October 2018 - Page 3 of 3 - The Conductor's Scroll

Killing Keeneland: Wednesday’s Keys to the Late Pick 5

on October 10, 2018April 24, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

View of the Keeneland paddock area with spectators observing horses and handlers in a grassy setting.

Not a good day at Parx yesterday, but none of you played anyway. The Conductor is taking the train back to Kentucky today to find more 23-1 winners at Keeneland. We need a big day to turn this week around. The Conductor will be swinging for the fences, Keeneland, you protect your neck.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 50000

#11 Floss Dancer (6/1) – In this wide open maiden claimer, the Conductor will lean on this filly drawn to the outside. Her dam has produced 4 winners from 8 starters and trainer Albert Stall Jr. is hitting at a preposterous 38% clip with a +$1.47 ROI debuting maiden claimers. She’s working well and all signs point to her running a big one.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 69000n1x

#3 Lenamarie (5/1) – This $335k filly broke her maiden impressively at Keeneland last fall and has only raced once since. She’s been working consistently well entering today and the Conductor isn’t concerned about the layoff with these connections. Drawn well to the inside, she should get a ground saving trip and the Conductor thinks she has the most upside in this field.

Race 6: 6½ Furlongs. OC 100000n2x

#12 Smart Remark (8/1) – Up close to a hot pace at turf last start, this gelding ran better than it looks on paper. He should improve in his second start off a layoff and switching back to dirt, his preferred surface. He’s run his two best career races in his two starts on the Keeneland dirt and drawn well to the Conductor is salivating to bet him at 8/1

Race #7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F. G2 JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes

Where else can you get a Grade 2 on a Tuesday? The Conductor loves this place so much.

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Pekhet (8/1) – She finished in front of the likely favorite in here #12 Fierce Scarlett in her debut then broke her maiden in her next start at this distance. She has a better post than the outside favorites and should be able to dictate her own trip sitting just off the leave. In a race where many haven’t proven they can go two turns, 8/1 is stealing.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. Clm 20000n2L

*Never a Doubt Mortgage Lock of the Day #2 House of Commons (7/2) – The Conductor is going for a new house again today and he will single this gelding in all of his wagers. He’s taking a major class drop today and made the lead last time out against much better. He has 2 figures above par for this level in his young career and his early pace figs tower over this field. Its not a question of whether he wins, the question is by how many.

Pounding Philly: Tuesdays Plays at Parx

on October 9, 2018April 24, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Horses and jockeys at the starting gate during a race at Parx Racing.

This is where we separate the men for the boys, the contenders from pretenders, the conductors from the passengers. Anyone can play the major circuits on weekends with their fancy outfits and stakes races. Only the true grinders show up at the OTB on a Tuesday for Parx. Where the ponies run, the train will follow, Let’s Ride.

Late Pick 4 and Double

Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs. Clm 7500n4L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Southerncommission (10/1) – If they give the Conductor 10/1 on this gelding he won’t have enough space on the train for all his loot. Pressing a hot pace and running a solid 3^rd against tougher last time, the Conductor sees him as the most likely winner. Speed and the rail have been beneficial at Parx in sprint races this meet, and the favorites have big question marks in here.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F. MC 40000

*Never a Doubt Jet Ski Lock of the Day #6 Agent Ninetynine (4/1) – Top connections and her dam wins at 33% with 1^st time starters. The Conductor loves her work pattern and can see her running off the screen.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Alw 46000n1x

#3 Share the Ride (6/1) – He has the most impressive race in this field two starts back running them off their feet to break his maiden. Last start at this level, he ran a so-so 2^nd, losing to a next out winner. He’s working like a rocket and trainer Alan Goldberg has a +$0.15 ROI with horses 45-90 days away. He has the most upside in this field and 6/1 is juicy.

Race 8: 1 Mile. OC 25000n2x

#8 Quality Asset (8/1) – There is a ton of speed in this race and the Conductor will key on a closer who should get a perfect trip. A winner of two in a row by open lengths, this gelding loves Parx and will be revving up while the others are tiring.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 10000

#5 Deep Canyon (6/1) – This might be the worst field the Conductor has seen all year on paper. That doesn’t mean he won’t find some value. Well bet in his last start at Penn National he bobbled at the break and lost all chance. He debuted in Southern California, is working well and has solid connections. He is the only one here with positives.

Collapsing The Trachea: Columbus Day Plays at Santa Anita Park

on October 8, 2018April 24, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Illustration of Christopher Columbus holding a sword with a ship and crew in the background.

