Please hold the rain off Friday and Saturday pony gods. If the slop comes, then it’s up to us foolish passengers to cap on our own. We don’t need that on racing’s biggest day. Here’s the Conductor’s Kentucky Derby battle card. Skip.
Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint
*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Our Shot (10/1) – This gelding drew the 10 post last time in the Shakertown Stakes and it cost him. He made a massive 5-wide move on the turn and the Conductor was impressed that he was able to sustain his run for 4th. The Conductor would argue he could have won that race with a cleaner trip and we’ll find out if he’s right today. Our Shot gets a better post and is taking on many of the same foes. Best of all, he’ll be a better price.
Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes
#2 Walkathon (10/1) – This is a very weak Grade 2 field in the Conductor’s opinion. #11 Coppice (5/1) is the clear class of the group, but she draws a tough post and will be a short price while making her first start in the US. Of the Americans, the Conductor likes Walkathon quite a bit. She showed real talent in 2022 and is finally rounding back into form. She just missed two back and ran better than it looks last time taking on tougher. Walkathon ran evenly in the G1 Jenny Wily in a complete merry go round race, with the winner going gate to wire. She looks to get a much more favorable trip here, saving ground and stalking a contested early pace. Most importantly, she’ll finally get Leparoux off her back. Hernandez hops aboard and she will appreciate the better pilot.
Race 10: 7 Furlongs. G1 Churchill Downs Stakes
#4 Mr. Wireless (6/1) – This gelding ran admirably last year routing, he just couldn’t quite finish off his races. He was crying for a cutback to one turn and got his wish last time off the bench. He obliterated an allowance field and ran a speed figure that can put him in the winner’s circle today. Making his 2nd start off the layoff, the Conductor doesn’t see how you can’t bet this horse if this morning line is close to accurate.
Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. G1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic
#1 Integration (5/1) – This colt handled the some of the contenders in here last year and his form has been muddied since. He’s had two tough trips in a row and now the Conductor is buying while many less skilled passengers will be selling. Last time in the Makers Mark Mile, he made a strong move while wide to get up for 3rd over a yielding turf course, at a distance too short for him. Now making his 3rd start of the year with a nice rail draw, he’s going to fire a peak effort.
Race 12: 1 1/4 Mile. 1 1/4 Kentucky Derby
#17 Fierceness (5/2) – The 2024 Kentucky Derby goes through one horse. He is significantly faster than this field and if he runs his race it’s over. However, he’s thrown in two bad races when circumstances haven’t gone his way. The Conductor is normally allergic to chalk and it’s hard to stomach short price on a horse who has shown flaws. He’s just so much more talented than this group. The way to play this Derby is to single and press him on top of most of your tickets, and then have a few backups that don’t have him hitting the board. He’s either going to dominate or finish 10th. More likely than not Fierceness gets a patented Johnny V Ride pressing a moderate pace and wins this race handily.
#2 Sierra Leone (3/1) – If you’re betting this horse to win, then you need to find a new game. He is a solid closer but is not in the same league as Fierceness and will be a similar price. He is likely to hit the board, but if Sierra Leone wins the Conductor will spend his Saturday night in the sewer.
#4 Catching Freedom (8/1) – You need to be very weary of the two improving Brad Cox runners in here. Catching Freedom showed a nice turn of foot in the Louisiana Derby and will be finishing well late.
#7 Honor Marie (20/1) – This Colt was outkicked by Catching Freedom last time, but still ran a solid late pace figure closing into a moderate pace. He will have no problem getting the distance and the Conductor will use him underneath in the verticals at a big price.
#8 Just A Touch (10/1) – He’s the other Brad Cox horse and the most likely to jump up and upset Fierceness in the Conductor’s opinion. Stretching out in distance last time he pressed a blistering pace in the Bluegrass and did well to hold onto 2nd. The Conductor doesn’t see the pace being too hot in this Kentucky Derby and this colt is moving in the right direction.
#11 Forever Young (10/1) – If you remember last year’s Kentucky Derby, the Conductor touted the Japanese invader Derma Sotogake. He missed the break and still finished 6th that day and then went on to finish 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (So the Conductor was right all along although he got nothing to show for it). Japan has the best racing in the world today and they have another solid horse shipping in this year. The Conductor will certainly be using Forever Young underneath Fierceness and he can win if Fierceness flops. A Japanese horse is going to win a Kentucky Derby sooner rather than later.
#15 Domestic Product (30/1) – This is the bomb the Conductor is most intrigued by. He’s yet to run a fast speed figure, but that’s only because he’s been closing into insanely slow paces. The Tampa Bay Derby was a complete crawl up front and Domestic Product still passed 5 horses to win easy. His late pace figures are enormous and Irad will likely put him in a position to run his best. He can light up the exotics.
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