Month: August 2019

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Saratoga

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A diverse crowd of people gathered at an outdoor event, leaning against a fence, showcasing excitement and anticipation.

We hit that first exacta nicely yesterday, then we faded down the stretch. We got lucky with the rain holding off and we have a similar scenario today with a weather guessing game. The Conductor capped for on the turf at Saratoga and if the later half gets taken off, then you passengers are on your own. Do something yourselves for once, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/8 Mile. F.Alw 14000s

#5 Colorincolonel (6/1) – Shipping in from Laurel, she ran a huge late pace figure in her last start, closing into a moderate pace. She’s trending in the right direction and the added distance won’t be a problem.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.S.Clm 25000

*Underneath Upper Cut of the Day #5 Moondance Joy (8/1) – With the favorites coming off layoffs in here, the Conductor will look to key this mare, who is in good form. She’s stepping up in class, but trainer Orlando Noda has been successful bumping horses up this year. She may not be good enough to win, but the Conductor sees her hitting the board.

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Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 50000n2L

#5 Sargeant Drive (3/1) – 1st off the claim for Mike Maker, this gelding switches back to turf where he has run well early in his career, and drops to the claiming ranks for the first time.

Race 4: 7 Furlongs. Clm 40000

#6 I’m an Ocala Dude (6/1) – He’s exiting a key race at Monmouth and the shippers from NJ have been running very well over the Saratoga dirt this meet.

Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs. S.Mdn 78k

#7 Dream Bigger (4/1) – This race is wide open, but the Conductor will lean towards Rudy Rod, who’s barn is heating up. He had a big day yesterday.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 90k

#2 Prosperity (6/1) – She didn’t have a fair chance closing into a slow pace in her debut, and still ran ok to only be beaten 3 lengths. She’ll get a better setup today and will take a step forward with experience.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. S.OC 40000n2x

#5 Ready to Escape (8/1) – He took a step forward last start and is working well leading into today. He showed major ability in his maiden breaker and still has potential to drastically improve.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. F.S. Saratoga Dew Stakes 100k

#2 Fetching (7/2) – This filly broke her maiden on the turf at Saratoga earlier in the meet. She’s bred to run just as well on the dirt and trainer Mark Casse is 17% this year with the turf to dirt move.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 92000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Belgrano (10/1) – He won nicely in his last race at Belmont and is steadily progressing. No chance he’ll be double digit odds, but the Conductor will still play him at half that price.

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Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Clm 40000

#6 Baffin Bay (9/2) – He’s in good form and hopefully the low % barn will keep his price from dropping. Castellano taking the mount means he’s live.

The Conductor’s Wednesday Preview at Saratoga

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Horses and jockeys at the starting gate during a race at Saratoga, showcasing the excitement of horse racing.

This is going to be our week at Saratoga. The Conductor can feel it in his bones……or maybe that’s just the stew rotting him out? Either way, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: Hurdle Race, pass

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. S.MC 25000

#8 Sobersick N Sorry (8/1) – He made a middle move after having trouble at the break in his debut. The Conductor sees him taking a big step forward with a race under his belt.

Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.Mdn 78k

#3 Lead Guitar (4/1) – She showed a strong late kick in his debut at Belmont and adds blinkers today, which should help her be closer early. Rider upgrade to Irad as well.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Clm 50000

#9 Positive Skew (6/1) – 1st off the claim for David Cannizzo, Chad dropped this filly to the claiming ranks last time to try and win the Saratoga meet title. She will be a better price today and has a good a chance as any.

Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.S. Mdn 78k

#7 Lady Kaza (5/2) – This filly is working very well by all counts for Chad.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Mahony Stakes 100k

#1 Uncle Benny (5/2) – He gets a tough post draw and is making his return from the Breeders Cup last year, but the Conductor would still love that price. He’s the most talented in the field and Servis will have him ready to run.

Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs. Clm 25000

#5 Brush Country (5/1) – He ran 2nd vs similar last time and is now 1st off the claim for trainer Thomas Morley. With beaten favorites this year, Morley is 28% with a +$1.74 ROI running back beaten favorites this year.

Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs. Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Pryor (12/1) – Making his 1st start of the year, this is trainer Ron Moquett’s first runner of the Saratoga meet. This gelding’s figures fit against this group and the Conductor can smell a big effort coming.

