Month: July 2023

Rain and off the turf ruined the latter half of Saratoga’s Saturday card for the Conductor. Hit Show was a no show over the slop in the Jim Dandy and Irad got away with another non DQ. NYRA has major issues they need to clean up. Right now, Del Mar is a far superior product. If they don’t have full-field turf racing, the circuit is unplayable. However, the forecast looks good for Sunday, so the Conductor can get back to mowing. Let’s Ride.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 136.5k

#8 Sedona Red (12/1) – This colt ran a very strong 2nd in the slop last time. He’s improved with each start and moves back to the turf for the first time since his debut. He’s bred to mow and will be an overlay at the windows running for a small, low % barn. It’s a positive sign to see Rosario take the mount at Saratoga for an outfit he’s never ridden for as well.

Race 9: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) G2 Bowling Green Stakes

#4 Verstappen (15/1) – #9 Rebel’s Romance (8/5) lays over this field and will likely handle this group with ease. However, the Conductor is still excited to play this race and pair him up with a bomb. Verstappen upset the G2 Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland three starts back at 16/1. He returned off a short break last time and ran a huge late pace figure after being hung wide and far back behind a slow pace. That race sets him up perfectly for this spot and he draws a nice post and gets a rider upgrade. All signs point to a 9/4 cold exacta.

Race 10: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 136.5k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Riviere (7/2) – This filly will be the key to the Conductor’s Saratoga Sunday. He’ll either be cashing all his tickets or having the scariest of Sunday nights. She had heinous trip in her debut pressing 4-wide and uncovered the entire turn. She never quit in the stretch and still finished well. Mr. Ductor put her in his stable to play her when she returned. She’ll graduate today.

It was a great Thursday at Saratoga for the Conductor and us passengers. A 5/1 winner with  7/1 and 12/1 2nds behind favorites was impressive. What an honor it is to ride his train. Let’s get this baby up to full speed and beat those favorites today. Skip.

Race 2: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

*Scratched #2 Surprise Boss (15/1) – This is a wide open turf sprint an the Conductor must mention this bomb. Last time vs Grade 1 company he chased a quick pace 4-wide and uncovered on the turn and rightfully faded. He’s been facing nothing but stakes company recently and drops in class and shortens in distance today. He’s won at this 5 1/2 furlong distance at Saratoga before and will be an overlay with low % connections. He can light up the trifecta.

Race 4: 6½ Furlongs. F. Clm 40000

#7 I’m Buzzy (8/1) – The Conductor doesn’t usually play horses off slop wins. However, if this filly is really 8/1 he’ll take a swing here. She closed strongly while wide last time and has past efforts on a fast dirt track that make her a contender vs this field. She looks to get a perfect trip today stalking a contested lead.

Race 6: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 136.5k

#1 Swore (4/1) – This filly improved stretching out in distance last time. She closed well behind a moderate pace in a race with a merry go round flow. She’ll get a nice ground saving trip on the rail today and mow them all down in the stretch.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 50000n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Aruba (8/1) – This gelding had no shot last time from the 11-post and was hung wide the entire way. Now she draws the rail, drops in class, and stretches out to two turns. Her lone win was at two turns and she has multiple past performances that make her a contender vs this group. Trainer Jorge Abreau is 11/24 with a +$1.07 ROI dropping horses to the claiming ranks for the 1st time this year. All signs point to Aruba firing today.

These 2nds at Saratoga are getting as old as Linda Rice horses re-breaking to win at 3/5. Hopefully Wednesday‘s 11/1 gullet shot gave you passengers a nice exacta. Looks like there are some thunderstorms in the forecast for Thursday, but the Conductor thinks it’s still likely to be on the turf. If it’s a washout, it’s going to be one boring Thursday. No more silver medals. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

#3 Mise En Scene (8/1) – This filly disappointed in the stretch last time, but that was going longer and she’s run plenty of prior races that can beat this group. She has the potential to step forward adding blinkers for the first time and the Conductor likes the rider switch back to McCarthy. 8/1 looks to be a major overlay.

Race 8: 1 3/8 Mile. Birdstone Stakes

#5 Time for Trouble (10/1) – The Conductor is not sure why they keep running this gelding on the turf when he is clearly better on dirt. Last time on dirt at Keeneland he pulled off a 17/1 upset and ran a solid figure. There is going to be a quick early pace in this Marathon and Time for Trouble looks to get a perfect stalking trip. He can inject value into this race even if he runs underneath #7 Next (4/5). He has the potential to win at another big price.

Race 9: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) OC 62500n2x

#5 *Gullet Shot of the Day Good Skate (8/1) – Maker stretched out this gelding on the turf last time and he ran better than it looks with a no chance trip. He was rank and 3-wide going into the first turn and expended a ton of energy early. He still ran evenly that day and now gets a 2nd chance going long on the turf at Saratoga in his 2nd start off the bench. With a turf rider upgrade to Irad as well, all signs point to a big effort.

