Month: August 2024

Saratoga Friday Picks — August 16, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

on By
Dynamic horse racing scene featuring jockeys in colorful silks competing on a dirt track, showcasing speed and athleticism.

What a fun game the Conductor keeps playing at Saratoga. Wait all Thursday to play his key races and then the rain comes and wipes them out. How many times can one man bang his head into a wall? This game stinks. Skip.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Elounda Queen (5/1) – This filly was well meant shipping to America and has disappointed since. She moved onto the Brad Cox barn last time and finally took a big step forward. She showed a wicked stretch kick and was likely going to win the race, until the rail closed and she had to be taken up close to the wire. Elounda Queen has plenty of back class and now that Brad Cox has her moving in the right direction, the Conductor sees her firing a peak effort today. #1 Tax Implications (6/5) will be an extremely over bet favorite in this race too.

Saratoga Picks Today

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 80000n1x

#10 Mixologist (5/1) – The Conductor is looking for the Brad Cox/Rosario double today. This filly won her debut at Churchill impressively, beating a quality filly in Deep Satin. She then shipped to Saratoga last time and was bet to favoritism at this level. She got a very questionable ride by Geroux that day, getting sucked up close to a pace that resulted in the closers dominating the flow of that race. Now with Rosario aboard, they will likely switch back to the deep closing tactics that led to her debut victory. There is enough early speed in this race to set it up for Mixolgist to come mowing late.

Saratoga Thursday Picks — August 15, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

on By 1 Comment
A thoroughbred racehorse galloping on a dirt track with a jockey in colorful attire, showcasing speed and power during a race.

The Conductor’s Saratoga week is getting started a day late. That means we need to collect double the coal. Grab a shovel. Skip.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. OC 80000b

#1 Olympic Dreams (8/1) – There isn’t any speed in this race and Olympic Dreams gets brave when he has the lead in the stretch. He’s 5/10 in his career over a fast dirt track and 4/8 at the distance. His numbers fit with this group and trainer Patrick Quick is 18% with +$4.55 ROI with runners off 90+ day breaks this year. The Conductor sees him setting a slow pace along the rail today and fighting tooth and nail to steal this race gate to wire.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.Mdn 90k P

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 New York Scrappy (9/2) – This gelding showed he has talent in his debut sprinting on the turf. He was bumped hard at the break and still rallied for 3rd from back of the pack. He was then bet to favoritism last time on dirt and faded after battling up front in a wicked pace duel. He switches back to the surface he’s bred for today and will try routing for the first time. This looks like the perfect scenario for New York Scrappy to run his best.

Saratoga Picks today

Saratoga Sunday Picks — August 11, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

on By
A racehorse with a jockey in colorful silks, capturing the intensity of horse racing at a racetrack.

Saturday was a dud at Del Mar. The Conductor will lick his wounds and take the train back east where they’re finally back on the turf at Saratoga. There are plenty of opportunities to be had on this card. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.MC 40000

#2 Judge Rules (9/2) – This gelding has taken a step forward since switching to the turf. He’s run well despite two poor trips in his last two starts at this level. He finally draws a favorable inside post today and looks to get a nice ground saving trip for the first time. If Judge Rules doesn’t win this race vs this weak group, he never will.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) MahonyL150K Mahony Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Yellow Card (6/1) – This colt really took to the turf last time at Churchill. He got a good trip covered 2-wide, but won with ease and galloped out miles in front of the pack. He takes a step up in class today, but there aren’t any monsters in this stakes field. There will be a contested early pace and Yellow Card should be in a perfect spot stalking along the rail. The Conductor sees this colt mowing down the competition in the stretch.

Saratoga Picks Today

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. Clm 25000n3L

#5 Dads Good Runner (10/1) – The Conductor thinks this gelding is a serious gate to wire threat. His last race looks like it came out of nowhere, but it was only two starts after switching to a much improved barn. He was previously trained by a 0% trainer. There isn’t much other early speed in here to pressure him early, and that makes him very dangerous over a speed favoring Saratoga dirt track.

