Category: Videos

Horse racing video breakdowns from The Pony Conductor — race replays, stakes previews, and visual handicapping that shows the trips and angles behind the picks.

Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Play at Keeneland

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keeneland

There wasn’t much good yesterday at Keeneland after the lock got home. We need prices Conductor! Let’s Ride.

 

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. MC 30000

#4 Lovesomuch (9/2) – Not much to like in this group, he has upside switching back to dirt.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 20000n2L

#4 Tally Ho (3/1) – She looks like a standout.

Race 3: 7 Furlongs. F.MC 20000

#5 Hassle (20/1) – She has early speed in a race devoid of pace and this group is weak.

Race 4: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 85000n3x

#4 Shahroze (3/1) – He’s getting better with every start and was very impressive in win last out.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 40000n2L

#4 Hoptown Honey (12/1) – Her figures fit and she loves to hit the board. The Conductor will key her underneath in the exacta and tri.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. Clm 20000n2L

#2 Hollywood Strike (5/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he’s another one that doesn’t like to win but a great key underneath with a sprinkle on top.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 83000n2x

#1 Closer Still (8/1) – This girl will go guns blazing on the front end. Hoooolllldddd!!!!!

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. OC 75000n1x

#10 Distant Shore (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he’s working well and getting better with each start.

Race 9: 1½ Mile. (Turf) G2 Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Tiz a Slam (15/1) – He got in great form last summer and has big races to run back to.  The Conductor wants him on the lead.

keeneland

Race 10: 6½ Furlongs. Mdn 79k

*Never a Doubt Chad Brown Lock #1 Highest Honors (3/1) – Word on the street at Keeneland is that he’s the goods.

keeneland

The Conductor’s Arkansas Derby Day Plays at Oaklawn Park

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Horses starting a race from the starting gate at Oaklawn Park with spectators in the background.

Another lock of the day winner for the Conductor was nice, but we need prices.  Let’s find a few hogs down in Arkansas. Arkansas Derby Day, Let’s Ride.

 

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 16000n1x

#1A Ransomed (7/2) – She ran well at this level last time.  3rd off the layoff, she’ll get the job done today.

Race 2: 1 3/16 Mile. Alw 10000s

#1A The Rouge Diesel (15/1) – He closed into a slow pace for a good 3rd last start.  The Conductor will mainly key him underneath in the exacta and tri.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. Alw 16000s

#4 Mines Made Up (12/1) – 1st off the claim for high % connections, he loves to win and his early pace figs make him competitive.

Race 4: 6 furlongs. 500k Grade 3 Count Fleet H.

#4 Whitmore (1/1) – He’s the class of the field.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 100k

#3 Unsweet Tea (6/1) – She had a a troubled trip and was cooked in a hot early pace last start. She showed real ability in her debut.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. OC 75000n1x

#7 Rowayton (9/5) – Cutting back to a sprint, the others don’t stand a chance.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Rocknroll Rocket (10/1) – 1st off the claim and a 1st time gelding, he shortens in distance and the Conductor likes the confidence to step him back up in class.

Arkansas Derby

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 50000n2x

#1 Ike (5/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he’ll be fit today and has run multiple races that give him a big chance in here.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Oaklawn H.

#7 Quip (4/1) – 2nd race as a 4-year old and 2nd off the layoff, he has a major early pace edge over this group.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 16000n1x

#5 Single Gem (6/1) – He was very impressive in his blowout win last start.  He set a hot pace and still finished strongly.

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Arkansas Derby Grade I

*Never a Doubt Bob Baffert Lock of the Day #1 Improbable (8/5) – 2nd off the layoff, he’s working well, and the Conductor sees him putting on a show today.  He’ll be your Derby favorite after this race.

Arkansas Derby

 

Race 12: 1 1/16 Mile. Mdn 95k

#8 Verve’s Humor (7/2) – His last race was the best of the bunch and Mike Smith hops aboard.