Saratoga

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. S.Evan Shipman Stakes

#1 Vincento (10/1) – Running back after a win at this distance over the Saratoga track, he had an easy trip last time but still ran a very strong late pace figure. He doesn’t need the lead and looks to get a good trip again here sitting just behind a hot pace.

Race 10: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.MC 40000

#1 Paradise Retained (5/1) – Dropping to the claiming ranks off a long layoff for Pletcher, her 2nd two starts back at Saratoga is the strongest effort this field has.

Whitney Stakes Day Plays at Saratoga

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Dynamic image of multiple racehorses competing on a dirt track, showcasing speed and athleticism in a thrilling horse race.

After a long day in all aspects of life, the Conductor had enough stew to kill an elephant last night. He can barely open his eyes this morning…..but that’s when he reads the form the best. Whitney Stakes Day, Let’s Ride.

 

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 90k

#1 Chimney Rock (8/1) – This colt ran well in his debut in a sprint rained off the turf. He is bred to be much better stretching out on the lawn like he is today.

Race 2: 1 1/8 Mile. Alw 92000n1x

#7 Uncle Sigh (6/1) – This old gelding is a warrior, exiting a troubled trip last time out he offers value today.

Race 3: 7 Furlongs. Mdn 90k

#2 Dubai Bobby (8/1) – The Conductor bet this boy in his debut and he ran a decent closing 3rd. He should appreciate the added furlong and trainer Jonathan Thomas is 29% with a +$0.19 ROI switching horses from turf to dirt this year.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 45000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Siding Spring (8/1) – Dropping in class and shipping in from Woodbine, he’s faced much tougher recently. Woodbine shippers have been running well on the lawn at toga.

whitney stakes

Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) G3 Troy Stakes

#1 World of Trouble (3/5) – He’s a monster.

Race 6: 6½ Furlongs. Mdn 90k

#4 Westport (12/1) – Previously trained by Baffert, he ran a dud in his debut but was well bet. Now in the Servis barn, the Conductor will bet he runs off the screen.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Lure Stakes 100K

#8 Ticonderoga (4/1) – Dropping out of G3 company, he ran a thunderous late pace figure closing into a slow pace last start. The Conductor has always liked his finish.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. F.G1 Test Stakes

#2 Bellafina (2/1) – The Conductor sees her as a cut above these fillies.

Race 9: 1 ¼ Mile. G1 Whitney Stakes

*Feature Double Barreled Favorite Beater #4 Thunder Snow (3/1) – The Conductor will use two horses in the feature to try and beat the favorite #6 Mckinzie (7/5). Mckinzie is ultra-talented, but he must prove to the Conductor he can win a race of this caliber going this far at a short price. Thunder Snow is tough as nails and one of the Conductor’s favorite horses in training.

#8 Preservationist (3/1) – Improving with every start and added distance, his win in the Grade 2 Suburban last time against a good horse in Catholic Boy gained the Conductor’s attention.

whitney stakes

***Thunder Snow Has Scratched, All Aboard #8 Preservationist

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.De La Rose Stakes 100K

#5 Rock My Love (9/2) – Dropping out of Grade 2 stakes company where she ran well, the Conductor sees her taking a big step forward in her 2nd start off a long layoff.

Race 11: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.Alw 80000n1x

#6 Brockmoninoff (8/1) – Coming in off a long layoff, he broke his maiden impressively at Saratoga last year at this distance. George Weaver will break through at the Spa soon.

Force Feed Friday: Saratoga Oaks Day Plays

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A thoroughbred horse named Concrete Rose racing with a jockey in purple and white silks.

Decent day yesterday for the Conductor, better early in the card than late. A few short-priced winners and a few big prices hitting the board. His best opinion was #12 Avocado Toast running 2nd at 14/1 in race 5. Damn millennials. The Conductor’s car just got towed right in front of his face this morning, so he is an angry capper. Somebody will pay for this, and its going to be the track. Saratoga Oaks Day, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. MC 20000

#6 Go Get That (6/1) – Switching back to the dirt and dropping in class, he showed good early speed vs tougher two back. Another Churchill shipper.