Nothing like quality racing on a Monday. The Conductor sees plenty of opportunities on the late card at Santa Anita for some prices.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.SurferGrlL 110k

*Never a Doubt Fillet Dinner Lock of the Day #2 Lady Prancealot (7/2) – This filly’s first start in America was very solid, closing from way back for a good 2nd into a slow pace. With some American experience under her belt and a more favorable setup, the Conductor sees her hitting the wire in front.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. MC 20000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Optimum (6/1) – He took money in his debut and ran evenly, finishing 4^th in a 9-horse field. That race has produced next out winners and the Conductor thinks the favorites in this field are very vulnerable. This gelding should step forward in his second start and has major upside.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.Alw 50000s

#1 Tiz Toffee (6/5) – The Conductor hates favorites and the rail in sprint races, but she looks like a standout in here. She’s run multiple races at Santa Anita that would smash this field. The he Conductor can’t find any reason she won’t run her best today.

*Bonus Gullet Slit #4Gypsy Blue (8/1) – After a very solid debut win two starts back, she had a trip from hell last start. She had no chance after steadying early. Now she’s been working like a rocket and the Conductor can see her running a big one.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) ZumaBeachL100k

#1 Rijeka (4/1) – This colt was well bet and pressed a hot pace vs similar in his last start. His debut in America two starts back was very good. In that race he sat farther back and won with a good late kick. Switching to rider Franco Geovanni, the Conductor will bet Rijeka will get a more favorable trip today.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 40000n1x

#9 Major Cabbie (6/1) – He was miles back in her first start off the layoff last time at Santa Anita and closed from the clouds to finished 3^rd. The Conductor expects him to sit closer to the pace today. Now that he’s more fit, he should take a big step forward in his 2nd start off a long layoff. Mike Smith stays in the irons as well, which is a very positive sign.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 40000

#3 Sensible Thoughts (2/1) – With the best form on dirt and only one try on turf, she is diffidently the most likely winner. The jockey upgrade to Prat makes her even more likely.

*Bonus Gullet Slit #4 Weather Market (12/1) – In this weak field, this is a nice price the Conductor can see winning. She’s run well on turf against much better Maiden Special Weights and trainer Michael Pender is 17% with a +$1.52 RO! 1^st off the claim this year. If you throw out her last dirt start she looks as formidable as any in here.

Sunday’s Turf Plays at Keeneland and Belmont Park

on October 7, 2018April 18, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

A lineup of thoroughbred racehorses at the starting gate at Keeneland, featuring jockeys in colorful silks ready for the race.

High quality racing at Keeneland and Belmont Park again today, so the Conductor will run it back. He likes a lot of mid-priced horses on the turf and if we can string a few together we’ll have our bookmakers sucking their thumb tonight. Let’s Ride.

Keeneland Late Pick 5

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) IndinSmmrB200K

#2 Strike Silver (4/1) – His last speed figure on dirt is the highest in this bunch and his breeding suggests the grass will be no problem. He’s posting bullet works and looks like he’s sitting on a big one.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.Mdn 67k

In Charge Annie (6/1) – Heavily bet in her debut, she pressed a hot pace hung wide and still ran 3^rd. Her early pace figs were above par and speed was very advantageous on the Keeneland dirt yesterday. The Conductor can taste 6/1 on his toungue.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Bourbon-G3

#10 Current (6/1) – Very professional in his last start, this colt had some trouble and still won with ease. He’s bred to be good one and he should appreciate the added distance.

#13 Mick’s Star (10/1) – Two blowout victories in his first two starts, he’ll try the turf and route for the first time. He’s bred for these conditions and Tom Amoss doesn’t bring horses who aren’t ready to win to Keeneland.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Spinster-G1

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Champagne Problems (8/1) – This filly is steadily improving and just missed by a nose to the likely 2^nd choice #11 Blue Prize in her last start. The Conductor was very impressed by both their efforts and there is no reason for such a disparity in odds. Champagne problems has every chance to win this race and the price is right.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 71000n2x

*Never a Doubt Car Payment Lock of the Day #3 Excellent Sunset (5/2) – Pressing a hot face and still kicking home strong to win easy, this lightly raced filly has shown versatility and talent in her young career. She’s flat out better than this group.

Belmont Grade 1 Double:

Race 7: F. G1 Frizette Stakes

*Never a Doubt Mortgage lock of the Day #6 Covfefe (8/5) – You don’t see blowout winners like her debut at Churchill Downs too often. She’s working well leading into today and the Conductor thinks she’s a full blow freak. She’ll win by 10.

Race 8: 1 1/4 Mile. (Inner Turf) F. G1 Flower Bowl Stakes

#1 Onthemoonagain (9/2) – The “other Chad” runner in this field hasn’t gotten a fair shot in her first two starts in America. She’s been trying to close into dismally slow paces and hasn’t had a chance. Her form in France makes her the class of this field and with a fair trip she’ll have a major shot.

Saturday’s Graded Stakes Plays at Keeneland and Belmont Park

on October 6, 2018April 18, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

A thrilling start of the Belmont Stakes horse race with multiple jockeys and horses at the starting gate.

