Month: July 2023

Saratoga Saturday Picks — July 15, 2023 | Opening Weekend Best Bets

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Horses and jockeys racing from the starting gate at Saratoga Turf Course during a horse race.

We’re back on the turf today. Thank you pony gods. The first Saturday at Saratoga and the Conductor needs to rebound after a poor Thursday. Plenty of full fields and great opportunities today. Let’s make them pay. Skip.

Saratoga Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Mdn 136.5k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 No Deli (10/1) – The Conductor has been waiting to play this filly back since her debut. She missed the break, made a 4-wide uncovered move on the turn from last and never quit. It was a sneaky good effort and she should take a massive step forward today making her 2nd start for the Mott barn. Double digit odds would be a treat.

Saratoga

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.S.Alw 95000n1x

#10 Silver Skillet (7/2) – This filly showed that she loves to mow switching to turf for the first time last start. She closed well behind a slow pace and finished best with a huge gallop out. She should appreciate the added ground today, and the Conductor thinks she’s the most talented filly in the field. The only concern is the post and Rosario, but in the 4/1 range the Conductor thinks she’s worth a play. He’ll be leaning on her in a race that many passengers will be spreading in the horizontal wagers.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) G3 Kelso Stakes

#7 Anaconda (6/1) – Annapolis and Casa Creed are formidable favorites, but the Conductor will key around Anaconda in this race. He was impressed with his last effort, when he stepped up in class in the Poker. He was checked hard on backstretch and still finished well on the inside, galloping out in front of the pack. There is a ton of early speed in this race and Anaconda should get an ideal setup. He’ll be flying late in the Saratoga stretch and the Conductor sees his odds drifting up from the 6/1 morning line.

Saratoga Thursday Picks — July 13, 2023 | Spa Meet Opening Day Contenders

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Saratoga

Poor Sunday at Belmont to close the meet, but nobody cares about that now. Our wait is finally over. Saratoga is finally here. Will you hammer the right horses and make all your dreams come true? Or will we find you in the sewer on September 5th? Don’t worry, the Conductor will guide you on your journey. As long as you stay close to the railroad, you will survive. Rainy forecast this weekend is a downer, but the Conductor is planning for on the turf Thursday. Let’s build some momentum early. Skip.

Race 1: 1 1/8 Mile. F.OC 50000n1x

#1 Virtual Reality (3/1) – This filly’s debut win at Belmont was impressive. She looked dead on the turn as she was boxed in on the inside and losing ground. Once Franco got her clear to the outside, she re-rallied, finished strong, and was game to get the win. Her big gallop out suggests she’ll like the added distance today and Chad Brown will win his first of many this meet in the opener.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 35000n2L

#10 La Aguililla (6/1) – The Conductor touted this mare after her last turf start three back and she flopped in the slop. She hasn’t run well on the dirt since, but now switches back to turf and takes on much weaker today. It’s still only her fifth start in the Jacobson barn and Irad hops back aboard. She ran very well in her last turf race with a heinous trip, chasing 4-wide uncovered the entire turn. The Conductor will give her one more shot returning to the lawn at what should be a square price.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf)  Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Foliage (20/1) – This race is wide open and this gelding is stepping up in class after a nice win last time. He had a good trip that day, but he also had a massive gallop out. He’s run well vs allowance company in the past, and stretches out to a mile for the first time in his career. Making his 3rd start in the Joe Sharp barn, he’s rounding into form and has major upside. He can hit the board and light up the Saratoga tote.

Saratoga

Belmont Park Sunday Picks — July 9, 2023 | Meet Closing Day Full Card Handicapping

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Two railroad workers in overalls hammering metal tracks during a demonstration, with a crowd watching in the background.

Brutal Saturday for the Conductor, The pony gods put him in his place for tempting them. However, you still can’t wipe the smile off the Ductor’s face. Last day at Belmont and then we’re off to Toga for the rest of the summer. Let’s finish the meet in style. Skip

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.S.Alw 80000n1x

#5 Disruption (8/1) – #3 You’re My Girl (8/5) probably obliterates this field, but this filly intrigues the Conductor. Disruption progressed nicely after debuting at Saratoga last fall and ran a very fast figure to break her maiden. Now she makes her first start as a 3-year-old for top connections and  looks to get a perfect trip today. Prat will have her stalking a contested pace and she’s one of the only runners in here that has proven she can pass horses and win. She’s the value in this race.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Brisky Frolic (6/1) – This is the best betting race on the card, plenty of prices have chances. However, the Conductor likes this filly quite a bit in this spot. She obliviously improved moving to the Linda Rice barn last time. Lezcano gave her a terrible ride that day too. She was 3-wide and uncovered the entire turn for no reason. Now she stretches out to a route and Jose hops aboard. This race is devoid of any other early speed and Brisky Frolic will be alone on the lead. They won’t catch her. Gate to wire. Skip

Belmont Park

 

Belmont Derby Saturday Picks — July 8, 2023 | Belmont Derby Day Best Bets

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Keeneland Picks

2 for 3 with 8/5 and 7/1 winners with a 7/1 2nd at Belmont Friday is just what the Ductor ordered. I can’t believe these tickets are free, this is such a great ride. The generous Conductor has plenty more up his sleeve today too. Unbelievable. Skip.