Saratoga continues to torcher the Conductor with two brutal 2nds at 7/2 and 15/1 Sunday. Mr. Ductor doesn’t play this game for 2nds. He wants his picture taken and the train needs more coal fast. Week 3 starts now. Skip.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 35000n2L

#3 Watasha (6/1) – This gelding stretched out to a route for the first time last start for Maker. He got a good setup after steadying at the start that day, but still made nice little 3-wide uncovered move on the turn. He was claimed out of that race by the scorching hot Linda Rice barn, and she drops him in class to take on weaker today. Watasha draws a nice inside post and will obviously step forward for Linda.

Race 9: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 149500n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #11 Anatolian (6/1) – The Conductor is hoping this filly draws in, we only need one scratch. She ran a very strong 2nd two starts back and then “failed” as the favorite last time over a yielding turf course. The Conductor found the tape of that race very interesting. She had a good trip, but Irad pump faked the whip the entire stretch. This was a possible stiff job and something didn’t seem right. She’ll get back to firm turf today and the connections may have been waiting for her to get a win at Saratoga. You can’t sneak her by Mr. Ductor.

Race 10: 1 1/6 Mile. (Turf) S.MC 40000

#12 Waflr (10/1) – This gelding may not be good enough, but the Conductor has to mention him to the passengers. Last time sprinting he was well back sprinting behind a slow pace and had a mammoth gallop out. That race was a clear prep to stretch him back out to two turns today and he’ll take a big step forward in his 3rd career start. He’ll easily be double digit odds and has upside.

A 2nd, 3rd, and chalk winner Saturday at Saratoga teased the Conductor. He’s seeing the ball well, he just hasn’t connected with a big price to crush toga at the windows yet. Keep the head down, keep capping hard, and the dam will break soon. Skip.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.OC 45000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Fontanafredda (5/1) – This filly chased a quick pace wide vs much tougher last time. She drops in class to face state breds today and shortens back to her best distance. She won at 14/1 in a very similar scenario shipping in from Belmont last summer. She’s yet to miss the board over this Saratoga turf course and Castellano hops back aboard, who’s ridden her best. All signs point to her running her best in this spot, and her best can beat this group at a square price.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 136.5k

#4 Colonial Rose (8/1) – This filly has a very nice work tab at Churchill and a quick gate work at Saratoga to boot. The Conductor requires at least one work at this unique track for him to consider an out of town 1st time starter. Trainer Albert Stall Jr. is only 11% with 1st time starters, but with a juicy +$0.58 ROI. Also, 40% of his 1st time starters hit the board. The Conductor can smell that this filly is live.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. S.OC 45000n2x

#4 Andiamo a Firenze (5/1) – This colt has been facing nothing but stakes company since his win on debut. He’s had a bit of a break since he’s moved into the red hot David Carlos barn, and he’s been working well down at Monmouth. Carlos is 22% with a ridiculous +$2.90 ROI with runners moving to his barn to the first time this year. Irad won at 7/1 in his only other mount for this barn this Saratoga meet too.

Well, we they could have run just fine on the turf Friday. There wasn’t a drop of rain all day. The Conductor’s frustration is growing. He wants full turf fields an quality prices please. Pony gods shape up. Saratoga only comes once a year. Onto Saturday. Skip.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.G3 Caress Stakes

#5 Wakanaka (8/1) – Only a 5-horse field isn’t ideal, but the Conductor likes the longest shot on the board. This mare looks to be rounding into form making her 3rd start off the layoff and ran sneaky well last time. She was hung 4-wide on the turn and grinded out a solid 3rd vs classy competition. She has a major class edge of this field, and although the Conductor doesn’t like the turnback on turf much, she’s 2 for 3 with a 2nd at today’s distance. She’ll be mowing down the stretch and get the train into high gear.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) OC 62500n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Mercante (10/1) – The Chad Brown entry probably wins this race. However, we can still extract value when the Conductor only likes one other horse.  This colt made just his 2nd turf start last time going 1 1/8 mile and took another step forward. He pressed 3-wide uncovered on both turns and was still only beaten by one length. The Conductor likes the shorter distance for him today and that he has experience going two turns. Many of the other contenders in here are exiting one turn Belmont races. Mr. Ductor will be screaming for him to pull off the upset, but if not 1/8 exacta will do.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. Alw 149500n1x

#8 Accretive (8/5) – The Conductor hates to give out chalk, but this Saturday card is slim pickings. Mr. Ductor was very impressed with this gelding’s Amsterdam performance at Saratoga last summer. He lays over this field on talent and looks to be working well for Chad Brown off the bench. Sometimes you need to take the free square and move along. Skip

Only one short priced winner Thursday isn’t going to pay the Conductor’s coal bill. We need to get the train humming at Saratoga soon. With scattered storms on the radar, Friday may not be the day. If the races stay on the turf however, then the Conductor has a few spot plays up his sleeve. Let’s Ride.