Del Mar Saturday Picks — August 10, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

on By 1 Comment
Two racehorses competing on a dirt track with jockeys in colorful attire, showcasing speed and athleticism during a horse race.

A successful Friday at Del Mar makes the Conductor happy with his decision to take the train out west. Now it’s time to strike. Hopefully Del Mar didn’t forget it’s neck protector. Skip.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) OC 80000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Night Out (12/1) – This colt ran well in all three of his turf routes prior to moving into the D’Amato barn. After the barn change last time at Churchill, he had a rough start and threw in the towel early. You can ignore that effort and now he ships to the west coast to take on weaker. He’s working well entering today and the Conductor has knocks against all of the favorites in here. Night Out has the upside to jump up and beat this bunch.

Del Mar Picks Today

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 50000s

#1 Jack Kerouac (7/2) – The Conductor will continue the theme and likes a pair of lightly raced D’Amato runners in this race too. This colt took a massive step up in class on the turf back in May and ran well despite some trouble. He returned off the bench last time to run a solid 3rd on dirt, and that race looks to set him up perfectly for today. Jack Kerouac returns to his preferred surface, gets a nice rail draw, and looks ready to run a peak effort.

#3 Sea of Cortez (10/1) – This gelding has found it difficult to stay on the racetrack, so we still haven’t seen what he is capable of. He shipped over to the US well meant to be strong turf router, but wasn’t able to put it together last year. He finally broke his maiden sprinting off the layoff last time, and the Conductor likes the aggressive step up in class and stretch out in distance for him today. He debuted in a stakes race in Ireland, so you know he has talent. The Conductor will take a swing that we finally see it today at double digit odds.

Del Mar Friday Picks — August 9, 2024 | Best Bets & Summer Meet Handicapping

on By 1 Comment
A thrilling horse race featuring multiple horses and jockeys in vibrant silks, showcasing speed and competition on a dirt track.

Thursday‘s opinion at Del Mar was dud and there will be no racing at Saratoga Friday. This week just keeps getting better. At least we don’t have to worry about rain on the west coast. Let’s Ride.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 40000

#2 Tiergarten (5/1) – This mare drew the 8 post last time and ran better than it looks with a terrible trip. She was 2-wide and uncovered on the 1st turn, then pressed 3-wide, uncovered on the backstretch and 2nd turn. Now she draws well to the inside for the first time this year and looks to get a much better ground saving trip. Tiergarten has multiple races in her past that can beat this group and she’ll be a square price above 7/2.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 30000n3L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Explain This Audit (5/1) – The Conductor’s best bet of the day comes in the finale. This gelding ran very well vs tougher last time. He was 3-wide on the 1st turn, then 2-wide and covered on the 2nd turn 3rd turns. He ran a strong late pace figure that day and now drops in class and cuts back in distance. The Conductor thinks he’s the most likely winner of the race and he won’t be the favorite.

Del Mar Thursday Picks — August 8, 2024 | Best Bets & Summer Meet Handicapping

on By 1 Comment
Exciting horse racing scene with jockeys in colorful uniforms competing on thoroughbred horses on a grassy track.

The Del Mar turf racing has been excellent. It also never rains. The Conductor will start posting spot plays for the west coast passengers. He needs turf racing year round and it looks like California might be the answer. Thursday’s card isn’t the strongest, but the weekend looks great. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 75k

#3 On Time Tam (6/1) – The Conductor likes two fillies in this difficult turf sprint with many first time starters. This filly has a race under her belt and ran well last time after a terrible beginning. She was well bet from the 10 post at Los Alamitos and broke outwards and spotted the field 10 lengths. She still rallied to split the field behind a gate to wire winner and showed she has some ability. One Time Tam’s breeding gives a slight edge to turf, so there is reason to think she’ll like the surface switch as well. She has upside.

#5 Mrazek’s Old Dream (20/1) – This bomb intrigues the Conductor. She has by far the best turf bloodlines in the field. Trainer Antonio Garcia is only 1/17 this year debuting horses on turf, but that winner was also a monster price. In a field where all of the favorites have question marks, the Conductor can see this filly lighting up the tote.