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Keeneland

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Let’s keep the train rolling at Keeneland. Let’s Ride

 

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 40000n2L

#5 Three Twins (8/1) – He dominated a 12-horse field last start and is bred to be better on the grass.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.OClm 10000

#9 Kalispell (5/1) – Winner of 3 of her last 4 starts, she got cooked setting a hot pace going a mile last start. She’ll be tough on the cutback.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 30000

#7 Yes I’s a Miller (6/1) – She just missed in her debut and showed good fight.  Going 22 flat on synthetic is very quick.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 81000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Bluegrass (8/1) – Dropping out of stakes company, his was only beaten a length last time closing into a slow pace. He has a thunderous late kick.

Keeneland

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. Mdn 79k

#9 Unicorn (4/1) – He made an early move into a scorching pace last race.  He takes the blinkers off today.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. OC 80000n3x

#1 Copper Town (2/1) – Cutting back to a sprint, he’ll put on a show.

Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Limestone Turf Sprint

#10 Stillwater Cove (5/1) – She’s had legitimate excuses in her last two, she has the most talent in the field.

Race 8: 1 Mile. OC 62500n2x

#4 Telekinesis (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he made an early move into a hot pace last time. The Conductor loves him.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 Maker’s Mark Mile

*Never a Doubt Stew Lock of the Day #4 Delta Prince (7/2) – Grade 1 stakes race on a Friday? What a treat. Getting back to his best distance, the Conductor loved his effort in the Pegasus turf, making a big early move into a hot pace.  Afterwards, the Conductor can’t wait to celebrate his victory tonight.

Keeneland

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 79k

#10 Sail On (5/1) – Favored in her Keeneland debut, she was bumped at the break and still showed good early speed. She’s also bred to be a good one.

Throat Shot Thursday at Keeneland

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A large group of people posing together outdoors, some holding drinks and making gestures.

Opening day at Keeneland, the most beautiful place the Conductor’s eyes have ever seen. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 4½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 60k

#4 Quality H Two O (6/1) – Three sharp works for a barn that can surprise with 1st time starters. Trainer Teresa Connelly is 14% with a +1.15 ROI debuting runners this year.

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. F.OC 20000

*Never a Doubt Opening Day Lock #3 Honey Bunny (6/5) – They won’t beat her.

Keeneland

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. MC 30000

#3 Watch Cairo (8/1) – Stretching out for the 1st time, he’s lightly raced and has been well bet in his starts. He’s adding blinkers today and has also been clipped.

Race 4: 6½ Furlongs. OClm 10000

#3 Zaevion (5/1) – 2nd of the layoff, he won well last start and winning was no easy task at Oaklawn this meet.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 83000n2x

#5 Frankincense (20/1) – Steadily progressing and a winner of two in a row, he’s run even better than it looks closing into slow paces.  The Conductor will key him in the trifecta.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. F.OC 75000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Mo Gayle (12/1) – Any winner on debut for Dallas Stewart has talent.  Stretching out today after two sprints, the Conductor loves her.

Keeneland

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Palisades Turf Sprint Stakes

#11 Strike Silver (12/1) – He had a brutal trip in the BC Juvenile trip last start. His win at Keeneland two back made the Conductor a fan for life.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. F.Clm 20000n2L

#8 Tally Ho (4/1) – She showed guts last race winning a gutter war stretch duel.

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Aqueduct

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Silhouette of a cowboy kneeling beside a horse with a cross in the background.

With Belmont coming around the corner and California in shambles, the Conductor is going back to his roots.  The Conductor needs to reset.  New York racing is what built him. Aqueduct time, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 12500

#1 Elizabeth Nicole (6/5) – She’s got a major pace advantage against this group.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. S.MC 25000

#5 Dark Money (8/1) – 1st off the claim, he was well bet in his last start and had a terrible trip.  With a clean one he’s dangerous.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.Alw 70000n1x

*Never a Doubt Lock From God #1 Shimmering Moon (1/1) – She stands above these.

aqueduct

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. S.Mdn 60k

#7 Red Zinger (2/1) – Drawn well to the outside, this boy has more talent in his right knee than the rest of these.