Race 4: 1 1/8 Mile. Curlin Stakes

#2 Lost Ark (4/1) – This colt showed real talent last summer before getting thrust up against G1 company. He retuned off the bench last time for Pletcher and won nicely. There is no early speed in this race and the Conductor likes that he’s exiting a race with a quick early pace. Irad will either go to the lead or press a slow pace and have the jump on the closers as they turn for home. 4/1 would be more than fair in just a 5 horse stakes field.

Race 6: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) Alw 149500n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Danzigwiththestars (8/1) – This gelding will be the key to the Conductor’s Friday. This is a wide open allowance race and only the strong will make a stand. Danzigwiththestars is making his 3rd start off the layoff and stretching out off a sneaky strong effort going a mile last time. He was floated 4-wide early on the turn and sustained his move for much longer than he should have. He ran a strong late pace figure too. Now he draws well to the inside and gets to mow the Saratoga lawn that he loves . All three of his career wins have come at the Spa and he’s not done yet. Skip.

Damn, 0/2 with two complete no shows Wednesday has the Conductor scratching his head to start week 2 at Saratoga. You need a goldfish memory in this game and we’re already onto the next card. Nothing like a nice hole to start the week. Skip.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 50000s

#5 Highly Flammable (3/1) – This gelding drew the 9 post last time and pressed 3-wide uncovered the entire turn. He still was right there when the hit the wire and got the bronze medal even though he was best. With a much better post and shortening half a furlong today, he’ll take the podium this time.

#4 War Terminator (15/1) – The Conductor thinks we can spice up this trifecta with a bomb underneath too. This gelding also pressed 3-wide uncovered the entire way in his last start from the 9 hole. He’ll benefit from a better post and the shorter Saratoga sprint distance. Contessa’s starters have been running sneaky well lately.

Race 4: 1 Mile. F.Clm 32000

#2 With This Vow (3/1) – This mare ran huge on the turf last start, off the bench for the Dutrow barn. She had a bad turf trip pressing 3-wide uncovered the entire turn and still ran 2nd. She stretches out on dirt today and will be all alone on the lead. With a speed favoring Saratoga dirt track, she’ll be tough for the favorite #3 Pretti Extreme (1/1) to catch down the stretch.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.OC 45000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Grape Nuts Warrior (15/1) – He’s probably not good enough to beat the favorites in here, but the Conductor thinks he will run well and hit the board. He had a bad trip last time going 3-wide into the first turn, then pressing a quick pace 3-wide and uncovered the entire 2nd turn. He rightfully tired late and now cuts back in distance to a two turn mile. Grape Nuts Warrior looks primed to run his best today and fill the train back up with coal and then some.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) New York Stallion Series Stakes

#8 Twenty Six Black (5/2) – The Conductor sees this colt turning the tables on the favorite #7 Ramblin’ Wreck (7/5), who beat him last time. Twenty Six Black has impressed Mr. Ductor in each start this year. He was uncovered the whole way pressing 3-wide last time and was just nailed at the wire. He still galloped out in front and he’ll be up close to much slower fractions stretching out today. He’ll end the Conductor’s winning horizontal tickets.

We’re back at Saratoga after a 1/3 Saturday with a 5/2 winner. Not amazing, but slightly in the green. Overall, it was a pretty disappointing week with all the rain. The Conductor won’t be posting on the off the turf days. Small fields and slop, no thank you. This week’s forecast looks good until Saturday. Hopefully the pony gods are kind to us this weekend. It’s a beautiful thing to have Wednesday racing back. The Conductor will be locked into his cockpit for the remainder of the meet. No more time for friends and family, there is work to be done. Start shoveling, Skip.

Saratoga Race 7: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.S.OC 45000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Im Just Kiddin (7/2) – This filly has received brutal trips and rides by Jose Ortiz in all three of her starts this year. Two starts back she was put up via DQ in front of Collaboration (3/1), despite being 4-wide around first turn, 3-wide on the 2nd turn and uncovered the entire way. Last time out the Conductor’s trip note says, “rank, fought Jose the entire backstretch, never settled, ignore and hope for a different rider next time.” Another rider is exactly what she gets today. Saez will use her early speed and she’ll have the jump on this field as they turn for home. The Conductor thinks she goes off higher than her morning line as well. 

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 149500n1x

#8 Fleetfooted (5/1) – This filly has won with good trips in her last two starts. She steps up in class against open company today, but she looks to get another great pace scenario. She draws well to the outside and has a significant early speed edge over this field. She’ll be all alone on the lead and shortening 1/2 a furlong, she’ll be tough to catch. Fleetfooted will steal another one on the front end.