The Conductor had to lick his wounds after a poor performance Thursday, but he’s been in the pony lab capping all day and night for this monster Saturday card. Graded stakes action all day across this great country and the Conductor has more than a few prices up his sleeve. Ponies with college football on a beautiful fall Saturday and the Conductor will pay our rent? Who has it better than us? Nobody. Let’s Ride.

Keeneland Pick 5:

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Woodford S.

#4 Extravagant Kid (5/1) – He pressed an scorching pace at Saratoga last start and sill held on for victory. He’s primed to run his best in the third start off the layoff and even a repeat effort will give him every chance.

#8 Undrafted (10/1) – This Ol’ boy will be closing from the clouds. His last effort was solid, closing into a slow pace, and he’ll have much more pace to run at today. He loves the Keeneland turf and the Conductor will bet his presence will be known.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F. G2 Thoroughbred Club of America S.

#9 Chalon (4/1) – Her last start was very enticing as she sat just off a hot pace and scampered away in hand. Her early/turn pace figs are the best of the bunch and she draws well to the outside. 4/1 makes the Contuctor tingle with excitement.

*Bonus Gullet Slit #1 Rich Mommy (20/1) – This filly is an improving 4-year-old and has been making her living as a deep closer at Gulftream Park. Her running style will be much more favorable in Kentucky and the Conductor thinks she has a major chance to not only hit the board, but win if there is a hot pace in front of her.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F. G1 First Lady S.

*Never a Doubt Car Payment Lock of the Day #4 Crown Walk (4/1) – She’s been facing much tougher turf horses across the pond and the Conductor doesn’t really like any of these American runners. She gets Lasix for the first time and Mike Smith comes to ride, which is a sign she’s more than live. New Car time.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity

#5 Dream Maker (5/1) – He was extremely green in the G1 Hopeful last time and had no idea what he was doing. His debut win two back was ultra-impressive, and her breeding suggests she’ll like the added distance. The clockers are raving about how he’s working leading up to today.

#14 Standard Deviation (10/1) – Heavily bet in is debut at Saratoga, this colt rated well and passed horses. He will appreciate the added distance and Chad will have him poised to run a big one.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 Shadwell Turf Mile

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Synchrony (8/1) – The Conductor loves his last two efforts at Monmouth showing a thunderous kick even with moderate paces to run at. He’s a grade 2 winner, in career form and this should be his best distance. Keeneland better wear a neck brace in this race.

*Bonus Gullet Slit #1 Next Shares (15/1) – A monster bomb the Conductor like to hit the board, he came from the clouds in his last start against the slowest of paces. He’s Grade 1 Stakes placed and this race looks to have a lot of pace on paper. If the race falls apart like the Conductor envisions, he’ll be right there in the end.

Belmont Park Pick 4:

Race #7: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) Belmont Turf Sprint 150K

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Gidu (8/1) – Pressing the star Promisses Fullfilled on the dirt last time out in a Grade 1 Stakes, this colt has real speed and ability. He gets back to his preferred surface today, he’s won sprinting at Belmont before, and draws a nice outside post. If the Conductor gets anywhere over 4/1 it’ll be his favorite bet of the day.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Beldame Stakes

*Never a Doubt Mortgage Lock of the Day #6 Wow Cat (5/2) – This Chilean star was no match for the Elate and Able Tasman duel at Saratoga last time, but there is nobody even close to that quality in this field. She’ll romp by 5.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) G2 Hill Prince Stakes

March to the Arch (4/1) – Closing from far back into a tepid pace last time, this gelding finished just as strong as the will be favorite #3 Raging Bull. With a cleaner trip, he’ll have every chance to turn the tables and will be a better price.

Race 10: 1 Mile. G1 Champagne S.

#4 Complexity (5/2) – Breaking slow from the rail in his debut, this colt’s victory was extremely impressive. The word on the street is he’s working like a monster and will be tough to beat.

*Bonus Gullet Slit: #6 Listing (15/1) – He was very professional in his debut showing he can rate and pass horses. While almost all others in this field haven’t done. The Conductor loves the California dirt shippers and trainer Ben Cecil is great stretching horses out to a route the first time. He’s hitting at a 20% clip with a +1.95 ROI this year.

Thursday’s Throat Shots at Santa Anita

on October 4, 2018April 24, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

No time for the Conductor to rest on his laurels, he took the train cross country to take on Santa Anita today. Let’s see if California can put up a better fight against the Conductor than Florida did. More likely another track gets its Adams Apple busted, let’s ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 20000

#6 Believe Indeed (5/1) – She gets back to the turf today and the Ragin Cajun back in the saddle. She’s a proven turf winner and the classiest of this bunch. If she goes off at 5/1 the other mouth breathing cappers just aren’t paying attention.

