Month: May 2023

Belmont Park Sunday Picks — May 14, 2023 | Mother’s Day Full Card Handicapping

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A winning horse adorned with flowers in the Belmont Park winner's circle surrounded by jubilant people celebrating the victory.

2/4 Saturday with two 2/1 winners and a 10/1 2nd keeps the train moving in the right direction. Let’s finish the  weekend strong at Belmont and head into Preakness week in 5th gear. Happy Mothers’ Day Mom, see you at the track. Skip.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 30000n2L

#3 Proven Hope (6/1) – This gelding took big step forward in his first start routing on the turf last time. He didn’t have the easiest trip, bumped and checked a few times, 3wide on the turn, and still got the job done. The Conductor thinks he’s found the surface and distance he’s wanted all along.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Nightsaber (9/2) – 1st off the claim last time, this filly ran well making an early move into a quick pace and was run down late. Now she shortens in distance and makes her 2nd start for the De Paz at Belmont. She will likely improve off that last effort, since she came from a 0% barn.

Belmont

The Conductor wishes he had more for you passengers, but there aren’t any other horses on the card that stand out. Don’t blame him, blame Belmont. Do some work for yourself for once. Skip.

Belmont Park Saturday Picks — May 13, 2023 | Peter Pan Stakes Day Best Bets

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Keeneland Picks

Boom. Lady of Thoroton at 11/1 and Reflexivity at 6/1 down Belmont’s throat latch Friday.

Belmont

We needed a big day and got it. The Conductor is rearing to go Saturday…and then he saw the card. There are only a handful of quality races. The Peter Pan is a great race, but other than that this card stinks for a Saturday. Whatever, we’ll make do. Let’s Ride

Race 5: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) G1 Man o’ War Stakes

#2 Warren Point (9/5) – The Conductor hates chalk, but this looks like easy pickings for Godolphin and Appleby. This is a very weak American group for a Grade 1. The rich get richer.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. G3 Peter Pan Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Arcangelo (10/1) – This colt is steadily progressing and and his maiden breaker last time caught the Conductor’s eye. He didn’t have the best dirt trip and blew by the heavy favorite with ease. He’s a little goofy and has a ton of upside. He should have beaten Louisiana Derby winner Kingsbarn two back with a cleaner trip as well. If Pletcher or Chad were his trainer, he’d be 4/1. The Conductor will happily take his inflated odds at Belmont.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) S.Alw 80000n1x

#7 Twenty Six Black (4/1) – This is a wide open allowance race and you could make a case for many. The one horse in this field that could romp is this colt. He was loaded behind horses until the thee final 1/8th of a mile and still got the job done. He won by a neck, but his gallop out was thunderous.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 62500n1x

#10 Juniper’s Mood (8/1) – There are some salty fillies in this race, but this is the one price the Conductor finds interesting. She was very rank early in the Florida Oaks and spent the first turn fighting Paco. She wasted a ton of energy early and the Conductor was shocked she held on for 3rd. The Conductor likes the rider switch to Castellano today and this filly has upside.

Belmont Park Friday Picks — May 12, 2023 | Full Card Value Plays

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Belmont Park

The Conductor rarely blames jockeys, so you know what he’s about to do. Rosario’s ride on Keen Heir Thursday was as bad as it gets on dirt. She was miles the best and cost Mr. Ductor bundles of coal. After that, Shinsun was short in the stretch and Belmont Park had the audacity to scratch the Conductor’s kill shot, Chess Spectacular, in the finale. Can’t draw up a worse way to start the racing week. Whatever, onto Friday. Skip.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.Clm 25000

#6 Spicy Margarita (5/1) – Shipping in from Laurel, she tried the turf for the first time last race and adored it. She was on the inside in a duel and drew off with ease in the stretch. This is a pretty weak claiming field at Belmont and it looks ripe for to steal it on the front end. Gate to wire.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 50000s

#8 Lady of Thoroton (8/1) – Making her first start off the bench las time she showed nice 4-wide move on the turn. Now making her 2nd start as a 4-year-old, the Conductor projects a step forward. She’ll hit the board at a square price.

#10 Frosty Invasion (15/1) – She’s been terrible on dirt, but switching to turf last time she ran her eyeballs out. She was  slammed at start, made an early 4-wide move on the turn, and still won easily. This isn’t a deep allowance field and the Conductor can see her lighting up the tote.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 90k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 Reflexivity (8/1) – She ran much better than it looks in her debut at Saratoga last summer. She chased the pace 3-wide and uncovered entire turn and didn’t completely fade late. Now she returns as a 4-year-old for top connections and gets Lasix for the first time. In a maiden race where many passengers will spread, the Conductor’s money will be on her nose to hit the wire first.

