Month: May 2019

The Conductor’s Preakness Preview

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A racehorse with a jockey in yellow silks competing in a horse racing event.

The Conductor can feel the excitement brewing in his plumbs. Black-Eyed Susan Day tomorrow then the big Saturday in Baltimore and the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown. With the top finishers in the Derby not running, it makes for a very intriguing race and the Conductor sees prices in his crystal ball.  With speed horses drawn to the inside and outside, this pace is going to heat up. The Conductor will try to put himself in a similar situation as Derby day. Survive until the big race and try to get alive to all of King Midas’s silver. This is our time! Our Preakness! Let’s Ride. PS Buy a shirt.

Race 13: 1 3/16 Mile. G1 Preakness Stakes

#1 War of Will (4/1) – The horse most effected by the Derby chaos, he looked loaded before getting tangled with Maximum Security on the far turn.  He has a major chance, but will have to send from the rail, put away the frontrunners, hold off the closers and will be overly bet.  The Conductor will not use him on top.

*#2 Bourbon War (12/1) – No chance we get 12/1, but he’s one of the horses the Conductor really likes.  He had no shot in the Florida Derby closing into a slow pace and that race has come back very live. Code of Honor’s 2nd in the Derby gives the Conductor more confidence.

preakness

#3 Warrior’s Charge (12/1) – He’s run solid figures in his last two blowout wins, but he’s been alone on the lead setting slow paces. This colt has never seen the pace and competition he will on Saturday. The Conductor won’t use him.

#4 Improbable (5/2) – This is a favorite the Conductor will love to bet against. He had favorable trip in the Derby and came up empty. He’ll likely run 2nd or 3rd, but the Conductor won’t allow him to win.

*#5 Owendale (10/1) – The Conductor must use him after his last performance at Keeneland.  He made a jaw dropping move on the far turn and engulfed the field on a speed favoring track.  Classic swoop and pounce move the Conductor loves so much.

preakness

#6 Market King (30/1) – Get him out of here.

*#7 Alwaysmining (8/1)

– This gelding is no joke. He’s been throttling his competition at Laurel Park and will get the acid test Saturday, but the Conductor thinks he’s a monster.  He’s a must use on top.

preakness

#8 Signalman (30/1) – He ran well in the Bluegrass, but the Conductor sees him as a notch below the Contenders. He doesn’t hate him underneath for 3rd or 4th though.

#9 Bodexpress (20/1) – He clearly doesn’t like the slop, so ignore his Derby effort.  He can sit behind the fronrunners and get a great trip.  The Conductor will use him in 2nd and 3rd.

#10 Everfast (50/1) – Ignore him.

#11 Laughing Fox (20/1) – The Conductor can see him closing for 3rd or 4th, but nothing more.  He narrowly beat much weaker with a good setup last start.

#12 Anothertwistafate (6/1) – He’ll show speed out of the gate and contribute to the hot pace.  He ran solid in the Lexington Stakes last start, but Owendale ran him down even though he had a more favorable trip. 3rd at best.

*#13 Win Win Win (15/1) – The Conductor’s great white buffalo. He had no chance after the start of the Derby to no fault of his own.  The Conductor’s eyes lit up when it was announced he was running back in the Preakness.  He should get a perfect setup Saturday and we’ll get to see what he is made of. Redemption will be served in the Preakness Tall, Neat and Strong, just the way the Conductor likes it. Win Contenders:

preakness

Win Contenders: #2 Bourbon War (12/1), #5 Owendale (10/1), #7 Always Mining (8/1), #13 Win Win Win (15/1)

Top Pick:

#13 Win Win Win (15/1)

Wind Pipe Whack Wednesday at Louisiana Downs

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Exterior view of Harrah's Casino entrance with illuminated signage and flags at night.

The Conductor has no idea why the Preakness draw is not until 5:00pm today when Friday’s card was available Monday.  That doesn’t make any sense, just like most things in horse racing.  Whatever, I guess his Preakness day preview will have to wait until tomorrow. Until then, we might as well pick up a few bucks on our way to Baltimore. It is wind pipe whack Wednesday at Louisiana Downs after all, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1m70yds. Clm 5000b

#3 Dry Wood Creek (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he’ll get a good trip up close to the front in a race with absolutely no pace.

Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 5000b

*Never a Doubt Humpday Lock #1A Angel d’Oro (6/5) – She looks to be a step above this group.

Louisiana downs

Race 3: 1m70yds. Clm 5000n2L

#3 Vivinsky (10/1) – He showed ability in his debut, maybe he’ll find new life running for a new barn.  This field is very weak, so he doesn’t have to wake up much to be a factor.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 7500b

 #6 Hawks Peak (3/1) – He’ll go right to the front and shouldn’t get much pressure. Gate to wire Louisiana Downs style.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. S.F.Clm 5000n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day Weavemeawinr (12/1) – She’s been facing tougher and is trending in the right direction.

Louisiana downs

Race 6: 5 Furlongs. F.S.Clm 5000n2L

#1 Lil Kylie (5/2) – She’s taking a significant class drop and has good early speed.

Race 7: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.MC 12500

#9 Quisty Busty (8/1) – He has a chance to improve trying the lawn and stretching out for the first time. He’s bred to be better than these colts.

Black-Eyed Susan Stakes Day Late Pick 5 Preview

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Jockey riding Stopchargingmaria during a horse race, wearing orange and blue silks, with a blurred background of spectators.

Props to Pimlico on putting together a great Friday card. Full 14 race plays will be up Friday, but the Conductor will preview the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes Day pick 5, which will get most of his attention. A big Friday means we can go for the jugular on Saturday and we know how much the Conductor like to kill. Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F. Skipat Stakes 100k

 #3 Chalon (6/5) – Nothing like starting the pick 5 with a stone cold single.  We’ll find out if we’re alive or dead right from the jump. She looks like a clear stand out.

black-eyed susan stakes

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. F. G3 Adena Springs Miss Preakness Stakes

#2 Covfefe (7/2) – She’s the lone A for the Conductor and he’ll heavily press her. 2 of her 3 career races blow this field away.

#1 Iva (15/1), #6 Never Enough Time (6/1), #7 Miss Imperial (8/1), #10 By Bye Jay (12/1), #11 Fighting Mad (4/1), and #12 Midnight Fantasy (12/1) will be used as backups.

#12 Midnight Fantasy (12/1) – She’s undefeated sprinting and is the price the Conductor will key in the trifecta.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F. Hilltop Stakes 100k

#2 Nova Sol (7/2), #5 Dogtag (9/2) – Chad Brown wins every turf race.

#12 Orra Moor (10/1) – If there is somebody that can beat Chad, it’s Todd.  This girl has run quality races on the dirt vs tough competition, if her form can translate to the turf she’ll be dangerous.

Race 10: 1 ¼ Mile. G3 Pimlico Special Stakes

This is going to be a spread race for the Conductor, this field is wide open and almost everyone has a chance.

#7 Just Whistle (20/1) – This is the Conductor’s favorite bomb in here and the one he’ll be keying in the exacta and trifecta. The distance will be no problem with his strong late pace figures and his last race was better than it looks, trying to close into a tepid pace on a speed favoring track. He can make the Conductor’s day.

black-eyed susan stakes

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes

#7 Brill (5/1) – Making her 3rd start off the layoff, she looks to get a perfect trip sitting just behind the leaders.  She has loads of talent and her last race in the Fantasy stakes has come back live.

#8 Point of Honor (5/2) – Her late pace figures are thunderous.  If she gets any pace to run at she’ll be tough to beat.

#2 Off Topic (8/1) – She’s the price the Conductor likes most.  She’s a closer who caught a slow pace last start.  She won’t surprise the Conductor.

Moon Shot Monday: The Conductor’s Plays at Louisiana Downs

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Exterior view of Harrah's Casino entrance with illuminated signage and flags at night.

Rain took the races off the dirt yesterday at Belmont, but a nice 9/1 winner in Race 2 made it a good Sunday. Its officially Preakness week and the Conductor’s head is spinning.  He’ll give us some winners at Louisiana Downs today, then his focus will turn to the upcoming feature races at Pimlico.  We let the Derby slip through our fingers in the slop, we can’t let it happen again.  Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs. Mdn 18k

#5 Track Binder (5/1) – His low % jockey/trainer combo have lit up the tote board recently and this boy’s sire wins at a 20% clip with 1st time starters.

