Good bounce back Saturday for the Conductor. Let’s finish the weekend strong.
Let’s whack’em right between the eyes. Skip.
| Race | A | B | C |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| 2 | 2, 5, 7, 9 | 1, 6 | |
| 3 | 3, 7, 10 | 1, 4, 5, 6 | |
| 4 | 1, 2 | 4, 6, 9 | |
| 5 | 7 | 1 | 2, 9, 11 |
| 6 | 1 | 3, 9, 10 | |
| 7 | 2 | 6 | 1, 4, 8, 9 |
| 8 | 6, 8 | 4, 10 | 7, 13 |
| 9 | 3, 6 | 1, 2, 8, 11 |
The Conductor sucked yesterday. Let’s be honest about it. The 15/1 horse in the turf sprint that got steamed down to 6/1 after the gates opened, and then won on the lead for fun — when he’s never been on the lead in his life — really soured the Conductor on Keeneland.
It’s tough to love this game when the CAWS are in bed with the tracks and the greedy bastards don’t give a shit about the horseplayer. That’s not a game. That’s a tax collection dressed up in silks.
But the Conductor doesn’t quit. The passengers don’t quit. We show up. We cap harder. We try again. Skip.
Be wary of the rain today — there might be some late scratches. The forecast doesn’t look bad enough to take the races off the turf, but watch the board before post time. Scratches reshape this card. Adapt accordingly.
| Race | Contenders |
|---|---|
| Race 1 | 1 / 2, 4 |
| Race 2 | 3, 4 / 2, 8, 9 |
| Race 3 | 3, 7 / 1, 8, 9, 10, 12 |
| Race 4 | 2 / 7 |
| Race 5 | 9, 10, 11 / 1, 7, 8 |
| Race 6 | 3 / 4, 8 / 7, 9, 10 |
| Race 7 | 1 / 3, 4, 7 |
| Race 8 | 3, 6 / 1, 11 |
| Race 9 | 1, 5, 8 / 4, 6 |
| Race 10 | 2, 4 / 1, 3, 5 |
| Race 11 | 12 / 3, 5, 7, 10 |
Watch the scratches. Don’t chase the steam. And remember — the Conductor doesn’t owe the CAWS a damn thing. We ride at our own pace.
New passenger? Subscribe to The Conductor’s Scroll — free to board, First Class for the full weekend card. And if you want to understand what the Conductor is actually doing before he writes these, start with the beginner’s guide to handicapping a horse race.
All aboard. The Conductor has been staring at past performances since before the sun came up, and after a weekends worth of handicapping the well has run dry. You’re getting the numbers. You’re not getting a lecture.
| Race | Contenders |
|---|---|
| Race 1 | 2 / 3 / 7 |
| Race 2 | 5, 7 / 2, 3, 6 |
| Race 3 | 1, 5, 6 / 2, 3 |
| Race 4 | 1, 3, 5 / 6, 7 |
| Race 5 | 3 / 5, 7, 8 |
| Race 6 | 1, 2, 3 / 4, 5, 6 |
| Race 7 | 2, 4 / 1, 3 |
| Race 8 | 1, 6, 9 / 10 |
| Race 9 | 1 / 3, 4, 7 |
| Race 10 | 3, 5 / 7 |
Decent Saturday for the Conductor at Keeneland. Expensive Queen winning outright instead of a dead heat would have been nice. Alas, we move on to another beautiful Sunday. Let’s finish the weekend strong. Skip.
Race 1: 8 / 10 / 5,6
Race 2: 2 / 4,5
Race 3: 3,4,6 / 7,9
Race 4: 5,7,11 / 2,6,10
Race 5: 1,2,11,12 / 3,4,6,8
Race 6: 1 / 2,4
Race 7: Giant’s Causeway (G3): 11 / 9,10,13,15 / 1,2,3,7,12 / 4,6
Race 8: 8 / 1,6
Race 9: 1,12 / 4,11
Tricky Friday for the Conductor, but Echo Zulu taking down the Maker’s Mark at 4/1 was nice. Solid Saturday card up next headlined by the Lexington Stakes and the Jenny Wiley. Looks like 72 and sunny and the Conductor will be there sipping on his stew. He continues to be generous with his picks. Skip.