Belmont

Belmont Park Thursday Picks — May 11, 2023 | Full Card Contenders

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A large crowd gathered at a horse racing event, featuring diverse attendees in various outfits and styles.

0/3 Sunday in the Conductor’s return to Belmont was not what he envisioned. He’s getting back in the swing of NYRA, but he’s taken copious notes from Aqueduct. Tread lightly the first week or two until the Conductor gets a firm grasp on the turf and dirt. Then hold on to dear life. The train will be humming before you can say skip. Skip.

Race 5: 1 Mile. Clm 40000n2L

#5 Keen Heir (8/1) – Shipping in from Keeneland 1st off the claim, he ran a solid 3rd sprinting last time behind a next out winner. He’s been working well since and adds blinkers today for the first time. There is very little early speed in this race and he should get an ideal trip on the lead or up close to a moderate pace. This boy looks Keen to steal it.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Alw 50000s

#7 Shinsun (8/1) – He’s a deep closer, so a lot has to go right. However, there looks to be a quick early pace and the Conductor thinks he’s the most talented runner in the field. He ran really strong late pace figures last year and had a couple of brutal trips. He broke is maiden on debut at Belmont at this distance too, so the layoff is no concern. At a square price the Conductor will take a shot.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) MC 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #13 Chess Spectacular (6/1) – The Conductor is really hoping this colt draws in. In his first start on the grass last time, he had a bad turf trip. He traveled 3-wide and uncovered on both turns and still made a nice move entering the stretch. He’ll get a terrible post if he draws in, but this group is much weaker than the bunch he faced last time. The Conductor will key him at a square price.

Belmont

Belmont Park Sunday Picks — May 7, 2023 | Post-Derby Full Card Handicapping

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A horse with a jockey in red gear standing on the dirt racetrack at Belmont Park.

The Conductor is exhausted after yesterday. After review, Derma actually ran a really good 6th after missing the break completely. That’s racing sometimes, but that doesn’t pay the bills. Passengers go back to their normal lives and the Conductor gets back in the lab. To Belmont Park we go, Skip.

Race 4: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 90k

#6 Certified Loverboy (15/1) – This colt ran well sprinting at Saratoga last summer. Then he showed grit in the slop going a mile. Now he returns off the layoff stretching out on turf for the first time. There isn’t any early speed in this race and the Conductor is hoping to send him right to the front. He’s expecting big effort out of this Loverboy at a big number.

Belmont Park

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 32000

#5 Alpine Queen (5/1) – There is no other early pace in this Belmont sprint and she’ll be all alone on the lead. With mediocre runners behind her, the Conductor will bet they won’t catch her.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) F. License Fee Stakes

#4 Minaun (15/1) – #12 Star Devine (3/1) is the rightful favorite in this race and Minaun ran well exiting the same race. She bobbled at the break and spotted the field multiple lengths. She rallied well and made up significant ground in the stretch. At 5x the price she’s improving and has a chance to light up the tote.

Kentucky Derby 2023 Picks & Breakdown — May 6, 2023 | The Conductor’s Derby Day Plays

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A racehorse with a jockey in a blue and yellow uniform galloping at the Dubai World Cup event, showcasing speed and athleticism.

A 30/1 exacta to kick off Oaks Friday for the Conductor had him out for blood. However, his water pistol came up empty the rest of the card. Onto the big day. This has been one of the strangest weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby the Conductor can remember. Four scratches and now a 19 horse field. Only Mr. Ductor can help us in a race like this, Let’s Ride.

#1 Hit Show (30/1) – Exiting the Wood Memorial, the weakest prep race, this colt certainly won’t win. However, he does have strong late pace figures and will get a ground saving trip near the back of the pack. He’ll be off everyone’s tickets and the Conductor can see him sneaking up the rail to hit the superfecta. At best he finishes 4th.

#2 Verifying (15/1)

He’s steadily progressing and ran very well in the Blue Grass. There’s nothing to knock and he wouldn’t shock the Conductor if he pulled the upset. But, like most of the others in here he’s nothing special, the Conductor will be using him underneath only. At best he finishes 2nd.

#3 Two Phil’s (12/1) – He’s coming in with the fastest American speed figure, but it was over synthetic. Can he translate it to dirt? The Conductor says no at a relatively short price. He’s scared to chuck him out of the trifecta completely because he does have upside, but we have to make stands in this race. At best he finishes 2nd.