Race 2: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 25000n1x

#6 Zarelda (4/1) – She’s been facing much tougher and has run quality races on the dirt in her young career.  She’s bred to be even better on the lawn.

Race 3: 1m70yds. S.Clm 7500n2x

#5 Crooked as Can Be (9/5) – He bounced back nicely last race and has strong back class.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 12500

#10 Betty’s Joy’s Star (5/2) – Shipping in from the Fair Grounds, she must beat this weak Louisiana Downs field.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. S.MC 12500

#6 Shot On Windy Hill (6/1) – He’s shown good early speed and gets a major trainer upgrade to Beverly Burress, who has a +$2.04 ROI running horses for the 1st time this year.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 19000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Thegreyspider (6/1) – The drop in class helped him last time. He consistently runs the highest figures in the field.

louisiana downs

Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 5000

*Never a Doubt Week Starter #6 Cool Sis (1/1) – She can’t lose.

louisiana downs

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Belmont Park

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A chestnut racehorse with a jockey in white attire racing ahead during a horse race.

We finally found a few winners yesterday at Belmont. Heading into Preakness week, we need more than a few. The Conductor’s mother hopes he gets hot soon or he’s going to move back into her basement. Happy Mother’s Day from Belmont Park! Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 7 Furlongs. Clm 10000

#1 Zap Zap Zap (12/1) – He always runs well at Belmont and this race is wide open.  The Conductor will key him in the exacta.

Race 2: 6½ Furlongs. S.MC 25000

#1 Bustin Shout (12/1) – He was eased in his debut but was well bet at the windows and has been gelded since.  He can surprise the bettors who don’t follow the Conductor.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.Clm 40000n2L

#4 Roses From Ben (8/1) – She’s 1/1 on the lawn and will be a big price.  Most of these runners haven’t proven anything on the grass.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 80k

#6 Sneakiness (9/2) – Drawn well to the outside, he showed ability in his debut last fall and is working like a monster entering today.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. S.Clm 40000

#4 Stink Man (4/1) – The Conductor has no idea what happened last start, but he showed real talent in hist 1st career start.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 30000n2L

*Never a Doubt Pay For Moms Brunch Lock of the Day #3 Hope Again (3/1) – These Tampa shippers continue to run very well.

Belmont Park

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 62500n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Saguaro Row (4/1) – She’s going to get a perfect trip, sitting behind a hot pace.  She’s steadily progressing and has run against some classy fillies.

Belmont Park

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. 100K Gold Fever Stakes

#3 Sombeyay (9/2) – This is a loaded non-graded stakes.  The Conductor would love him to be the third betting choice.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 62k

#9 Quiet Out East (4/1) – The Conductor doesn’t have a clue in here.

Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

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A man in racing attire seated on a shiny black horse, both posed for a photograph.

Belmont has completely baffled the Conductor the last two days. Hell of a card today, it would be a great time for the Conductor to get hot. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6½ Furlongs. F.G3 Vagrancy H.

#4 Separationofpowers (7/5) – This filly looks like a cinch to start the card.

Race 2: 1 Mile. Mdn 80k

#6 Principled (5/2) – Heavily bet at Saratoga last summer and drawn well to the outside, this colt has talent.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 82000n1x

#2 Miss Mystique (6/1) – They layoff and low % trainer should keep her price high, she’s run well of breaks before and hast the best turf figures in the field.

Race 4: 1 1/8 Mile. G3 Peter Pan Stakes

*Never a Doubt Saturday Lock of the Day #3 Global Campaign (8/5) – The Florida Derby has come back very live and he moved into the teeth of the hot pace in there. He’s going to win for fun today.

Belmont

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) MC 40000

#2 Whiskey Is My Wine (8/1) – Whiskey is the Conductor’s water.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. Clm 50000

#4 Felix in Fabula (7/5) – He looks extremely tough to beat at Belmont on the cutback.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F. G3 Beaugay Stakes

#1 Chipolata (4/1) – She ran well to close into a slow pace and get the job done last start. She has back class and looks poised to run her best 2nd off the layoff.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 80k

#4 Structural Deficit (5/1) – A well-bred Chad Brown filly is going to be 2nd choice? The Conductor will take her.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. 150K Runhappy Stakes

#3 Firenze Fire (7/2) – 2nd off the layoff, he looks to get a perfect stalking trip, tracking a fast pace.