Race 3: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 90k

#2 Romeinaday (12/1) – The Conductor was close to keeping this filly to himself, but I was able to talk him into sharing. Feel free to tip the scribe too, without me you passengers would get nothing. This filly ran like it was a prep in her Belmont debut last time. She closed from last to split the field and had a mammoth gallop out past the winner. She draws well to the inside today, will appreciate the added distance, and will take a massive step forward with that last race under her belt. Just like the Conductor’s Empire, Rome wasn’t built in one day.

Race 5: 1 1/4 Mile. G2 Suburban Stakes

#1 Tonal Impact (4/1) – Linda Rice and Jose Ortiz have been unbeatable during this Belmont meet. This gelding ran a huge figure last time and now stretches out from a mile. This is a weak field with a terrible favorite in #4 Charge It (3/5), who is much better going shorter. The distance will be no problem for Tonal Impact and the Conductor can see the bettors cursing Linda when he runs huge again.

Race 10: 1 1/4 Mile. (Inner Turf) G1 Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 Redistricting (8/1) – The Conductor doesn’t see any bonified Grade 1 horses in this field, so he’s looking for a colt with upside in this year’s Belmont Derby. #11 The Foxes (7/2) is the class of the field, but an outside draw and making his first start in the US is a lot to ask at a short price. Redistricting was ultra impressive in his debut last time. He showed a serious turn of foot and freak potential. The Conductor will call him a certified mower. When’s the last time he did that? Oh wait that was yesterday when More Than Looks won easy at 7/1. Skip.

Belmont Derby

Belmont Park Friday Picks — July 7, 2023 | Full Card Value Plays

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Belmont Park

0/3 Tuesday at Belmont after a great weekend left a sour taste in the Conductor’s mouth. Thankfully, the pony gods let us get right back at it after only two days of rest. It’s the last weekend at Belmont and then the train heads upstate to rob Saratoga blind. Grab a shovel, it’s the coal isn’t going to pile itself. Skip.

Race 5: 6½ Furlongs. S.Mdn 75k

#8 Thank You Jon (5/2) – This colt was hammered at the windows in both starts for a low % barn. The bettors know something and he showed the Conductor that he has talent last time at Belmont. He checked hard after a slow break, chased in the parking lot the entire turn, and still never quit for a good 3rd. Now 2nd off the layoff with a nice outside post and Irad aboard, he’ll graduate today. 5/2 or better is fair enough for Mr. Ductor

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) G3 Manila Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 More Than Looks (8/1) – This filly is stepping up in class, but make sure you watch her last race. She showed a thunderous late punch despite a wide trip and being bumped in the stretch. She’s a certified mower and is shipping in to Belmont for a red hot Cherie DeVaux barn. 8/1 would be a dream, anything over 5/1 is tasty. As usual the tape shows more than meets the eye.

Belmont

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.MC 75000

#1 Freedom for All (8/1) – This is a pretty weak field and this filly intrigues the Conductor. She has some turf breeding and has run well in Kentucky vs tougher on dirt. She runs like a turf horse and has run strong late pace figures in each start. With a nice inside draw, she should get a ground saving trip and be dangerous if she takes to the turf at all. At 8/1, the Conductor is more than willing to take a swing.

Belmont Park Tuesday Picks — July 4, 2023 | July 4th Holiday Full Card Contenders

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Keeneland Picks

Mr. Ductor was in a foul mood after his winning gullet shot was DQ’d Monday. However, he kept his composure and delivered with two easy winners after. Belmont can only keep him at bay for so long. Let’s finish this holiday racing week with a bang. NYRA’s gullet is exposed. Skip.

Race 7: 1 1/4 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

#2 Amani’s Image (6/1) – This field has been decimated by scratches this morning and it’s now only a 5-horse field. The Conductor will still mention her, although she won’t be the price he wanted. The Conductor isn’t impressed with any of the New York contenders in here, and he cashed on this filly last time at Pimlico. She had a great trip that day, but still won easy stretching out and looks like she could relish the longer distance. Motion runners have been firing at this Belmont meet and she has the potential take another step forward today.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) S.Alw 80000n1x

#2 Be of Courage (6/1) – This colt was clearly best of the of the multiple contenders in here that are exiting the same race at Belmont on June 9th. He was finishing best from the back of the pack and galloped out well. He gets a nice inside draw today and Castellano stays aboard. Trainer Pregman, Jr. is only 7% on the year, so he’ll likely be an overlay at the windows too.

Race 10: 1 1/4 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 95000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Lullaby Land (10/1) – Stretching out and stepping up in class last time, this mare took a big step forward in her first start in the Jack Abrams barn. She made a nice visual move on the turn before flattening out down the stretch. She shortens back in distance today and she has upside in a pretty weak field. Jose staying aboard for a small barn is a great sign as well.

