If you trailed us last article, you would have had 2/3 horses in a trifecta that paid out $9k. We at least hit a small win bet on the 40/1 winner who became our favorite to win after a scratch took out our other horse. Just a question of time until we nail one of these big ones.
Race 5: 1 Mile OC 25000n1x
#3 Manfredi (15/1) – This four year old is showing signs of heavy improvement his last few races with his new trainer Eric Reed. Reed dropped him in class for his maiden and he’s come back to blow by weak competition in slow paces to win by 12, 4.5, and 11 lengths his last three races. He’s been tried at different distances and surfaces, and is worth betting on his improvement for his return to All Weather, first time AW with Lasix.
#9 Big to Do (10/1) – Similar story to Manfredi in that this horse has a short racing career and has been tried at different surfaces and distances. This will be his 2nd race on All Weather at a mile and he had a strong mid race move last race and lost but only by 1.5 lengths against similar competition. Trainer Glenn Wismer has a +0.92 ROI on AW and a similar or better performance as last time should be enough to at least get into the money here.
#11 Hilarious Affair (7/2) – Edgar Morales comes to Turfway to jockey this horse for Michael Maker. He’s stretching out an additional 2 furlongs from last race here and has shown good finishing speed so the longer distance could be the formula. He had a strong finish last race at 6 furlongs at this class level despite a wide trip. The recent workouts at Turfway also indicate a horse primed for a good showing
Notable Mentions:
#7 Royal Sandrin (10/1) – This horse returns to AW where he has shown good late speed before at Turfway. He cuts back 1/8 mile and drops in class. 3/3 in the money at Turfway and should be able to finish into any pace that develops.
#1 Aleman (5/1) – Aleman gets a jockey upgrade here after leading a fast pace last race at Turfway. He’s put out some good workouts on AW since then as well. With there being questionable pace in this race, he could get a nice trip sitting right off a couple of the horses coming into this from sprint races but showing no ability to route, and get first shot at them.
Bet Structure:
Similar to last race we covered, if you’re high on the favorite Hilarious Affair it would make sense to key him and box in a lot of these longer shots underneath. If you think the sprinters will cause some pace havoc Royal Sandrin also deserves consideration as the winner. However, to capitalize on the trends at Turfway I’m inclined to put the favorite underneath with the notable mention horses and leave Manfredi and Big to Do on top.
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