Alright! We’re going to target the trifecta at TP for race 5 this Wednesday. With the way a lot of races develop at Turfway, boxing multiple long shots in these type of races can be a profitable strategy with large payouts. I’ll cover some construction ideas at the end.
Race 5: 1 Mile OC 40000n2x
#1 Liar’s Poker (12/1) – First time on AW for this gelding but he’s doing so with a large drop in class. He’s also cutting back 1 furlong here after pushing the pace and dueling last race before tiring in the stretch. Being inside coming into the stretch is crucial in most races here, and with this race having questionable pace I can see Liar’s Poker either setting a slow pace or being right off a moderate pace and in a good position.
#6 First Strike (6/1) – 3/5 straight up at TP and has shown more propensity to AW than other surfaces. Labeled as an S style runner in Brisnet but last 1 mile at TP sat just off an average/slighty below average pace to make a strong move into the stretch and pull away to win by 5.5 lengths. Moves up in class, less so than a lot of other horses in this race, but does so after a win and this is only his 2nd race back off a layoff. Trying to catch an improving horse on the upswing here.
#2 Mercante (3/1) – How you view this horse should determine your trifecta construction method. He’s moving up in class after winning his first AW race last out at a mile against weaker competition. The win was impressive, as he circled the competition coming into the stretch and pulled away. Something that typically only classier horses are able to do at TP. He gets Irving Moncada again who is 23% at TP this meet. And a lot of the ROI stats would indicate this a good spot to bet this team.
#7 Chiron (30/1) – Coming off a sprint at TP with good sprinting horses where the pace got away from him but improved in the stretch to gain some ground. The stretch-out to a mile should be beneficial in this spot. One of the fewer horses in this race with experience at this class level, albeit mainly on dirt and turf.
Ticket construction:
If you love the morning line favorite here, it would make sense to key him in and drop a lot of these longshots in underneath (there’s even a couple others you could get to doing so, like Gamer and Banjo Chris, both who should be able to close into any pace that may develop). However, I typically will discount the favorites in races at TP where there isn’t a clear class distinction.
I’m inclined to just box the horses I’ve listed here. Or even move Mercante underneath, keep Liar’s Poker and First Strike on top and throw in some of the other long shots I like until I reach $24-40 on the ticket.
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