Good bounce back Saturday for the Conductor. Let’s finish the weekend strong.
Let’s whack’em right between the eyes. Skip.
| Race | A | B | C |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| 2 | 2, 5, 7, 9 | 1, 6 | |
| 3 | 3, 7, 10 | 1, 4, 5, 6 | |
| 4 | 1, 2 | 4, 6, 9 | |
| 5 | 7 | 1 | 2, 9, 11 |
| 6 | 1 | 3, 9, 10 | |
| 7 | 2 | 6 | 1, 4, 8, 9 |
| 8 | 6, 8 | 4, 10 | 7, 13 |
| 9 | 3, 6 | 1, 2, 8, 11 |
The Conductor sucked yesterday. Let’s be honest about it. The 15/1 horse in the turf sprint that got steamed down to 6/1 after the gates opened, and then won on the lead for fun — when he’s never been on the lead in his life — really soured the Conductor on Keeneland.
It’s tough to love this game when the CAWS are in bed with the tracks and the greedy bastards don’t give a shit about the horseplayer. That’s not a game. That’s a tax collection dressed up in silks.
But the Conductor doesn’t quit. The passengers don’t quit. We show up. We cap harder. We try again. Skip.
Be wary of the rain today — there might be some late scratches. The forecast doesn’t look bad enough to take the races off the turf, but watch the board before post time. Scratches reshape this card. Adapt accordingly.
| Race | Contenders |
|---|---|
| Race 1 | 1 / 2, 4 |
| Race 2 | 3, 4 / 2, 8, 9 |
| Race 3 | 3, 7 / 1, 8, 9, 10, 12 |
| Race 4 | 2 / 7 |
| Race 5 | 9, 10, 11 / 1, 7, 8 |
| Race 6 | 3 / 4, 8 / 7, 9, 10 |
| Race 7 | 1 / 3, 4, 7 |
| Race 8 | 3, 6 / 1, 11 |
| Race 9 | 1, 5, 8 / 4, 6 |
| Race 10 | 2, 4 / 1, 3, 5 |
| Race 11 | 12 / 3, 5, 7, 10 |
Watch the scratches. Don’t chase the steam. And remember — the Conductor doesn’t owe the CAWS a damn thing. We ride at our own pace.
New passenger? Subscribe to The Conductor’s Scroll — free to board, First Class for the full weekend card. And if you want to understand what the Conductor is actually doing before he writes these, start with the beginner’s guide to handicapping a horse race.
Yes, Mr. Conductor, Yes! I need to get my hands on his pony crystal ball. A nice 6/1 #gullet shot winner Thursday at Keeneland along with a 29/1 shot running 4th and a 44/1 shot running 3rd. We bow to him, but as always we passengers want more. You’re only as good as your last race. Skip.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Mrs. Astor (6/1) – The Conductor was very impressed with this filly’s maiden breaker last time. She was wide and uncovered the entire turn and still powered home, running a strong late pace figure. This race is wide open and she should get a nice ground saving trip. 5/1 or better would have the Conductor giddy with joy. Let’s make it back to back #gullets.
#4 Accomplished Girl (6/1) – The Conductor cashed on this filly last time after a tough trip in her debut. She ran them off their feet and will now take on winners for the first time. Even though last time she went gate to wire, the Conductor’s trained eye sees that she’s handy enough to stalk and pounce. There will be a scorching pace set up front in this one. The Conductor is looking for Zayas to sit just behind the dueling leaders and tip out entering the stretch.
#6 In Love (30/1) – #7 Modern Games (3/5) obviously beats this over matched field. However, we can still make some money and sweet love in this race. This old gelding can beat the rest of the bunch with his A game and he looks primed for a top effort. He made a middle move in his prep race on synthetic and now gets back to his best distance and surface today. He’s won a Grade 1 over this Keeneland turf course going a mile and we just need him to run 2nd.
A chalk filled Saturday is never good for the Conductor. Back to California we go. Let’s hit the Golden Hour Pick 4. Skip.
#4 Sword Zorro (3/1) – He had no chance last time trying to close into a slow pace. Making his 2nd start off the bench vs a weak stakes field, the Conductor will single him.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Commas Save Lives (12/1) – Taking a big drop in class and switching back to dirt where she’s won, this filly will appreciate the shorter distance. She pressed a wicked pace last time and did well to split the field. This group is miles weaker than she’s been facing.
#5 Exclusive Speaker (30/1) – The Conductor can see anything happening in this race and he finds this gelding intriguing. He’s steadily progressing and stretching out to a route for the first time. If he likes the added distance, he can hit the board and light up the trifecta at a monster number.
#12 Big Talker (5/1) – The Conductor likes this gelding quite a bit to end the Golden Hour Pick 4. He’s the only proven turf router in the group that is also a closer. He looks to get a perfect setup here with a hot, contested pace up front.
Rough one at Santa Anita Friday. But, everyone knows Saturday racing is the only one that counts anyway. First solid card of the meet at Belmont today. Let’s Ride.
#7 Pandamom (3/1) – Making her first start as a 4 year old, the Conductor sees her as a standout in here. Her turf races have been consistently better than this group and the Conductor is against the favorite #4 English Breeze (5/2). She hasn’t run well in two years, how could you bet her at a short price?
#9 Ekhtibaar (20/1) – The Conductor sees a scenario where this old man is alone on the lead and could get brave down the stretch. However, the Conductor is looking at #1 Cheif Know it All (10/1) and #7 Allured (12/1) as interesting prices as well.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Welshman (20/1) – This gelding is bred to go long on the grass and is working bullets entering today. That 58 and change on the turf really catches his eye.
