/2) – The Conductor is going to try to run back his success Thursday with another 1st time starter with Castellano aboard (please get him out of the gate this time Javier). The Conductor likes this colt’s work tab the best of the bunch. He had a fast 5-furlong work from the gate June 21st, followed by a breeze and a bullet from the gate last time. Tom Morley is only 8% with 1st time starters, but he’s much better at Saratoga than he is elsewhere. While Reteko was a cheap purchase price, 17% of this sire’s babies win on debut. This colt is ready to roll.

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

  1. Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025
  2. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/23/2024

Saratoga Opening Day Picks — Thursday, July 11, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Analysis

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A thoroughbred racehorse with a jockey in red and white attire galloping on a dirt racetrack during a horse race.

Two 2nds north of 10/1 Sunday was a solid way to end the Aqueduct meet. Absolutely nobody cares about that now as the Spa is finally back. 11 race cards on a Thursday make every passenger happy to be back at Saratoga…until the races were taken off the turf. With almost no rain prior to a little bit last night, this is a painful start to the meet. The only reason the Conductor even plays NYRA is for the turf racing. Nobody likes spitting on their customers more than horse racing. Gross start to the meet.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. S.Mdn 90k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Brown Eyed Cat (9/2) – This card stinks now that they’re off the turf, but there are a few horses the Conductor still has his eye on. This colt has two really strong 5-furlong gate works leading into today’s debut. The experienced runners in here haven’t run close to par for this level, and Saratoga 1st-time starters are a dangerous bunch. This is also trainer Bruce Levin’s specialty. With 54 1st-time starters this year, he’s winning at a 20% clip with a +$0.94 ROI. Everything screams that Brown Eyed Cat is ready to fire.

saratoga stakes picks

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.Schuylerville Stakes

#3 Sherbini (9/2) – This filly is one of the few horses in here that has shownshe can pass horses and win. With most of these babies stretching out in distance and vying for the early lead, the Conductor wants to back a filly he knows can finish. She looks to get the exact same pocket trip as she did last time. She’ll sit right behind the speed and make her move entering the stretch. Sherbini showed an impressive turn of foot on debut.

Aqueduct Sunday Picks — July 7, 2024 | Best Bets & Handicapping Analysis

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A vintage steam locomotive with a black and blue exterior, billowing smoke, traveling along railway tracks with passenger cars.

1 for 2 Saturday with a 6/5 winner. Live to play another day. Aqueduct has come to and end and Saratoga is waiting for us. Let’s shut this place down in style. Skip

Race 2: 1 Mile. (Turf) S. Hudson Valley Stakes

#4 Dakota Gold (6/1) – This gelding hasn’t run on a firm turf course in his last 5 starts. The last time he did going 1 mile, he won by open lengths. His effort off the layoff in April was ok. He looked like he needed it and was wide around both turns. Getting back to his best surface and distance today, the Conductor sees him firing a big effort. #1 Spirit of St Louis (1/1) will be tough to beat, but Dakota Gold has upside making his just his 2nd start of the year. He will be a major overlay.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Port Washington Stakes

#3 Lisa’s Vision (15/1) – The Conductor is ignoring her last race in the slop and her prior dirt races last year. She showed real ability prior on the turf and even beat the heavy favorite in this race, #5 Silver Skillet (6/5), going 7 furlongs. She’s won routing before and can take a big step forward today making her 2nd start off he bench with the surface switch. With Franco in the saddle, you know she’ll get a good trip as well.

Race 7: 6½ Furlongs. F.S.Alw 80000n1x

*Gullet shot of the Day #8 Capital Gal (5/1) – There is absolutely no other early speed in this dirt sprint. This mare has some and she looks to get an ideal trip either setting or pressing a slow pace 2-wide. She had a no chance trip on turf last time and her win on dirt two back at Finger Lakes makes her a contender vs this weak Aqueduct group.

aqueduct stakes picks

Aqueduct Saturday Picks — Belmont Derby Invitational (G1) Day, July 6, 2024 | Best Bets

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Elderly man in vintage attire sitting on a stool at a train station, with a historic train in the background.

Again only the heavy chalk wins for the Conductor Friday. We need to get the best of Aqueduct while it lasts. Only two racing days left before the train heads upstate for the rest of the summer. He can’t wait for Saratoga. Skip.