Race 5: 1 Mile. F.Clm 10000

#4 Gobi (8/1) – Throw out her last race off a long layoff on a sloppy track, she fits.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. S.MC 50000

#1 Wilson’s Holiday (15/1) – Trainer Paul Barrow is 31% with a +$1.96 ROI debuting maiden claimers this year.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.Alw 50000s

#5 Trouble for Skylar (5/2) – This girl’s last race was very impressive.

Race 8: 1 Mile. F.S. 100K Maddie May Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Flush (5/1) – She’s got the most talent in this Aqueduct field.

aqueduct

Race 9: 6 F. F.S.OC 75000n1x

#8 Bustin Scones (15/1) – She’s working well and steadily improving. Low % connections are the only reason she’ll be a big price.

The Conductor’s Must Win to Survive Plays at Gulfstream Park

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An outdoor shopping center featuring palm trees and architectural structures under a dusk sky.

The Conductor does not want to play the ponies today.  He wants to suck his thumb and scream at the replay of the Tennessee “foul” at the end of the game.  But, he is the Conductor.  This is the cross he bears. He must get back on the horse not only for himself, but for his loyal passengers.  his is the life he chose. Gulfstream Park Time.

 

A graze of the leg? Gross. It also took him 7 seconds to inbound the ball………Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) MC 20000

#9 Art’s Table (8/1) – 3rd off the layoff, he showed good early speed last start and gets a rider upgrade to Louis Saez today.

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. S.OC 12500n1x

#2 Jalen Journey (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she crushed last start at Gulfstream and ran a very strong number.  She’s stepping up in class but has an early pace advantage in here.

Race 3: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 16000b

#6 Salsita Roja (5/2) – 1st off the claim for strong connections, she can scoot.

Race 4: 7 Furlongs. MC 35000

#6 Big Alex (6/1) – He’s making progress in each start and adds blinkers today.

Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 12500

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Royally Cool (5/1) – She set a blistering pace last time out at Gulfstream in a race that has come back very strong.  She’s the Conductor’s best bet of the day over 3/1.

gulfstream park

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) MC 50000

#1 All in Stew Out (6/1) – Drawn well to the inside 3rd off a layoff, he showed a strong late kick last start closing into a slow pace.

Race 7: 1 Mile. Clm 30000b

#6 Drop Kick (3/1) – The Conductor liked her last race on the grass and she figures to step forward on her preferred dirt surface.

Race 8: 1 3/16 Mile. 100k Skip Away Stakes

*Never a Doubt Friday Night Bottle Service Lock of the Day #7 Rocketry (5/2) – The switch to dirt has done this man good.  Lock.

gulfstream park

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) G3 Appleton Stakes

#2 Dr. Edgar (10/1) – This gelding is in great form and this isn’t the toughest Grade 3 you’ll ever see.  The Conductor thinks he can take the step up in class.

Race 10: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Orchid Stakes

#9 Santa Monica (1/1) – Clear class of the field. Can’t Lose.

Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 20000

#8 Abjure (4/1) – The Conductor doesn’t have a clue in this one.

The Conductor’s Prayers at Aqueduct and the Sunland Derby

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Exciting scene of horses racing at the Sunland Derby with jockeys in colorful silks and starting gate in the background.

The Conductor will never play Fair Grounds again. Sunland Derby time, Let’s Ride.

 

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. MC 20000

*Never a Doubt Sunday Night Scary Preventer But Not Really They Can’t Be Prevented Tonight Lock of the Day #3 Racing Raven (4/5) – Cutting back to a sprint, he obviously will beat this horrendous field.