Race 1: 9 / 2,5,6
Race 2: 1,5,8,14 / 6
Race 3: 7 / 4,6
Race 4: 2 / 4,8
Race 5: 2,4,5 / 6,10,12 / 3
Race 6: 2 / 1,7
Race 7: 4,7 / 6,9
Race 8: 3,4,10 / 1,5,11,12
Race 9 — Jenny Wiley (G1): 1 / 6,7 / 9,10
Race 10 — Stonestreet Lexington (G3): 10 / 1,7,9,11
Race 11: 6 / 3,4,8 / 2,11
Decent opening day for the Conductor, with todays stacked card there is no time for reflection. Aim small, miss small, but really never miss at all. Skip.
Race 2: #7 Gilded Bandit (4/1) – This colt broke slow in his debut, but ran a huge late pace figure closing into a slow pace. Now making his 2nd start and adding blinkers for Mott, he’s the one to beat, not the morning line favorites.
Race 8: #1 Spirit Doll (20/1) – This filly showed real talent last fall and ran decent off the bench last time, 3-wide chasing the pace. Now 2nd off the layoff for Saffie, she looks to get an ideal rail pocket trip. In a race that looks wide open to the Conductor, he’s looking for a big price.
Full card selections are only available to loyal passengers.
Opening Day at Keeneland has arrived, and the Conductor has rolled back into the station with a full head of steam. Today, every passenger — loyal or brand new — gets the full card.
But enjoy this generosity while it lasts.
Once the Conductor irons out the newsletter kinks, full cards will be reserved only for the truly loyal passengers who stay on board.
Skip.
5 / 2, 8
3 / 1, 5, 7, 12
2, 7 / 1, 8
2, 8, 9, 11, 12
1, 2, 7 / 3, 4
8, 9 / 1, 12, 13
7 / 3
7 / 1, 3, 4
2, 3, 4
7, 10, 12 / 2, 3, 5
How the hell is it closing week at Keeneland already? Only three racing days left and we certainly need to make them count. The turf racing is great today. Let’s Ride.
#2 Coiled (10/1) – This colt won nicely in his first start as a 3-year-old this year at Turfway. He ran a strong late pace figure, which should translate well to stretching out on the turf. Add a nice inside draw and a red-hot Ben Curtis in the irons, and you’ve got a live 10/1 shot in a wide open race.
#8 Cha Cha Chuka (20/1) – This is a tough ask against this salty field, but the Counductor will key around this filly at a big price. She consistently overcame poor trips this winter at Gulfstream, closing strongly against slow paces and frontrunner flows. Nobody is better than Maker in these distance turf races.
#1 Indy’s Halo (5/1) – This filly had a no chance trip two back at Gulfstream and then ran a big 2nd last time at Tampa. She was well back behind a tepid pace and showed a strong late kick. Now she draws the rail in her 3rd start off the layoff, and Victoria Oliver runners have been firing at Keeneland. 4/1 or better is fair on Indy’s Halo.
The Conductor will choose to forget Friday. Let’s have a big day before this Keeneland meet is over, please.
#9 Missed the Cut (6/1) – Cherie DeVeaux isn’t having the meet she hoped for, but the Conductor thinks she picks up a stakes win today. This gelding had a brutal trip off a long layoff last time. He was pulled up sharply on the 1st turn, and finished sneaky well against the frontrunner flow, galloping out in front. Gaffalione may have been told to save this one for Keeneland… Missed the Cut is going to run a monster race, the only concern is the post.
#1 Rebel Red (8/1) – The only other horse the Conductor will be using in this race is Missed the Cut’s stable mate. He was also prepped off the bench last time, running a strong late pace figure in a merry go round race. Jose stays aboard and Rebel Red gets a favorable inside draw.
#9 Askari (10/1) – This gelding showed real talent on the turf in 2023 and took a long hiatus to get back to the track. He’s been rounding back into form at Turfway this winter and this looks like the spot where he peaks. Cutting back in distance exiting and switching back to the turf for the first time this year, Askari should run a career best effort. Let’s end the card with a bang.
Clicquot got steamed down, but was a winner Thursday. We still aren’t connecting on the big prices. Mostly chalk came in, and that’s not the way the Conductor likes his Keeneland. Hopefully Friday is a bit more conducive to prices. Let’s Ride.
#8 American Monarch (12/1) – This ridgling jogged around the track last time off a long layoff. That was a clear prep for this race and his workouts have improved since. His best turf races can beat this field and Mott wouldn’t ship him to Keeneland if he wasn’t live. Double digit odds is certainly a bet.
#1 Just F Y I (7/2) – How about a Mott/Alvarado double? #6 Candied (8/5) ran big in the Distaff, but this is her first start of the year and she’s up against the pace scenario here. Just F Y I has a race under her belt in 2025 and can control the early pace vs this group. She’s a more likely winner in the Conductor’s opinion at double the price.
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