Free horse racing picks, best bets, and full-card handicapping from The Pony Conductor. Race-by-race analysis and value plays across America’s top tracks — Gulfstream, Keeneland, Churchill Downs, Belmont, Saratoga, Santa Anita and more — every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
The Conductor will be staying at NYRA for the time being. The product is what it is, the takeout is what it is, and there are a lot of things that kick horseplayers in the dick, but at least NYRA is doing a little something. The late Pick 5 is allegedly CAW-free, and that matters.
1) 3 / 6,7
2) 1,3 / 2,6
3) 1,3 / 2,7
4) 1 / 2,3
5) 1,6 / 2,4,5
6) 5 / 2,8
7) 5 / 1,3,7
8) 6,9 / 1,3,4
9) 1,5 / 9,10,12
Good Luck, Passengers.
Good Luck Passengers
1) 1,6 / 5
2) 2,5 / 8
3) 1 / 2,4
4) 2,1,4 / 6,7
5) 11,12 / 2,3,4,8
6) 5,8 / 1,2,3,4,6,7,9
7) 9.3 / 5,6
8) 11 / 1,2,8,9 / 3,4
9) 2,1
10) 5,8 / 1,2
11) 2,4,8,10 / 3,6,11,12
Average Oaks Day for the Conductor with a brutal 2nd in the Oaks. Less chalk today, more bombs. Skip.
Win: #18 Further Ado (currently 6/1)
The Conductor is going with #18 Further Ado in the Derby, currently at 6/1. He’s the most talented horse in the race, and the Conductor sees Johnny V giving him a good ride. The race dynamics have changed a lot with the scratches. Cheap speed has drawn in from the outside, and there will be a quicker pace than anticipated earlier in the week.
If you’re looking for a longshot to hit the board, the Conductor’s favorite price at the moment is #11 Incredibolt at 26/1. He dusted a weak field last time. However, he didn’t have a great trip and ran a big late pace figure. He can make the trifecta and superfecta pay.
| Race | A | B | C | D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 6, 7 | 2, 4, 8, 9, 11 | — | — |
| 3 | 13 | 4, 5, 9, 12, 14 | — | — |
| 4 | 5 | 4 | — | — |
| 5 | 7 | 3, 9 | 4, 5, 11 | — |
| 6 | 6 | 2, 4, 10, 11 | — | — |
| 7 | 2 | 8 | — | — |
| 8 | 6 | 4, 5, 8, 9 | — | — |
| 9 | 3, 4, 12 | 5, 6, 7, 10 | — | — |
| 10 | 6 | 2 | 1, 5, 7 | — |
| 11 | 5, 6, 7 | 1, 3, 4, 9, 10 | — | — |
| 12 (Kentucky Derby) | 18 | 6, 8, 11, 12 | 1, 7, 10, 15 | 3, 14, 16, 17, 19 |
| 13 | 8 | — | — | — |
| 14 | 11, 12 | 3, 7, 8, 9, 14 | — | — |
Good luck Passengers
Below are the Conductor’s plays for the rest of the card, headlined by a live longshot in the Kentucky Oaks.
Win: #5 Meaning (currently 8/1)
The Oaks is wide open this year, and the Conductor is taking a shot with #5 Meaning at a square price of 8/1. She was up close to a hot pace last time out and still finished the job. There isn’t much speed in this race and she should get the jump on the field as they turn for home. Meaning has every chance to hold off the closers in the lane. Lets fill the caboose with coal for Derby Day. Skip
| Race | A | B |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 9 | 2, 10, 11 |
| 4 | 1, 7 | 3, 4, 11 |
| 5 | 11, 10 | 1, 5, 6 |
| 6 | 5, 6 | 2, 8, 12 |
| 7 | 3, 4, 6 | 5, 9 |
| 8 | 6, 8 | 3, 4, 9 |
| 9 | 8 | 2, 3, 7 |
| 10 | 6 | 3, 5 |
| 11 | 7, 9 | 1, 5, 8 |
| 12 | 4, 9 | 2, 3, 5, 8, 11 |
| 13 | 5 | 2, 9, 10, 11 |
The Conductor apologizes for the late post. Hopefully you passengers had the 19/1 winner in the first.
On to the rest of the card at Santa Anita.
Good luck passengers
A poor finishing day at Keeneland with the chalk dominating means the Conductor isn’t headed to Louisville just yet. He like the card at Aqueduct as long as the races stay on the turf.
Let’s have a prosperous day in New York
Sunday’s 8th dropped a 152/1 exacta, hope you were aboard. Closing day at Keeneland is bittersweet. The Conductor will miss the turf, and somebody up top really does need to do something about the CAWS. One more swing before the meet packs up.
| Race | A Contenders | B Contenders |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 7, 2 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | 1, 2 | 5, 7 |
| 4 | 3, 4, 5, 7, 8 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | 4, 6 |
| 6 | 4, 5 | 1, 6 |
| 7 | 9, 4 | 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 |
| 8 | 1, 9 | 3, 6 |
| 9 | 6 | 1, 7, 8 |
| 10 | 4, 6, 8, 11 | 1, 9 |
See you trackside. Then we’re off to Louisville for Derby prep next week. Skip
Good bounce back Saturday for the Conductor. Let’s finish the weekend strong.