#4 Confidence Game (20/1) – He’s been working well since his win in the sloppy Rebel over two months ago. Winning is asking too much, but he’s a bomb the Conductor won’t chuck out of the trifecta. He’ll be forwardly placed in a Kentucky Derby without a ton of early speed. Desormeax does well with runners off these types of breaks too. He’s 19% with a +$1.22 ROI with starters returning off 46-90 day layoffs. At best he finishes 3rd.

#5 Tapit Trice (5/1)

He can win this race and has done nothing wrong. He’s shown he can overcome trouble and has run strong late pace figures every time. He’ll be on a few backup tickets for the Conductor, but he wont be leaning on him at a short price.

#6 Kingsbarns (12/1) – He set the slowest early pace imaginable in the Louisiana Derby and had no choice but to win. He’ll be forced to use much more early speed and will have to show a new dimension for the first time. He’s not for the the Conductor. Toss

#7 Reincarnate (50/1) – The Conductor would love to use him, but there’s not much to like. He looks to be a cut below the contenders. toss.

#8 Mage (15/1)

The Conductor is higher on this horse than most of the public. He overcame a very poor start in the Florida Derby and made a eye catching middle move. If he can finally break well today the Conductor thinks he’ll be in the mix at the top of the stretch. The distance may be just a little to far for him. Mr. Ductor won’t talk you off him, but at best he finishes 2nd on his tickets.

#11 Disarm (30/1) – He’s a tricky one for the Conductor. He ran really well in the Louisiana Derby two starts back where he closed strongly behind the aforementioned crawling pace. However, his Lexington effort left a lot to be desired. The Conductor may use him in 4th in the superfecta, but no higher.

#12 Jace’s Road (50-1) – The Conductor thinks Cox will send this horse with his major contenders being closers. He’ll show early speed and then fade to the back of the pack. Toss.

#13 Sun Thunder (50/1) – He needs to step forward to hit the board and there are too many other solid closers in the field to warrant consideration from the Ductor. Toss

#14 Angel of Empire (8/1)

He continues to progress for Cox and another legitimate contender that is tough to knock. He can win this race, but will have to do it from the back of the back. The Conductor is slightly against him at a short price. He will allow him to finish 2nd and no better.

#15 Forte (3/1)

He’s the worst kind of favorite for the Ductor. The Conductor either wants to love him or hate him and he’s apathetic towards this colt. The Conductor thinks he’ll run well and hit the board. But, at a short price he’s a deep closer and the Ductor projects a moderate early pace. Another Derby favorite that will be looking to ruin the Ductor’s Day.

#16 Raise Cain (50/1) – Unless it’s muddy, the Conductor can’t make a case. Toss.

*Gullet Shot of the 2023 Kentucky Derby #17 Derma Sotogake (10/1)

“Mr. Ductor this is the longest thing I’ve read in weeks. I’m usually listen to audio books only on the train, when will you get to the horse you love?” Shut up and sit down passenger, we’re finally here. You can throw a blanket around 6 or 7 horses in this race that are tough to separate, but there is only one potential superstar. This Japanese import made a mockery of the UAE Derby and couldn’t have looked better doing it. Japan has dominated racing across the globe as of late and this year they stamp their dominance in the Kentucky Derby. The Conductor has been a sucker with the UAE shippers before, but this one’s different. He loved his work over the Churchill track and he looks to get a great trip tracking a moderate pace. He’s versatile enough to work his own trip and he’s more talented than the rest. Let sake be the Conductor’s Saturday Stew of Choice. Skip.

Kentucky Derby

#18 Rocket Can (30/1) – He’s a cut below this group and looks to get a wide trip with his running style. Toss.

#21 Cyclone Mischief (20/1) – The Conductor will like this colt when he cuts back in distance vs weaker, not today. Toss.

*Bonus 2023 Kentucky Derby Esophagus Slice #22 Mandarin Hero (20/1)

The Conductor was hoping the other Japanese colt would draw in and he got his wish. This colt is as gritty as they come and is on the improve. It doesn’t matter what the surface or distance, if you run up next to this boy he’s going to fight you tooth and nail to the wire. The Conductor liked his Santa Anita Derby effort and thinks he wins that race if they kept running another 1/8 of a mile…which they do today. If Derma Sotogake loses, the Conductor will be hoping its to his country mate.

Kentucky Derby

#23 King Russell (50/1) – The Conductor needs to rest before the big day. Toss.