Race 2: 1 Mile. Mdn 50k

#1 Pitino (5/2) – This 950k purchase will appreciate the added distance. This colt has been a little ouchy but has more talent in her left hoof than the rest of this field combined. He’ll win for fun.

Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 50k

#3 Mucho Unusual (6/5) – The Conductor hates chalk, but he’ll take a free square when he has to. Prat on the best horse is usually free money at Santa Anita.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 12500n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Complete Discreet (20/1) – Speed and fate on a tiring track last time out at Los Al, this filly is on the improve and has a number that is competitive against this bunch. There are some questionable class droppers in here, so the Conductor will take a shot.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 30000

#8 Divine Dharma (4/1) – Moved into John Sadler’s barn after hopping at the start in her debut in a stakes race at Emerald Downs. She’s been working well, and Tyler Baze hops aboard, which is a positive sign.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 62500n2x

*Stone Cold Lock of the Day #6 Ike Walker (5/2) – He’s a hard knocker, proven winner and drops out of a stakes race at Santa Anita where he pressed a hot pace. Facing inferior today he draws well to the outside and the Conductor feels comfortable putting his life in his hands.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 50000s

#5 Worthy Turk (7/2) – The jockey/trainer combo of Figueroa/Miller are read hot and they have the best horse. This lightly raced gelding is improving with every start and has the strongest finish in this field.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. MC 20000

#6 Thefourfortyfourth (5/1) – Cutting back in distance, dropping in class and a bullet work entering today, there is a lot to like with this gelding. The Conductor is salivating at 5/1.

*Bonus Gullet Slit #1 Smokin B (12/1) – Well bet in his debut at Santa Anita, he attended a quick pace 4wide, then faded down the stretch. He drops in class today and Baze stays aboard, which is a good sign. The Conductor can smell a big race from him.

Gulfstream Park West: Key Horses for Wednesday, October 3

on October 3, 2018April 24, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Gulfstream Park at Hallandale, Florida, featuring palm trees and vibrant flowers leading to the race course entrance.

The Conductor slaughtered Gulfstream last Thursday, so he’s going back to the well mid-week. He’ll have the videos for the lock of the day and gullet shot up from now on. The train will be running nonstop through Keeneland, Santa Anita and the Breeders Cup. What a time to be alive, Let’s Ride

Gulfstream Park West Race 1: 1 Mile. Clm 6250n3L

#7 King Mauro (5/2) – The Conductor would love this gelding to be the 2^nd choice, he looks like a cinch in here. He’s never dropped this low in class and is the only horse that has any semblance of early speed besides the #6. King Mauro’s got the best speed figs and will be able to dictate his own trip, easy start to the day.

Gulfstream Park West Race 2: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 16000b

#6 Wanda Girl (9/2) – She swung wide and made up 4 lengths down the stretch for a good 3^rd at this level last time out. She should step forward in her 2^nd start off the layoff. She’s beaten much better competition last year.

*Bonus Gullet Slit #2 Quickluckycoco (15/1) – Throw out this filly’s last start on the off track, her win on the grass going this distance two back gives her a shot in here. The turf may be what this filly has wanted all along. She can run in the trifecta at a big number.

Gulfstream Park West Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 10000n2L

Stone Cold Never a Doubt Lock of the Day #5 Touchet (2/1) – She’s an improving filly and she’ll get the lead all to her lonesome. Dropping in class, the Conductor will not allow her to lose.

Race 4: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.MC 35000

#5 Trixie’s Time (10/1) – The Conductor thought she showed some promise in her debut, facing trouble early and finishing with a strong kick. The Conductor expects her to take a massive step forward with experience. There aren’t any world beaters in this field.

Race 5: 6½ Furlongs. F.Clm 6250n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Miss Surprise (10/1) – She was bumped at the start in her last race and then chased a hot pace. She’s run two solid efforts in her last two and she should run her best in her 3^rd start off the layoff. The rest of this field is coming out of slow paced races and she has a figure above par for this level. The poor trainer stats should keep her price high.

Gulfstream Park West Race 6: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 8000n2L

#6 Copper Vessel (5/1) – She closed into a slow pace last time and is dropping in class again. She’s run multiple races in her career that would beat this sorry bunch. She should get early pace to run at today.

Gulfstream Park West Race 7: 1 Mile. OC 16000n1x

#2 Belle Tapisserie (4/1) – This colt hasn’t routed yet, so that’s the concern. However, her sprint figs stand miles above this field. She’s been off since March but has three solid works entering today. The Conductor will bet on talent.

Gulfstream Park West Race 8: 7½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.MC 10000

#1 Journey East (15-1) – This filly has been dismal in her first two starts, but she drops in class and tries turf for the first time. She took money in her debut and the Conductor has that feeling in his right knee that there is ability here yet to be shown. Trainer Chad Stewart has been hitting with prices off of long layoffs this year.