Sunland Derby

Race 2: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 40000b

#3 Bootlegger (4/1) – 3rd off the layoff and dropping in class, he looks to be a new animal this year. His last two races give him every chance.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. S.Mdn 60k

#1 Holey Matrimony (9/2) – Debuting for a hot barn, this colt is well bred and working well.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 20000

#2 Give Me a Hug (3/1) – 2nd off the layoff and cutting back to a sprint this filly has been well bet vs much tougher.  Moreover, the Conductor needs a big hug after Vegas.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.OClm 75000

#6 Movie Score (5/1) – She was only beaten a length two starts back vs similar with a solid figure and Ryerson is 25% with a +$0.50 ROI this year 1st off the claim.

Race 6: 1 Mile. S.Mdn 60k

#6 Papa Jim (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff and stretching out for the 1st time he ran a very good 3rd last start with a tough trip.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. S.Alw 64000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Shamrock Kid (9/2) – He ran a huge fire last start in the slop. Additionally, he’s in good form and has a pace edge over this group. 9/2 would be stealing.

Sunland Derby

Race 8: 1 Mile. F.Alw 70000n1x

#8 Storm Rising (7/2) – She was bumped at the break and still demolished her competition in her debut. She has talent.

Race 9: 1 Mile. S.Clm 32000

#1 Oh K Funnybone (6/1) – He’s steadily progressing and stretching back out to a mile, where he has his lone win.

Sunland Park

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. G3 Sunland Park Derby

#2 Anotherwistafate (3/1) – #1 Much Gusto (8/5) is clearly the Baffert horse to beat, but he’ll likely go off at 2/5 in here.  This colt shipping in from Golden Gate will likely go off higher than 3/1 and the Conductor will take a swing with him.  He’s won three in a row going away in gate to wire fashion in San Francisco.  For anyone who pays attention to Golden Gate, its impossible to go gate to wire. He has potential.

Oaklawn Park Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers

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A group of horses and jockeys racing on a dirt track with spectators in the background.

Hope you passengers fired away on the Derby prep races like the Conductor ordered.  Back to full card plays today and back to Oaklawn where the Conductor gets all dirt races and big fields.  Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Clm 16000n2L

#5 Just For Casey (3/1) – In a race devoid of pace, the Conductor sees her taking them all the way around again. Gate to Wire.

Race 2: 5½ Furlongs. F.MC 16000

#7 Princess Z Ohsix (5/2) – 1st off the claim for trainer Kenny Smith and 2nd off the layoff she has good early speed and was only beaten a length vs tougher last time. She’ll win today.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Clm 30000n2L

#5 Turkmenistan (9/2) – She’s run back to back closing thirds at this level, but both times she hasn’t had much pace to run at. She’ll get a better setup today.

Race 4: 5½ Furlongs. Clm 8000

#11 We Did (20/1) – His race two starts back makes him very competitive at this level and he loves to win races.  The Conductor will key him at a big price in the exacta and trifecta.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. S.Alw 84000n2L

1/1A Entry (3/1) – Both entries have a big chance the Conductor will take the two.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Mdn 83k

#4 Goodbye Earl (9/2) – Stretching out at Oaklawn for the 1st time, the Conductor like to see two sprints before a route.  She’s exiting races that have come back live.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Clm 10000b

*Double Barreled Shotgun Shots of the Day #7 Because It’s Time (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff and dropping in class, he has the back class to crush this field.

#8 Spa Shackalacka (9/2) – Shipping in from Santa Anita, he’s gutting back to a sprint, dropping in class and posted strong works over the surface.

oaklawn park

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. OC 62500n1x

*Never a Doubt Lock From God #4 Jack Van Berg (2/1) – Cutting back to a spring after setting blistering fractions going longer, he’s the one to beat.

oaklawn park

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. S.Mdn 83k

#11 Silver City Blues (8/1) – He’s working well, and his sire wins at 19% with 1st time starters. Trainer Lon Wiggins is also 19% with a +$2.38 ROI with debut runners this year.