Kentucky Derby Saturday Undercard Picks — May 6, 2023 | Derby Day Full Card at Churchill Downs

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Group of men in colorful suits at an event, one holding a drink and wearing a conductor's hat, showcasing vibrant fashion and fun atmosphere.

The Conductor’s head is spinning, three Kentucky Derby scratches and we’re not even at Oaks Day. This weekend is going to be a war, but a war we shall win. Start turning a jack, laying track, and pick up a shovel too. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 1 Mile. Knicks Go Overnight Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Three Technique (20/1) – This one turn mile is loaded with early pace and it looks ripe for an upset. Three Technique’s best races have come at this distance, including a 2nd by a neck at Churchill behind Cody’s Wish last summer. Cody’s Wish would be 1/5 in this race. They prepped Three technique off the bench for this race too, and it went exactly as planned. He  ran evenly at too short of a distance for him. Now, he stretches out to his best distance and looks to get an ideal pace scenario. The Conductor will be shocked if he doesn’t hit the trifecta at a juicy number.

Kentucky Derby

Race 8: 1 Mile. G2 Pat Day Mile Stakes

#7 Fort Bragg (9/2) – Another one turn mile, another race with a wicked pace. This is one of the Conductor’s favorite races every Derby undercard. He’s collected copious amounts of coal over the years from this affair, and this year looks no different. This colt looks primed for a cutback to one turn exiting the Kentucky Derby trail. He’s pressed hot paces against much tougher and proven he can’t get two turns against the top competition. There’s no shame in that, 9/2 is just fine in this spot.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. G1 Churchill Downs Stakes

#10 Endorsed (5/1) – The aforementioned #7 Cody’s Wish (4/5) is clearly the one to beat, but he’ll be up against it off the layoff and the pace scenario. This race has absolutely no early speed for a sprint. You could get into the stew and make a case for #8 Fortin Hill (20/1) to wire them. However, the Conductor thinks Gaffalione will be aggressive like last time and have Endorsed pressing the pace. Endorsed has turned into a new animal this year and will be tough to run down in the stretch if he gets the jump on Cody’s Wish. The Conductor will certainly take a shot at 5x the price.

Kentucky Oaks Friday Picks — May 5, 2023 | Oaks Day at Churchill Downs

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Two women wearing pink outfits and large decorative hats, smiling together at an event, with a black-and-white photo of an older man in a cap in between them.

Its officially Kentucky Derby week passengers and the Conductor hasn’t seen sunlight in days. I am so humbled that he bestows all of his knowledge on us for free. We truly are not worthy. Anyway, he’s crawled out of his capping lair and dropped his Kentucky Oaks Day work on my desk. Rumor has it, a Derby podcast will be up tomorrow too. Let’s pick up a couple hundred thousand Friday and roll it over into Saturday. Skip.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Modesty Stakes

#2 Didia (5/1) – This Argentinian star has steadily improved with each start in the states. She got the job done for the Conductor last time off the bench in impressive fashion. She draws well today and the Conductor will happily back her vs the Chad Brown favorites off layoffs. If you’re looking for even more value in the trifecta, #1 Sweet Dani Girl (12/1) will be all alone on the lead an can hang round for a piece.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.300K Unbridled Sidney Stakes

#2 Salvaje (20/1) – #11 Caravel (4/5) is clearly the one to beat, but she draws a tough outside post and this race is loaded with early speed. Salvaje is steadily progressing and will get a perfect setup. She’s one of the few closers in the field and looks primed to run her best in her 2nd start off a layoff. Even if Caravel is too much for this group, she can inject value by hitting the board.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Edgewood Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 Flashy Gem (10/1) – There is absolutely no speed in this Edgewood and this filly will be all alone on the lead. She romped to break her maiden on the front end last year on turf and has progressed on synthetic since. Her synthetic figures fit with this group and the Conductor sees them translating back to the turf with her breeding. Saez fits this mount perfectly too. He’ll be aggressive early and make them come and get her down the stretch.

Kentucky Oaks

Race 11: 1 1/8 F.G1 Longines Kentucky Oaks

#11 Defining Purpose (12/1) – The Conductor has a keen eye on the forecast this weekend. As of now, he thinks the rain will hold off and we’ll have a fast track on Friday. If it does rain, then erase everything you’re about to read from your small brains. This filly was beaten handily by the deserved favorite in this race, #7 Wet Paint (5/2), but both those races were on a sloppy track. Throw out those races and you can see a natural progression to her Ashland win in the form. She looks to get a nice trip again today, sitting just behind a contested early lead. The Conductor thinks she’s improving and her Ashland win wasn’t a fluke. He’ll be keying her in the verticals.