Del Mar Picks today

Saratoga Thursday Picks — August 8, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

on By
A man dressed in dark attire riding a horse in a rainy urban environment, showcasing a blend of nature and city life.

Another beautiful Wednesday at Saratoga with a fast track and the races off the turf…Looks like Friday and Saturday will be off the turf too. We need to take advantage when we can. Skip.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 And One More Time (6/1) – This filly was working bullets and bet to favoritism in her debut at Churchill this June. Too bad the bettors didn’t get the memo that it was a prep. She got a verrrrry patient ride by Jose that day and you could see she was still full of energy well after she crossed the wire. She’s bred to step forward on the turf and now Casse ships her to Saratoga to get her picture taken. The Conductor thinks we’ll see what And One More Time is really capable of Thursday. She’s ready to mow.

Saratoga Picks Today

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.OClm 35000

#6 Busy Morning (5/1) – The finale is a great betting race with many contenders. However, the Conductor has one trip note that stands out on this filly. Stretching out to a route in a NY Bred Allowance race last time, she was traveling nicely with a good trip covered 2-wide. She looked loaded behind horses entering the stretch and then…Irad never asks? Busy morning galloped out in front of the rest to boot. There was certainly more under the hood that day and maybe his brother will give her a more competitive ride here. Both of the Conductor’s Thursday plays are in the hands of Jose Ortiz.

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

The Pegasus World Cup is here and the Conductor is ready to fire. He hasn't liked a card at Gulfstream this much maybe ever. Don't listen to this if you haven't signed up at Iron Bets yet with this link. You're not allowed. Skip.
  1. Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025
  2. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/23/2024
  3. Churchill and Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/16/2024
  4. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/9/2024
  5. 2024 Breeders' Cup Preview

Saratoga Whitney Stakes Day Picks — Saturday, August 3, 2024 | Full Card Analysis

on By
Black and white portrait of an elderly train conductor wearing a cap and uniform, showcasing a serious expression against a train backdrop.

The Conductor’s laptop broke, but he is preserving. Luckily all his capping is already done and he’s ready to attack this Whitney Stakes day card at Saratoga. Only the stakes races remain on the lawn after some rain last night, but that’s enough for the Conductor. Aim small, miss small, but really never miss at all. Skip.

Race 7: 1 3/16 Mile. (Turf) G1 Saratoga Derby Invitational

#5 Deterministic (6/1) – The Conductor likes both of the Clement horses in here. Deterministic ran very well last time in a tough spot for his first start on turf. He closed for 2nd behind a slow pace and should build off that effort. He’s shown he’s a quality horse on dirt and this may be the surface he prefers.

#6 Carson’s Run (8/1) – This colt is the only horse other than the favorite that has a Grade 1 win under his belt. He’s rounding back into his top form and his best efforts last year certainly make him a contender vs this field.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile (Inner Turf) Lure Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Kubrick (8/1) – The Conductor likes this colt quite a bit in this race. A genuine stakes horse in France, he shipped to America and romped at Tampa in the spring. He has disappointed since, but the Conductor can forgive his last two efforts. He pressed a quick pace over a yielding turf course at Keeneland and was too far back in a merry go round race last time. Now he looks to get an ideal ground saving trip with a fair pace to run at. This colt will show his true ability today.

aqueduct picks
1 1/8 Mile. G1 Whitney Stakes

#3 National Treasure (9/5) – The Conductor loved this colt in the Met Mile last time and he didn’t disappoint. He looks to be too tough for this group again at a short price, but the Conductor has two bombs up his sleeve to pair him with. #1 Post Time (20/1) ran 2nd behind National Treasure last time and has a good shot to do so again today. He always runs his race and will get a great trip along the Saratoga golden rail. #4 Warrior Johnny (20/1) loves Saratoga and will be finishing late. Although he beat a much weaker group last time, his win was incredible. He was nearly wiped out after the start and somehow rallied to win comfortably. The Whitney is a 3 / 1,4 exacta for the Conductor.

