Belmont Park Sunday Picks — May 14, 2023 | Mother’s Day Full Card Handicapping

A winning horse adorned with flowers in the Belmont Park winner's circle surrounded by jubilant people celebrating the victory.

2/4 Saturday with two 2/1 winners and a 10/1 2nd keeps the train moving in the right direction. Let’s finish the  weekend strong at Belmont and head into Preakness week in 5th gear. Happy Mothers’ Day Mom, see you at the track. Skip.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 30000n2L

#3 Proven Hope (6/1) – This gelding took big step forward in his first start routing on the turf last time. He didn’t have the easiest trip, bumped and checked a few times, 3wide on the turn, and still got the job done. The Conductor thinks he’s found the surface and distance he’s wanted all along.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Nightsaber (9/2) – 1st off the claim last time, this filly ran well making an early move into a quick pace and was run down late. Now she shortens in distance and makes her 2nd start for the De Paz at Belmont. She will likely improve off that last effort, since she came from a 0% barn.

Belmont

The Conductor wishes he had more for you passengers, but there aren’t any other horses on the card that stand out. Don’t blame him, blame Belmont. Do some work for yourself for once. Skip.

Belmont Park Saturday Picks — May 13, 2023 | Peter Pan Stakes Day Best Bets

Keeneland Picks

Boom. Lady of Thoroton at 11/1 and Reflexivity at 6/1 down Belmont’s throat latch Friday.

Belmont

We needed a big day and got it. The Conductor is rearing to go Saturday…and then he saw the card. There are only a handful of quality races. The Peter Pan is a great race, but other than that this card stinks for a Saturday. Whatever, we’ll make do. Let’s Ride

Race 5: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) G1 Man o’ War Stakes

#2 Warren Point (9/5) – The Conductor hates chalk, but this looks like easy pickings for Godolphin and Appleby. This is a very weak American group for a Grade 1. The rich get richer.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. G3 Peter Pan Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Arcangelo (10/1) – This colt is steadily progressing and and his maiden breaker last time caught the Conductor’s eye. He didn’t have the best dirt trip and blew by the heavy favorite with ease. He’s a little goofy and has a ton of upside. He should have beaten Louisiana Derby winner Kingsbarn two back with a cleaner trip as well. If Pletcher or Chad were his trainer, he’d be 4/1. The Conductor will happily take his inflated odds at Belmont.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) S.Alw 80000n1x

#7 Twenty Six Black (4/1) – This is a wide open allowance race and you could make a case for many. The one horse in this field that could romp is this colt. He was loaded behind horses until the thee final 1/8th of a mile and still got the job done. He won by a neck, but his gallop out was thunderous.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 62500n1x

#10 Juniper’s Mood (8/1) – There are some salty fillies in this race, but this is the one price the Conductor finds interesting. She was very rank early in the Florida Oaks and spent the first turn fighting Paco. She wasted a ton of energy early and the Conductor was shocked she held on for 3rd. The Conductor likes the rider switch to Castellano today and this filly has upside.

Belmont Park Friday Picks — May 12, 2023 | Full Card Value Plays

Belmont Park

The Conductor rarely blames jockeys, so you know what he’s about to do. Rosario’s ride on Keen Heir Thursday was as bad as it gets on dirt. She was miles the best and cost Mr. Ductor bundles of coal. After that, Shinsun was short in the stretch and Belmont Park had the audacity to scratch the Conductor’s kill shot, Chess Spectacular, in the finale. Can’t draw up a worse way to start the racing week. Whatever, onto Friday. Skip.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.Clm 25000

#6 Spicy Margarita (5/1) – Shipping in from Laurel, she tried the turf for the first time last race and adored it. She was on the inside in a duel and drew off with ease in the stretch. This is a pretty weak claiming field at Belmont and it looks ripe for to steal it on the front end. Gate to wire.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 50000s

#8 Lady of Thoroton (8/1) – Making her first start off the bench las time she showed nice 4-wide move on the turn. Now making her 2nd start as a 4-year-old, the Conductor projects a step forward. She’ll hit the board at a square price.

#10 Frosty Invasion (15/1) – She’s been terrible on dirt, but switching to turf last time she ran her eyeballs out. She was  slammed at start, made an early 4-wide move on the turn, and still won easily. This isn’t a deep allowance field and the Conductor can see her lighting up the tote.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 90k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 Reflexivity (8/1) – She ran much better than it looks in her debut at Saratoga last summer. She chased the pace 3-wide and uncovered entire turn and didn’t completely fade late. Now she returns as a 4-year-old for top connections and gets Lasix for the first time. In a maiden race where many passengers will spread, the Conductor’s money will be on her nose to hit the wire first.

Belmont

Belmont Park Thursday Picks — May 11, 2023 | Full Card Contenders

A large crowd gathered at a horse racing event, featuring diverse attendees in various outfits and styles.

0/3 Sunday in the Conductor’s return to Belmont was not what he envisioned. He’s getting back in the swing of NYRA, but he’s taken copious notes from Aqueduct. Tread lightly the first week or two until the Conductor gets a firm grasp on the turf and dirt. Then hold on to dear life. The train will be humming before you can say skip. Skip.

Race 5: 1 Mile. Clm 40000n2L

#5 Keen Heir (8/1) – Shipping in from Keeneland 1st off the claim, he ran a solid 3rd sprinting last time behind a next out winner. He’s been working well since and adds blinkers today for the first time. There is very little early speed in this race and he should get an ideal trip on the lead or up close to a moderate pace. This boy looks Keen to steal it.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Alw 50000s

#7 Shinsun (8/1) – He’s a deep closer, so a lot has to go right. However, there looks to be a quick early pace and the Conductor thinks he’s the most talented runner in the field. He ran really strong late pace figures last year and had a couple of brutal trips. He broke is maiden on debut at Belmont at this distance too, so the layoff is no concern. At a square price the Conductor will take a shot.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) MC 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #13 Chess Spectacular (6/1) – The Conductor is really hoping this colt draws in. In his first start on the grass last time, he had a bad turf trip. He traveled 3-wide and uncovered on both turns and still made a nice move entering the stretch. He’ll get a terrible post if he draws in, but this group is much weaker than the bunch he faced last time. The Conductor will key him at a square price.

Belmont

Belmont Park Sunday Picks — May 7, 2023 | Post-Derby Full Card Handicapping

A horse with a jockey in red gear standing on the dirt racetrack at Belmont Park.

The Conductor is exhausted after yesterday. After review, Derma actually ran a really good 6th after missing the break completely. That’s racing sometimes, but that doesn’t pay the bills. Passengers go back to their normal lives and the Conductor gets back in the lab. To Belmont Park we go, Skip.

Race 4: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 90k

#6 Certified Loverboy (15/1) – This colt ran well sprinting at Saratoga last summer. Then he showed grit in the slop going a mile. Now he returns off the layoff stretching out on turf for the first time. There isn’t any early speed in this race and the Conductor is hoping to send him right to the front. He’s expecting big effort out of this Loverboy at a big number.

Belmont Park

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 32000

#5 Alpine Queen (5/1) – There is no other early pace in this Belmont sprint and she’ll be all alone on the lead. With mediocre runners behind her, the Conductor will bet they won’t catch her.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) F. License Fee Stakes

#4 Minaun (15/1) – #12 Star Devine (3/1) is the rightful favorite in this race and Minaun ran well exiting the same race. She bobbled at the break and spotted the field multiple lengths. She rallied well and made up significant ground in the stretch. At 5x the price she’s improving and has a chance to light up the tote.