Belmont Park

Belmont Park Monday Picks — July 3, 2023 | Full Card Contenders

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Keeneland Picks

Bernt Again saves Sunday at 4/1  for the Conductor and us passengers. The train keeps rolling at Belmont and the July 4th party rolls on. More grilled meat, more stew, more winners. Let’s Ride.

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) F.MC 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Wonder Girl (6/1) – This filly just missed at this level three starts back and ran better than it looks last time vs tougher. She had a bad trip in that last race, pressing 3-wide uncovered the entire turn. Now she drops in class, cuts back in distance, and gets a weight break vs this group. All signs point to her graduating today.

Belmont Park

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 75k

#12 She’s a Natural (20/1) – When this filly drew the far outside post again, the Conductor puked. She’s had terribly wide trips and bad rides in her last few starts. Last time she was rank and 4-wide into 1st turn, made 4-wide uncovered move on 2nd turn and ran well again without a fair shot. Carmouche is aboard for the first time today, maybe he can figure out a way to work out a trip from the 12 post. If he can, She’s a Natural can light up the tote.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. Alw 50000s

#8 Baltasar (4/1) – This gelding’s dirt form lays over this field. He runs his best at Belmont, the only only concern is the layoff. Trainer Hector De Paz Horacio is 18% with runners off the bench this year and it’s a good sign that Franco hops aboard. With a nice outside draw 4/1 would be a generous price on the most likely winner.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) Hudson Valley Stakes

#2 Dakota Gold (2/1) – Irad got this colt beat last time. He was stuck inside for a long time in stretch and when he finally got out, he finished best and galloped out in front of the field. City Man is certainly not in this field and he ran better #4 Jerry The Nipper (5/2) last time. He’s a single for the Conductor.

 

Belmont Park Sunday Picks — July 2, 2023 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

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Keeneland Picks

2/4 Saturday with Three Technique getting home at 5/1 starts the Belmont weekend off in the green. The Conductor found it hard to find horses to lean on today, but he’s always got a few up his sleeve. Keep the throttle down Conductor, we’ll keep stacking the coal. Skip.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) MC 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Steady Scheming (9/2) – The Conductor will set the tone for the day at Belmont right for the jump. This gelding  was bet to favoritism last time and ran a winning race. He made a big wide early move move on the turn and was just nailed late. This may be an asinine morning line, but he’ll likely be the 2nd choice in here and he’s the most likely winner. 3/1 or better is fair for the Conductor.

Belmont Park

Race 3: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Perfect Sting Stakes

#1 Customer List (7/2) – #2 Technical Analysis (1/1) will probably win, but she may be vulnerable off the bench. She also does her best running on the lead and won’t get it today. Customer List won nicely last time off the layoff at Monmouth, closing behind a slow pace. She ran a very strong late pace figure and should step forward with a race under her belt. She looks to get a perfect ground saving trip by Irad today and offers value in this small stakes field. Chad Brown can’t sneak this one by the Ductor at Belmont.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 50000n2L

#2 Bernt Again (4/1) – This is a very weak Belmont claiming race and this filly broke her maiden nicely last time. She got a good trip and ride by Franco, but she was still dominant in victory. She’s progressing nicely this year since returning to the turf and gets a nice inside draw today. The Conductor thinks she’ll float up from this morning line and be an overlay too.

Belmont Park Saturday Picks — July 1, 2023 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

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Belmont Park

Belmont needs to pay for cancelling the Conductor’s hard work Friday. How are these Canadian fires still reeking havoc? Clean it up Canada, Mr. Ductor has bills to pay. Skip.

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 95000n1x

#2 Diamond Hands (3/1) – Returning after a short break last time at Belmont, this filly ran better than it looks, closing behind a slow pace. She wheeled out wide from the back of the pack and galloped out well in front group. 7 furlongs should be the perfect distance for her and she gets a nice inside draw here. Pletcher will take money but the Conductor thinks 3/1 is a fair price and that we’ll get it today.

Race 6: 1 Mile. G3 Dwyer Stakes

#5 Fort Bragg (8/5) – The Conductor was very angry when he scratched on Belmont Stakes day. He ran so well on Derby day and now he’s in the Baffert barn for real. The Conductor thinks he’s a very talented one turn horse.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 50000s

#12 Kingfish Stevens (8/1) – This gelding ran a good 2nd at this level and distance two starts back after making an early move into a hot pace. He ran well again in a stakes vs tougher on Preakness day last time, and now ships back up to New York. He’s improving, working bullets entering today, and Castellano stays aboard for a barn he rarely rides for. The only concern for the Conductor is the wide post, but 8/1 would be more than enough for him to take a swing.

Belmont

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. G2 John A. Nerud Stakes

Three Technique (5/1) – The Conductor has always been a fan of this hard knocker who runs huge late pace figures on dirt. His best races can beat this group and his running style fits Belmont perfectly. He hasn’t missed the board in 5 career starts over this dirt track and 5/1  is more than fair in this 7 horse field. He can clog two gaps and still make the tackle. Skip.