Saratoga Friday Picks — August 2, 2024 | Best Bets & Whitney Weekend Preview

on By
A racehorse galloping with a jockey in colorful attire, showcasing speed and athleticism on a grassy track.

Frustrating Thursday at Saratoga with the races being taken off the turf and a severely rail biased dirt course. Finally NYRA gives the Conductor his lawn back and he’s ready to mow. Big weekend ahead. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) OClm 35000

#2 Jhirsch (15/1) – The Conductor likes two prices in this wide open optional claimer. This gelding romped two back and was well bet last time at this level. In that last race, he got a terrible turf trip, chasing the pace 4-wide and uncovered on the turn. Now drawn to the inside, he’ll get a fair chance and the Conductor sees him running a big race.

#6 Typhoon Fury (12/1) – This gelding is exiting a easy sprint victory. Now 1st off the claim for Toscano, he stretches out to a route in a race devoid of other pace. Toscano has a positive ROI this year 1st off the clam and the Conductor thinks Typhoon Fury is a serious gate to wire threat.

Race 8: 1 3/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Oaks Invitational Stakes

#1 Cinderella’s Dream (6/5) – The Conductor was very impressed with this filly’s stretch run last time in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks. She showed a serious kick against the frontrunner flow and that was her first try at this distance. The only wild card in this race is the other European, #5 Greenfinch (9/2), making her US debut. However, the Conductor still gives the edge to Cinderella’s dream.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) G2 National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Please Advise (10/1) – This 1st time gelding finished behind the favorite, #4 Neat (5/2), last time but had no chance with the pace scenario. He was far back behind a very slow pace and ran well to make up ground in the stretch. Now getting a major rider upgrade to Prat today and a nice inside draw, the Conductor sees him getting a perfect pocket trip. There isn’t much that separates this group on numbers, so the trip will make all the difference. Please Advise will refuel the train’s coal supply heading into the weekend.

Saratoga picks today

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

The Pegasus World Cup is here and the Conductor is ready to fire. He hasn't liked a card at Gulfstream this much maybe ever. Don't listen to this if you haven't signed up at Iron Bets yet with this link. You're not allowed. Skip.
  1. Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025
  2. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/23/2024
  3. Churchill and Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/16/2024
  4. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/9/2024
  5. 2024 Breeders' Cup Preview

Saratoga Thursday Picks — August 1, 2024 | Best Bets & G2 Glens Falls Stakes Analysis

on By 1 Comment
A subway officer stands in the rain at a train station, wearing a dark uniform and cap, with blurred trains in the background.

The rain came Wednesday at Saratoga and the races were taken off the turf. The Conductor thought there was no way they’d be off the turf again today, but NYRA continues to disappoint him. Only the Grade 2 Glen Falls Stakes is on the lawn today. The Conductor will make due. Skip.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. S.OC 45000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Pompous Price (15/1) – This gelding has improved with each start in the Anthony Ferraro barn. His win streak was snapped last time by one of the favorites in here, #4 Jak N Burny (3/1). However, that was going 5 1/2 furlongs and Pompous Prince made up significant ground in the stretch. Jak N Burny will face much more pace pressure today and Conductor is expecting him and #8 Caldo Candy (3/1) to duke it out early. Pompous Prince will be flying late and the added half furlong today will help his cause. Pompous Prince can light up the tote in the 4th.

Saratoga Picks today

Race 9: 1½ Mile. (Inner Turf) F.G2 Glens Falls Stakes

#5 Eternal Hope (3/1) – This is one of three fillies in here that will take money. The Conductor trusts Prat and Appleby more than the others. She’s proven at the distance, proven over soft ground, and is versatile enough to work out a favorable trip. Nothing too creative here.

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

The Pegasus World Cup is here and the Conductor is ready to fire. He hasn't liked a card at Gulfstream this much maybe ever. Don't listen to this if you haven't signed up at Iron Bets yet with this link. You're not allowed. Skip.
  1. Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025
  2. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/23/2024
  3. Churchill and Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/16/2024
  4. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/9/2024
  5. 2024 Breeders' Cup Preview