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. F.Clm 14000n3L

#3 Cool as You Like (9/5) – 1st off the claim for Linda Rice, she won handily last year at Saratoga. She looks well spotted for a win today.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 78k

#3 Light The Sky (3/1) – She took money in her debut at Saratoga and had a rough trip in a race taken off the turf. She’ll take a big step forward with experience and switching to the surface she’s bred for.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) S.OC 40000n2x

#1 Macagone (5/2) – He has an early pace edge against this group and Servis doesn’t seem to lose.

Race 5: 1 1/8 Mile. Clm 12500

#1 Tactical Pursuit (6/1) – Dropping back to a class level that suits him, he has every chance.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Clm 35000n3L

#5 Bemma’s Boy (6/1) – He closed well into a slow pace forward and looks to get a more favorable setup today.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) G2 National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes

*Double Barreled Shotgun Gullet Shots #1 Sombeyay (15/1) – This is a very weak G2 field and the Conductor thinks its primed for an upset. This colt ran well on the derby trail last year and will now try routing on turf for the 1st time. He’s also been working well on the lawn for Pletcher.

#6 Limonite (8/1) – Additionally, he’s the other colt the Conductor likes at a price. He’s shown ability on the dirt and has also run against strong competition lately.  He’s bred to take a major step forward on the lawn.

saratoga oaks

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. Alydar Stakes 100K

*Never a Doubt Pay For The Conductor’s Car Getting Yanked This Morning Lock of the Day #2 Tom’s d’Etat (7/5) – His class absolutely lays over the field.

saratoga oaks

Race 9: 1 3/16 Mile. (Turf) G2 Saratoga Oaks

#5 Concrete Rose (2/5) – She’s certainly turned into a very classy filly and BBN Racing has had the Conductor’s back from day 1. The Conductor can be bought.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.S.MC 40000

#5 Tarallucci (8/1) – Trainer Raymond Handal is 19% with a +$1.09 ROI 1st off the claim this year. She also is stretching out to a route after two sprints and gets a rider upgrade to Rosario.

Spot Play Of the Day

Race 7: 1,6 / 2

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Saratoga

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Horses and jockeys in a race at Saratoga Race Course, viewed from behind.

The Conductor’s play of the day yesterday came back a nice 25/1 for an ice cold double at Saratoga (Suck It). He then couldn’t hit the broad side of the barn at Del Mar, but the Conductor will take it. He likes a bunch of nice prices on today’s Saratoga card, let’s get the train into 2nd gear. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 75k

#2 Get Smokin (8/1) – Whenever Castellano hops aboard a debut runner for a low % barn, the horses tend to outrun their odds. The Conductor will key him in the exacta and trifecta.

#3 Frosted Rose (6/1) – She was well bet in her debut and showed a strong finish despite a troubled trip. She adds blinkers today and Rosario hops aboard.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.Alw 25000s

#4 Lady’s Island (3/5) – The Conductor can’t see her losing.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. MC 50000

#9 Feeling It (8/1) – The Conductor has a feeling that Kentucky Shippers will continue to run well on the dirt, even from Ellis Park.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.S. MC 40000

#1 Ideational (5/2) – Chad Brown.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 30000n2L

#12 Avocado Toast (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she pressed a hot pace and was just nailed at the wire vs similar in her comeback race. She is quick enough early to be in a good spot going into the turn.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. Clm 16000n2L

#3 Gray Nile (2/1) – The Conductor doesn’t know why he was so bad last time, but if that race didn’t exist, he’d be 3/5 in here. The big class drop and switch to Saez will wake him up.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.S.OC 40000n2x

#3 Broken Border (3/1) – She’s exiting a nice victory and is now 3rd off the layoff. Trainer Jason Servis is 12/25 with a +$2.37 ROI with horses moving from two sprints to a route this year.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

*Never a Doubt Chad Brown Leg Lock of the Day #5 My Sister Nat (6/5) – 2nd time in the US, she’s the class of the field.

saratoga

Race 9: 1 ¾ Mile. Birdstone Stakes 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Third Day (8/1) – Dropping out of graded stakes company at Saratoga and switching back to dirt where he’s run his best, his late pace figures suggest the added distance will suit him well.

saratoga

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.Mdn 78k

#6 Zechariah (12/1) – Coming in off the layoff after being clipped, he’s taken money in each start and has shown ability. Graham Motion brings geldings back ready to run.