Race 10: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) G1 Man O’ War Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Hunting Horn (10/1) – He’s caught a yielding course and has legitimate excuses in most of his North American races.  He fits with this group and the Conductor will key him in the trifecta at a nice number.

Belmont

Race 11: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 62k

#4 Electronic (3/1) – She acted up at the gate and still ran a good 4th, closing into a slow pace in her debut. She’ll take a step forward today.

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

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Dynamic horse race featuring multiple jockeys in colorful attire competing on a dirt track, showcasing speed and excitement.

https://www.instagram.com/ponyconductor/p/BxSCDF8FDiO/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=wiwdm7pr6wfx

New day at Belmont Park, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 1⁄2 Furlongs. F.Clm 14000n3L

*Never a Doubt Friday Night Bottle Service Lock of the Day #1 Reata’s Reward (3/1) – She has a huge early pace edge over this group.

Belmont Park

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.MC 40000

#9 Tabor Fleet (15/1) – The Conductor doesn’t like any of the runners with experience in here. Contessa never wins with 1st time starters, so why is Rosario taking the mount? Hmmm…smells like a bomb.

Race 3: 7 Furlongs. Clm 20000

#2 Indian Guide (7/2) – He closed into a slow pace for a good 2nd last start. He’ll get a better setup today.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 30000n2L

#2 All Clear (6/1) – His best races have come on the turf, where he finally gets back to today. He’ll go off higher than 60/1.

Race 5: 5 Furlongs. S.Mdn 62k

#6 Uncle George (7/2) – This 310k colt’s sire wins at 16% with 1st time starters. Castellano is red hot to start the meet.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.S.MC 40000

#8 Slamin Sammy Brown (8/1) – She’s bred to for the lawn and we get top connections in a wide open race.

Race 7: Furlongs. Alw 82000n1x

#5 American Power (5/1) – This colt will love the cutback to a sprint.

Race 8: 1 Mile. OC 80000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Direct Order (6/1) – He’s going to get a perfect stalking trip, the Conductor loves him.

Belmont Park

 

Race 9: 6 1⁄2 Furlongs. MC 20000

#10 Mandatory Payout (9/2) – Cutting back to a sprint after pressing a hot pace at Belmont routing. Easy bet back.

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

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Exciting horse race start at Belmont Park with multiple jockeys and horses bursting from the starting gates.

A nice little twilight card with no rain today in New York. With the Preakness only 9 days away, we need to fill up the train at Belmont Park with funds fast. Let’s Ride!

Race 1: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

#5 Crimson Forest (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she’s been running competitive figures for this level on dirt and has only tried the turf once in her career.  She’s bred to handle the lawn just fine.

Race 2: 5 Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 62k

#3 American Song (5/2) – Trainer Jeremiah Englehart has a positive ROI this year with 1st time starters and this girl’s sire hits at 18% with debut runners.

Race 3: 1 ¼ Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 90k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Tiberius Mercurius (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this colt ran a strong 2nd last start, closing into a slow pace.  He also gets a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz.

Belmont Park

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 40000

#2 Thomond Park (6/1) – Just missing last time at Tampa, he’ll appreciate the shorter distance and the Conductor has seen a lot of Tampa shippers run very well lately.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. S.OC 40000n2x

#5 Real Dan (4/1) – 2/2 in his 1st two starts, he looks to get a perfect trip stalking a quick pace.

#7 Sicilia Mike (8/1) – He won’t win, but he’ll hit the board. The Conductor will key him underneath in the exacta and trifecta.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 12500

#6 Riot Worthy (9/2) – The Conductor will key her in the exacta because she loves to run 2nd. She looks to get a dream trip, closing into a hot pace.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 80k

#1/1A Entry (5/2) – The Conductor likes both runners, he hopes neither scratch and he can single here.

Race 8: 1 3/8 Mile. Flat Out Stakes 100k

*Never a Doubt Tell Your Boss Your Taking Friday Off and Have Yourself a Long Weekend Lock of the Day #5 Rocketry (9/5) – He had no chance last start at Gulfstream trying to close into a ridiculously slow pace. 2nd off the layoff, he’ll annihilate this Belmont field.