Let’s whack’em right between the eyes. Skip.
| Race | A | B | C |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| 2 | 2, 5, 7, 9 | 1, 6 | |
| 3 | 3, 7, 10 | 1, 4, 5, 6 | |
| 4 | 1, 2 | 4, 6, 9 | |
| 5 | 7 | 1 | 2, 9, 11 |
| 6 | 1 | 3, 9, 10 | |
| 7 | 2 | 6 | 1, 4, 8, 9 |
| 8 | 6, 8 | 4, 10 | 7, 13 |
| 9 | 3, 6 | 1, 2, 8, 11 |
The Conductor sucked yesterday. Let’s be honest about it. The 15/1 horse in the turf sprint that got steamed down to 6/1 after the gates opened, and then won on the lead for fun — when he’s never been on the lead in his life — really soured the Conductor on Keeneland.
It’s tough to love this game when the CAWS are in bed with the tracks and the greedy bastards don’t give a shit about the horseplayer. That’s not a game. That’s a tax collection dressed up in silks.
But the Conductor doesn’t quit. The passengers don’t quit. We show up. We cap harder. We try again. Skip.
Be wary of the rain today — there might be some late scratches. The forecast doesn’t look bad enough to take the races off the turf, but watch the board before post time. Scratches reshape this card. Adapt accordingly.
| Race | Contenders |
|---|---|
| Race 1 | 1 / 2, 4 |
| Race 2 | 3, 4 / 2, 8, 9 |
| Race 3 | 3, 7 / 1, 8, 9, 10, 12 |
| Race 4 | 2 / 7 |
| Race 5 | 9, 10, 11 / 1, 7, 8 |
| Race 6 | 3 / 4, 8 / 7, 9, 10 |
| Race 7 | 1 / 3, 4, 7 |
| Race 8 | 3, 6 / 1, 11 |
| Race 9 | 1, 5, 8 / 4, 6 |
| Race 10 | 2, 4 / 1, 3, 5 |
| Race 11 | 12 / 3, 5, 7, 10 |
Watch the scratches. Don’t chase the steam. And remember — the Conductor doesn’t owe the CAWS a damn thing. We ride at our own pace.
New passenger? Subscribe to The Conductor’s Scroll — free to board, First Class for the full weekend card. And if you want to understand what the Conductor is actually doing before he writes these, start with the beginner’s guide to handicapping a horse race.
The first Saturday in May. Twenty three-year-olds line up at Churchill Downs to run a mile and a quarter under the most scrutiny any horse will see in its life. Half the country watches. Most of it bets. Almost none of it handicaps.
This is the Conductor’s living guide to the 2026 Kentucky Derby. Contenders, pace scenario, prep-race analysis, and pick updates as the field is finalized. Bookmark this page — it gets updated every week between now and post time.
The Kentucky Derby is the first leg of the Triple Crown. It is run at 1¼ miles on the dirt at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on the first Saturday in May, for three-year-olds only. The field is capped at 20 starters — making it the largest race most of these horses have ever run in, and a pace scenario unlike anything on the calendar.
Entry is governed by the Kentucky Derby Points System. Horses earn points by running well in a series of designated Derby prep races from the previous fall through April. The top 20 point-earners make the gate.
The Derby prep season runs from the fall of the prior year through the last major preps in April. The biggest points-earning preps on the 2026 trail were:
The Derby is a different animal than any other race these horses have run. Four things to keep front of mind:
Twenty horses, a 1¼-mile distance almost none of them have seen, and adrenaline. The pace is almost always faster than it should be. Closers and mid-pack stalkers have won far more Derbies in the modern era than frontrunners.
Post 1 (the rail) and posts 17–20 (the far outside) have historically been burial grounds. The rail horse gets buried in the pack. The wide horses burn energy getting over. The sweet spot is typically posts 5–15.
Most of these colts haven’t been beyond 1⅛ miles. A third of them will not get the distance. Look at the dam side — proven distance sires like Tapit, Curlin, Into Mischief, and Uncle Mo produce horses that finish their races. Quick-closing sires that mostly get sprinters do not.
The Derby winner has almost always run a sub-100 Beyer in one of its last two preps, broken well, and shown the ability to rate. Horses that need a perfect pace to win don’t win Derbies. Horses that can overcome traffic do.
This section updates weekly as the prep trail concludes. Final picks, best bets, and exotic ticket construction will post the Thursday before Derby Day.
Check back for:
The Derby is the one day of the year when everyone bets. That matters, because it creates value. Casual money floods in on the names — past Derby winners’ sons, horses with good stories, the favorite. That pushes live longshots to bigger prices than they deserve.
New to handicapping? Start with our beginner’s guide to handicapping a horse race before you dig into the Derby form.
The Conductor publishes picks every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday during Derby prep season — Keeneland, Gulfstream Park, Churchill Downs, and Santa Anita. Follow every prep race and you’ll head into Derby Day with a real read on this year’s class.
Subscribe to The Conductor’s Scroll — free to board. First Class passengers get the full Derby Day card, the Conductor’s final ticket construction, and every exotic play 48 hours before post time.