Race 6: 1 3/16 Mile. (Outer Turf) G1 Belmont Derby Invitational

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Royal Majesty (6/1) – The Conductor is heavily against the morning line favorite #5 Endlessly (6/5) in this spot. He’s not a Grade 1 caliber turf horse on the east coast. This morning line is laughable if true. Royal Majesty is steadily progressing and should have beaten #1 Legend of Time (5/2) last time in the Pennine Ridge Stakes. He was sitting a great trip and was ready to explode entering stretch. However, he was boxed in, forced to check, lost momentum and got out too late. The Conductor likes this colt’s steady progression and thinks he’s the most likely winner in a race where he’ll be at least the 3rd choice by the betting public.

Aqueduct stakes picks

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. G2 John A. Nerud Stakes

#5 Mullikin (2/1) – This is an evenly matched 5 horse field on paper, but the Conductor believes you can rely on this colt to get the job done. He’s improved as a 4-year old and there isn’t any other early pace in this field. Mullkin looks to get a perfect trip setting a slow pace or 2-wide pressing, whichever Prat prefers. While there are many solid closers in this Aqueduct stakes, pace makes the race.

Aqueduct Friday Picks — July 5, 2024 | Best Bets & Handicapping Analysis

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A man in a suit walks alongside a horse near vintage train cars, showcasing a historical scene with horses and transportation.

Cloudy stunk, but at least Emory was the lock the Conductor thought she was at a short price Thursday at Aqueduct. Let’s get a few prices home today along with another cinch. Skip.

Race 7: 1 1/8 Mile. OC 62500n2x

# 1 Archie the Giza (5/1) – This gelding’s race two back behind Kingsbarn was good enough to win today. The Conductor will excuse his last effort, where he moved early into a quick pace, at a shorter distance than he prefers. Archie the Giza will like the added distance today and he gets a rider upgrade to the red hot Flavian Prat. The Conductor likes the Churchill shipper vs this average Aqueduct allowance field.

Race 8: 1 3/8 Mile. G2 Brooklyn Stakes

#6 Next (4/5) – Another Churchill shipper, this gelding has been consistent and dominant in his marathon dirt stakes races. Nobody in this field can warm him up and he takes his game wherever he ships. Next is your lock today.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.SMdn 75k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Bobby M’s Girl (12/1) – The Conductor has been waiting for this filly to run back since her debut at Saratoga. She was checked into 1st turn, checked sharply again on the 2nd turn, blocked in stretch and still full of run late. This was a very sneaky big effort that she should improve upon today. The Conductor was hoping she would show up with a new rider aboard, but we’ll be compensated with the price. C’mon Katie Davis give her a fair trip.

Aqueduct picks

Aqueduct Independence Day Picks — Thursday, July 4, 2024 | Best Bets & Handicapping

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Jockey riding a horse while holding an American flag during a race, showcasing equestrian sport and patriotism.

Time to get this train running with Saratoga right around the corner. As we prepare for the upcoming festivities, it’s essential to ensure that all the passengers have a memorable Independence Day celebration at Aqueduct. The Conductor will be back posting every NYRA race day with turf racing through the summer. Let’s start piling the coal. Skip.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. (Outer Turf) OC 80000b

#8 Cloudy (6/1) – This horse has shown versatility in his career, winning at both at 5 1/2 furlongs and 1 mile on the turf. Last time off the bench routing at Aqueduct, he was rank and uncomfortable the entire 1st turn and along backstretch. After expending all that wasted energy early, he didn’t run a terrible race. With that start under his belt, he can run a top effort today if he can relax. The far outside post is the Conductor’s only concern.

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. F.G3 Victory Ride Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Emery (6/5) – The Conductor is hoping this filly is north of even money. Since the #1 and the #5 have formidable speed figures, he thinks it’s possible. This filly broke the Conductor’s jaw with the way she won last time. She floated wide around the turn and moved past some solid horses like they were standing still. Gaffalione didn’t move an inch in the saddle. Cox is shipping this one to Aqueduct to pick up an easy stakes victory before the Saratoga meet. The Conductor hates chalk, but she’s your 4th of July stone cold lock.

Aqueduct stakes picks