Belmont Park

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.S.Alw 66000n1x

#4 Love and Love (20/1) – The Conductor will take a shot in a wide-open race. She’s run well both sprinting and routing, which the Conductor like to see.

Wind Pipe Whack Wednesday at Louisiana Downs

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Dynamic horse race featuring multiple jockeys in colorful silks competing on a grassy track, showcasing the excitement of equestrian sports.

A couple of winners including the lock of the day yesterday for the Conductor. He’ll keep the train down in Louisiana for one more day before heading up to New York tomorrow. A little gumbo and a tall glass of stew on a Wednesday? The Conductor certainly will at Louisiana Downs. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1m70yds. MC 5000

#1 Bailey’s Power (5/2) – Exiting a race that has come back live and lightly raced, he’s the only runner you can possibly like in here.

Race 2: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 12500n2L

#3 Meditate (6/1) – The Conductor will find his Zen with this boy.

Race 3: 1m70yds. F.MC 5000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Catbalee (12/1) – Coming from facing tougher at the Far Grounds, she hasn’t shown much in her first two starts, but should be forwardly placed. She’s taken some money at the windows and changes barns.

Louisiana Downs

Race 4: 5 Furlongs. F.S.Clm 5000

 #2 Doc’s Rocket (9/2) – She has the strongest early pace figures and has been facing tougher lately.

Race 5: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 7500

#8 T’ Cadeau (5/1) – This gelding has been pressing hot paces vs tougher at the Fair Grounds. He gets a weaker group and a rider upgrade today.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. S.OC 12500n1x

#2 Saltee Shark (9/2) – The Conductor likes his steady progression and sees him getting a perfect trip sitting just behind the dueling speed horses, ready to pounce.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. S.Clm 50003n3L

*Never a Doubt Humpday Lock #6 Kool Yankee (9/2) – He showed promise as a young colt at Louisiana Downs and is in as good form.

Louisiana Downs

The Conductor’s Kentucky Derby Recap

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A group of horses and jockeys in colorful silks racing on a muddy track during a horse race.

Oh what could have been. The Conductor is still having nightmares about the end of a great Kentucky Derby Saturday. Now that he can see straight, he’s watched the tape a few times and has a few things to recap.

  1. The auxiliary gate is an absolute joke and #14 Win Win Win lost all chance after getting slammed at the start. He ran very well to split the field and the Conductor hopes he runs in the Preakness.

This has happened with the 14 and 15 posts most times the last few years. The two gates are angled towards each other. It’s preposterous that in the biggest race of the year you have an amateur hour gate. Build a 20-horse gate @Churchill Downs, you made enough money this weekend.

  1. It rains every 1st Saturday in May in Louisville and the Conductor is sick of it.

He doesn’t have a solution for this, but wants the pony gods to cut the shit.  The surface was great all day and then we got a deluge that completely changed how the track was playing right before the Derby.  On a day like Saturday with rain forecast for the late afternoon, you could move the post times up, or not have 1 ½ hours between the Old Forester and the Derby.  Once the downpour occurred, the Conductor could feel there was trouble brewing.

  1. The Disqualification of Maximum Security

Upon soberly watching the replays, the Conductor is ok with the disqualification if there was any consistency in horse racing.  Maximum Security does drift out on the turn multiple paths and that should not be allowed, but War of Will was already up his ass and the Conductor has seen much worse infractions not get penalized.  Thankfully no horses fell after clipping heals, which would of ended in catastrophe.  If you were alive to a huge score to Maximum Security, the Conductor feels sick for you and congrats to those loony bins who had Country House.  He’ll put it this way, if Baffert or Mott trained Maximum Security, he wouldn’t have gotten DQ’d and that’s a problem.

Kentucky Derby

Saturday took a lot out of the Conductor, but he will not lay down and quit.  The Preakness is only two weeks away and the Conductor will get back on the capping train tomorrow.  Lesser men like us would take a back seat after getting so close to a life changing Kentucky Derby score.  But that’s why we’re passengers and he is the one we chose to drive the train.  Beware Pimlico, you may think the Conductor will come coasting in nice and easy. Instead he’s blasting the train right through your gates full throttle.