#7 Wicked Trick (6/1) – Drawn well to the outside, this gelding looks to get a perfect stalking trip and will be a solid price in a competitive field. His A race gives him every chance.
#2 Proven Strategies (10/1) – He’s been going too far in his last two starts. Now he gets the cutback in distance he needs today. He’s the lone speed in this race. The Conductor can see the Belmont jocks ignoring him until its too late.
The world is a sphere. If you dig a deep enough hole, you come out the other side. Louisiana Derby Day, Skip.
#1 Roadster (3/1) – A bit of a wild card with a new barn off a long layoff, but hopefully that causes his price to float up. His work tab is solid and he has the early speed to take it to this field. The Conductor trusts Johnny V to be aggressive.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Logical Myth (6/1) – The Ductor played him last time and he ran very well with some trouble. Getting back to firm ground today, he loves the Fair Grounds and has every chance vs this field.
#4 Li’l Tootsie (4/1) – She showed great versatility last time closing in the slop her first time routing. Her sprint effort on dirt two back was very fast and this morning line would be a great price.
#6 Mandaloun (8/5) – Nothing creative here. The Conductor sees him getting the same trip as last time and getting the job done
Mary had a little Whack! 20/1 on Law Professor yesterday fills the train with coal rolling into Big Cap Day. Do not let Santa Anita up for air! Skip!
#4 Bleu Ballon (4/1) – She has an early pace edge over this field and her finish sprinting last time was impressive. The added ground should be no issue.
#2 Kershaw (3/1) – This gelding ran very well last time closing into a slow pace and overcoming trouble. He’s added the ability to rate to his game and he’s the clear one to beat in the Ductor’s opinion.
#4 Shooters Shoot (10/1) – Dropping out of a Grade 3 and stretching out 3rd off the layoff, he’s very dangerous as the lone speed. You must use him at a price.
#2 Dream Shake (5/1) – He was very impressive in his debut and blew away the Baffert favorite at 20/1. Stretching out for the first time, the Conductor sees the distance helping him.
#8 Loud Mouth (8/1) – Drawn well to the outside, this guy is in great form and looks to get a perfect stalking trip. He’s won 3 of his last 4 and had an excuse in his lone defeat.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Social Paranoia (8/1) – Cutting back to his best distance, he ran very well last time pressing wide vs tougher. In a wide-open race on paper, the Conductor is praying he stays near his morning line.
#5 Express Train (3/1) – He dominated in first try at this distance on dirt last time. His price will likely float up from his morning line and is faster than Maxfield on paper. Easy Big Cap Winner. Choo Choo!
0/3 yesterday has the Conductor scrounging the cupboards for the last tuna fish can. With Big Cap Day tomorrow, we’ll head out to Santa Anita for the weekend. Let’s Ride.
#1 Bella Renella (4/1) – Her work tab suggests she’ll be fit off the bench and her races last summer fit right in with this group. She’ll be a nice price in a small field and is dropping to her lowest career level.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Law Professor (6/1) – Stretching out at Santa Anita for the 1st time, this colt is working well and adds blinkers. McCarthy is 20% with a +$2.64 ROI this year with 1st time routers and Rosario takes the mount for a barn he rarely rides for. There are many reasons for this boy to jump forward.
*Scratched #1 Lovely Finish (12/1) – Exiting an easy maiden breaking win at Los Al off the bench, this mare has run figures competitive with this group at Santa Anita. Her price will likely be a big overlay with low % connections, but she can absolutely beat this group.
Well, the Conductor is in a hole entering a great Fountain of Youth Stakes Day. No excuses, just pick up a shovel and get back to work. Let’s Ride.
#8 Jakarta (15/1) – Stretching out off a short break, she’s the lone speed in a race devoid of any pace. She’s won at a mile on dirt and Mott is one of the best stretching them out. She The Conductor can see her stealing it on the front end, or at least holding on in the trifecta.
#5 Millefeuille (5/1) – #3 Vequist (7/5) is the clear one to beat, but her trainer is only 2/47 off a 90+ day layoff this year. This filly is the only one close to her on numbers and the Conductor likes her shortening back to a mile.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 War Like Goddess (10/1) – This filly has run monster late pace figures in her first two career starts and gets the acid test today. There aren’t any standouts in this field and the Conductor thinks she has loads of talent.
#1 Drain the Clock (5/1) – The Conductor liked the way he rated last time and won with ease. Stretching out for the first time, if he can get the distance, he’ll have every chance.
#5 Jirafales (15/1) – Re-rallying after being steadied hard on the turn last time, he galloped out well passed Drain the Clock. He will like every inch of ground.
Oh Oaklawn Park, how the Conductor missed you. No more snow in Arkansas, Skip.
#9 Calculated Risker (20/1) – #7 Hardly a Secret (5/2) looks like a standout in here, but the Conductor can see this gelding lighting up the tri. Dropping in class and stretching out to a route, his dirt route numbers fit with this group. He should be up close to the lead in a race without much early pace as well.
#5 Jack Luvs Nova (6/1) – He’s working well off the layoff and putting the blinkers back on today. His efforts at Churchill this fall give him every chance in here.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 News Flash (10/1) – Dropping in class 1st off the claim for a better barn, he’s working well and has an early pace edge over this field. He should be able to clear the field early and will be very dangerous at a big number.
*Double Barreled Buckshot #5 Kadri (10/1) – He showed talent in early in his career and ran better than it looks last time with a slow break and a wide trip. 2nd off the layoff today he looks like he’s sitting on a top effort.
#7 One for Richie (15/1) – He trounced weaker last time and will be stepping up in class today. His last race was by far the fastest last race in the field and anything near this morning line would be a must whack.