Fair Grounds: Trachea Kick Tuesday

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Horses racing on a grassy track with spectators in the background at a racecourse.

A 7/2 winner and a couple of decent prices running 2nd wasn’t terrible, but not a great Monday for the Conductor.  The train will tack on plenty of miles this week with Fairgrounds running on Tuesday.  Somebody has to pay for coal, the train doesn’t fuel itself.  Let’s give the Fair Grounds a boot right to the teeth, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.MC 30000

#3 Simple Pleasure (5/1) – Going two sprints to a route, she’ll try the grass for the first time for top connections.  She has upside, while the rest are proven losers.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. S.MC 12500

#8 Don’t Tell Stacy (9/2) –

Race 3: 1m70yds. F.OC 50000n1x

#5 Furiously Fast (3/1) – 2nd off the layoff and stretching out for the first time, her pace figures suggest she’ll like the added distance.  She’ll get a good trip on a slow pace.

Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.OC 35000b

*Never a Doubt Jet Blue #4 Flashy Brew (5/2) – The switch to turf should not be an issue, she’s been dominant in her last two races. The Conductor needs to buy a plane ticket today.

Fair Grounds

 

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 80000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Hawaakom (8/1) – Dropping to this level last time out, he ran a good 4th closing into a tepid pace.  He should run his best in his 3rd start off a layoff today and has the back class to get the job done.  The Conductor will key him in the exacta.

Fair Grounds

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 42000b

#2 Take That for Data (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he’s steadily progressing at Fair Grounds and ran a very strong late pace figure last start.  He should get a good ground-saving trip.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 80000b

#6 Salt Bae (7/2) – This filly looks to get the same winning trip on an easy lead.

Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mardi Gras Stakes

#6 Oxford Comma (3/1) – This girl has real speed and loves to win.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 43k

#6 Zapper Van Winkle (7/2) – In race that came back strong, he ran a huge 2nd closing into a slow pace.  With natural progression he’ll get the job done.

Stay Hot Conductor! Sabbath Sunday’s Prayers at Santa Anita

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A cowboy in a long coat standing on a wooden platform beside a horse inside a rustic barn with arched windows.

11/1, 4/5, 3/1, 6/5, and 4/5 winners yesterday left Santa Anita gasping for air.  The train is flying at full speed, get out the way. Let’s Ride.

 

Race 1: 1 Mile. Mdn 55k

*Never a Doubt Sunday Night Scaries Preventer Lock of the Day #5 Victory Element (8/5) – The Conductor likes the stretch out and he has the most talent in the field.  It would be fantastic if he stays the 2nd choice.

Santa Anita

Race 2: 1 Mile. MC 30000

#6 Midnight Roamer (4/1) – Drawn well to the outside, he has the figures to win and the Conductor likes the added blinkers.

Race 3: 6½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 50000s

#3 Sheza Chattykat (4/1) – She’s 1/1 down the hill and has a speed advantage over this group.  Gate to wire.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.Alw 20000s

#3 Misstressofthenight (7/2) – This filly ran a good 2nd last race vs similar, contesting a hot pace going longer.  The cutback to a sprint is the difference.

Race 5: 1 Mile (Turf). S.Mdn 55k

#2 Spanish Channel (8/1) – The Conductor liked his last race and is looking for a price in this wide open race.

Race 6: 1 Mile. Clm 40000

#5 Avanti Bello (7/2) – The Conductor has always been a fan of this old man.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Tequila Joe (5/1) – 2nd off a long layoff, he takes a big drop in class and should get a perfect setup today with plenty of pace to run at.

Santa Anita

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. F.S. Spring Fever Stakes

#3 S Y Sky (6/5) – She’ll dominate this Santa Anita field on the front end.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) MC 50000

#7 Super Terrific (6/1) – He’s working well off a long layoff and will try routing on the grass for the 1st time.  He’s dropping in class for solid connections.