Raging Sea made it a solid Oaks Friday for the Conductor. But Oaks Friday just determines the amount of coal you have to fire on Saturday. Let’s make it a Derby Day to remember. Skip.
Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 125000n1x
#3 Valentinian (6/1) – This colt has impressed the Conductor in his first two starts. He’s closed into slow paces and run huge late pace figures. His last race at Keeneland was against an inside speed bias too. The only horse who can beat him in the race is #5 Goal Oriented (4/1). He’s a Baffert monster that looked like the goods on debut.
Race 4: 1 Mile. Knicks Go Overnight Stakes
#12 Patriot Spirit (8/1) – This colt got caught in a wicked pace duel stretching out in distance last time. He has numbers to run back to that can win this race, and he looks primed to run his best shortening back to a mile. Patriot Spirit should get an ideal outside stalking trip and pounce as they enter the stretch.
Race 6: 1 Mile. G2 Pat Day Mile
#2 Built (7/2) – This colt made an early move into a hot pace going longer in the Louisiana Derby last time. Now he finally gets off the Derby trail and cuts back to a more favorable distance for him. The Conductor thinks he’s the most talented runner in the field and 7/2 or better is more than fair.
Race 10: 7 Furlongs. F.G1 Derby City Distaff
#2 Kopion (8/1) – This morning line is terrible. Kopion will probably vie for favoritism in the 3/1 range. Even so, the Conductor thinks she lays over this field. The other contenders are coming off layoffs hoping to fire their best while Kopian is in razor sharp form.
Race 12: 1 1/14 G1 Kentucky Derby
After scratches, there are only 7 contenders that can win this race. #3 Final Gambit (15/1), #5 American Promise (12/1), #7 Luxor Cafe (9/1), #8 Journalism (7/2), #18 Sovereignty (9/1) and #21 Baeza (18/1).
Journalism is certainly the one to beat, and Sovereignty is no slouch as well. At the current prices however, the Conductor is going to play #21 Baeza (18/1). He’s improving with each start and trainer John Shirreffs takes his time developing his horses. He had a wide trip in the Santa Anita Derby and was very game when Journalism came running in the stretch. He gets a dirt rider upgrade to Prat today and the Conductor trusts he can work out a trip despite the far outside post. The Conductor sees him taking the lead as they turn for home and it will be up to the closers to run him down. At 18/1 the Conductor will certainly pay to find out.
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